risk-on

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, D, Long , a month ago
USDJPY: LONG USDJPY - FED & BOJ MONPOL, RISK SENTIMENT & ELECTION
249 1 7
USDJPY, D Long
LONG USDJPY - FED & BOJ MONPOL, RISK SENTIMENT & ELECTION
LONG USDJPY: 1. Slightly late posting this position but we got long at 104.5 earlier today. The rationale behind owning USD VS JPY is as follows. USD risks are bid 1) in the run up to the 2015 dec hike USD traded extremely bid with DXY breaking through 100, based on the last 2wks i expect USD to mirror 2015 and ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading XAUUSD, D, Long , 2 months ago
XAUUSD: LONG GOLD - STRAT TRADE: 99.7% PROBABILITY OF REVERSAL
361 5 8
XAUUSD, D Long
LONG GOLD - STRAT TRADE: 99.7% PROBABILITY OF REVERSAL
Long XAUUSD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) XAUUSD has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.3%, hence there is a implied 99.7% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1250 level. 3. Fundamentally I ...
Kaustubh Kaustubh USDJPY, W, Long , 2 months ago
USDJPY: USDJPY up move. Start of risk on regime?
86 4 5
USDJPY, W Long
USDJPY up move. Start of risk on regime?
Apart from the commentary in the chart, if this pans out, this would also likely mean a global risk on rally. So we may look forward to strong and sustainable rallies in equities across markets. Yields may go higher for US treasuries. This ties up well with the steady Fed rate hike scenario as well.
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading XAUUSD, D, Long , 2 months ago
XAUUSD: LONG GOLD XAUUSD: RISK-OFF ASSETS TRADING CHEAP ON US STOCK DIP
679 3 19
XAUUSD, D Long
LONG GOLD XAUUSD: RISK-OFF ASSETS TRADING CHEAP ON US STOCK DIP
Gold Positioning - Buy @ Market; 1350TP1 1370TP2 - 1 lot (small) and add double every daily close lower - 1lot, 2lots tomorrow, 4lots the next day: 1. Risk sentiment looks to be turning south, particularly in US equities which have seen monthly lows which is consistent with the broad equity valuation correction ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPJPY, D, Short , 3 months ago
GBPJPY: SELL GBPJPY: RISK-OFF SHIFT COMING? LOWER BOE MONPOL EQUILIBRIUM
387 4 15
GBPJPY, D Short
SELL GBPJPY: RISK-OFF SHIFT COMING? LOWER BOE MONPOL EQUILIBRIUM
GBPJPY: 1. Given Fed Yellen's "hawkish" market response and GBPUSD, GBPNZD and GBPAUD shorts TPd on the rally lower today cleared (FX risk book clear too), im looking to add some safe haven assets to my portfolio. 2. Looking at GBPJPY and GBP structures on the whole, there has been alot of sterling longs in the ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading DXY, D, 3 months ago
DXY: SELL GBPUSD & USDJPY: FED CHAIR YELLEN JACKSON HOLE HIGHLIGHTS
476 0 14
DXY, D
SELL GBPUSD & USDJPY: FED CHAIR YELLEN JACKSON HOLE HIGHLIGHTS
Yellen as interpreted by the market was bullish, though price action immediately following the JH Speech Highlights was anything but this clear cut and imo said alot more about what was actually said i.e. there is still uncertainty/ no clear commitment, as DXY moved higher immediately after before aggressively ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading SPX500, 60, Short , 3 months ago
SPX500: SHORT SPX: THE GRAPH SAYS IT ALL - 2145 IS RISK-FREE SELLING?
1010 17 24
SPX500, 60 Short
SHORT SPX: THE GRAPH SAYS IT ALL - 2145 IS RISK-FREE SELLING?
SPX 1. Correlation/ Technical analysis - SPX has set up the most predictable price action I have ever seen - confirmed by two EXACT 0.55% moves higher and the last 4 moves have been almost exactly 2weeks. 2. Price action currently shows exhastion has set in and there will either be 1) another bull exhastion leg 3 ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading SPX, D, Short , 3 months ago
SPX: SPX/ EQUITY BULL RUN: RISK-OFF SHIFT 10% LOWER ANY SECOND NOW
338 2 11
SPX, D Short
SPX/ EQUITY BULL RUN: RISK-OFF SHIFT 10% LOWER ANY SECOND NOW
SPX Bull run 1. Post Brexit US equities have been in an easing induced rally, with the Fed delaying hikes, BOE easing and RBNZ/ RBA also easing - this encouraged US risk markets to set new highs - with 7 of the last 9 weeks strong closes higher. The Bull run over? 1. The last 2wks have closed flat but hhave ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading SPX, D, Short , 4 months ago
SPX: SPX: BOJ MISS = BULL RUN END +2% + 2016 SAFE HAVEN TREND RESUMES
593 6 17
SPX, D Short
SPX: BOJ MISS = BULL RUN END +2% + 2016 SAFE HAVEN TREND RESUMES
End of the bull run Global Equity Indexes: 1. SPX/ Global Equity indexes in the past 2/3wks saw a post-brexit central bank easing induced rally, as many CB released dovish statements following the vote which spurred investor confidence in fresh easing. - IMO much of the bull run was based on BOJ easing hopes, ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPJPY, D, 4 months ago
GBPJPY: BOJ EXPECTATIONS: EXCEED/ HIT - LONG USDJPY; MISS - SHORT GBPJPY
346 11 8
GBPJPY, D
BOJ EXPECTATIONS: EXCEED/ HIT - LONG USDJPY; MISS - SHORT GBPJPY
BOJ Miss - Sell GBPJPY @Market price; 129tp1 - up to 800pips. 1. A BOJ miss can be considered as delivering the median expectations e.g. 10bps cut to the depo (-0.2%), 10bps cut to the LSP (-0.1%), Yen10trn increase in monthly JGB purchases & 50% Increase in Annual ETF purchases e.g. 3.3trn-5trn. Fiscal Stimulus ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading SPX, D, 4 months ago
SPX: USDJPY/ SPX: NET RISK APPETITE - THE REVERSAL OR INTERDAY TREND?
503 2 14
SPX, D
USDJPY/ SPX: NET RISK APPETITE - THE REVERSAL OR INTERDAY TREND?
- As many of you know ive been tracking/ am keen on this whole macro "net risk sentiment" theme to gauge what direction markets are heading in for the day/ week/ several weeks. - We started today as planned, with both safe havens and risk asset relatively flat, before risk-on sentiment dominated early trading with ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading EURUSD, D, Short , 4 months ago
EURUSD: SHORT EURUSD: ECB POLICY DECISION & DRAGHI SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
382 4 15
EURUSD, D Short
SHORT EURUSD: ECB POLICY DECISION & DRAGHI SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
IMO Draghi was dovish on the margin as expected - once again reiterating the ECB commitment to targets with " If Warranted, Will Act By Using All Available Instruments". Further, he was very pessimistic on many fronts, especially the ECBs key target inflation saying "Inflation Rates Likely to Remain Very Low In ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, D, Long , 4 months ago
USDJPY: USDJPY: LONG UPDATE - RENEWED JPY FISCAL STIMULUS SPECULATION?
956 7 23
USDJPY, D Long
USDJPY: LONG UPDATE - RENEWED JPY FISCAL STIMULUS SPECULATION?
I posted earlier with my 107 USDJPY breakout trade (see attached post) - one of the reasons I said to long USDJPY on the 107 break-out was due to JPY Govt stimulus speculation. In the last few hours we have seen fresh speculation of the JPY stimulus, with JPY20trn now being discussed/ proposed to be on the table - ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPUSD, D, Short , 4 months ago
GBPUSD: SHORT GBPUSD: CENTRAL BANK EXPECTATIONS - BOE/ ECB/ BOJ & FOMC
417 3 12
GBPUSD, D Short
SHORT GBPUSD: CENTRAL BANK EXPECTATIONS - BOE/ ECB/ BOJ & FOMC
Reuters Analyst Expectations: FOMC 1. IMPROVING DATA POINT TO SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE - - The Fed is very unlikely to spring any surprises at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday 27th July, but a September rate hike is a distinct possibility. The statement next week should acknowledge the ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, D, Long , 4 months ago
USDJPY: USDJPY: BUY THE 107 BREAKOUT - RISK-ON TO CONTINUE - BOJ/ BOE
421 5 14
USDJPY, D Long
USDJPY: BUY THE 107 BREAKOUT - RISK-ON TO CONTINUE - BOJ/ BOE
USDJPY: 1. Been watching $yen closely as my top 2 trades this week (along with GU). As expected/ foretasted 107 was the next key risk sentiment resistance level after 104 and after buying the 104 breakout i have confidence/ advise buying the 107 breakout - we have now crossed the 3m moving average at 106 which ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading DXY, W, Short , 4 months ago
DXY: EOW SUMMARY: RISK THE OVERALL WINNER - US30 & SPX @ 2% NEW HIGHS
527 2 13
DXY, W Short
EOW SUMMARY: RISK THE OVERALL WINNER - US30 & SPX @ 2% NEW HIGHS
End of Week Summary: 1. On the week we saw risk outperform safe havens for the first time since the brexit vote and the SPX and DJ30 set new all time highs by 2% and 1.2% respectively - somewhat encouraging given this was the longest period post-crisis that equity indexes have had since new highs, with a total ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPUSD, D, Short , 4 months ago
GBPUSD: SHORT GBPUSD @1.34 - BOE MINUTES HIGHLIGHTS - EXPECT AUGUST CUT
409 3 9
GBPUSD, D Short
SHORT GBPUSD @1.34 - BOE MINUTES HIGHLIGHTS - EXPECT AUGUST CUT
As expected BOE stood pat on their rate decision reiterating much of which was said last week by Gov M. Carney, the need for more analysis to be done is/ was key - " "Detailed Analysis" of All Policy Options Required" and "Extent Of Additional Stimulus Will Depend on August Forecasts". IMO the notes were very ...
QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, D, Long , 4 months ago
USDJPY: BUY USDJPY @104 & SELL GBPUSD @1.33: RISK-ON, POLITICS, BOJ, BOE
535 0 18
USDJPY, D Long
BUY USDJPY @104 & SELL GBPUSD @1.33: RISK-ON, POLITICS, BOJ, BOE
The Federal Reserve's regulatory point man said work to address the lessons of the 2008 financial crisis won't be complete without better regulation of short-term funding both inside and outside the banking system. St Louis Fed President Jim Bullard may be the Fed's new super dove, but he's no pessimist, he says. ...
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