ChrisMoody

Educational Piece: How To Find Tops And Bottoms w/ NO Indicators

CBOT:ZL1!   SOYBEAN OIL FUTURES - ECBT
A While back I did a post on EURUSD             Showing probability of the big move down we’ve seen.
Here is the Link: https://www.tradingview.com/v/t3spB16U/#tc102804

About 3/4 of the page down I posted another chart with support levels. I received a few questions where I could tell other traders were looking to buy at the first major support levels.

I asked this Question: IF Price does start to Rally…How will you know if it’s a good time to buy? And How would you know if it’s a short lived rally giving you a good place to short at better price Levels.

I went in to detail on what patterns to look for based on Institutional Order Flow. You can read my answers near the bottom of that page.

I posted this chart for TWO Reasons:
#1 it’s Soy Bean Oil             so it’s easier to just observe theh chart without having a Biased Opinion since very few people on TradingView trade this instrument.
#2 ***This chart shows perfectly two examples I discussed on a How to know it’s a good time to Buy, and the second example shows how you would know it’s a False Rally giving you a better Price to Add to Shorting the symbol.

***Draw the Major Support and Resistance levels I discussed and showed on a chart 3/4 of the way down on the link at the top of this page.

***This Chart looks VERY Similar to the EURUSD             I posted in that link.

*******One of the best Quotes I’ve ever heard that Dramatically impacted my Trading is this, “When your Looking at a Chart ask yourself this, What would have to Happen for the MOST Retail Traders to Get HURT”!

When you get good at answering that question…And when you get good at recognizing Institutional Buying and Selling Accumulation, and Institutional Stop runs. You will be able to trade any chart with a HIGH Probability of Success…WITH NO Indicators!!!!

Institutions MOVE Markets…PERIOD. By evaluating Institutional Price Action along with Major Support and Resistance levels. (Without a BIASED Opinion of what You Think Price Will Do)…You’ll be able to “Print Money” out of the market.
Lower high after sharp move up - Seeing a lot of these in SPY S&P 500 lately
+1 Reply
fcha PRO
2 years ago
Wow, thank you!
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fcha PRO
2 years ago
I try to print all note and the chart as well for study, but I couldn't. something funny always pop up on the chart when print it.
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ChrisMoody PRO fcha
2 years ago
It prints for me...have to put in Landscape...Prime Example of a Screen Shot being best option.

Below is a Downloadable PDF of post. Will keep it live for a day or two
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ChrisMoody PRO ChrisMoody
2 years ago
http://d.pr/f/11WVS
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fcha PRO ChrisMoody
2 years ago
Perfect, thank you!
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hehe
2 years ago
I disagree. The author forgets two basic things: SEASONALITY & WASDE.
+1 Reply
Explain
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hehe QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
"In agriculture, seasonal production is caused by the dependency of the production cycle on periods of the year (seasons), owing to the biological characteristics of cultivated plants and agricultural animals. The amount of labor required for agricultural jobs varies with the season, giving rise to a variable demand for labor power. Seasonal production is most characteristic of the land-cultivation sectors, in which the seasons are winter, spring sowing, tending the plants and haying, harvesting cereal crops, harvesting late agricultural crops, and autumn plowing."
+1 Reply
hehe hehe
2 years ago
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
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hehe hehe
2 years ago
The use only chart in the analysis of agricultural commodities is a very big mistake. Important is the time of year and yields.
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hehe hehe
2 years ago
Compare two examples:

$WHEAT - Don


&

Wheat - Time to go long
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I suppose you are right, each sector or industry has it's own uniqueness.
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hehe QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Exactly!
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littleriver hehe
2 years ago
It seems to me, a fundamental analyst may make the same argument for any product we choose to chart. It is an old argument. I think good data in capable hands will yield better results but for many it only confuses the issue. For myself, Chris's educational piece rings true. While it is true every product is unique, it is also true they are being traded by people in markets created by people and when one understands how this basic market structure works, some basic assumptions about the future may start to be made.
+2 Reply
fcha PRO littleriver
2 years ago
I agree.
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hehe littleriver
2 years ago
Well ... once I finished something like ...University of Agriculture ... this should explain my lack of knowledge ... but please remember: agricultural production this is a minimum of six months, planet Earth has two hemispheres, this gives us a year /a total/ , a year on the chart is a lot of possibilities ;)
+3 Reply
ChrisMoody PRO hehe
2 years ago
I don't mind you disagreeing with anything I say. However, you made an assumption that is not accurate. I didn't forget anything...This post was specifically for Price Action Patterns. It was to answer specific questions and provide an example for questions I've received regarding the EURUSD.

Seasonality - I've used Seasonality for over 10+ years. I like Seasonality. It's a Valid tool (Being that it is calculated correctly). I could have included many other Valid analysis techniques in this post. But I'm trying to cover 1 topic..not write a book on this post.

Also regarding Seasonality...it's calculated over a lookback period and considered Valid if it's percentile (of accuracy) is high enough. Personally I will take a Seasonality Trade if it Percentile accuracy is above 80% and the moves in the instrument are typically substantial. If less that 80% valid I use a confirmation. Price Action Validates that the Seasonality SetUp is currently working as it has in the past.

The instrument I placed on the chart to show this example is irrelevant. I could have used any Stock, Index, Forex, or futures contract. I specifically said I used this symbol b/c I highly doubt anyone is trading it...therefore you can just see the examples I'm documenting without having a biased opinion of what the instrument will do.

It's an educational piece on the Price Action Patterns...Nothing else....this chart shows two good examples a "False" move...and accumulation...which sets up a move that will be a valid reversal. has nothing to do with any other technical analysis.

Like the post or don't like the post...Your Choice...but be careful saying "the author forgets two basic things: Seasonality & WASDE", clearly those are important to you... But I assure you I didn't "Forget" anything. I showed two specific Price Action Patterns that happen over and over, regardless of the Instrument. I PURPOSELY left out Seasonality, WASDE, and many other factors...

I just went and looked at your posts. You do a good job of showing a specific setup and documenting it well. I also notice you use many different variations in your trading as far as setups. I saw technical patterns, specific Indicator setups, Ichimoku, Seasonality, the "January Effect" (which I'm also familiar with), and you showed many other types of valid setups. But I didn't see any charts that 100% of everything you was included in 1 post...so I really don't get your point.

I wish you the best though...your entitled to your opinion...it's just not the topic I was covering in this post.
+3 Reply
hehe ChrisMoody
2 years ago
Dear Chris,

summing up: I still believe that the use of only Price Action Patterns in the analysis of agricultural commodities is a mistake. Comparison to the EURUSD is trivial misunderstanding. Here dollar rules - the stronger dollar makes commodities cheaper. You made half the job. Without rancor.
+1 Reply
fcha PRO
2 years ago
Thank you all.
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fcha PRO
2 years ago
I just test it on stock and its wonderful lesson for me today. Chris charts and notes is simple and easy to understand.
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nico28 PRO fcha
2 years ago
Hi, could you share how to see the institution order flow and what kind of patterns to watch out for institutions enter market to buy and sell?
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timwest PRO
2 years ago
I whole-heartedly agree that it is essential to look at just the price chart for the grand landscape and to always think "Where will the most volume trade in this market"? Markets go to where the most volume will trade, and usually that is to stop out the weakest traders who have built up big positions. Nice chart and thanks for sharing your wisdom with everyone Chris.
+4 Reply
hehe timwest
2 years ago
I like Chris. I'm not against him. Only I think that he forgot a few important things.. A #tradingview is no place for eternal agreement, only to exchange views.
+3 Reply
fcha PRO hehe
2 years ago
You said that you disagree. You have to read the tittle "Educational Piece".
+2 Reply
hehe fcha
2 years ago
...my lack of consent is also "educational".
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timwest PRO hehe
2 years ago
With ags and commodities - it's always good to know the news, when it comes out, how the market reacts and then a good iron-stomach to handle the volatility.
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hehe timwest
2 years ago
We have a total overproduction of agricultural commodities. Another warm winter in the northern hemisphere withdraws prices to the level of the seventies last century. It will not help the next bottoms or tops. We need the frost or blood... for change the charts...
+1 Reply
hehe hehe
2 years ago
http://www.marketpulse.com/20140925/wheat-drops-4-63-world-production-forecast-raised/
+1 Reply
G13Man hehe
2 years ago
may be needed when money collapses , we will be feed ..
and the world is desperate ,pay debts with food
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fcha PRO hehe
2 years ago
Actually there is nothing wrong with Chris and you just came out from nowhere and shoot people, he just try to answer the question that I couldn't answer. Also, I disagree with your opinion because I make profit with all indicator he created without I know about agriculture. It really help for my trade with the bottom and top. I make profit when he posted EURUSD. This post is to answer EURUSD but you commented to ZL1.
+2 Reply
JamesPowell PRO fcha
2 years ago
Markets don't really care what any of us think no way. Sometimes we right sometimes we wrong. This post itself has been entertaining anyway. Goes to show I guess how two folks witnesses same car wreck have two different versions of the facts. Still a car wreck though. Place your bets gentlemen and ladies. Put on you stops and hang on.

Good post even if one of us did kinda miss the point right.
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IvanLabrie PRO JamesPowell
2 years ago
If you are a gambler, then that'd be true. A trader is not a gambler. The market is a living entity, and the people behind the moves are human like you and me, and can be read like a book.
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JamesPowell PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Cool, so you have never been wrong?
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IvanLabrie PRO JamesPowell
2 years ago
Who said I'm perfect? Yet I manage to make some accurate predictions and trade profitably. If it were gambling, the house would win, every time.
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JamesPowell PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Your right to a degree but it's still speculation. I gotta go to bed now. Good night.
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IvanLabrie PRO JamesPowell
2 years ago
Who said it wasn't? But it's not the same as gambling, I don't consider myself a gambler, I put some man hours into this. Have a great weekend!
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JamesPowell PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Yea you are right, it's not gambling per say but there is definitely risk involved.
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xhin
2 years ago
Great piece, thanks for your input.
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nico28 PRO
2 years ago
Hi chris, would it be possible to have a copy of the Pdf you mention 6 months ago. I just joined and missed the opportunity to read the pdf. Below is what you said 6 months ago.. thankyou for your help.
"Below is a Downloadable PDF of post. Will keep it live for a day or two"
+1 Reply
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