MACRO MONDAY 33 ~ NFIB
National Federation of Independent Business Index (NFIB)
Released Tuesday 13th Feb 2024
Think of the NFIB small business index as a sentiment index, a sort of mood meter for small businesses. The higher the index, the more optimistic small businesses will be about spending more, expanding and increasing or maintaining employees.
The...
This analysis overlays US Recessions over CBOE:SPX on the top pane.
Bottom pane is a technique shared by famous trader , Larry William - recently presented at a NAAIM Conference. The technique looks at US job market as % of population. You can find more on Sentimentrader.
Larger declines in stock market are usually accompanied by a recession. There is clearly...
Macro Monday 14
US Employment Rate Pre-Recession Indications
The Unemployment Rate tells us how many people in the United States are currently without a job and actively looking for one. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates and reports the unemployment rate. In basic terms it consists of the following;
Survey: The Bureau of Labor Statistics...
Contextual immersion trading strategy idea.
The demand for shares of Fiverr International looks higher than the supply.
The company operates an online marketplace worldwide. Its platform enables sellers to sell their services and buyers to buy them.
Due to the spread of COVID-19 and lockdown, the demand for the company`s services rose.
This and other...
Contextual immersion trading strategy idea.
Paychex has a strong downside trend.
The company provides integrated human capital management solutions.
Due to the spread of the COVID-19, the demand for the company's services has fallen.
This and other conditions can cause a fall in the share price today.
So I opened a short position from $55,53;
stop-loss —...
Contextual immersion trading strategy idea.
ManpowerGroup has a strong downside trend.
The company offers recruitment services and other workforce solutions and services in the Americas, Southern Europe, Northern Europe, and the Asia Pacific Middle East region.
Due to the spread of the COVID-19, the demand for workforce solutions fell.
This and other...
Yesterday Boris Johnson turned British politics upside down.
By the way, labour market data came out mixed. On the one hand, claims for unemployment benefits increased (+ 28,800 versus + 26,400 in October), and on the other hand, employment rate was higher than expected (24,000 with a forecast -14,000), and unemployment rate turned out to be better than experts...
Thursday was not full in events however we could observe some movements that were mainly focused on safe-haven assets, in which a mass exodus of traders was observed.
You do not have to guess what is markets concern about, just look throughout the dynamics of gold or the Japanese yen, you can see is there any progress or not in negotiation between the USA and...
The Japanese yen steadily strengthened yesterday because of the results of the meeting of the Bank of Japan and news from China. When the Bank of Japan expectedly left the rate unchanged, the Chinese quite unexpectedly announced that they doubted the possibility of a long-term trade deal with President Donald Trump.
That is, it is too early to stop worrying about...
The publication of US employment data from ADP came out yesterday. However, the outcome did not form positions in the markets. The + 135K figure came out almost in line with forecasts (experts expected + 140K), so the markets did not get an answer to the question of what to expect from the NFP figures. Although in general, the vector is unpleasant for the US...
IMO FOMC George was largely bullish/ Hawkish $ on the margin; surprisingly coming out and stating for one of the first times that "Fed rates are too low" and "Not Raising Rates in June Was Due to Timing Issues" - these two statements imo hint that a hike coUuld be on the cards earlier than perhaps was expected (Dec), in-light of his opinion of them being too low...
