ZCL is currently sitting in the $90-$110 range, down from an all time high of $123 on 12/29/17.
This is the first bitcoin fork that you can receive the forked coin (BTCP) for holding a coin (ZCL) other than Bitcoin.
Investors will buy ZCL before the fork for two different reasons: to accumulate more BTCP (due to the large difference in price between BTC and ZCL despite the same 1:1 coin distribution ratio), and to take profit on the price increase that ZCL will see in the coming weeks (as we saw with NXT before the IGNIS airdrop).
This analysis is going to rely much more on fundamentals than TA. The previous increases from less than $10 to $50, and from $50 to $120 happened solely due to news regarding the BTCP fork. Looking back at the NXT/IGNIS airdrop, I think most people would agree that external events caused the majority of price action, not investors acting on TA.
NXT saw a rise from $0.06 to $2.00 prior to the airdrop, and then we saw a sharp decline from the peak of $2.00 to $1.00 just before the airdrop, and another sharp decline from $1.00 to the $0.50-$0.70 range immediately after the snapshot occurred at block 1,636,363.
What I could see being different in this scenario is more support as the price reaches new all time highs because BTCP's supply (21MN) is significantly lower than the supply of IGNIS (1BN), making a much higher potential price after the fork as we saw with previous BTC forks. Additionally, as I mentioned, this is the first ever Bitcoin fork that will be distributed to holders of a currency other than Bitcoin. Due to the large disparity in price between BTC and ZCL, savvy investors who want to accumulate BTCP will move their funds from BTC to ZCL prior to the fork.
Other events to look out for that will likely result in a ZCL price increase are exchanges announcing their support for the fork and updates from the dev team. For example, when Bittrex announced support for the NXT/IGNIS airdrop a week before the airdrop, we saw a short-term spike in NXT's price. Considering there is no official fork/snapshot date announced yet, I think it's safe to say that we are still in the early stages of the fork -- public awareness is still low.
Now let's put this into perspective: people dumped NXT heavily after the IGNIS airdrop, and the price plummeted from $2.00 to $0.57. NXT currently has a market cap of around 575MN at a price of $0.57. If ZCL reaches just HALF of NXT's market cap AFTER it got dumped down to $0.57, the price of ZCL will be around $160. If ZCL reaches NXT's market cap at the PEAK of its pump to $2.00 (market cap of 2.1BN), ZCL will be $1,160.
I encourage anyone to share their opinion on this. I think a lot of people are discouraged from buying right now because of how quickly this coin has grown since the beginning of December 2017, but it's important to remember how low the supply of this coin is (it's 121st by market cap right now at a price of $95).
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Expecting price action on or before January 8th -- the release date of the new wallet.
Price has continued to consolidate in the $90-$110 range. Every time it's upwards of $110 huge sell walls appear on Bittrex. Hang tight because as soon as the bots/whales accumulate enough and remove their sell walls there should be an upward movement.
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About to test ATH at $130. A successful breakout will likely result in a new support area of $120-$140.
If $130 is tested and it fails to break through expect another drop into the $95-$110 range until more news is released or Bittrex allows more signups.
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Blew by $160 target today despite no additional news/updates about the fork. I'd strongly recommend holding until the official fork date is release and exchanges announce support for the fork before selling.
Looks like the price is settling in the $170-$180 range with support in the $140-$150 range.
$400-$500 before the fork is very realistic as of now.
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Downtrend has continued over the past 3 days along with the rest of the market, large sell orders on Bittrex seems to be price suppression. I hope you all are still holding because this seems to be another attempt from whales to shake the weak hands.
If the price tests $140 keep an eye out for a reversal. ZCL may follow market movements until rumors or more announcements.
Target for next uptrend is an ATH of $350-$400, support at $250-$300. Be patient!
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Breakout confirmed at $190 after up 14 period bollinger band was tested and broken.
Should settle above the $200 range at the lowest. Support will form 30% under the next peak if the price increases more than $150 during this run.
excellent analyisis.. despite NXT, ZCL will carry its value even after the fork
truond2
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Thanks for great analysis with insights on what we (might) expect. With that perspective and NXT being NXT and BTCP being a fork of bitcoin itself, it'd be interesting if ZCL didn't reach those NXT benchmarks (especially with higher overall market cap and likely buzz surrounding the next BTC fork. Bullish
BiffChain
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I agree, I came to the same conclusion and feel BTCP hasn't got much hype yet for a zk snarks bitcoin hybrid, specially with Etheruem trying to implement the same tech this year. Good comparison to NXT too.
oldmancrypto
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I have moved 25% of my BTC holding to ZCL. I did so to take advantage of the BTCP airdrop, I plan to hold onto them after the fork. Surely ZCL will drop after the fork though. Thanks for your analysis.
jldurga
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Thanks for your insights, i would like to add ZCL into my portfolio.
ThGSpot
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Your analysis seems very reasonable! You could've made it more optimistic, but I like your keep-it-real touch.
Seems we're still at the very beginning of it...
I was a part in the NXT fork and still awaiting my 20k Ignis from Bittrex. Which I will surely get soon.
You've convinced me in investing into this coin and its successor BTCP.
drewpinkerton
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@Thomas_Geens, Thanks! This is the first analysis I've posted here so I wanted to keep it conservative.
I also want to make it clear that I am not bullish about ZCL after the fork -- only that the price will rise until the snapshot happens. This is directly from the dev team's FAQ: "What is going to happen to ZCL after the hard fork? -- It will still exist, though we are unsure how its development will continue as of right now." Although the future of ZCL looks bearish after the snapshot, I still recommend holding ZCL until the snapshot happens to receive BTCP.
oldmancrypto
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@drewpinkerton, will you try to sell ZCL as quickly as possible after the fork?