This is going to be a quick one, purely from the fact that BITTREX:ZCLBTC has me utterly baffled right now!
The technical:
48 EMA is waaaaaay below 192 EMA, but it's leveling out!
As can be seen with the dual offset bollingers, were seeing some serious consolidation.
MACD & SSRSI have both formed new swing lows
Weve broken through S1 & S2, will test R1 within a few hours
And now for what really has me scratching my head, the Fundamentals!!!
Folks, I'll be real...this is plain weird.
It's february 27th 1:45PM EST The Bitcoin Private fork is taking its snapshot sometime tomorrow (block height has yet to be announced). Never before have I seen a crypto in the 24 hours prior to a snapshot in this much of a slump. I suppose that the community response to the announced BTCP fork could simply be incredibly lackluster, but in my experience it's pretty likely that we will see a serious uptick in volume and an allout scramble for BITTREX:ZCLBTC sending the price for a pretty heavy rally.
Could this simply never happen and the current downtrend continues on its way? Sure, but I have serious doubts of such a flat response to a fork, no matter its community impact.
Remember though, if you just plan on riding a fork rally you should ALWAYS exit your position as soon as the snapshot is taken to avoid getting buried in the deluge of people offloading their coins post fork. If on the other hand you are actually taking advantage of the fork, HODL for dear life. It may take a day or two, but most coins recover post fork; it's just a matter of waiting for the sell off to finish.
*** Note that the MACD RSI crossover strategy I've written has the RSI hidden, and that the earning results are irrelevant as it used for cleaning up major trends NOT buys and sells. *** The dual Stochastic/Stochastic RSI source code can be found on my page if you're in need of a simple space saving indicator!
This analysis is meant for purely educational purposes, and whether you choose to trade on it or not is entirely on you! Remember, TA is neither investment advice nor a guaranteed science, but rather an informed attempt at prediction based of historical and emerging patterns!
Good luck and happy trading fellow cryptoheads!
Austin Doyle CTO Crypto Playhouse
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I want to point out that with a fork coming, this kind of price action is completely contrary to traditional flow. Looking at the 1hr chart a couple weeks back we can see a sudden plunge in price leading up to this point where you can clearly see things are rocketing off from.
I truly believe we may be looking at a few whales driving the price down in preparation for a pre-fork mass buy up. Its only been a couple hours since my original post and we're already up 8%!!!
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Now thats what I call a post fork sell off hahahaha
Also how come the price on ZCL dropped not spiked if everyone’s trying to get more BTCP? Don’t you need to have ZCL in a wallet for it to be converted to BTCP after the fork initiates? That’s what they explain on their site.
cryptoplayhouse
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@Ruvim18, Yes, you have to have the ZCL in a wallet to claim it post fork. The lead up to this with the price drop was baffling to me at first, but if you consider people not interested in BTCP that held ZCL it actually makes alot of sense if the ZCL team really is handing off the project. Either that or there were som major whales trying to push it down pre fork because they knew it would plummet further after the snapshot and theyre making a major buy up at crazy low prices in hopes of/creating a rally.
MRINTENGENT
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@cryptoplayhouse, so basically people that are holding ZCL that don’t believe in the fork are just selling? And the volume you speak of do you think it’s safe to buy in the dip right now of ZCL at around $30 then ride till 100? Or it might never see a rally like that in the near feature?
cryptoplayhouse
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@Ruvim18, Most people that didnt ride the fork already sold. Reality is ZCL may never rally again, I'm just holding because at $25 now it doent make much of an impact if i hold or let it go so I'm just riding it out.
cryptoplayhouse
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@Ruvim18, In fact if you check the volume you'll notice that theres higher volume now than during the major decrease of the weeks leading up to the fork.
MRINTENGENT
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So what’s bitcoin private? and is that something risky to get into or what info do you have on it that can indicate it to be a valuable investment for short term right now?
cryptoplayhouse
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@Ruvim18, Well realistically theres no way to get it right now unless you went in on the fork. Just google the project and check out their site, theyre basically fusing zcl privacy features into the bitcoin blockchain. If you werent in on the fork you'll have to wait atleast two days but probably more like a week until its listed on exchanges.
MRINTENGENT
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Hey man! Nice work. Can you share some detailed info on what’s going on with this currency? Like the fork and how it’s effecting the price, and if you assume there will be an upcoming heavy rally after this massive sell off and the odds of it collapsing further and the indicators of that. Also if it starts to shoot up what would be some good indicators for re-entry Thanks
cryptoplayhouse
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@Ruvim18, No problem!
So essentially at 12pm EST the Bitcoin Private snapshot was taken for both ZCL and BTC.
Theres alot of murky business with this one due to issue's from the Bittrex team, ranging from wallet withdraw issues to a very late announcement of supporting the airdrop.
To pile on to the issue they locked down the deposits so everyone that went off exchange for the snapshot got absolutely screwed when the market reopened with an insane gap and only people that were still on bittrex were able to offload.
I fell partial victim to that and have both ZCL on bittrex and on electrum lol
The reality is that the Z classic future is murky at best because it appears the team is pretty much shifting over to concentrating on the bitcoin private project and handing ZCL over to community development. So realistically it could tank out, but then again community devchains have held strong before, and ZCL did spawn zencash, plummet to similar levels, and recover.
I do however believe that because the gap open was so extreme and so many people got stuck still holding their zcash in dedicated wallets that things will go up atleast a little bit over the next few days.
Realistically though its all a toss up right now! Forks are a major gamble and I went in heavy on this one because I believe Bitcoin Private will hit the exchanges pretty strong and I will likely be able to cover my current losses while retaining both a bit of ZCL and BTCP.
ibby93
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@cryptoplayhouse "If on the other hand you are actually taking advantage of the fork, HODL for dear life."
Why do you think that ZCL will still be valuable post-fork? It was worth 0.0003 before the announcement, wouldn't it go back to that price?
The project isn't even going to be maintained anymore.