It is official. Inflation is back. But not everywhere. Food inflation is on the decline. All three major crops, Soybean, Wheat, and Corn have declined substantially. Bearish sentiments rings loud across agri with ample supplies combined with solid harvest expectations.
Among crops, corn has fared best. Its prices have not declined as much. Corn outlook is...
Crude oil prices have remained lacklustre and rangebound in 2024. Slow economic growth and abundant production have kept prices muted. OPEC's efforts of supply cuts haven’t helped. Neither have geopolitical tensions.
Over the past two weeks, oil prices have once more started to pick up steam, supported by trend of shrinking inventory. Despite the price buoyancy,...
Last week , we examined Natural Gas from a seasonality perspective. This week, we aim to extend that discussion and explore other ways to implement a similar view.
To quickly recap: From a seasonality standpoint, we identified short-term opportunities for a downward move in Natural Gas. Factors such as higher-than-normal storage levels, unseasonably warm weather,...
When Chips are down; invest if you can and hedge if you must. Having soared in 2020 & 2021, semiconductor shares tanked brutally as tremors from geopolitics, sinking consumer confidence and bloated inventory struck.
Q4 overhang is dragging the industry down in the near term, which might have set a bearish outlook in the short-term, but times are changing....
In the following charts below, we will highlight why copper looks interesting to us right now.
Firstly, the Copper Outright prices (orange) vs the Calendar spread (black). Copper calendar spread tend to move in-line with its outright prices, until major turning points, when the calendar spread leads the outright price movement. In February 2022, we observed the...
$JPM Earnings on deck! JP speaking Tues, this is setting up for an interesting trade... Loading on a pullback with stops at Friday's low.
5%+ IV time skew w/ earnings coming on the 14th for options!
$170C calendars would give a really nice edge here
Description:
Neutral Calendar Spread, betting on a small move and sharp decrease in IV short term options following earnings on Monday.
Long Call Calendar Spread
Levels indicated by the triangle:
Max gain occurs at peak
Break-evens at the ends
Expiration on the right side
Break-evens
254.1, +9.8%
213.46, -7.8%
R/R: ~5:1
Positive R/R, stop...
Description:
Earnings after close today, taking advantage of high IV on same week options and covering with next week's (Calendar Spread).
Long Call Calendar Spread
Levels on Chart
Break-evens
91.34 +16%
69.01, -12%
R/R: ~4:1
Positive R/R, stop loss levels built into position.
Intend to close before near term expiration.
*Stops based off underlying...
Description:
Earnings after close on Wednesday, taking advantage of high IV on same week options and covering with next week's (Calendar Spread).
From Deltaone on Twitter: twitter.com
76% expect beat
9.5% move priced in
7.7% avg move post earnings in recent quarters
Long Call Calendar Spread
Levels on Chart
Break-evens
344.96, +12.89%
275.74,...
Description:
Earnings after close, taking advantage of high IV on same week options and covering with next week's (Calendar Spread).
Long Call Calendar Spread
Levels on Chart
R/R ~4:1
Positive R/R, stop loss levels built into position.
Conveniently, Break-evens:
158.99, (2 stdev from open)
146.33, (~80% of 1 stdev from open)
Intend to close before near...
Description:
Earnings after close, taking advantage of high IV on same week options and covering with next week's (Calendar Spread).
Long Call Calendar Spread
Levels on Chart
R/R ~3:1
Positive R/R, stop loss levels built into position.
Intend to close before near term expiration.
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
...
Thought of this as I saw the further-out Dec'22 & Jun'22 6-months spread flipping through the closer Jun'22 & Dec'21 ; the historical examples are given in the chart in green circles.
Seems like oil is looking higher from here as per the indication of the attached chart.
Let us see how this unravels.
(Note that I am writing this idea about an hour after market open when $NET is trading around $90)
Thought I would publish a quick idea on how I like to select and play earnings on stocks. $NET looks like a decent candidate as an example and actual trade.
Earnings reports represent an opportunity for a BIG move, but we just don't know WHICH direction. Many...
Looking foward to this Friday or Mon to get onto $30 calls. Market will continue to drop until election, not buying the dip now. Post- election can go both ways with ER so no point of waiting till then. RKT is a solid company for Long term.
Nordstrom has been a big loser since COVID-19 and is on a long-term downtrend. However, it's been on a short-term uptrend since late August and just blew through its July highs. The next objective will be the early August highs around $17.50. Our goal is to ride the short-term trend for as long as it lasts during September and October. We don’t want to own this...
We have seen how volatility has increased in the market. How one can survive such fall and rise in the market (Option Selling).
Find out in the Chart Below Nifty 50.
