Economic Cycles

Cycles are long term fluctuating activities with 4 distinct periods: improvement, prosperity, recession, and depression. These periods can be called differently, but the basic concept remains the same. In the improvement phase we turn from depression to prosperity. We typically see rising economic activities, increased production and investment and a rise in income and employment. In the prosperity phase we typically see rising interest rates, inflation, overall economic optimism, economic activity and high income.

In the recession phase we turn from prosperity to depression. We typically see falling demands, decline in income, low economic confidence and falling stock markets. In the depression phase we typically see a decline in consumption and demand, falling interest rates, deflation, economic pessimism and low income. Cycles can be used to find the best stocks to invest in, based on what kind of sectors and companies perform better in which period, e.g. cyclical stocks in the improvement phase and defensive stocks during the recession phase.
EXCAVO EXCAVO SP1!, M, Short , 5 months ago
3451 22 155
SP1!, M Short

Kondratiev wave The economic cycle has four phases: improvement, prosperity, recession and depression. Now we are in a phase of recession or inflation Economic bubble. Within the next 5 years there will be big changes in the world. Shange of the financial system, the educational system, technology. In 2000 We didnt moved from the 20th to the 21st century. We use ...

Emanance Emanance BTCUSD, D, a year ago
BTCUSD: Phases of a 'Bitcoin' Bubble
4734 7 67
Phases of a 'Bitcoin' Bubble

Everyones probably seen the old 'Phases of a Bubble' template kicking around the web. So I thought I'd give the daily price chart for Bitcoin the 'Phases of a Bubble' treatment.

ShPro ShPro PRO TNX, W, 2 months ago
TNX: Economic cycle, market cycle, interest rates, trend lines & SPX
221 0 16
Economic cycle, market cycle, interest rates, trend lines & SPX

This chart provides probable market behavior given current market behavior, interest rates, and other factors such as presidential elections. I am expecting a down turn during the next week which would last until late February and another leg up in SPX until the final move down in August 2017. Trend line colors mark ...

EXCAVO EXCAVO SP1!, D, Short , 2 months ago
SP1!: SP-500
483 6 36
SP1!, D Short

We make new high. And we saw a big move down after Fed statement. Most likely we draw the fourth wave. But I think we need to make last high. We were just on top of the bigest attraction, open your eyes and catch the buzz. Because it is the end of the economic cycle.I believe it will be a long decline.

EXCAVO EXCAVO SP1!, D, Short , 3 months ago
SP1!: SP-500
497 0 23
SP1!, D Short

Now there will be a correction until fibonacci level 61.8 - 78.5% The last peak in the range 2250-2350 And the end of the economic cycle

EXCAVO EXCAVO US30USD, D, Short , 4 months ago
689 2 38
US30USD, D Short

Now there will be a correction. The last peak in the range 19000-20000 And the end of the economic cycle

AlinaMazur AlinaMazur SP1!, W, Short , 4 months ago
SP1!: SP -500
183 0 11
SP1!, W Short
SP -500

Now there will be a correction. The last peak in the range 2250-2350 And the end of the economic cycle

pixi pixi XAUUSD, M, 5 months ago
XAUUSD: Is Gold in bubble ?
2660 40 71
Is Gold in bubble ?

hi, This is not a chart for trading or to get entry/exit levels. I remember in 2010 when newspapers/ news on television were beginning to focus on gold price (media attention). From this point, i tried to find if gold have real similitudes before and after with a classic bubble. Obviously, it does. This is theorical and not a trade plan. Comments are really ...

maxwell.hicok maxwell.hicok F, 120, Long , 7 months ago
F: Ford
42 0 2
F, 120 Long

This is a photo of Ford stock. One crucial point that pops out at me is that this stock is traded around whole and half dollar amounts. At first, I did a small perspective of this chart from which did not make sense. So I backed it out in time and I found better evidence for what the actual trend could be. Respect the trend. respect the financials, and respect ...

norok norok PRO NWL, D, Long , 7 months ago
NWL: NWL at MTF Support pre-Earnings
17 0 1
NWL, D Long
NWL at MTF Support pre-Earnings

Taking a pre-earnings play on NWL at matching support on the Weekly, Daily, and Swing trading levels. The September 49 Calls are at average Implied Volatility so I'm taking singles. The top of the consolidation range and a break thereof will get the Calls ITM. Current Market Outlook I follow the theory of Sector rotation in terms of what the movement of money ...

EXCAVO EXCAVO US30, M, Short , 10 months ago
3627 9 129
US30, M Short


Quantum_Maryland_Capital Quantum_Maryland_Capital SPX500, 120, Short , a year ago
SPX500: Brief Update on $SPX
43 0 2
SPX500, 120 Short
Brief Update on $SPX

Prior to yesterday, we had been consolidating/trading almost since the beginning of the month in a rather narrow band of approximately 57 points as illustrated in the two blue horizontal lines. Yesterday, however, on the back of increasing oil prices and extremely dovish comments from the Fed we saw prices break out of the range and today we added to those gains ...

CommoditiesTrader CommoditiesTrader JPM, W, a year ago
JPM: The Dimon Bottom Hype Is Over
224 0 3
The Dimon Bottom Hype Is Over

CNBC has loved to refer the recent pullback in the SPX as the "Dimon Bottom" because CEO Jamie Dimon purchased roughly $26 million worth of JPM shares. However, it's not looking for those wanting to hold to believe in the recovery dream. Whether investors want to believe it or not, the U.S. economic cycle is rolling over; and, considering the very high ...

ACLazyPiggy ACLazyPiggy GPS, D, Short , a year ago
GPS: GAP INC is another retailer in the bear market
23 0 1
GPS, D Short
GAP INC is another retailer in the bear market

Sales productivity today (blended) is in excess of $400/foot. In past recessions it's dropped down closer to $360/foot. And on a go-forward basis, with increasing competition from Uniqlo, H&M, and not to mention little ol' Primark, we think that GPS is just structurally unable to compete -- especially at a 12%+ margin structure when we're late in the economic ...

MacroThinking MacroThinking SPX500, W, Long , 2 years ago
SPX500: Stock Market at Important Juncture
140 1 2
SPX500, W Long
Stock Market at Important Juncture

The S&P500 is at an important point in time. This excellent chart from @YaKa shows how the market is now at a meaningful long-term inflection point after a 7.5 year run. Normally this would be convincing, but this market cycle is different and thus the last run cannot be used for precise comparison. This market is not expensive enough at a point in the economic ...

deger deger SPX500, M, Long , 2 years ago
SPX500: S&P 500 is soaring
74 0 0
SPX500, M Long
S&P 500 is soaring

US QE program bore fruit in the form of rapid growth of stock indices. However, it is interesting which level will be reached and when we should be on alert. The first obvious S&P 500 target is 2,100 mark – Fibonacci progressive level of 1.618, deferred from the first removal of price after the crisis. We can expect correction of this frantic movement. It is ...

look4edge look4edge SPX500, M, Long , 2 years ago
349 2 7
SPX500, M Long

Sorry guys, for anyone, who is fascinated with idea of CRASH and 2007 REPEAT, imho, TODAY IS NOT ANOTHER 2007 as divergencies on weekly chart could mimic. Also - and most important - SPX did in 2007 DOUBLE TOP - NOT ATH BREAK. Just look at emas, SAR and momentum on monthly chart. Last megabullish monthly hammer reversal on BIG VOLUME is sending different ...

Technician Technician TOP SPX, W, Short , 2 years ago
SPX: Stocks: Despite rally, investors remain defensive!
808 14 14
SPX, W Short
Stocks: Despite rally, investors remain defensive!

Despite the major rally last week, Cyclical stocks (XLY) was less involved in this rally in favor to more defensive stocks (XLP).. Explanation: XLY is an ETF that tracks the consumer discretionary sector, which is an offensive sector that takes the lead in risk-on, growth-on environment, usually leads in early stages of of economic expansion environment and ...

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