The 3 trend lines that you can use to draw a downtrend line from the summer's highs across the last rally high are breaking today: 1. Using the closes - 2. Using the highs - 3. Using the "highest lows" - (an internal trend line) 4. CCI is turning back up from below -100 (11-day CCI) - 5. RgMov, my proprietary trendiness indicator that usually leads price, didn't make a new low with price, so it is indicating some internal strength here for Corn.
Two of the big reasons for the drop in corn, from my perspective, was that corn production had a rough start and then it picked up and simultaneously commercial hedgers were selling corn futures and put themselves heavily short the market right at the highs and have taken the market down since then. I don't know what will happen to corn production, nor do I know what the commercial hedgers are going to do with their positions, so I can only speculate on what the market is telling me using technical analysis. With that in mind, I like my odds here. I don't have a lot of risk, but I have a lot of upside. In that same vein, if I have a huge upside potential to downside risk, then I know my odds aren't going to be very high of a winning trade. Why? Because that's how markets work. You don't get free money handed to you from the market, but if you do, be very thankful and take it.
Regards,
Tim 9:48AM EST
Comments
xiiimik
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"if I have a huge upside potential to downside risk, then I know my odds aren't going to be very high of a winning trade." - very interesting comment. I see a lot of top traders posts about high R:R, but usually trends reverses at half-way to TP.