Daily is winding up to an inflection point, while the weekly is getting close as well. I'm favoring the bearish break; but there is a chance for a bullish reversal- so time will tell. What I can say is that we're approaching a conclusive point in time that will send price with signifcant momentum in either direction. When I look for an inflection point I watch for...
On this daily chart of the ratio of TBT ( Treasury Bills Bearish ) to TLT ( the inverse Bullish) over time. This serves to accentuate shifts in prices from factors affecting them both but with opposite effects. Federal actions or even reports of economic data are some of those factors. This chart shows that about November 1st, TBT ad topped out and fell....
TLT is here on a 15-minute chart. Price action is orderly and somewhat related to treasury yield fluctuations and the value of the existing securities adjusting from those fluctuations. There is adequate volatility. A straddle options strategy can be employed. Positions can be taken in both directions. Depending on price action, one leg will rise and the...
Current state of the short and long term #Yield. The 1Yr is underperforming against the 2Yr yield. However, it looks like it wants to push higher. 10Yr vs 30Yr The 10Yr is performing lil better than 30 but....... The 30Yr has a BULLISH short term crossing over longer term moving avg, RSI also looks strong. IMO yields are looking good. Seems like there is still...
Hello Traders! The FED's monetary policy is not convincing the markets, but Powell seems very determined to meet his inflation targets. In near term, market seems to want to counter this hawkish monetary policy, but that could change going forward. In short term, yields remain at high levels and I don't exclude that this rally could continue for the last bullish...
Treasury bond - 10Y US Notes came down a lot in the last two years but this cycle can now come to an end as we can see five waves down into 2023 lows ona weekly time frame. In fact, we also see five subwaves completed within wave (5) on a daily chart after prices recovered and break above the trendline resistance. The move is strong, thus we think that more upside...
Wall Street Investment banks are predicting various prices for the S&P 500 close at the end of 2024. But if the current 1-year Treasury Bill Yield is the same as the estimates then why bother buying the S&P 500? It would be safer buying bills and you may get an equal return. This piece of analysis will look at: Historical accuracy of Wall Street Banks S&P 500...
The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Monday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6553, up 0.59%. The Aussie is flexing its muscles, gaining some 3% in the past week. The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of the meeting earlier this month on Tuesday. There wasn't much of a surprise as the RBA raised rates by a quarter-point...
Ever since 2008, the world shifted more to the world of collateral and distrust, after the world of unsecured collapsed. Treasuries are dollars are in the future. As long as uncertainty remains high (or increases) there will be a place for government loans. Treasuries yielding near 5% on most maturities is "good enough" when compared to the historical 7% ish...
The British pound is drifting on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2142, almost unchanged. The UK inflation report on Wednesday was a stark reminder that inflation remains stubborn and sticky. The Bank of England has raised the benchmark rate to 5.25%, but headline inflation was steady at 6.7% y/y and the core rate ticked lower to...
The British pound is calm on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2297, up 0.10%. The UK economy has been struggling and GDP declined by 0.5% m/m in July. The markets are expecting a rebound on Wednesday, with GDP projected to rise by 0.2% m/m in August. For the three months to August, GDP is expected to increase by 0.3%, up from 0.2% in...
The British pound is higher on Tuesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2273, up 0.29%. The Bank of England's financial policy committee (FPC) voiced concern about consumer borrowing. The FPC noted that consumers were taking longer mortgages and increasing spending on credit cards in response to being squeezed by higher interest rates and...
The Canadian dollar has steadied on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3728, down 0.12%. The Canadian currency has stabilized after a nasty four-day slide, in which it declined 1.9%. The US dollar continues to look strong against the majors, as "US exceptionalism" continues to make the greenback attractive to investors. The Canadian...
The attractiveness of Gold is tarnished When cash instruments yield a positive rate of return More and more people are getting on board of higher interest rates (Dimon, Santelli) But u can see the Gold price has been inversely correlating with the rate of return for decades. It's bull run in the 2000's along with the commodity bull , coincided with real rates...
As much as we try not to repeat ideas here, occasionally, an opportunity emerges to harp on the same point. As we have previously laid out the bear case for the S&P 500 from a historical volatility behavior perspective, this week we will zoom in on other metrics showing why we think the S&P may struggle from here. The first and most interesting measure,...
NASDAQ:TLT chart mapping/analysis for med-long term swing trade strategies.
G-Morning! Shorter term yields haven't moved much as of late. Demand has slowed down & this coincides with the expectation that the #fed will be cutting rates soon. The 2Yr #yield recently caught up with the strength of the shorter term #InterestRates & looks to be settling in the area just like the others. On the other end the 10 Yr #yield has been...
Traders, In my last post I stated that BTC must absorb the price of 26,500 for the bulls to come back out and play again. It did. Now, we are running into the 50 day moving avg. which is acting as resistance and should give those of us seeking re-entry into longs a bit of time to make those entry decisions. However, I spotted something sus on the U.S....