It has been a long time since my last Soybean forecast. It is time to pay attention to this market. It is setting up for the decline. Commercials are heavily selling, the seasonal tendency is to the downside, and Insider Accumulation is turning bearish. So, if on Monday we get below Friday’s low, that will be a sell signal. However, it seems like it will take more time to form some pattern. We may see a very short-term rally followed by a sell signal formation. Don’t hurry and wait for confirmation. We have a good setup, but timing matters a lot in this business.
@Inna_Rosputnia_Managed_Account thank you for the analysis. I agree. This is way overdone because of huge OI and buying it upward. I'm curious, what is your personal sell signal formation or price point you're looking for as a sell confirmation, especially now after today's blowout to new highs?
UnknownUnicorn1156963
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@farmerisland, If it gets rejected here with big volume I will sell after pullback or if it goes up and makes divergence, I will also sell. Till that time I am out of soybean
save4music
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@Inna_Rosputnia_Managed_Account, As a follow up: Are you in ZS now? seems last 2 days might signal a short entry?
UnknownUnicorn1156963
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@save4music, I made just intraday trade. will wait now
save4music
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Fully agree. However, future curves are in deep backwardation ... how does that fit into analysis?
would feel better if backwardation starts slowly go to contango again ... but does not seem to be case so far
UnknownUnicorn1156963
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@save4music, There is backwardation between January and March contract. November - January contract is contango. We are talking about sell signal that can be formed in coming days or max weeks (there is fundamental setup for that). January - March contracts relationship doesnt have much influence for now. Backwardation happens when someone need a lot of commodity and ready to pay higher price for faster delivery. Who needs commodity? - Real users (commercials). So, usually backwardation happens when commercials are long. We had such situation this year in wheat. Besides, we need a technical signal before going short (no signal - no trade). Its not about blind betting, we look for conditions to move market to the upside or to the downside. Once we have conditions, we wait for technical entry in that direction. Usually we get one, very rarely we have situations when market is set up for rally or decline, but there is no price action confirmation. But definitely all is possible, and thats why we look at price action as final step in taking decision to sell or buy commodity
save4music
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@Inna_Rosputnia_Managed_Account, thx a lot ... learned from it ...+1