Remko

Soybeans almost ready for a short play

CBOT:ZSN2016   SOYBEAN FUTURES - ECBT
29 0 3
Soybeans:
Price reached our target some time ago already and is performing an overshoot which is nothing unusual as it is just not possible to predict exactly where the waves will end. The EW principle gives us a complete count but that doesn't mean that a top is on the chart indeed already. Taking a position just on basis of the fact that you can see the EW count seemingly completed is too much of a gamble which we avoid at all times.
The broadening wedge that we have drawn in the chart is still intact and price has continued to close within the boundaries of same wedge although price has been trading outside of same as well. This pattern is a typical indicator that the end of the trend is imminent but is also no guarantee that a reverse is in place here and now.
Fridays' shape of the candle is another indication the the reverse could be there with the spike up and the close back down, leaving a candle with a very long topping tail which tells us that the bulls ran out of air.
All together serious indications that a reverse is in the making which drives us to the edge to move and entertain a short play. But for now we keep our powder dry and wait for a confirmation in the price move. This is not yet the time and level to go short but it certainly is not the time and place to go long either. Patience and discipline is the name of the game now..
Ideally, price would now start trading down, then break its support at the 1125/1135 region, then bounce back up a bit from the lower boundary of the broadening wedge , then test back the 1125/1135 support/resistance zone and reverse back down again for a trade down of some 10%. The test back would then be our hotspot to entertain a short play.
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