A quick update on the future of the Turkish Lira (TL):
Interest rates will rise to the range of 30% to 35% and will remain high for the following years (possibly 2-3 years). The Turkish Central Bank will stop printing vast amounts of money, and getting loans for purchasing houses or cars will become difficult. This action will lower inflation for few years. TL...
Overview
I'm calling 2024 the end of Lira selling.
The Details
2024 could see Turkish inflation peak🗻
The main driving force of the TRY selling has been unconventional monetary policy, erratic changes of the head of Turkey's central bank and finance ministers, and undisciplined high inflation
A rate hiking cycle has been in play since May 2023 - rates...
For the last months, the Turkish lira has been traded near the all-time lows against USD. I think that demand for the lira would shift soon, and it would trigger a breakout of resistance of 18.7 with the first psychological price target of TRY 20 for 1 USD with consolidation near 25 in the second half of the year.
In terms of technical analysis, I do not see any...
Since the self-proclaimed monetary "expert" and Father of #MMT
Warren Mosler said,
"Erdogan has it right"
(to lower interest rates back on March 22, 2021), the USD has appreciated by 145% against the $TRY
Easy to say, not stupid enough to take his own advice & buy the $TRY
Great lesson not to listen to self proclaimed "monetary experts" who could not even...
%19 Interest rate, huge debts, vaccination progress is still very low.
Turkish Central Bank manager kicked out because of interest rates, but we have still a huge interest rate and USD/TRYis still going forward. What Turkey could do? No tourism income for now, no leverage hand for interest anymore.
Unfortunately, TRY will be 10 soon if we close daily above 8.58....
I'm writing to you today to discuss the recent election results in Turkey and how they have impacted the value of the Turkish lira.
As you may know, President Erdogan's party suffered a significant setback in the recent local elections, which has caused a drop in the value of the Turkish lira. While this news may concern some, it presents a unique opportunity...
Forex market have started getting very volatile (after years of making us fall asleep), following the west heavily increasing their interest rates + the war against Russia.
The risk reward could be very good, the price can easily rally strongly. It looks like it could be about to burst. Even 15% odds of that happening are worth it to me.
The USDTRY fundamentals...
Although the chart has too many bullish daily candles, the upward angle and trend confidence shows me the trend is your friend. So I expect a new record high and a breakout of December's high of 18.25 . The target is 20 in the next two months .
On the macro side, the imbalances remain. Turkey has the highest negative real interest rate (minus 64%) * among...
I am aware of the current geopolitical problems in the world and especially in Turkey.
Also the economy of Turkey has had a very hard time.
In 2023 there seem to be re-elections. Maybe if they get rid of Erdogan there can be a future.
Also 2023 is like the holy grail year for the Turks because they can "pump the oil out of the ground", because of a so called...
Hello traders and arkadaslarim, This is an update of previous analysis (blow link). Everything is clear on the chart for you like always. So monitor the price's action in the circle. After breakout the resistance zone and fixation, we can buy and for lower risk after pullback.
Good luck.
If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow me for...
USD/TRY may end the uptrend for a period of time in a bear market correction. Either the bear market is in the going or the uptrend may
still needs to make more uptick before the bear market resume. The wave count and chart pattern may give us a clue for the direction of the trend. Only sustain trading above 18 Lira to one US Dollar may destroy the bear market...
Economy keeps crashing in the hands of "strong man" Erdogan, who has fired every Head of Turkish Central Bank who tried to stop him fulfill his own Turkish Dream of hyperinflation in which business is no longer possible as the cost of imports and commodities rises daily. Erdogan's genius policy in a world where growth and investment is stalling is to keep slashing...
In long-term view, the pair is heavily overbought and inflation is very high
It does not mean the market condition can continuously drive it upwards.
TP areas are signed white flags. And supports are black flags.
*Please share your opinion on it, write in the comments. Dont forget some cheers bravo. "
Teşekkürler.
Hello traders and arkadaslarim, Everything is clear on the chart for you like always. So monitor the price's action in the circle. After breakout the resistance zone and fixation, we can buy and for lower risk after pullback.
Good luck.
If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow me for next analysis :)
Write your comment and opinion below to me
Here we go again!
I see more downside for the Lira, tough times indeed.
Notice the breakout of a wedge pattern.
That is my thesis. Good luck out there guys.
1% Risk 4:1 RR
As for now, Turkish Lira is still ABOVE 2021´s Close (Black Line) and Came back to Restest it.
Hence the Bullish Bias Remains. If price starts going up it will end at yearly R3.
If price breaks below yearly S1 (what I find unlikely) the yearly downtrend will be to S3.
For Educational Purposes Only.
