Structurally, corn price broke out of the little triangle on Friday. Price found a strong buying support at the mini uptrend channel bottom & 50ema means we going to have more upside. The next immediate target would most probably lies in filling that GAP left behind in mid-July. Ability to fill the gap and break 394, i would expect strong downtrend resistance around 400-405'
Comments
dp
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Beautiful.
jangseohee
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dp stands for Decision Point?
dp
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No. Historically, I wanted to find the short nick, all the combinations were taken, and I used abbreviation of my post-grad nickname.
jangseohee
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Just a few mm before reaching the target or beyond :-)
dp
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Nice forecast, jangseohee. Congratulations!
jangseohee
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thanks to my favorite Channel (80%) of correct
qualitatively probability of having this good trade increase
but quantitatively i cant explain how 33.333% can become 100%
Took 25% profit at 394'
but it is weird, seems like commodities as a whole is moving up slowly, preempt of inflation?
dp
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"...but quantitatively i cant explain how 33.333% can become 100%..." -- can you please explain what do you mean by that?
What are you expectations now -- return of the price to the tip of the symmetric triangle?
jangseohee
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Hi DP, what i mean is the probability of going up is 33.3333%, but if the price goes in my anticipating, isnt it looks like a probability of 1?
It has FILLED that purple gap and i took another 50 % profit when it hit 398.2'. By price action it is coming back to 395' to test for support, having that means final target of 400-401' which is where the Major bears are ambushing,
failing the 395' means price will look for ~390 to test for uptrend channel support.
Hence if successfully break out of that resistance, price will not fall back to tip of symmetric triangle for some time, but failing to break that resistance, price will somehow likely to go down again and fall to the tip
dp
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"...the probability of going up is 33.3333%, but if the price goes in my anticipating, isn't it looks like a probability of 1? " -- it is looking like 1 indeed, that's an emotional feeling. I want to get rid of such feelings and treat it just as one success event in the sequence of fails and wins.i she probability of going up is 33.3333%, but if the price goes in my anticipating, isnt it looks like a probability of 1?
Thanks for nice explanation of the expected PA.
jangseohee
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haha, ya self-deceiving probability of 1, mathematically just stay as 33.3333% :-)