forker
Long

WEAT under pressure?

CBOT:ZW1!   Wheat Futures
Not really. Instead it's building pressure!

All the messing around in the sideways area (dark red) is usually managed to "load the boat".

If price breaks out to the upside, there's even a chance that we could forget to find a entry like I have projected with the arrows.

What also pops into my eyes is the slightly exponential curve that's begin to build with the last couple bars...

Putting the Toe into the water is not a bad Idea for me. If the scenario becomes real, I would load up on new pullbacks.

P!
Comment: Here we have the pullback after the breakout.
Comment: Yep, like it so far...intentional move today.
Comment: Hmmm....
Comment: Faking around as usual...but now it looks really good.
I agree with you completely but the only thing that rules out a bullish position for me at your MLH is the unavailability of structure to hide my stops .
Reply
forker mberoakoko
@mberoakoko,
It depends how you define structure. Let me show you how I see structure here:



Now, of course this would be a huge stop and probably way too big for most of retail traders.
For a great Risk/Reward you need a smaller stop, right?

So why not analyse the "Flow" instead of the whole trend. If you get the Flow right, then you can lean on this structure too:



So here you have the TREND, which is stair stepping to the downside.
But the FLOW is currently up. And within the flow you also have structure. So you could put your stop behind this cheaper Pivot Low.
If this is still too much, then you probably should not trade this underlying because of too much risk. Or switch to the ETF (WEAT) where you could manage the size properly.

Hope this helps :)

P!
+1 Reply
I wouldn't express my ideas on price when it comes to pressure , instead this is where I'd wait for price to show me the way.
Reply
forker mberoakoko
@mberoakoko,

Yes, 100% with you.
What I have posted in the first chart is an "Idea" how the market could act. NOT how it WILL act.

This is where most of the retail traders fail.
a) taking information for granted which they have not studied or read thoroughly and
b) not thinking in advance in terms of possibilities

As an MG student I'm sure you know what I'm talking about ;-)

Have a sunny day mberoakoko

P!
+1 Reply
AndyA forker
@forker, Stumbled in here tonight and delighted by your presentation. Got to love where wheat stands right here, so poetic for the solstice and all. Thanks for the beautiful view! Best!
Reply
forker AndyA
@AndyA,
Thank you AndyA.

It's only what my eyes see.
Don't understand it as a "forecast" ...so no coffee-ground reading here ;-)

T'care and thanks for chiming in!
Reply
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