Today marks a month since I called ZCL at 30k sats (currently 1000k sats) Since my chart was deleted, I decided to copy/paste my rationale from the deleted chart. I believe it gives decent insight on how to evaluate coins, and utilize market cycles. I also added Meta Comments to discuss conditions that have changed since my analysis.
I was a little off in my prediction; called 2000%, price went ~4000% up That crazy price hike was due to the Bitcoin Private Fork, a coin that could potentially match the market cap of coins like Bitcoin Cash. Meaning a potential 10-20x from current price.
However, this trade is inherently risky! Coin has pumped a ton in a short amount of time. Keep in mind that if anything bad happens, we could take a pretty heavy fall. And with the fork delayed to March, people are already a little testy. Potential reward is huge though, so I will risk a little capital for it ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trade Details
Small position at 990k, Orders at 880k, 760k, 655k Targets: 1250k, 1600k, 2000k Stop Loss: 540k - A lot less support under this zone. Could freefall at that point.
This is a mid-long hold. Coin should run up closer to March We may see lower prices, but if alts party, then we could be near the bottom now Super Guppy indicator (colorful waves, 2 groups of EMA averages) showing a buy signal. Slow EMA support coincides with 1.618 FIB line.
We want to come above the 1.618 FIB line and use as support. However, we are currently in a bull flag leading us below this line. Look for breakout above purple line for bullish movement, or break below the green support (~875k) for travel down to bottom of bull flag (~760k) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Original Analysis, with Meta Comments (12/22/17): It appears that alt season is upon us. Have you noticed that a lot of coins have recently pumped in value? Have you noticed how mainstream crypto is becoming? All that new money pouring into bitcoin 1.21% , is trickling into alts. (MetaComment: A lot of trickling has happened since this analysis. Still bullish on alts, but nowhere near as much . That was practically bottom of the market cycle. We seem to be somewhere in the middle now)
Zoom out on the charts of your favorite coins (1D to 1W charts). See all that room for growth? See how early we are in some potentially massive pumps? Use these long term views to hold your coins against most dumps. (MetaComment: While this is no longer true of all coins, there are still coins with this kind of potential. *Cough* ETC *Cough*)
"So many coins are out there! How do you even choose one?" Personally, I like to choose ones that have the most potential upside shown in charts. Then, I like to research the fundamentals of the coin in order to make sure it'll be around in the future.
One coin that I found from this process is Zclassic. Chart speaks for itself. There's over 2000% (That's a 20x on your investment) remaining to reach its old price.
Coin was left for dead. Thrown away by the dev team. Which explains why the price has been plummeting since July.
What changed? A mostly new dev team came in to revive the coin. The team is big too, including the likes of Rhett Creighton - a developer that has contributed to Bitcoin 1.21% Core code, and created WhaleCoin. In addition the team has announced that they will continue to expand their team, and will rebrand Rebranding has been known to pump a coin's value as the event draws near. (MetaComment: Ironically, Zclassic no longer fits the criteria described above, as it has gone beyond ATH. Therefore, I see Zclassic as inherently more risky than coins still below ATH. The potential high reward of a Bitcoin Cash market cap, however, gives this a decent risk to reward ratio.
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Apologies for the essay above. It's valuable for me to type out my thoughts and plan on a trade. Hopefully it helps those of you seeking to learn.
I included a close up of the bull flag on a 4hr time frame. We're already falling fast into the next support (880k). I highlighted where this support comes from, showing that it should be strong due to 4 prior confirmations. Next level down (~760k) is bottom of the flag (purple support)
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Had a beautiful bounce at 880k, where my order barely managed to fill. Support line now has 5 confirmations vs the 4 above. (2 as resistance, 3 as support)
We appear to be consolidating between this support line (880k) and the 1.618 FIB line (1000k) Hopefully we can break above this line soon, otherwise we could be heading to the next support down.
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And we have liftoff! ZCL just broke the mid-channel pretty convincingly. I'm planning on taking some profit at top channel line (~119k)
If we break through there, we could be headed back to ATH. Volume is a little low at this point though, so I'm not convinced this will happen.
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Zclassic just smashing resistances left and right! Not terribly impressed with the volume, but I still think this thing can go up to test ATH. ZCL may need to test support on its old resistance (top purple line) before completing its moon mission.
Took a little profit at 121k because I like to stick to my plan.
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Classic old resistance turned into support. 1 Hour support confirmation is a pretty bullish indicator in my book. This makes more confident that we're on our way to challenge ATH resistance.
What do you think about it now? I expected zcl to moonshot, but it's not moving... I'm afraid it can go back down :(
rony.kris
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This is a great analysis. Lot of learning for me from it. However, they're is one thing that I am little confused about - what is this unit you have been using eg: 800k,900k,etc. Were you referring to volumes?
ecoinamist
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@rony.kris,
I am referring to satoshis.
A satoshi is 100 millionth of a bitcoin... so 1 satoshi = 0.00000001 BTC
When I say 800k, I mean 800,000 satoshis (sats for short)
800k sats = .00800000 btc
900k sats = .00900000 btc
1000k sats = .01000000 btc
Most traders that are trying to accumulate more bitcoin prefer to work in satoshi units. While USD pairs are still useful, if your goal is to gain more btc you should work with btc pairs.
Keep in mind that the value of an alt can go up simply because Bitcoin has gone up in value.
Alts can simultaneously go up in USD value, but go down in BTC value.
So, while the USD chart may show that your trade was successful (in USD), it is entirely possible that it was a terrible trade because it has gone down in BTC value.
In the case of above, you would have made more money just holding Bitcoin rather than the alt.
Hope that clarifies it. Please feel free to follow up if anything is unclear.
And that's definitely not a bad idea.
880k is a decent entry in this zone. Below that, next entry would be ~760k.
May not break to that level, but below that our next support 650k. Then 500k. Then freefall lol