This analysis is for my own education, I am trying to learn the wyckoff method so please correct me if I am wrong.
Phase A:
We can clearly see the stopping of the previous down trend and the dominany supply. Preliminary support (PS) is very short lived and followed by continuation of selling climax (SC). We can see the Automatic Rally (AR) right after the SC. There is a secondary test which is successful but not quiet close to SC support, so there is less selling.
Phase B:
Price swings are wide and high volume throughout Phase B, which takes around 4 years. At times showing Signs of Strength (SOS) within the trade ranges (TRs).
Phase C:
I believe we are now in Phase C, with a strong pullback after some SOS. Price moves below Phase B trade ranges. Volume has been fairly low. We could call this area LPS - last point of support. I identify this zone to be a bear trap.
This can mark the beginning of a new uptrend soon.
The current crypto market conditions also support this analysis. If we see a sign of strength again soon, it could validate it.
Phase D: If this analysis is correct, we should see a dominance of demand over supply for Phase D to activate. Expect a price movement towards the top of the trade range.
Indicators:
TLL RSI - heavily oversold Money flow - shows sign of reversal but still not validated, we need to go above 0. Volume: Low
Trade active
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Market is gaining strength as expected. Keep following.
Trade active
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Had a Bitcoin maxi friend look into Zcash fundemantals and technical capabilities within its code the other day. He responded to me as; Zcash is miles ahead of Bitcoin, solved all the problems that Bitcoin has.
There is still lots of education to be made around this specific crypto. Once people realize how strong the underlying technology of Zcash is, and that this is the actual Satoshi Vision, we may really see the demand for it pick up.
However, let's focus on the technical price analysis for a the time being as it will help us identify the risk and benefit to hodl this crypto.
So far, so good. Market has been doing well trying to consolidate a bottom, and Zcash responded as expected. We need to see a sign of a bit more strength and come out of the current area soon. Let's keep following.
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Still closed above last point of support over the past few weeks.
Still confident about it being a bear trap. Lets keep on watching.
Trade active
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Holding tight. =)
Order cancelled
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I am very dissapointed with ZEC, unfortunately I am not willing to hold any longer. It seems that the foundation is losing track of their vision. Yes, the price is holding tight but I dont believe in the team behind it anymore unfortunately. Good luck if you are still holding
nice to see a well formed Zcash ZEC long thesis. I believe we are in a deviation range and it will rapidly reprice to $100 sometime in the year 2023. There is a Halving in late 2024 which will create longer time horizon buying pressure, the daily emission will be cut in half from around 3600 ZEC down to under 1800 ZEC. Bitcoin halving also occurs in 2024 which may yield considerable macro bid side pressure for altcoins
TheAlchemist888
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@noam_chom, Yes sir, and also the consensus change to proof of stake might have a strong effect on supply of the circulating coins as well.
noam_chom
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@AltugOzturk, yes Proof of Stake would be excellent but I understand that is not coming for a long time (the ecosystem is still debating and researching whether or not to do it). If they give a statement of certainty and a roadmap for the upgrade that could be a massive upward catalyst
Yaser65
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you really believe in ZEC?
TheAlchemist888
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@Yaser65, yes definetely. It is the first and one of the most superior ZK-proof crypto out there. They are going through a complete rebrand and soon a consensus change to proof of stake as well. I think it is a very underrated coin. Just been in accumulation for a long time.
aprojection
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I don't get it. This is good chart, but you were expecting move up a little to soon. Now, when the targets are in place - the order is cancelled. Just my opinion.
TheAlchemist888
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@aprojection, You may be right in terms of the chart but I lost hope in the team behind Zcash. I dont believe they have what it takes to take this wonderful tech to the next level and for adoption. There are many new ZK proof products out there that will probably out pace it. Would rather take my money elsewhere. Thank you for sharing your opinion though, I highly appreciate it.
aprojection
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@TheAlchemist888, Ah yes, I see it. You are right, there are many things we can criticize Zcash on - but maybe that is one of the reasons, why the price is what it is at the moment. Thanks for your reply and this idea. Good luck to You!
Yaser65
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And you still believe in ZEC!!!
TheAlchemist888
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@Yaser65, well I look at the chart and post what I see. Zec has been in heavy distribution for the past years, and sellers seem to be getting exhausted already. So why wouldnt I?
I also believe in ZEC as it brings a very unique technology. In terms of price, Bitcoin was also not very stable or strong for the first 5-6 years, people paid 10,000 Bitcoin for a pizza if you remember =))
I think privacy at Layer-1 is a very important feature and will be scarce in the future as governments slowly adopt CBDCs, and start to identify all crypto users for control. Zcash is actually following the true Satoshi vision with its ZKP technology. You may see Satoshi's post about this wish on bitcointalk (search on google).