Reversal in course. CORN (ZCH15) bear flagging below trend-line. Price projection (1st target) at 353.0 by 06Feb15.
Comments
againstthegrain
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thank you for sharing. I am still long from reversal at the 340 level back in Oct/Nov. Had profit at around 400's but still keeping 50% of my original position. I totally agree with your analysis for the short/mid run (although I am still bullish on the long term). My analysis at tradingview.com/e/WB27FYaN/ is similar and suggests an abc retracement ending close to 360. I have place an additional stop-loss at lows 360's in order to diminish my longs. I am fully stopped at around 330 when this market could deep badly.
Indicators in general are deteriorating fast, if DXY keeps strengthening AG commodities may plunge along with oil.
LEONES
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long at 340.0? incredible. Are you a position trader?
LEONES
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look at all the other grains..more dowside expected
againstthegrain
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Well not precisely at 340, but I started adding longs at 50% retracement of what (at that time) could be wave 2. I have based my decision on the termination of the previous wave 5 at 332 level by divergence on AWE oscillator between waves 3 and 5.
Adding position at a wave 2 retracement demands a stop-loss at levels around the beginning of wave 1. If you want to be more conservative and play on the safe-side the best thing to do is to add longs as soon prices break wave 1 (as you can see on the attached chart).
I am holding long as part of a long-term strategy. I usually recommend selling at the end of wave 5 and going short or neutral for possible abc retracement.
LEONES
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really good strategy - why are you not considering shorts at this point?
In fact I am, although corn has an historic support on the 300’s. So far, I am counting on the fact that what we have seen on October 1st 2014 is a reversal of the downward that started back in April. If that proves to be true, so then, what we are seeing now is an ABC correction of the previous impulse.
At this point, I have only a “safe” stop at the 320’s but will probably start build my short position if I get stopped. I just think it is too early for that. See the weekly chart here attached. I am still under the impression that what we are seeing is an ABC correction of a large downward impulse, but I could be wrong. This when good money management comes into play. I could not sleep without my stops.
Your long-term view for corn is very possible, especially when we have USD up and oil down on the proportion we are currently seeing. As I have been saying, AG commodities will not hold under this scenario.
Olu
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Hi L. I agree corn is going down but I think the pace will be faster. You are saying this commodity could correct 30$ in the next 5 months? I think if 375 goes we will have a H&S and that 330 could come quicker than june
LEONES
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Yes the 375 is important. Sorry I need to correct that was 06Feb (vertical line in the chart)
Indicators in general are deteriorating fast, if DXY keeps strengthening AG commodities may plunge along with oil.