Real estate has been booming along with bonds recently because of the widely expected cut in the Fed funds rate in July. I think that this move has already priced in the rate cut, and so if rates are cut, price will move very little. The risk is that rates are not cut! Check out the AUG-23 weeklies for attractive pricing.
If you follow my ideas you know that I like to be neutral more often than not. I originally was looking at a Calendar spread for $EEM but decided that an Iron Butterfly would be the better trade. It has wider breakevens to cover the majority of the recent range, as opposed to the Calendar, which would require an increase in IV to expand its range. Typically, IV...
Focus in the short term (which is 25-45 DTE for me) will be on ETF's, although opportunities could crop up with earnings (still hoping for a TWTR dip post-earnings to go long via short puts).
Here's what came up on my high IVR/IV screen:
BANC, IVR's 100/IV 100. Options, however, are crappy (monthlies only), but you can get something decent for a 20 delta short...
This rolled out, "goofy" setup (it basically morphed into a long strangled inverted short strangle upon rolling) has moved into profit, so -- like the LULU short strangle (i.e., broken and rolled) -- I'll look to take it off at NY open for a small profit, so that I can redeploy the buying power elsewhere in a higher probability setup ... .
I'll post the trade...
With volatility ebbing out of the broader markets and earnings season, for all practical purposes, over, I'm looking to put on some small, defined risk, premium selling plays in April while the remainder of my March setups work themselves out. With an implied volatility rank at 60 and an implied volatility of 48, EWZ isn't the greatest play in the world for...
