MarkE

Wheat is contracting for a breakout

CBOT:ZW1!   Wheat Futures

Wheat is contracting into a symmetrical triangle and is poised for a breakout. Volatility as measured by a 14 day ATR is the lowest it has been since last year February, this is generally a good sign of a market poised for a large move especially when combined with a definitive consolidation pattern like a symmetrical triangle. Which way the break will occur is another matter entirely, wheat prices have generally been trending downwards over the last 7 years and therefore the recent rally in prices could be seen as simply a correction in the overall larger downtrend. However wheat recently put in a higher lower and higher high and formed what could be interpreted as a very ugly inverse head and shoulders pattern. Based on this observation I am leaning towards the conclusions that a base has been formed in price and a longer term uptrend is beginning to establish itself. Despite this a break in either direction of the triangle will be acted upon. Top side breaks should target 561 while downside breaks should target 478. Stops can be placed at 518 and make sure to seek entries with positive risk reward ratios, ideally 2 to 1 or more.

*This is not a recommendation to buy or sell it is for educational purposes only*