nakedshortput

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines GPRO, D, Long , 3 months ago
GPRO: OPENING: GPRO JAN 20TH 9 SHORT PUT
47 0 3
GPRO, D Long
OPENING: GPRO JAN 20TH 9 SHORT PUT

The simplest option play in the book, and too juicy to pass up ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 65% Max Profit: $100 Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $800, assuming you do nothing and the stock goes to zero/broker dependent Break Even: $8.00 Notes: I got this filled earlier today for a 1.00 ($100) credit. It's still going for .96 at the mid price, however.

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines ANF, D, Long , 4 months ago
ANF: EARNINGS PLAY: ANF NOV 25TH 14.5 SHORT PUT
19 0 1
ANF, D Long
EARNINGS PLAY: ANF NOV 25TH 14.5 SHORT PUT

Putting this on a touch early ... . High implied volatility rank/high implied volatility in advance of earnings. I'm looking for a volatility crush after earnings announcement and, of course, bullish or sideways movement ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 74% Max Profit: $48/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $1402 (assuming the stock goes to 0, and you ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines JNPR, W, 5 months ago
JNPR: EARNINGS: JNPR, GRPN, AND TWTR (DIRECTIONAL PLAYS)
23 0 4
JNPR, W
EARNINGS: JNPR, GRPN, AND TWTR (DIRECTIONAL PLAYS)

A couple of other ideas for next week surrounding earnings ... . I like to have a lot of these ideas in the hopper so that I can price setups during regular market hours; some of these aren't as "sexy"/liquid during NY as they appear in off hours. JNPR Dec 2nd 21 short puts; .45 cr at the mid (strike around long-term support). Earnings (10/25). I generally do ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines BANC, D, 5 months ago
BANC: WHAT I'M LOOKING AT NEXT WEEK (10/24) -- BANC, EWW, XBI
32 0 2
BANC, D
WHAT I'M LOOKING AT NEXT WEEK (10/24) -- BANC, EWW, XBI

Focus in the short term (which is 25-45 DTE for me) will be on ETF's, although opportunities could crop up with earnings (still hoping for a TWTR dip post-earnings to go long via short puts). Here's what came up on my high IVR/IV screen: BANC, IVR's 100/IV 100. Options, however, are crappy (monthlies only), but you can get something decent for a 20 delta short ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines GDX, W, Long , 5 months ago
GDX: GDX (GOLD MINERS ETF) -- A GOOD PLACE TO ADD/INITIATE LONG HERE
76 0 5
GDX, W Long
GDX (GOLD MINERS ETF) -- A GOOD PLACE TO ADD/INITIATE LONG HERE

With gold hovering just north of 1250, having lost a good deal of luster to pesky Greenback strength, this is possibly a good place to add into current bullish gold positions and/or initiate one here.* 22 and change, after all, appears to be fairly long-term support for GDX, so I would look to add bullish positions via naked short puts or short put verticals at ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines XOP, W, 5 months ago
XOP: XOP -- BROADLY RANGEBOUND BETWEEN 32 AND 41
26 0 3
XOP, W
XOP -- BROADLY RANGEBOUND BETWEEN 32 AND 41

With November OPEC talks designed ostensibly to hammer out proposed output cuts being the binary event for oil in the near-term, I'm looking to either (a) add to bullish positions in petro if those talks fail to result in meaningful cuts (I'm skeptical); or (b) hang on to my current bullish petro plays for the ride higher if those talks actually result in ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines VRX, 240, 5 months ago
VRX: TRADE IDEA: VRX NOV 18TH 17.5 SHORT PUT
48 0 2
VRX, 240
TRADE IDEA: VRX NOV 18TH 17.5 SHORT PUT

Okay, so there's other "big pharma" that I like wayyy better than Valeant (e.g., BMY, GILD). The problem is that BMY and GILD are more expensive and don't have the implied volatility that VRX has (for obvious reasons: they don't have as many "warts" as VRX). Nevertheless, I'm watching VRX here because its implied volatility is so high (>100%), which makes ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines EXEL, D, 5 months ago
EXEL: OPENING: EXEL NOV 18TH 11 SHORT PUT
37 0 2
EXEL, D
OPENING: EXEL NOV 18TH 11 SHORT PUT

Here, I'm looking to sell a touch of premium in an underlying that has both high implied volatility rank (99.6%) and high background implied volatility (99.2%). Metrics: Probability of Profit: 70% Max Profit: $85/contract Buying Power Effect: Varies by Broker.* Break Even: 10.15 Notes: I'll shoot to take this off at 50% max profit. However, I could also see ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines EWW, D, 6 months ago
EWW: TRADE IDEA: EWW NOV 18TH 46 SHORT PUT
22 0 2
EWW, D
TRADE IDEA: EWW NOV 18TH 46 SHORT PUT

I've never played this particular broad market ETF, but it beats trading SPY et al. here, particularly since you can get a 1.00 in credit out of a short put in an sub-$50 underlying ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 76% Max Profit: $101/contract Max Loss: Undefined (it would be $4499 if the ETF went to zero and you did absolutely nothing) Break Even: ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines NVAX, D, 6 months ago
NVAX: NVAX TRADE UPDATE
117 6 1
NVAX, D
NVAX TRADE UPDATE

I figured I'd clean up this setup a little bit on the chart to show what's going on with this trade a little more clearly, since we're running into opex, and I'll have to do something with it here shortly. I also for mapping out what I'm going to do if price does certain things relative to my cost basis and original stock purchase price. The trade originally ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines DDD, 240, 6 months ago
DDD: TRADE IDEA: DDD OCT 21ST 14 NAKED SHORT PUT
28 0 0
DDD, 240
TRADE IDEA: DDD OCT 21ST 14 NAKED SHORT PUT

Looking to either (a) keep the premium; (b) get put the stock cheaper, after which I'll proceed to sell calls against ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 75% P50: 84% Max Profit: $59/contract Break Even: 13.41

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines GPRO, D, 6 months ago
GPRO: OPENING: GPRO OCT 21ST 13 SHORT PUT
30 0 1
GPRO, D
OPENING: GPRO OCT 21ST 13 SHORT PUT

Here, I'm just trying to suck in a little bit of premium without being all in on the stock ... . (Filled for a .64 ($64)/contract credit). As usual, I'm selling the strike nearest 30 delta. I'm fine with getting assigned at 13 (after which I'd proceed to sell calls against), but would naturally prefer cheaper, so will keep an eye out for opportunities to roll ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines VRX, 240, Long , 6 months ago
VRX: TRADE IDEA: VRX OCT 21ST 25 SHORT PUT
60 0 1
VRX, 240 Long
TRADE IDEA: VRX OCT 21ST 25 SHORT PUT

Here, I'm looking to sell some premium at or around the 30 delta strike (this one's at the 25 delta). Probability of Profit: 70% Max Profit: $132/contract Break Even: 23.68 Notes: The notion here is either to keep the premium received if price stays above $25 into expiration or roll the option down and out for additional credit if it doesn't. I'm not sure at ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines AMD, W, 6 months ago
AMD: TRADE IDEA: AMD COVERED CALL/NAKED SHORT PUT
114 0 1
AMD, W
TRADE IDEA: AMD COVERED CALL/NAKED SHORT PUT

My "guess" is that AMD will not hold onto this level (I briefly considered going "monied" with the short call with the covered call setup, selling the 7 strike instead of the 8). However. implied volatility is fairly high here (64.6%), and my mechanical approach to most of these setups is basically to "ditch the guessing" and pull the trigger; price will go where ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines VIX, D, 6 months ago
VIX: WITH VIX SUB-15, PREEM SELLING OPPS ARE OUSTIDE BROAD INDICES
41 0 2
VIX, D
WITH VIX SUB-15, PREEM SELLING OPPS ARE OUSTIDE BROAD INDICES

As I've posted several times before, my preference generally is to (1) sell premium in broad-based index instruments (e.g., SPY, IWM, QQQ, SPX, RUT) if VIX > 15; and (2) if VIX < 15, look for premium selling opportunities in non-index exchange traded funds with implied volatility of >35% and/or individual underlyings with implied volatility of >50% and where the ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines EWZ, D, 7 months ago
EWZ: TRADE IDEA (PREMIUM SELLING): EWZ OCT 21ST 29.5 SHORT PUT
32 0 3
EWZ, D
TRADE IDEA (PREMIUM SELLING): EWZ OCT 21ST 29.5 SHORT PUT

Here, I'm just looking to sell a little premium in the highest implied volatility, broad market underlying there is out there at the moment -- the Brazil exchange-traded fund, EWZ. The Olympics, after all, are over, and no doubt body parts will be washing up again soon on Copacabana beach, PBR will be undergoing yet another corruption/fraud/you-name-it scandal, ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines CDE, 240, 7 months ago
CDE: TRADE IDEA: CDE COVERED CALL/NAKED SHORT PUT
18 0 1
CDE, 240
TRADE IDEA: CDE COVERED CALL/NAKED SHORT PUT

Covered Call Metrics: Buy 100 shares stock at 13.68 Sell Oct 21st 14 call Whole Package: 12.36 db Max Profit: $164 (if called away at $14) ROC: 13.3% Alternative: Sell Oct 21st 12 put Probability of Profit: 71% Max Profit: $70 (if filled at the mid price) Max Loss: $1140 (if you do nothing and stock goes to $0 by expiration) Notes: The short put play would be ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines XME, D, 7 months ago
XME: TRADE IDEA: XME OCT 7TH 24.5 SHORT PUT
21 0 3
XME, D
TRADE IDEA: XME OCT 7TH 24.5 SHORT PUT

Having the highest implied volatility of all the SPDR's currently, I'm looking to sell a small amount of premium here at the 30 delta strike approximately 45 DTE as a possible alternative to doing a covered call in a mining underlying (such as GDX, GDXJ, KGC, AUY, HL, etc.). Here are the metrics: Probability of Profit: 74% P50: 89% Max Profit: .66 ...

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