TheBanker TheBanker GBPUSD, 240, Short ,
GBPUSD: Navigating Today's FED via GBP/USD
4725 17 110
GBPUSD, 240 Short
Navigating Today's FED via GBP/USD

... expecting a new overshoot to the downside here as widely expected since last month (see attached charts) - the brexit chapters are hopefully providing you with nice reading material we are now trading 95% odds of a hike; though the impact will be softer on the dollar than most expect and impact will weight heavier on equities ... Sterling is one of the ...

TheBanker TheBanker GILD, M, Long ,
567 4 25
GILD, M Long

Another biotech to add to our basket. I'm bullish on gild after a weak few months, 7x earnings excluding r&d with the fortress HIV providing most of cash flow. Large cap with almost 100% upside All the best.

TheBanker TheBanker SPX500USD, 240, Short ,
SPX500USD: waiting for the bell...
555 1 23
SPX500USD, 240 Short
waiting for the bell...

US equities are starting to look well and truly overcooked, if we don't see a rate hike today (very unlikely) then July will come. Eyes on the rhetoric around the balance sheet today will be the key to pandoras box, in my books we are set for a mid term change of trend in US equities ... expecting a clean sweep for the 2417 handle with a tick below unlocking the ...

TheBanker TheBanker USDCAD, D, Long ,
USDCAD: this is worth $1 MILLION DOLLARS!!
2296 5 53
this is worth $1 MILLION DOLLARS!!

Another brilliant day across the currency board; exhaustion legs in sterling and Euro to see us through for the summer. Now focus shifting over to /CL, with OPEC keeping prices in current range and Canada's Q1 GDP prints being v.good this is a good opportunity to look for buys on a pullback. Tracking 1.33xx - 1.34xx like a hawk where I will look for a move back ...

TheBanker TheBanker EURGBP, 240, Long ,
EURGBP: EURGBP ... winner takes it all (Part II)
710 1 17
EURGBP, 240 Long
EURGBP ... winner takes it all (Part II)

congratulations to those who decided to read the description on the previous EURGBP idea ahead of the UK elections (related idea) ... those who decided to enter via fibs, or via price on the Long side are already in from 0.867xx ... and are perfectly positioned to add here on any spikes below via exhaustion.

TheBanker TheBanker EURGBP, D,
EURGBP: "Winner takes all" on EURGBP for UK Elections
1645 11 22
"Winner takes all" on EURGBP for UK Elections

... after what was another upsetting weekend in the city, sadly, no surprises!!! Elections now taking centre stage in UK alongside Saudi/Qatar relations. We'll wrap up the macro details in a few as I will be publishing 2 setups on EURGBP for those wishing to take part these will include references to the interpretation/context of recent numbers and politics. ...

TheBanker TheBanker VXX, D,
VXX: Risk Parity - Finance lesson 1
541 3 22
Risk Parity - Finance lesson 1

Warning Long Macro Post ahead! The aim of this post is to open the discussion on risk parity and add insight into why some of the largest macro funds in the world use the strategy of risk parity. ... It is basically an asset allocation concept. -> At what point do we have our portfolio 100% in these really ...

TheBanker TheBanker UK100GBP, D, Short ,
UK100GBP: Actively looking for entries in FTSE
1081 8 25
UK100GBP, D Short
Actively looking for entries in FTSE

Tracking this exhaustion leg like a hawk as we see inflation continue to cause problems in the UK, especially to companies with a lot of sterling exposure. Not hesitating to pull the trigger at all as the downside is wide open, as soon as we see BOE hike that will be game over... Carney starting to realise the ship has already sailed. GL

TheBanker TheBanker EURJPY, D, Short ,
EURJPY: eurjpy map for the short-term ahead of ECB
2452 26 69
eurjpy map for the short-term ahead of ECB

...As expected with French elections we saw a case of buy rumour and sell fact, inline with expectations (see previous eurjpy attached) - perfect example of exhaustion to the 124.xx handle. => outlook for short-term eurjpy is now sell => Key dates to look for with ECB 8th June Actively looking for entries here, unless things change I will be wait for Europe ...

TheBanker TheBanker ARNA, W, Long ,
ARNA: $ARNA smart money in position
461 3 30
ARNA, W Long
$ARNA smart money in position

Q4 results coming on Tuesday 4:30pm EST ... 3 phase II's this year I am buying $ARNA

TheBanker TheBanker IMMU, M, Short ,
138 0 16
IMMU, M Short

After a nice deal with SGEN last week the EV is 400m this is likely as high as it will ever get. Awful pipeline with sacituzumab (an archaic chemotherapy style) we should see this move back to sub 3 in the near term before a further push to 2.30. Time will tell!

TheBanker TheBanker EURCHF, D, Short ,
EURCHF: EURCHF seems determined to fall...
331 2 30
EURCHF seems determined to fall...

Guys... Above 1.0711 we can see a near term base for a recovery bak to 1.0726. Beyond 1.0771 is needed to mark further downside. EURCHF below 1.0711 can keep the immediate risk lower for the June 2016 spike and 61.8% retracement of the April-15/February-16 rally at 1.0623/04. Below here is needed to mark a more important top for 1.0445/40. The SNB may also ...

TheBanker TheBanker NZDUSD, W, Short ,
NZDUSD: so glad we did this!!
1439 11 38
so glad we did this!!

Morning guys, Weekend is almost over and I will be enjoying the last few hours before the markets opens and another action packed week begins. Recent rallies have been quickly sold implying NZD cannot remain at these higher levels against the dollar. November confirmed the negative momentum and after yesterdays rate further enhancing the negative outlook for ...

TheBanker TheBanker ARNA, M, Long ,
ARNA: Need more pharmaceutical investments?
784 9 28
ARNA, M Long
Need more pharmaceutical investments?

Chaps... Arena is now a pipeline company, with three phase 2's this year for now the algos have this until we get see some results and we let loose. JPM update was the golden egg, please see slides for more information ( Poor $OREX longs never learn, holders now after reading ...

TheBanker TheBanker BTCCNY, 240, Long ,
BTCCNY: Rip Van Winklevoss?
1546 9 33
BTCCNY, 240 Long
Rip Van Winklevoss?

As many of you know crypto is not my field and I would rather leave this to the experts, after many requests from previous btccny idea (see below) falling just shy of 100 cny from out 9k target we came close but no cigar. On the macro side CNY buyers have put the moon path on pause for the second half of January - 5841.68 is the flip, if we don't put our fists ...

TheBanker TheBanker DX1!, 50D, Long ,
DX1!: After The Trump USD Rally, What's Next?
785 9 37
DX1!, 50D Long
After The Trump USD Rally, What's Next?

Afternoon guys.. 2016 was a roller coast for markets. A year ago investors were in panic about deflation, indeed as the year progressed a good case inflation scenario unfolded. The market reaction following the US elections was even faster that expected. In real terms the USD is ~8% above its 20y average but still 8% below its high in 2002. Hedge funds are long ...

TheBanker TheBanker IT10, W, Short ,
IT10: Italian ATM's are being emptied, bank runs have begun
940 0 27
IT10, W Short
Italian ATM's are being emptied, bank runs have begun

when stocks crash usually money parks in stocks , we really will not see anyone rushing to Italian government here as the trust levels are just not there, we will get there but not for some time. Retail participation is also at all time lows, with danger on the public side with smart money selling bonds and running to equities . we are looking at government debt ...

TheBanker TheBanker PFE, 3M, Long ,
PFE: Pfizer
154 1 12
PFE, 3M Long

A trend change in Jan 17 is expected, pay close attention to events ahead. We have seen a 7 year rally since 2009, after penetrating the November 21st low the momentum is bearish. This is a warning to pay close detail to weak upward momentum. To date we have exceeded last years 3522 high, in order to maintain this upside we need to close above last years high ...

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