US Staatsanleihen stehen von mehreren Seiten unter Druck:
- Global positive Konjunkturdaten
- Reduzierung der Notenbank Bilanzen
- Erhöhung der Fed Funds Rate
Unkalkulierbar ist derzeit das Risiko aus der US TAX Reform. Die nachfolgende Quelle beschreibt das Problem kurz und kompakt. Trifft diese Annahme zu, wird dies Auswirkungen auf alle Märkte haben. Setzt Trump seinen Willen durch richtet sich der Fokus der Anleger in den ersten beiden Quartalen 2018 sehr wahrscheinlich zunächst auf steigende US-Renditen. Im 3. Quartal sollten dann die Umfrageergebnisse zu den Kongress und Senatswahlen die Bondmärkte beeinflussen. Aktutell sind die Chancen hoch, dass die Demokraten die Kongresswahlen gewinnen werden. Ebenso sollte ein Impeachment Verfahren Auswirkungen auf US T-Bonds haben. Steigende US-Zinsen werden die globalen Aktienmärkte ebenso beeinflussen wie den FX Handel.
Zitat:
"Tiefere Steuern = höheres Budgetdefizit
Tiefere Steuern bedeuten in erster Linie tiefere Einnahmen für den Staat. Wenn die Ausgaben nicht im gleichen Ausmass gekürzt werden, steigt das Budgetdefizit. Höhere Schulden sind die Folge. Ausgabenkürzungen in grösserem Stil sind in den USA nicht zu erwarten. Vielmehr sind zusätzliche Ausgaben für das Militär und für den Grenzschutz geplant. Die versprochenen Investitionen für den Ausbau und die dringend notwendige Erneuerung der Infrastruktur sind dabei noch nicht berücksichtigt. Höhere Steuereinnahmen aufgrund des stärkeren Wirtschaftswachstums werden es auch nicht richten. Dies wurde schon bei früheren Steuersenkungen unter den Präsidenten Reagan und Bush versprochen, hat aber nie funktioniert. Das dafür notwendige BIP-Wachstum von 4% ist eine Illusion. Ein massiver Anstieg der bereits heute hohen Schuldenlast ist vorprogrammiert.
Tiefere Steuern = höhere Zinsen
Tiefere Steuern sind ein starker fiskalischer Impuls für die Konjunktur. Für eine Wirtschaft in der Rezession oder am Anfang der wirtschaftlichen Erholung wäre dies eine passende Massnahme. Eine Volkswirtschaft im siebten Jahr des Aufschwungs, die mit einer Arbeitslosenrate von 4.2% nahe bei der Vollbeschäftigung ist, braucht diesen Impuls jedoch nicht mehr. Bis die tieferen Steuern zu wirken beginnen, vergehen zudem noch mindestens zwölf Monate. In dieser Zeit nähert sich die US-Wirtschaft noch stärker ihrem zyklischen Höhepunkt und die vorhandenen Kapazitäten werden noch stärker aufgebraucht. Der fiskalische Impuls kommt im dümmsten Augenblick. Es ist zu erwarten, dass die Fed einer Überhitzung der Konjunktur mit einer noch restriktiveren Geldpolitik zuvorkommen wird. Die Folge sind schneller und stärker steigende Zinsen mit der Gefahr, die Konjunktur früher als gewünscht abzuwürgen."
Quelle: www.moneycab.com/201...rden-weiter-steigen/
Comment:
FUNDMENTAL VIEW, BOND MARKTES
GUNDLACH: The bond market's 'moment of truth has arrived'
www.investing.com/ne...h-has-arrived-547535
GUNDLACH: The bond market's 'moment of truth has arrived'
www.investing.com/ne...h-has-arrived-547535
Comment:
Draghi Expected to Detail ECB’s Tapering Choices www.investing.com/ne...ering-choices-548023
Comment:
MONETARY POLICY:
Yellen, Tax Reform And Draghi Rock The Markets
By Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management.
Between Fed-chair talk and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy announcement, it was an incredibly lively day in the foreign-exchange market, particularly when the ECB announced its QE change minutes before Politico reported that Yellen and Warsh are out of the Fed-chair race.
www.investing.com/an...he-markets-200221318
Yellen, Tax Reform And Draghi Rock The Markets
By Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management.
Between Fed-chair talk and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy announcement, it was an incredibly lively day in the foreign-exchange market, particularly when the ECB announced its QE change minutes before Politico reported that Yellen and Warsh are out of the Fed-chair race.
www.investing.com/an...he-markets-200221318
Trade active:
Comment:
Treasury Yields Are Surging and Bond Traders Are Starting to Get Nervous
Ten-year benchmark at highest since March has traders nervous
Looming supply glut from sovereign issuers damps sentiment
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to the highest level in more than nine months, leading Bill Gross at Janus Henderson Group to declare a bond bear market just ahead of a deluge of sovereign debt sales.
The benchmark U.S. yield rose as much as six basis points to 2.54 percent, a level last seen in March, and the Treasury curve steepened the most in three weeks, as a looming glut of bond supply from the U.S., the U.K., Japan and Germany coincided with a surprise cut in purchases of long-dated Japanese government bonds by the Bank of Japan.
Even though central bank watchers said the BOJ’s actions aren’t interpreted as an imminent shift from ultra-accommodative policy by Japan’s monetary authority, it’s yet another sign of central banks stepping back from global bond markets -- just as the U.S. is about to sell the most debt in eight years. Add to that rising market expectations around inflation, and traders are starting to wager that Treasuries are about to break out of their tightest range in a half-century.
“We’re seeing a lot of overseas buyers who would come in every time we’d have a move close to these levels who aren’t coming in anymore,” said Michael Franzese, New York-based head of fixed-income trading at MCAP LLC, a broker-dealer. “That’s kind of scaring me a little bit. One eye is constantly on the exit button.”
The 10-year yield moved above 2.5 percent earlier Tuesday before paring its gain, and then resumed its upward shift in U.S. trading hours, making fresh highs. It was at 2.542 percent as of 12:16 p.m. in New York. The yield curve from two to 10 years steepened by 5.4 basis points, the most in over a year, to 57.43 basis points.
www.bloomberg.com/ne...urs-exit-speculation
Ten-year benchmark at highest since March has traders nervous
Looming supply glut from sovereign issuers damps sentiment
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to the highest level in more than nine months, leading Bill Gross at Janus Henderson Group to declare a bond bear market just ahead of a deluge of sovereign debt sales.
The benchmark U.S. yield rose as much as six basis points to 2.54 percent, a level last seen in March, and the Treasury curve steepened the most in three weeks, as a looming glut of bond supply from the U.S., the U.K., Japan and Germany coincided with a surprise cut in purchases of long-dated Japanese government bonds by the Bank of Japan.
Even though central bank watchers said the BOJ’s actions aren’t interpreted as an imminent shift from ultra-accommodative policy by Japan’s monetary authority, it’s yet another sign of central banks stepping back from global bond markets -- just as the U.S. is about to sell the most debt in eight years. Add to that rising market expectations around inflation, and traders are starting to wager that Treasuries are about to break out of their tightest range in a half-century.
“We’re seeing a lot of overseas buyers who would come in every time we’d have a move close to these levels who aren’t coming in anymore,” said Michael Franzese, New York-based head of fixed-income trading at MCAP LLC, a broker-dealer. “That’s kind of scaring me a little bit. One eye is constantly on the exit button.”
The 10-year yield moved above 2.5 percent earlier Tuesday before paring its gain, and then resumed its upward shift in U.S. trading hours, making fresh highs. It was at 2.542 percent as of 12:16 p.m. in New York. The yield curve from two to 10 years steepened by 5.4 basis points, the most in over a year, to 57.43 basis points.
www.bloomberg.com/ne...urs-exit-speculation
Comment:
Short Term Target Reached: US TBond Yield 2,60%
Stockmarktes vs. Bond Markets:
www.investing.com/ne...reeyear-high-1084803
www.investing.com/ne...reeyear-high-1084803
Comment:
Short Term up:
Treasury yields pare climb after better-than-expected 10-year note auction
Treasury buying picked up, pushing yields slightly lower, Wednesday afternoon following an auction of 10-year Treasury notes that drew healthier demand than had been expected. An unconfirmed report earlier in the session indicated that China may be considering halting or slowing Treasury purchases, which had cast a pall on the market, driving prices lower and yields higher, as investors appeared to shun U.S. assets. However, market participants described appetite for the 10-year notes as solid. "In the context of a wild and messy few days in interest rates, the 10 year note auction was good," wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer for the Bleakley Advisory Group. The so-called bid-to-cover ratio for the auction stood at 2.69, the highest since 2016. Bid-to-cover ratios are a gauge of appetite for the debt sale, the number represents the proportion of bids received to bids accepted. Treasury auctions can be a litmus test of the state of the bond market. In recent trade, the 10-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.25% was up at 2.569%, versus 2.542% on late Tuesday. The 2-year note yield TMUBMUSD02Y, +0.01% was slightly higher at 1.973%, from 1.968%. The 30-year bond yield TMUBMUSD30Y, +0.36% was at 2.910%, from 2.883%. www.marketwatch...tion-2018-01-10?siteid=big...
Treasury yields pare climb after better-than-expected 10-year note auction
Treasury buying picked up, pushing yields slightly lower, Wednesday afternoon following an auction of 10-year Treasury notes that drew healthier demand than had been expected. An unconfirmed report earlier in the session indicated that China may be considering halting or slowing Treasury purchases, which had cast a pall on the market, driving prices lower and yields higher, as investors appeared to shun U.S. assets. However, market participants described appetite for the 10-year notes as solid. "In the context of a wild and messy few days in interest rates, the 10 year note auction was good," wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer for the Bleakley Advisory Group. The so-called bid-to-cover ratio for the auction stood at 2.69, the highest since 2016. Bid-to-cover ratios are a gauge of appetite for the debt sale, the number represents the proportion of bids received to bids accepted. Treasury auctions can be a litmus test of the state of the bond market. In recent trade, the 10-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.25% was up at 2.569%, versus 2.542% on late Tuesday. The 2-year note yield TMUBMUSD02Y, +0.01% was slightly higher at 1.973%, from 1.968%. The 30-year bond yield TMUBMUSD30Y, +0.36% was at 2.910%, from 2.883%. www.marketwatch...tion-2018-01-10?siteid=big...
de.tradingview.com/chart/ZN1!/WTFu0hNp/