A long-term chart shows that wheat (yellow) is in a flat bottom triangle pattern and that it may soon break out of it. It may not be fully clear on the chart but the support is more and more being tested during the last weeks so the breakout could happen before this summer. The last triangle breakout occurred on a period from middle May to middle June 2012. The bigger triangle broke at the end of June 2010 in a more violent manner. Note that in June 2015 we were close from such conditions with a hit against the upper bound of the triangle.
Interestingly, the breakout were bullish in the two cases so I would rather bet on the bullish-side once again. However of course, if the price manages to break the deep layer of supporting lines, it could turn bearish and who knows in this market. As with other commodities, weather plays a large role as well as currencies, that's why I plot the pair EURUSD. You can see some correlation, a breakout requires supportive monetary conditions and prices are likely to rise if EURUSD is in a local bottom.
Interestingly, the breakout were bullish in the two cases so I would rather bet on the bullish-side once again. However of course, if the price manages to break the deep layer of supporting lines, it could turn bearish and who knows in this market. As with other commodities, weather plays a large role as well as currencies, that's why I plot the pair EURUSD. You can see some correlation, a breakout requires supportive monetary conditions and prices are likely to rise if EURUSD is in a local bottom.