Selling pound at 1.1268 stops above 1.1333 targets below 1.1068. Use proper money management.
GBPUSD Sell at 1.1717 targets at 1.1485 stops above 1.1754. Pounds is bearish the spike in price is price manipulation.
With a high inflation rate we are seeing one of Sterling's worst times, Short gbpusd at 1.1491 sl at 1.1548 tp at 1.1318 Use proper money management.
Looking to short higher (if i get filled) the GBPAUD.
Technical analysis - highly bearish: MA: 1. Just crossed the 2wk and 4wk MA - this is a bearish indication + we have been below the 3m MA for several weeks unsurprisingly since brexit. IV/ HV: 1. Realised Vols have also unsurprisingly come off, this would but bullish but brexit has distorted the longer dated HV and they are lagging - Implied vols are...
Following today's Service/ Manufacturing PMI miss (worst contraction in 88 months - since 2009) the Sterling market has come under significant pressure as BOE rate cut expectations increase with OIS rates markets pricing a 94% chance of a 4th Aug cut vs 85% before the PMI's were released. Further, the PMI misses has attracted attention from UK Politicians e.g....
IMO Mark Carney was very dovish on the margin, certainly reinforcing their/ my view of an August cut being 90% on the table. The most supportive statements were "MonPol Important In Cushioning Effects Of Any Relapse In Recovery In Months & Quarters Ahead", "The MPC Does Not Have The ''Luxury '' and "More Should Be Done To Cushion The Effects Of Negative Shocks" -...
FOMC Lockhart was the 4th Fed this week to imo be relatively Hawkish with his words, most notably reinforcing with the others brexits near-term stability saying "Doesn't Expect 'Brexit' to Have Near Term Impact on Economy" and " So Far 'Brexit' Reaction Largely Orderly". Most interestingly though was Lockharts view on the FOMC's positioning for future rate...
As expected BOE stood pat on their rate decision reiterating much of which was said last week by Gov M. Carney, the need for more analysis to be done is/ was key - " "Detailed Analysis" of All Policy Options Required" and "Extent Of Additional Stimulus Will Depend on August Forecasts". IMO the notes were very bearish and almost but 100% chance of some sort of...
1. *Id say a 6/10 dovish reaction by markets, GBP falling across the board & FTSE gaining. Carney seems contempt with a lower GBP and is happy to continue talking the currency lower in an attempt to use the exchange rate mechanism as a leading instrument to buoy UK economic stability (GDP, CPI, Unemp) against the potential Brexit backdrop; thus I continue my view...
GBPUSD - At the end of last week GU traded to lows of 1.32 on the brexit vote, before retracing substantially to 1.39 by the end of the day. - GU retraced 600-700pips after the brexit event IMO solely as investors took profit from their shorts (which causes buying) - thus there was no structural reason for GU recovering e.g. it was that 1.32 had mispriced GU...
In the previous post we have used the Price Action data from the Scottish UK Referendum for GBPUSD for the 3-days on and around the vote so the 17th, 18th (vote day) and 19th (result day) of September 2014 as a gauge to forecast whats in store for Price action on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday this week (the parallel days for both of the referendums). ...
UK EU Referendum (Brexit) vs Scottish UK Referendum Price Action Forecast: - We will use the difference in ATR and volatility between the 3-day run up into UK EU Referendum (UER) and the Scottish UK Referendum (SUR) in order to forecast what we expect price action to show on the 22nd, 23rd and 24th. 2014 SUR 3-DAY EVENT (17,18.19) 1. 1-Period ATR for the...
Indicators to check BEFORE GBP Shorting for confirmation I also suggest using two other key pieces of information BEFORE shorting GBP. 1. Use USDJPY as a measure of market risk appetite and stability - As you can see below UJ has traded with a tight 38pip range vs GBP$ at 180pips. Therefore we can use UJ as a measure of stability and risk appetite: 1)...
Thought id put a piece out as my guide for the week for how to trade the 23rd UK EU Referendum vote. IMO the first rule and most important is - DONT TRADE THE VOTE. Trying to guess the answer is like trying to win the lottery, so instead i advise taking a position on the volatility , as volatility doesnt discriminate, it trades both ways. Trading the...
This article is a tradable summary of all of the indepth GBP$ analysis i have done recently - I aim to give you a conclusive opinion and trading plan. SEE PART 2 ALSO I suggest you check out ALL of the relevant articles that i attach to this post so that this post makes sense In a nutshell i am heavily short GU, about 8-9/10 @1.44/5 (@1.41 only 2/10) -...
On the 1D time frame, a strong positive correlation relationship emerges - where previously on the 4h time-frame the correlation looked relationship-less and "noisy". However, looking back at the Daily correlation over the last 2-3 years for GU and EU one noticeable and significant trend emerges - A steep fall in correlation, either from positive-lower...