optionsstrategy

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines VIX, D, 5 hours ago
VIX: THE WEEK AHEAD: EARNINGS TAKE THE STAGE
18 0 1
VIX, D
THE WEEK AHEAD: EARNINGS TAKE THE STAGE
You wouldn't have known it last week with all the inauguration hoopla, but we're in earnings season. Now that the hoopla's in the rear view mirror, earnings will take the market stage (and, yes, a bit of digesting of what all "the hoopla" meant). SPY et al. (Broad Market) From a premium seller's perspective, ...
NaughtyPines NaughtyPines SPY, D, 2 days ago
SPY: TRADE IDEA: SPY APRIL 21ST 209/212/235/238 IRON CONDOR
12 0 2
SPY, D
TRADE IDEA: SPY APRIL 21ST 209/212/235/238 IRON CONDOR
Going out to April for my core index exchange-traded fund position, since volatility "locally" (<45 DTE) blows here. Very close to getting 1/3rd the width of the wings; it'll have to do ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 54% Max Profit: $92/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $208/contract Break Evens: ...
NaughtyPines NaughtyPines GDXJ, D, 3 days ago
GDXJ: TRADE IDEA: GDXJ FEB 17TH 30/36/37/45 IRON CONDOR/FLY
16 0 1
GDXJ, D
TRADE IDEA: GDXJ FEB 17TH 30/36/37/45 IRON CONDOR/FLY
There isn't much non-earnings stuff out there that has both high implied volatility rank and high implied volatility. This is one of them. Here I'm going with an extremely narrow iron condor, such that it's almost an iron fly ... . Metrics: Max Profit: $338/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: ...
NaughtyPines NaughtyPines VIX, D, 7 days ago
VIX: THE WEEK AHEAD: SLIM PICKINGS FOR THE PREMIUM SELLER
63 0 6
VIX, D
THE WEEK AHEAD: SLIM PICKINGS FOR THE PREMIUM SELLER
With VIX at sub-12 levels, broad market implied volatility is low here, and a basic screen run for high implied volatility rank/high implied volatility yields few high quality results. Here's what I'm looking at ... . SPY et al (Broad Market) The first expiry with greater than 15% implied volatility for SPY is ...
NaughtyPines NaughtyPines VIX, D, 10 days ago
VIX: OPENING: VIX MARCH 22ND 16/19 SHORT CALL VERT
40 0 4
VIX, D
OPENING: VIX MARCH 22ND 16/19 SHORT CALL VERT
This is another one of them there "Term Structure" trades which use the VIX futures as a guide for the short call strike. Here, I'm using /VXH7, which is the March VIX futures contract, which is currently trading at 15.72, so I'm using the 16 short call in VIX. ... Filled for a .71 credit. Notes: This is a ...
NaughtyPines NaughtyPines GDXJ, D, 15 days ago
GDXJ: TRADE IDEA/EXAMPLE: A 20/10 DELTA "DYNAMIC" IRON CONDOR
35 0 7
GDXJ, D
TRADE IDEA/EXAMPLE: A 20/10 DELTA "DYNAMIC" IRON CONDOR
A creature of habit, I always sell the 20 delta when selling naked puts or setting up strangles/iron condors. Some traders like selling the 16's; some, the 30's; so I'm kind of "in between" ... . Here, I show an example of a setup where I'm selling the 20 delta call (at whatever strike it lies), the 20 delta put ...
NaughtyPines NaughtyPines UVXY, 180, Short , 17 days ago
UVXY: TRADE IDEA: UVXY (POST SPLIT) FEB 17TH SHORT CALL VERTICAL
105 0 4
UVXY, 180 Short
TRADE IDEA: UVXY (POST SPLIT) FEB 17TH SHORT CALL VERTICAL
I'm doing a little planning ahead here for the UVXY 5-1 reverse split, currently scheduled to occur on Jan 12th. Truth be told, UVXY is not one of my favorite VIX derivatives to play, largely due to options liquidity, which leads to wide bid/asks that you have to putz with in order to get filled for something ...
NaughtyPines NaughtyPines NFLX, D, 5 days ago
NFLX: OPENING: NFLX JAN 27TH 111/116/150/155 IRON CONDOR
55 0 4
NFLX, D
OPENING: NFLX JAN 27TH 111/116/150/155 IRON CONDOR
.... for a 1.21 credit. Here are the metrics for the setup: POP%: 69% Max Profit: $121/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $379/contract BE's: 114.80/151.20 Notes: NFLX announces earnings tomorrow after market close, so I would usually put a setup on "the day of." However, I don't want to space it out, so ...
NaughtyPines NaughtyPines VIX, D, 5 days ago
VIX: OPENING: VIX APRIL 17TH 17/20 SHORT CALL VERTICAL
26 0 3
VIX, D
OPENING: VIX APRIL 17TH 17/20 SHORT CALL VERTICAL
Another "Term Structure" trade, this time in the April expiry. (I currently have one of these on in March -- a 16/19 short call vert). Here, the /VX futures contract in April is currently trading at 17.10 or so, so I'm using that price as a guide for my short call strike. Looking for a fill at .75-ish ... .
NaughtyPines NaughtyPines GDX, D, 17 days ago
GDX: TRADE IDEA: GDX JUNE 16TH 18/FEB 17TH 25.5 POOR MAN'S ...
69 0 6
GDX, D
TRADE IDEA: GDX JUNE 16TH 18/FEB 17TH 25.5 POOR MAN'S ...
I'm not going to take this trade at the moment, because I'm trying to wind up current trades to move over to TastyWorks (formerly Dough). However, once I finish up that process, this is one of the trades I'm looking at, although certainly putting this on here isn't necessarily the best in terms of timing, since ...
NaughtyPines NaughtyPines NVDA, D, a month ago
NVDA: OPENING: NVDA JAN 20TH 96/101/130/135 IRON CONDOR
99 0 9
NVDA, D
OPENING: NVDA JAN 20TH 96/101/130/135 IRON CONDOR
... for a 1.09 credit. (High IVR/High IV). Metrics: Probability of Profit: 68% Max Profit: $109/contract Max Loss: $392/contract Notes: Will look to manage at 50% max.
NaughtyPines NaughtyPines XBI, D, a month ago
XBI: OPENING: XBI FEB 15TH 53/62/62/71 IRON FLY
38 0 7
XBI, D
OPENING: XBI FEB 15TH 53/62/62/71 IRON FLY
... for a 5.29 credit. IVR isn't as high as I'd like it (>70% over the preceding six months), but I'll take it ... . Metrics: Max Profit: $529 Max Loss: $371/contract Break Evens: 56.61/67.29 Notes: As will all flies, will look to take profit at 25% max.
NaughtyPines NaughtyPines VIX, D, Short , a month ago
VIX: VIX TERM STRUCTURE TRADE: VIX FEB 15TH 16/19 SHORT CALL VERT
68 5 9
VIX, D Short
VIX TERM STRUCTURE TRADE: VIX FEB 15TH 16/19 SHORT CALL VERT
The two types of trades I like in VIX/VIX derivatives are (1) a "Term Structure" trade in VIX options; and (2) "Contango Drift" trades in the derivatives VXX, UVXY, and (inversely) SVXY. A "term structure" trade capitalizes on current VIX spot price in relation to VIX futures months' prices which, the vast ...
NaughtyPines NaughtyPines SPY, D, a month ago
SPY: OPENING: SPY MARCH 17TH 205/208/234/237 IRON CONDOR
59 0 4
SPY, D
OPENING: SPY MARCH 17TH 205/208/234/237 IRON CONDOR
I used to do a lot of SPY, IWM, QQQ, and DIA iron condors as a core position, but temporarily wandered away from those given how sporadic the implied volatility has been in these underlyings. Additionally, they have nonexistent "engagement value" (i.e., they're boring), and I haven't been able to get decent premium ...
NaughtyPines NaughtyPines FXI, D, a month ago
FXI: OPENING: FXI JAN 27TH 32.5/35.5/35.5/38 IRON FLY
12 0 6
FXI, D
OPENING: FXI JAN 27TH 32.5/35.5/35.5/38 IRON FLY
Out of a Brazil play and into a China play ... . Metrics: Max Profit: $153/contract Max Loss: $147/contract Break Evens: 33.97/37.03 Notes: Will look to manage this at 25% max.
NaughtyPines NaughtyPines LULU, D, a month ago
LULU: OPTION TIP: IRON FLY INTRATRADE DEFENSE
35 0 8
LULU, D
OPTION TIP: IRON FLY INTRATRADE DEFENSE
Posted here is a live trade example of a LULU iron fly. I started this out as an earnings trade iron condor, looking for classic volatility contraction post-announcement. I got the contraction I wanted, but not the movement, as price immediately broke the short call side of my setup, after which I rolled to an ...
NaughtyPines NaughtyPines XBI, D, a month ago
XBI: OPENING: XBI JAN 20TH 51.67/61/61/70 IRON FLY
23 1 4
XBI, D
OPENING: XBI JAN 20TH 51.67/61/61/70 IRON FLY
There isn't much premium out there to be sold in index or sector exchange traded funds, but this is one of them ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 46% Max Profit: $518/contract Max Loss: $415/contract Break Evens: 55.82/66.18 Notes: I'll shoot to take profit at 25% of max ... .
NaughtyPines NaughtyPines VXX, D, a month ago
VXX: SHORT VIX DERIVATIVE PLAYS: GIVE THEM TIME TO WORK OUT
112 0 2
VXX, D
SHORT VIX DERIVATIVE PLAYS: GIVE THEM TIME TO WORK OUT
An interesting article on shorting the VIX and VIX derivatives: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bew...ick-2015-09-11 In a nutshell, backwardation occurs (which only applies to VIX derivatives, not to the VIX itself) and this can "derail" a short VIX derivative play that is not given enough time to play out and ...
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