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Unlock Trading Success with Multi-Timeframe MasteryIn trading, particularly in the Forex market, a well-defined strategy is crucial for consistent profitability. One of the most effective techniques used by successful traders is multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis. By examining price action across different timeframes (e.g., daily, 4-hour, 1-hour), traders gain a clearer understanding of market structure, trend direction, and optimal entry/exit points. This article explores how MTF analysis works, its benefits, and practical steps to implement it in your trading. 🔍1. Analyzing a Pair Across Multiple Timeframes for Clearer Trend Direction The foundation of MTF analysis lies in identifying the major and minor trends. By analyzing at least two timeframes, traders can align their strategies with the broader market direction while fine-tuning entries on shorter timeframes. ⚡The High Wave Cycle (HWC) Approach To begin, determine your High Wave Cycle (HWC), which depends on your trading strategy and timeframe. For instance: If you trade on the daily timeframe, your HWC might be the monthly chart. If you trade on the 1-hour timeframe, your HWC could be the weekly chart. The HWC helps you identify the major trend. For example, on the daily chart, you might analyze the trend using Dow Theory, pinpoint key support and resistance levels, and identify trendlines or patterns. This gives you a clear picture of the market’s broader direction. Once the HWC is defined, give it significant weight when analyzing lower timeframes for trade setups. For instance, if the daily chart (HWC) shows a downtrend, you’d prioritize bearish setups on the 1-hour chart, even if a minor uptrend appears. Example: SOLUSDT Trade Setup Consider a scenario where the 1-hour chart shows a strong uptrend. The price breaks a key resistance level and a descending trendline, suggesting a potential long position. However, checking the daily chart.. (HWC) reveals a clear downtrend. According to Dow Theory, a major trend reversal requires a confirmed break above the previous high (e.g., $150). Since this hasn’t occurred, the market remains bearish. In this case, MTF analysis guides your strategy: Reduce position size to lower risk, as you’re trading against the major trend. Take profits early, as the price could reverse at any moment. Avoid overtrading by limiting the number of positions until the trend change is confirmed. This approach ensures your trades are aligned with the bigger picture, minimizing losses from false signals. 🎯2. Spotting Entries and Exits by Confirming Trends Across Timeframes MTF analysis not only enhances risk management but also improves the precision of your entries and exits. By confirming signals across timeframes, you can filter out noise and focus on high-probability trades. Example: Bitcoin (May 15, 2021) Let’s rewind to May 15, 2021, during Bitcoin’s post-bull run correction. On the daily chart (HWC), the price formed lower highs and lows, breaking a key support level, signaling a bearish trend and a potential exit for long positions. This indicates that spot traders should sell, and swing traders on lower timeframes should focus exclusively on short positions. On the 1-hour chart, you might spot a minor pullback, tempting a long trade. However, MTF analysis reminds you to align with the daily downtrend, so you’d only consider short setups. This disciplined approach prevents you from trading against the major trend, improving your win rate. 📊The Medium Wave Cycle (MWC) for Added Clarity Between the HWC and lower timeframes lies the Medium Wave Cycle (MWC), which provides an intermediate perspective. For example, if your HWC is the daily chart, the MWC might be the 4-hour chart. The MWC helps confirm the major trend’s strength or detect early signs of reversals before zooming into lower timeframes for entries. By checking the MWC, you can filter out noise and ensure your trades align with both the major and intermediate trends. 💡Conclusion Multi-timeframe analysis is a game-changer for traders seeking consistency and precision. By combining the major trend from your HWC, the intermediate perspective from your MWC, and minor trends on lower timeframes, you can make informed decisions, manage risk effectively, and time your trades with confidence. Start by defining your HWC and MWC, analyzing the major trend, and aligning your entries and exits with multiple timeframes. Pick a pair, test this strategy on a demo account, and share your results in the comments below! With practice, MTF analysis will give you a tactical edge in navigating the markets. 🤍 btw im Skeptic :) & If you found this article helpful, don’t forget to like, share, and follow for more insights and trading strategies! <3
Education
by SkepticWise
10
TradeCityPro Academy | Dow Theory Part 3👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel! Welcome to the Educational Content Section of Our Channel Technical Analysis Training We aim to produce educational content in playlist format that will teach you technical analysis from A to Z. We will cover topics such as risk and capital management, Dow Theory, support and resistance, trends, market cycles, and more. These lessons are based on our experiences and the book The Handbook of Technical Analysis. 🎨 What is Technical Analysis? Technical Analysis (TA) is a method used to predict price movements in financial markets by analyzing past data, especially price and trading volume. This approach is based on the idea that historical price patterns tend to repeat and can help traders identify profitable opportunities. 🔹 Why is Technical Analysis Important? Technical analysis helps traders and investors predict future price movements based on past price action. Its importance comes from several key benefits: Faster Decision-Making: No need to analyze financial reports or complex news—just focus on price patterns and trading volume. Better Risk Management: Tools like support & resistance, indicators, and chart patterns help traders find the best entry and exit points. Applicable to All Markets: Technical analysis can be used in Forex, stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities, and even real estate. In the previous session, we explained Principles 3 and 4 of the Dow Theory. Be sure to review and study them, and if you have any questions, let us know in the comments. 📑 Principles of Dow Theory 1 - The Averages Discount Everything (Not applicable to crypto) 2 - The Market Has Three Trends 3 - Trends Have Three Phases 4 - Trend Continues Until a Reversal is Confirmed 5 - The Averages Must Confirm Each Other 6 - Volume Confirms the Trend 📈 Principle 5: Trends Persist Until a Clear Reversal Signal Appears Full Explanation: Dow Theory says that once a market picks a direction—like going up (bullish trend) or down (bearish trend)—it keeps moving that way until something big and obvious says, “Nope, we’re turning around!” Think of it like momentum: the market’s lazy and sticks to its path unless it gets a solid reason to switch. What’s a Trend? It’s the market’s overall direction. Uptrend means higher highs and higher lows (prices keep climbing). Downtrend means lower highs and lower lows (prices keep dropping). Sideways means it’s stuck in a range. What’s a Reversal Signal? In an uptrend, if prices stop making new highs and start forming lower highs and lows, plus break a key level (like support), that’s a sign the trend’s flipping. In a downtrend, it’s the opposite—higher highs and lows plus breaking resistance mean it’s turning up. Why Does This Happen? Markets reflect crowd behavior. When everyone’s buying or selling, the trend builds steam and doesn’t stop until the crowd’s mood shifts big-time. Key Point: Small dips or spikes don’t count. A little drop in an uptrend? Normal. You need a clear pattern or a big break to call it a reversal. Practical Use: Traders use this to avoid panic-selling on tiny moves and wait for strong signals before jumping ship. Simple Example: It’s like riding a bike downhill—you keep rolling fast until you hit a wall or slam the brakes. 📊 Principle 6: Trends Must Be Confirmed by Volume Full Explanation: This principle says a trend isn’t legit unless trading volume backs it up. Volume is how much is being bought or sold. If the trend’s real, volume should match it—high volume means lots of people are in on it, low volume means it might be fake or weak. Uptrend: Prices rising with growing volume? That’s a strong bull run—buyers are all in. Prices up but volume’s tiny? Could be a fluke or manipulation. Downtrend: Prices falling with big volume? Sellers mean business—bear trend’s solid. Falling prices with low volume? Might just be a quick dip, not a real crash. How Volume Confirms: It’s like a lie detector for trends. Big volume says, “This move’s for real!” Low volume says, “Eh, don’t trust it yet.” Extra Detail: In an uptrend, if volume starts dropping, it’s a warning—buyers might be losing steam. In a downtrend, low volume could mean sellers are running out of ammo, hinting at a bounce. Why It Matters? Dow believed volume shows the market’s true energy. No crowd, no power—simple as that. Practical Use: Traders check tools like OBV (On-Balance Volume) or volume bars. If a stock jumps but volume’s dead, they might skip it it’s a trap. Simple Example: It’s like a party if tons of people show up dancing, it’s a real vibe. If just two guys are there, it’s probably lame. 🎉 Conclusion We’ve reached the end of today’s educational segment! We’ll start by explaining all of Dow Theory’s principles, and in the future, we’ll move on to chart analysis and the strategy I personally use for trading with Dow Theory. So, make sure you fully grasp these concepts first so we can progress together in this learning journey! 💡 Final Thoughts for Today This is the end of this part, and I must say we have a long journey ahead. We will continually strive to produce better content every day, steering clear of sensationalized content that promises unrealistic profits, and instead, focusing on the proper learning path of technical analysis. ⚠️ Please remember that these lessons represent our personal view of the market and should not be considered financial advice for investment.
Education
by tradecitypro
7
TradeCityPro Academy | Dow Theory Part 2👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel! Welcome to the Educational Content Section of Our Channel Technical Analysis Training We aim to produce educational content in playlist format that will teach you technical analysis from A to Z. We will cover topics such as risk and capital management, Dow Theory, support and resistance, trends, market cycles, and more. These lessons are based on our experiences and the book The Handbook of Technical Analysis. 🎨 What is Technical Analysis? Technical Analysis (TA) is a method used to predict price movements in financial markets by analyzing past data, especially price and trading volume. This approach is based on the idea that historical price patterns tend to repeat and can help traders identify profitable opportunities. 🔹 Why is Technical Analysis Important? Technical analysis helps traders and investors predict future price movements based on past price action. Its importance comes from several key benefits: Faster Decision-Making: No need to analyze financial reports or complex news—just focus on price patterns and trading volume. Better Risk Management: Tools like support & resistance, indicators, and chart patterns help traders find the best entry and exit points. Applicable to All Markets: Technical analysis can be used in Forex, stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities, and even real estate. 📚 Recap of the Previous Session In the previous session, we explained the first two principles of Dow Theory. Make sure to review and study them, and if you have any questions, feel free to reach out to us in the comments. 📑 Principles of Dow Theory 1 - The Averages Discount Everything (Not applicable to crypto) 2 - The Market Has Three Trends 3 - Trends Have Three Phases 4 - Trend Continues Until a Reversal is Confirmed 5 - The Averages Must Confirm Each Other 6 - Volume Confirms the Trend 🌟 Principle 3: Trends Have Three Phases In Dow Theory, the primary trend (which can be a Bull Market or Bear Market) is divided into three distinct phases. These phases reflect market behavior and investor psychology over time. Here’s a detailed explanation: 📉 Accumulation Phase Definition: This phase begins when the market is at its lowest point (in a bull trend after a bear market) or when general pessimism prevails. Smart investors, professionals, and those with a long-term vision (like large funds or experienced traders) start buying. Characteristics: Prices are still low, and economic news is typically negative (e.g., recession, high unemployment). Trading volume is low because the general public lacks confidence and doesn’t participate. Price changes are small and gradual, making the market seem "lifeless" or directionless. Psychology: This phase marks a transition from despair to hope. Smart investors recognize that the worst is over and that the real value of assets exceeds their current price. Example: Imagine after a major crash like 2008, some big companies stabilize their prices, but the media still talks about "collapse." Professionals step in here. Or with Bitcoin at $16K, most people thought it was heading to zero and were hopeless! 📈 Public Participation Phase Definition: This phase occurs when the primary trend is clearly established, and the market starts moving more strongly. Economic news improves, and the general public (retail investors) enters the market. Characteristics: Prices rise quickly (in a bull market) or fall sharply (in a bear market). Trading volume increases significantly as participation grows. Analysts and media begin confirming the trend with positive reports. Psychology: Confidence in the market grows, and greed (in a bull market) or fear (in a bear market) gradually takes over. This is where market momentum accelerates. Example: In a bull market, you might see indices like the Dow Jones hitting new records weekly, with ordinary people buying tech or industrial stocks. 💰 Distribution Phase Definition: This is the end of the primary trend. In a bull market, smart investors who bought during accumulation start selling to take profits. In a bear market, panic selling subsides, and some buy in hopes of a recovery. Characteristics: Prices may still be high, but volatility increases, and signs of weakness emerge. Trading volume might remain high, but discrepancies between volume and price (e.g., price drops with high volume) appear. News is still positive, but professionals know the market is overvalued. Psychology: In a bull market, excessive optimism (Euphoria) dominates; in a bear market, complete despair sets in. This is where the trend reverses. Example: At the peak of the dot-com bubble (2000), tech stocks kept rising, but professionals began exiting, and then the crash followed. Key Note: These three phases occur in sequence, and understanding them helps analysts identify the market’s position in the larger cycle. In a bear market, the phases reverse: panic selling (like distribution), temporary recovery (like participation), and final capitulation (like accumulation). 🔍 Principle 4: The Averages Must Confirm Each Other Charles Dow believed that for a primary trend to be confirmed, two key market indices—the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA)—must move in the same direction. This principle stems from economic and logical significance in Dow’s time and is still considered a key metric. Here’s the full explanation: 📊 Economic Logic: Industry and Transportation: In Dow’s era (late 19th and early 20th centuries), the U.S. economy relied heavily on industrial production and transportation (e.g., railroads). If industrial companies (producers of goods) were growing, demand for transportation (moving goods) should also rise. Thus, aligned movement in these indices signaled a healthy economy. Mutual Confirmation: If only one average rises (e.g., industrials go up but transportation doesn’t), Dow saw it as a sign of weakness or an unsustainable trend. 🤑 Practical Application: Bullish Trend: In a bull market, both averages should reach new highs (Higher Highs). If the DJIA hits a new record but the DJTA fails to confirm and stays lower, the uptrend is questionable. Bearish Trend: In a bear market, both should hit new lows (Lower Lows). Lack of confirmation (e.g., industrials fall but transportation doesn’t) might signal the end of the downtrend. Divergence: If the averages diverge (one rises while the other doesn’t), Dow viewed it as a warning of a potential trend change. ⚖️ Technical Details: Timing: Confirmation doesn’t need to be simultaneous but should occur within a reasonable timeframe (e.g., weeks or months). Volume: Though not directly mentioned in this principle, handbooks emphasize that high volume during confirmation adds credibility to the trend. Classic Example: In 1929, the industrial average began falling, but transportation initially resisted. When transportation also dropped, the bearish trend was confirmed, leading to the Great Depression. 🎉 Conclusion We’ve reached the end of today’s educational segment! We’ll start by explaining all of Dow Theory’s principles, and in the future, we’ll move on to chart analysis and the strategy I personally use for trading with Dow Theory. So, make sure you fully grasp these concepts first so we can progress together in this learning journey! 💡 Final Thoughts for Today This is the end of this part, and I must say we have a long journey ahead. We will continually strive to produce better content every day, steering clear of sensationalized content that promises unrealistic profits, and instead, focusing on the proper learning path of technical analysis. ⚠️ Please remember that these lessons represent our personal view of the market and should not be considered financial advice for investment.
Education
by tradecitypro
5
TradeCityPro Academy | Dow Theory Part 1👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel! Welcome to the Educational Content Section of Our Channel Technical Analysis Training We aim to produce educational content in playlist format that will teach you technical analysis from A to Z. We will cover topics such as risk and capital management, Dow Theory, support and resistance, trends, market cycles, and more. These lessons are based on our experiences and the book The Handbook of Technical Analysis 🎨 What is Technical Analysis? Technical Analysis (TA) is a method used to predict price movements in financial markets by analyzing past data, especially price and trading volume. This approach is based on the idea that historical price patterns tend to repeat and can help traders identify profitable opportunities. 🔹 Why is Technical Analysis Important? Technical analysis helps traders and investors predict future price movements based on past price action. Its importance comes from several key benefits: Faster Decision-Making: No need to analyze financial reports or complex news—just focus on price patterns and trading volume. Better Risk Management: Tools like support & resistance, indicators, and chart patterns help traders find the best entry and exit points. Applicable to All Markets: Technical analysis can be used in Forex, stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities, and even real estate. Understanding Market Psychology: Charts reveal investor emotions like fear and greed, allowing traders to react accordingly. 📌 Real-Life Example Imagine you own a mobile phone shop and want to predict whether phone prices will go up or down in the next few months. 🔹 Fundamental Analysis Approach You follow the news and see that the USD exchange rate is rising, and phone manufacturers plan to increase prices. Based on this, you predict that phone prices will go up soon. 🔹 Technical Analysis Approach You analyze past price trends and notice that every year, phone prices tend to increase before the New Year. This pattern has repeated for several years, so you assume it will happen again. As a result, you buy stock before the price hike and make a profit. This example shows that technical analysis allows you to make decisions based on past market behavior without relying on external news. 📊 I ntroduction to Dow Theory Today, for the first part of our lessons, we will begin with Dow Theory, which was developed by American journalist Charles Dow. Many traders still use this method for analysis and trading. Dow Theory is one of the fundamental concepts in technical analysis, developed by Charles Dow, the founder of The Wall Street Journal and co-founder of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). This theory provides a structured approach to understanding market trends and price movements and is still widely used today by traders and analysts. Dow Theory consists of six core principles, which we will explain in detail: 📑 Principles of Dow Theory 1 - The Averages Discount Everything (Not applicable to crypto) 2 - The Market Has Three Trends 3 - Trends Have Three Phases 4 - Trend Continues Until a Reversal is Confirmed 5 - The Averages Must Confirm Each Other 6 - Volume Confirms the Trend 💵 Principle 1: Price is All You Need According to this principle, all available information is already reflected in asset prices. This includes economic data, political events, earnings reports, trader expectations, and even market sentiment. If a company releases strong earnings, its stock price might not rise significantly because investors had already anticipated this and bought in advance. ❗ Why This Is Important Technical analysts focus on price movements rather than external news since all information is already factored into the market. Instead of reacting to news, traders analyze historical price trends to predict future price movements. 📊 Principle 2: The Market Has Three Types of Trends Dow Theory states that markets move in three types of trends, each occurring over different timeframes: 1 - Primary Trend: This is the main movement of the market, dictating the long-term direction, and can last for years. 2 - Secondary Trends: These are corrective movements that run opposite to the primary trend. For instance, if the primary trend is bullish, the corrective trend will be bearish. These trends can last from weeks to months. 3- Minor Trends: These are the daily price fluctuations in the asset. Although minor trends can last for weeks, their direction will always align with the primary trend, even if they contradict the secondary trend. 💡 Final Thoughts for Today This is the end of this part, and I must say we have a long journey ahead. We will continually strive to produce better content every day, steering clear of sensationalized content that promises unrealistic profits, and instead, focusing on the proper learning path of technical analysis. ⚠️ Please remember that these lessons represent our personal view of the market and should not be considered financial advice for investment.
Education
by tradecitypro
8
DreamAnalysis | Technical Analysis Dow Theory EP03📚 Welcome to the Educational Content Section of Our Channel: Technical Analysis Training 👋 Recap of the Previous Session: In the previous session, we covered the middle two principles of Dow Theory. Make sure to review and study them, and if you have any questions, feel free to reach out to us in the comments. 📖 Today’s Focus: Let’s dive into Principles 5 & 6 of Dow Theory and explore their significance in market analysis. 🎨 What is Technical Analysis? Technical analysis is more of an art than a science. Just like art, there is no definitive right or wrong. Instead, we create rules based on experience to navigate the lawless market. Patterns in life can reflect in the markets, but we must always approach it with an artistic perspective. 📑 Principles of Dow Theory: 1 - The Averages Discount Everything (Not applicable to crypto) 2 - The Market Has Three Trends 3 - Trends Have Three Phases 4 - Trends Continue Until a Reversal is Confirmed 5 - The Averages Must Confirm Each Other 6 - Volume Confirms the Trend 📊 Principle 5: Volume Confirms the Trend Typically, when the price moves in the direction of the main trend, the trading volume increases. The same applies to bearish trends, where declining prices are supported by increasing sell volume. Low volume suggests weakening momentum. For example, in a bull market, buying volume should rise with the price, and during corrections, volume should remain steady. 📉 However, if volume increases during a correction, it may signal that more investors are turning bearish on the asset. Therefore, volume acts as a crucial indicator of the strength or weakness of a trend. 📉 Principle 6: Trends Continue Until a Reversal is Confirmed 🔄 Dow Theory emphasizes that trends continue until a clear reversal signal is observed. This means that despite short-term fluctuations or corrections, the primary market trend remains intact until there is unmistakable evidence of a change in direction. 🚩 It’s important to distinguish between temporary corrections and true trend reversals. Misinterpreting short-term declines in a bull market or temporary rallies in a bear market can lead to confusion and poor decision-making. 🎯 Conclusion: This concludes our breakdown of the 6 principles of Dow Theory. In the next session, we will review and summarize the entire Dow Theory to solidify your understanding. 📝 Important Note: These principles were developed over 100 years ago, and with today’s diverse markets, there are many different perspectives on their application. ⚠️ Please remember that these lessons represent our personal view of the market and are not financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
Education
by DreamAnalysis
DreamAnalysis | Technical Analysis Dow Theory EP02📚 Welcome to the Educational Content Section of Our Channel: Technical Analysis Training 📚 Recap of the Previous Session: In the previous session, we explained the first two principles of Dow Theory. Make sure to review and study them, and if you have any questions, feel free to reach out to us in the comments. 📖 Today’s Focus: Principles 3 & 4 of Dow Theory Now, let’s dive into Principles 3 and 4 of Dow Theory and explore them together. 🎨 What is Technical Analysis? Let’s talk a bit about technical analysis and patterns in life. Technical analysis is not a science; rather, it is an art. Therefore, there is no right or wrong in art. Instead, we apply rules we have created through experience in this lawless market. 📑 Principles of Dow Theory : 1 - The Averages Discount Everything (Not applicable to crypto) 2 - The Market Has Three Trends 3 - Trends Have Three Phases 4 - Trend Continues Until a Reversal is Confirmed 5 - The Averages Must Confirm Each Other 6 - Volume Confirms the Trend 📊 Principle 3: Three Phases in Every Trend According to Dow Theory, each major market trend is divided into three distinct phases: 1️⃣ Accumulation In this phase, large and informed investors begin buying or selling assets at favorable prices. These groups consist of individuals and institutions with significant knowledge and financial resources, often acting contrary to the majority of the market. While most market participants may not yet notice price changes, these informed investors are positioning themselves to benefit from future market movements. 2️⃣ Public Participation At this stage, most investors start recognizing the trend and begin participating in the market. The trend accelerates as public attention increases, and new capital flows in. This phase is typically characterized by a sharp rise in prices during a bull market or a sharp decline during a bear market. 3️⃣ Excess or Fear In this phase, participants jump into trades out of fear of missing out on profits or due to panic over further losses. This phase often signals the nearing end of the major trend and is usually followed by a reversal or change in trend direction. 💡 Principle 4: Different Indexes Must Confirm Each Other This principle states that the overall market trend must be confirmed by various indexes. It means that a bullish or bearish market trend can only be considered valid if other key indexes are moving in the same direction. 🔍 Example: To confirm a bullish market in a country like India, all major indexes, such as Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Midcap, and Nifty Smallcap, should be moving upward. 📝 Important Note: These principles were developed over a century ago, and it is natural that with today's diverse financial markets, there are varying views on their application. ⚠️ Please remember that these lessons represent our personal view of the market and should not be considered financial advice for investment.
Education
by DreamAnalysis
1
DreamAnalysis | Technical Analysis Dow Theory EP01📚 Welcome to the Educational Content Section of Our Channel: Technical Analysis Training We aim to produce educational content in playlist format that will teach you technical analysis from A to Z. We will cover topics such as risk and capital management, Dow Theory, support and resistance, trends, market cycles, and more. These lessons are based on our experiences and the book The Handbook of Technical Analysis, as well as our learning and insights from the Trade City Pro channel. 🎨 What is Technical Analysis? Let’s talk a bit about technical analysis and patterns in life. Technical analysis is not a science; rather, it is an art. Therefore, there is no right or wrong in art. Instead, we apply rules we have created through experience in this lawless market. 📊 Introduction to Dow Theory : Today, for the first part of our lessons, we will begin with Dow Theory, which was developed by American journalist Charles Dow. Many traders still use this method for analysis and trading. 📑 Principles of Dow Theory : 1 - The Averages Discount Everything (Not applicable to crypto) 2 - The Market Has Three Trends 3 - Trends Have Three Phases 4 - Trend Continues Until a Reversal is Confirmed 5 - The Averages Must Confirm Each Other 6 - Volume Confirms the Trend 💵 Principle 1: Price is All You Need Dow's theory operates based on the "Efficient Market Hypothesis," which assumes that the price of assets reflects all available information. In other words, this approach contrasts with behavioral economics. Factors like earning potential, competitive advantage, management competence—all are accounted for in the price, even if individuals do not know all the details. In more precise readings of this theory, even future events might be reflected in the current market price. 📊 Principle 2: The Market Has Three Types of Trends According to Dow Theory, price movements in the market are trend-based, and these trends can be divided into three types: 1 - Primary Trend: This is the main movement of the market, dictating the long-term direction, and can last for years. 2 - Secondary Trends: These are corrective movements that run opposite to the primary trend. For instance, if the primary trend is bullish, the corrective trend will be bearish. These trends can last from weeks to months. 3- Minor Trends: These are the daily price fluctuations in the asset. Although minor trends can last for weeks, their direction will always align with the primary trend, even if they contradict the secondary trend. 💡 Final Thoughts for Today : This is the end of this part, and I must say we have a long journey ahead. We will continually strive to produce better content every day, steering clear of sensationalized content that promises unrealistic profits, and instead, focusing on the proper learning path of technical analysis. ⚠️ Please remember that these lessons represent our personal view of the market and should not be considered financial advice for investment.
Education
by DreamAnalysis
1
What is Dow Theory?The Dow Theory is a financial concept based on a set of ideas from Charles H. Dow‘s writings. Fundamentally, it states that a notable change between bull and bear trend in a stock market will occur when index confirm it. The trend that is recognized is considered valid when there is strong evidence supporting it. The theory states that if two indicators move in the same way, the primary trend that is identified is genuine. However, if the two indicators don’t align, then there is no clear trend. This approach mainly focuses on changes in prices and trading volumes. It uses visual representations and compares different indicators to identify and understand trends. Dow Theory: The Dow Theory originated from the analysis of market price movements and speculative viewpoints proposed by Charles H. Dow. It served as a fundamental building block for technical analysis, especially in a time when modern software-based technical analysis tools did not exist. Robert Rhea’s book “The Dow Theory” thoroughly explores the evolution and significance of the theory in speculative endeavours, closely examining the Wall Street Journal editorials written by Charles H. Dow and William Peter Hamilton in the 19th century. This theory represents one of the earliest efforts to comprehend the market by considering fundamental factors that provide insights into future trends. The main version of the theory primarily focuses on comparing the closing prices of two averages: the Dow Jones Rail (or Transportation) (DJT) and the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI). The premise was that if one average surpassed a specific level, the other average would eventually follow suit. Dow used an analogy to illustrate this concept, likening the market to the ocean. He explained that just as waves rise to a certain point on one side of the beach, waves on another part of the beach will eventually reach that same point. Similarly, in the market, different sectors are interconnected, and when one sector shows a particular trend, others tend to follow suit as they are part of a larger whole. The Paradigms of Dow Theory: To comprehend the theory, it is essential to grasp the various rules formulated by Dow. These principles, often referred to as the tenets of Dow theory, serve as guiding paradigms Three major market trends: The tenets of Dow Theory classify trends based on their duration into primary, secondary, and minor trends. Primary trends can be either upward (uptrend) or downward (downtrend) and can last for months to years. Secondary trends move in the opposite direction to the primary trend and typically last for weeks or a few months. Minor trends, on the other hand, are considered insignificant variations that occur over a shorter time span, ranging from a few hours to weeks, and are considered less significant than the primary and secondary trends. Primary trends have three distinct phases: Bear markets can be divided into three distinct phases: distribution, public participation, and panic. In the distribution phase, there is a gradual selling off of assets by investors. The public participation phase occurs when more individual investors start selling their holdings, leading to a broader decline in the market. The panic phase is characterized by widespread fear and selling pressure, often resulting in a sharp and rapid decline in prices. On the other hand, bull markets experience three phases: accumulation, public participation, and excess. During the accumulation phase, astute investors start buying assets at lower prices, anticipating an upward trend. The public participation phase occurs as more investors join the market and buy assets, contributing to the market’s upward momentum. The excess phase represents a period of exuberance and speculative buying, often marked by overvaluation and unsustainable price increases. Stock market discount everything: Market indexes are highly responsive to various types of information. They can reflect the overall condition of an entity or the economy as a whole. For example, any significant economic events or problems in company management can impact stock prices and cause movements in the indexes, either upward or downward. Trend confirms with volume: When there is an uptrend, trading volume rises and decreases while a downtrend starts Index confirm each other: When multiple indices move in a consistent manner, following the same pattern, it indicates the presence of a trend. This alignment among indices provides a strong signal of market direction. However, when two indices move in opposite directions, it becomes challenging to determine a clear trend. In such cases, conflicting signals make it difficult to deduce a definitive market trend. Trends continue until solid factors imply the reversal: Traders should be careful of trend reversals, as they can often be mistaken for secondary trends. To avoid this confusion, Dow advises investors to exercise caution and verify trends with multiple sources before considering it a genuine reversal. How Does Dow Theory Work in Technical Analysis? The Dow Theory played a crucial role in the development of technical analysis in the stock market and served as its foundational principle. Which, approach to analysis highlights the importance of closely observing market data to identify trends, reversals, and optimal entry and exit points for maximizing profits. As the market is considered an indicator of future performance, the application of technical analysis based on the Dow Theory helps investors make profitable trading decisions by identifying established long-term, mid-term, or short-term trends. By using this approach, investors can gain insights into market dynamics and make informed decisions to enhance their trading outcomes. In conclusion: The Dow Theory has significantly influenced technical analysis in the stock market, serving as a cornerstone for its development and advancement. By analysing the careful examination of market data, this theory helps traders to identify trends, spot reversals, and determine optimal buy and sell points for maximizing profits. The market itself is considered a reliable indicator of future performance, and technical analysis aligned with the Dow Theory assists investors in making profitable trading decisions by detecting established long-term, mid-term, or short-term trends. By using this analytical framework, investors can gain valuable insights into market behaviour and make well-informed choices to improve their trading outcomes. The Dow Theory’s enduring impact continues to guide traders in their pursuit of success in the dynamic world of stock market investing. ___________________________ 💻📞☎️ always do your research. 💌📫📃 If you have any questions, you can write me in the comments below, and I will answer them. 📊📌❤️And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comment
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by khushaljain023
SPY: Don’t “Guess” the Top.We can learn a very interesting lesson by looking at the SPY chart. Anyone who tries to guess the next top or bottom is a gambler, not a trader, and as someone who has gambled a lot in the past, this rally brings back some memories. It's very easy for someone to see such an explosive movement and think: "It's already gone up a lot, it's going to have to come down soon". It's very easy to look for clues in other indicators, for example, and get excited when you see the RSI exploding close to 70. Looking for clues that reinforce a pre-existing belief is common among individuals corrupted by the "confirmation bias", which is something else, and would be content for a future article. Still talking about the RSI, it's important to mention that the RSI was already at 70 when the price was at $450. Since then it has risen by more than $20 (approximately 5%), and there is no sign of a top yet. Far from being a criticism of such an efficient indicator, this is just evidence that the use of indicators should be aligned with what we see on the chart. Top or bottom signals are confirmed when we see a clear breakout from a notorious reversal pattern. As we can see from the SPY chart below, just one or two bearish patterns, even when appears close to clear resistance, is not enough. There needs to be confirmation of a good breakout. Perhaps this is one of the reasons why so many are rushing to sell a possible top, even without confirmation. By waiting for confirmation, you sacrifice part of your profits, and amateurs hate that. To feel like a pro, you have to feel the satisfaction of buying the bottom and selling the top, all the time. Which is ironic, because that's not the focus of a professional. A real trader seeks long-term consistency. Speaking for myself, as far as I can see it's a strong rally in the SPY, and the next resistance is the all-time high at $479.98. So far, there is no clear reversal pattern for me, although I personally would like to see a correction to a support point. What if the SPY made a bearish candlestick pattern today? Just as we see on November 9, 15 and 29, and on December 6, a top signal is plausible, but we need to wait for confirmation via a breakout. Otherwise, it would just be another bear trap. Another thing I like to do is wait for a clear bearish reversal structure to appear on shorter time frames, such as the hourly chart. Uptrends are characterized by rising tops and bottoms, and the reverse applies to downtrends. When a stock is in a clear uptrend, but the hourly chart suddenly makes a lower top and bottom, it's a warning sign. If such a reversal occurs near a resistance area, all the better, as was the case with NVDA at the end of last month. One of the most overlooked principles of Dow Theory is the number 6: "Trends Persist Until a Clear Reversal Occurs". When Charles Dow, founder of the Dow Jones index and the Wall Street Journal, began working on the principles more than a century ago, he never imagined that in the 21st century there would still be traders who anticipate and don't wait for confirmation (again, I was among these gamblers in the past). Therefore, trading reversals is interesting and can be very profitable, but you need to base your decisions on technical reasons. I shared how I like to trade reversals, but there are more strategies that you can use. Feel free to share yours. That's the difference between a gambler and a trader. Moreover, remember to follow me for more content like this, and support this idea if you liked it! All the best, Nathan.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
9
DOW THEORY APPLIEDADA is showing one of the tenets of the DOW Theory. According to Dow, the market has three phases: 1) An accumulation phase 2) A public participation phase 3) A distribution phase The accumulation phase represents informed buying of the investors. The public participation phase is where the prices advance rapidly along with great news. In the distribution phase, the same "informed investors" who "accumulated" near the bottom begin to "distribute". Right now, we might expect a couple of months-long Accumulation Phase before any rally due to Public Participation. For more information on Dow Theory, you can read "Technical Analysis of Financial Markets" by Johny J. Murphy
Education
by Mr_Banker
Dow Theory: The Foundation of Financial MarketsIntroduction Dow Theory is the foundation upon which the edifice of technical analysis stands. Named after Charles H. Dow, co-founder of Dow Jones & Company and The Wall Street Journal, Dow Theory offers insights into market trends, investor psychology, and the broader economy. This article goes beyond the rudiments of Dow Theory to provide an in-depth understanding of its principles and application in modern market analysis and investing. The Genesis of Dow Theory The Dow Theory emerged from a series of editorials penned by Charles Dow between 1899 and 1902. He never compiled his ideas into a 'theory,' but after his death, followers and associates extrapolated his thoughts to give birth to the Dow Theory. Dow, a keen observer of market behavior, aimed to understand the relationship between the stock market and the economy. He hypothesized that the stock market is a reliable measure of the economy's overall health and believed it discounted all available information, including future expectations. The Cornerstones of Dow Theory Dow Theory is predicated on six basic principles: The Averages Discount Everything : All known and anticipated factors — economic, political, or psychological — are factored into the market price. The impact of unforeseen events, called 'Acts of God' by Dow, are usually short-lived and the market quickly adjusts to these. The Market Has Three Trends : Dow classified trends into three types based on duration: the Primary trend, which can last from less than a year to several years; the Secondary trend, corrective phases of the primary trend that last from three weeks to three months; and Minor trends, fluctuations within the secondary trend that last for a few hours to a few weeks. Primary Trends Have Three Phases : Dow identified three phases within a primary trend - the accumulation phase, where sophisticated investors start investing based on their economic analysis; the public participation phase, where trend-following investors join leading to substantial price changes; and the distribution phase, where the aforementioned sophisticated investors start offloading their positions, having recognized the market's peak or trough. The Averages Must Confirm Each Other : Dow stated that for a trend to be established, the Industrial and Transportation averages must confirm each other, i.e., they must reach new highs or lows simultaneously. Volume Must Confirm the Trend : Volume should increase in the direction of the primary trend. In a bull market, volume should increase when prices rise and decrease when prices fall. The opposite holds true in a bear market. Trends Persist Until Definitive Signals Prove They Have Ended : The final tenet of Dow Theory states that trends remain in effect until there are clear signals that they have reversed. Such signals are often seen in price patterns and technical indicators. Unpacking the Principles: A Deeper Dive Each of the above principles is predicated on the insights Dow derived from his years of observing the stock market. He understood that while individual stock prices may be influenced by company-specific news, the broader market reflects the aggregate sentiment of all market participants and, therefore, discounts everything — including future expectations. His classification of trends into primary, secondary, and minor was an acknowledgment of the different time horizons of investors. Long-term investors look at primary trends, intermediate investors at secondary trends, and short-term traders at minor trends. Dow's observation of market phases resulted in his classification of primary trends into accumulation, public participation, and distribution phases. This classification underscores the importance of market sentiment and psychological factors in driving price trends. The requirement for averages to confirm each other underlines the interconnectedness of different sectors of the economy. Dow believed that no significant bull or bear market could occur unless the industrial and transportation averages rallied or fell together. The principle of volume confirmation underscores the importance of investor conviction in sustaining trends. Rising volume in the direction of the trend signifies increasing conviction among investors. Finally, Dow's tenet that trends persist until definitive signals prove they have ended is an acknowledgment of market momentum and the fact that trends are more likely to continue than reverse. The Application of Dow Theory in Today's Market Dow Theory's principles can be applied in several ways: Trend Identification : Dow Theory helps identify the primary, secondary, and minor trends in the market. This can guide traders and investors in aligning their strategies with the market's dominant trend. Market Phase Recognition : By identifying the accumulation, public participation, and distribution phases of a primary trend, traders can gauge market sentiment and position themselves accordingly. Inter-market Analysis : The principle of confirmation between the Industrial and Transportation averages can be applied more broadly to inter-market analysis. For example, a simultaneous rally in stocks, bonds, and commodities might signal a strong bull market. Volume Analysis : Volume analysis can help confirm the strength of a trend. An increase in volume in the direction of the trend signals strong investor conviction. Trend Reversal Signals : Dow Theory can also help identify trend reversal signals. A divergence between price and volume, or between the different averages, can signal a potential trend reversal. The Relevance and Limitations of Dow Theory Today Dow Theory, despite being over a century old, is remarkably relevant today. Its principles form the basis for numerous trading strategies and technical analysis methods. The theory's focus on trends, volume, and the interconnectedness of markets is as valid today as it was in Dow's time. However, Dow Theory has its limitations. It is a lagging indicator, meaning it identifies trends after they have already started. It can also be subjective, as different analysts may interpret the market phases or trends differently. Furthermore, in today's globally interconnected markets, external factors such as geopolitical events or foreign market trends can influence U.S. markets, which Dow Theory does not account for. Despite these limitations, Dow Theory remains afundamental pillar of technical analysis. By understanding its tenets, traders can gain insights into market trends, investor psychology, and market phases. However, it is advisable to use Dow Theory in conjunction with other forms of analysis and not as a standalone trading system. By doing so, traders can obtain a more rounded view of the market, helping them to make informed trading decisions. Dow Theory in the Age of Algorithmic Trading and Machine Learning In the era of advanced technologies like algorithmic trading and machine learning, you might wonder how a theory developed in the late 19th century remains relevant. Interestingly, the principles of Dow Theory have been incorporated into many algorithmic trading systems and machine learning models used for market prediction. These advanced systems often use statistical and mathematical models to identify patterns that signify potential buying or selling opportunities. While these patterns might be based on sophisticated calculations, the underlying principles often align with the basic tenets of Dow Theory. For instance, machine learning models that use trend-following strategies essentially rely on the Dow Theory principle that markets have three trends. Algorithms that account for volume data to confirm a trend reflect the Dow Theory principle that volume must confirm the trend. Conclusion Dow Theory, while seemingly simple, is a profound and insightful study of market behavior. It provides a framework for understanding the forces that drive market trends, the role of investor psychology, and the interplay between different market sectors. In essence, Dow Theory is a study of market behavior at its most fundamental level. By understanding its principles, traders can gain a clearer perspective on the market's primary direction, the strength of that direction, and the potential turning points. While Dow Theory is not without its limitations and may not provide precise buy or sell signals, it is a valuable tool in the arsenal of traders and investors. When combined with other forms of technical and fundamental analysis, Dow Theory can provide a solid foundation for sound trading and investment decision-making. As the markets evolve and become more complex, the core principles of Dow Theory remain an essential guidepost. They serve as a reminder that despite short-term fluctuations, it is the broader trends that ultimately dictate the trajectory of the market. As with all trading strategies and theories, risk management is paramount. Dow Theory is no exception. While it provides an essential framework for understanding market behavior, traders must also employ robust risk management strategies to protect their capital. This includes setting stop losses, diversifying investments, and regularly reviewing and adjusting trading strategies in response to changing market conditions. In conclusion, Dow Theory has stood the test of time as a foundational pillar of technical analysis. It continues to provide valuable insights into market behavior, guiding traders and investors as they navigate the ever-changing landscape of the financial markets. As Charles Dow himself noted, "The one fact pertaining to all conditions is that they will change." With its focus on trends and changes, Dow Theory remains an indispensable tool for making sense of these changes and predicting future market direction. Hope this helped, if you have any questions, feel free to leave them in the comments!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by BiggWigg
2
Get ahead of the Game of Crypto with Dow TheoryWelcome to @TradingView , this is @Vestinda! We're excited to share with you our insights on the Dow Jones Theory and how it can benefit cryptocurrency traders. Dow Theory, also known as Dow Jones Theory, is a trading strategy developed by Charles Dow in the late 1800s. Charles Dow did not write any books during his lifetime, but he did co-found The Wall Street Journal and the Dow Jones & Company. He also wrote many editorials for The Wall Street Journal. Here is a quote from one of his editorials that is particularly insightful: "The successful investor is usually an individual who is inherently interested in business problems." Dow theory continues to dominate and is regarded as one of the most sophisticated contemporary studies on technical analysis even after 100 years. What exactly is Dow Theory? Charles H. Dow compared the stock market to the tides of the ocean in the Wall Street Journal on January 31, 1901. "A person watching the tide come in and wanting to know the exact location of the high tide places a stick in the sand at the points reached by the incoming waves until the stick reaches a position where the waves do not come up to it and finally recedes enough to show that the tide has turned." This method is effective for observing and predicting the flood tide of the stock market." Dow believed that the current state of the stock market could be used to analyse the current state of the economy. The stock market can provide valuable measures for understanding the reasons for high and low trends in the economy or individual stocks. How Does the Dow Theory Work? The Dow Theory is based on several fundamental tenets, which are outlined below: 1. The Averages Reflect Everything: The market price takes into account every known or unknown factor that may impact both supply and demand. According to this observation, the market reflects all available information, even information that is not in the public domain. However, natural disasters such as droughts, cyclones, floods, or earthquakes cannot be considered. Major Geopolitical Events are Already Priced In: All significant geopolitical events, trade wars, domestic policies, elections, GDP growth, changes in interest rates, earning projections, or expectations are already priced in the market. Unexpected Events Affect Short-Term Trends: While unexpected events may occur, they usually only affect short-term trends, and the primary trend remains unaffected. Overall, the Dow Theory emphasises the importance of analysing the primary trend of the market and understanding that all available information is already reflected in the market price. 2. The Market Has Three Trends: The primary trend: It can be as long as one year to several years and is the ‘main movement’ of the market. These movements are typically referred to as bull and bear markets. This primary uptrend is called as bullish on the other hand primary downtrend can be considered as bearish trends. The reality of the situation is that nobody knows where and when the primary uptrend or downtrend will end. As you can see in the image above when a stock is moving in primary uptrend it makes new high followed by few lows not lower than the previous lows. Similarly the same patterns follows when it is in primary downtrend. The objective of Dow Theory is to utilize what we do know, not to make chaotic guess about what we don’t know. Through a set of guidelines from Dow Theory one can measure to identify the primary trend and stay with it. The intermediate trend or secondary trend: This trend can last between 3 weeks to several months. Secondary movements are reactionary in nature, think of them as corrections during bull market, or rallies & recoveries in the bear market. In a bull market, a secondary trend is considered a correction. In a bear market, secondary trend are called reaction rallies. So suppose if a stock during its primary uptrend made a high, it will retrace back to some points to make a low (known as intermediate trend or correction). Likewise during an primary downtrend, a stock can make a high after falling for several months or years(known as bear market rallies). The minor trend or daily fluctuations: This trend is least reliable which can be lasting from several days to few hours. Dow theory suggests not to put much attention to these trends. As a Long-term investor it is just the part of corrections in secondary uptrend or downtrend rally. This are just daily fluctuations happening in market on day to day basis. It constitutes of noise in market and perhaps be subject to manipulation. Out of the three trends mentioned only primary and secondary trends are trustworthy. However, the study of daily price action can add valuable insight, if you look in context of the larger picture. So when you are looking for daily price action of several days, or weeks try to evaluate bigger structure getting formed. By putting enough attention one can certainly benefit in short term rallies. A few pieces of a structure are meaningless, yet at the same time, they are essential to complete the entire picture. 3.Major Trends Have Three Phases: Dow significantly paid attention to the primary trends (major) in which he spotted three phases. These are Accumulation phase, Public participation phase and Distribution phase. These phases are cyclic in nature and repeats over the time. A) Accumulation phase: This phase occurs when the market is in bearish trend, sentiments are negative with no hope for any upcoming uptrend. For example as we saw in Indian share market a steep low in mid cap stocks, making new lows every other day. Most of the investors see them stay in this trend for unknown time period. However, this is the time when big investors, huge fund houses, institutional investors start accumulating them gradually. This is known as smart money keeping their view for long term investment. Although you would see sellers in market still selling, they find the buyers easily. B) Public participation phase: At this phase the market have already absorbed the negativity with ‘smart money’ getting invested. This is the second stage of a primary bull market and is usually sees the largest advance in prices. During this phase majority of public(retailers) also thinks to join in as the price is rapidly advancing. However most of them are left behind due to speed in rallies as well as the averages start heading higher. If you are also a trader or investor you might have this experience and a regret of not able to participate with rally. It is a period followed by improved business conditions and increased valuations in stocks. C) Distribution phase: The third stage is the excess phase which eventually be turned to distribution phase. During the third and final stage, the public (retailers) gets fully involved in the market, as they get mesmerized by the bull market rally. Some of them who felt left will still try to look for valuations and want to be part of the rally. But this is the time when ‘smart money’ starts liquidating shares on every high. Whereas public will try to buy at this level absorbing all liquidating (sell-off) volumes made by big investors. On contrary in the distribution phase, whenever the prices attempt to go higher, the smart money off loads their holdings. This is the beginning of bear market, where sentiments will start turning negative, you will see more and more companies filing bankruptcy, change in economic growth etc. During bear market the level of frustration rises among retail investors as they start loosing all hopes. 4.The Averages Must Confirm Each Other: Dow used to say that unless both Industrial and Rail(transportation) Averages exceed a previous peak, there is no confirmation or continuation of a bull market. Both the averages did not have to move simultaneously, but the quicker one followed another – the stronger the confirmation. To put it differently, observe the image above, as you can see both the averages are in bull market, trending upward from Point A to C. 5. Volume Must Confirm the Trend: Volume is a tool to know how many shares have been bought and sold in a given period of time. It helps in analysing the trends and patterns. Now according to Dow theory, a stock must be in uptrend with high volume and low in corrections. Volumes may not be an attractive piece of information but you should try to combine the volume data with resistance and support levels to get a clear picture. 6. Trend Is expected to Be Continued Until Definite Signals of Its Reversal: Quite similar to Newton’s first law of motion which states that an object will remain at rest or in uniform motion in a straight line unless acted upon by an external force. In simple words an object will remain in their state of motion unless a external force acts to change the motion. Likewise, the market will continue to move in a primary direction until a force, such as a change in business conditions, is strong enough to change the direction of this primary move. You can also see the signals for reversals when a trend is about to change. 7.Signals and Identification of Trends: One of the major challenges faced while implementing Dow theory is the accurate identification of trend reversals. Remember, if you are following the dow theory one should be not only looking for overall market direction, but also the definite reversal signals. One of the main skill used to identify trend reversals in Dow theory is peak and trough or high and low analysis. A peak is defined as the highest price of a market movement, while a trough is seen as the lowest price of a market movement. Dow theory suggests that the market doesn’t move in a straight line but from highs (peaks) to lows (troughs), with the overall moves of the market trending in a direction. An upward trend in Dow theory is a series of successively higher peaks and higher troughs. A downward trend is a series of successively lower peaks and lower troughs. 8. Manipulation In the Market: According to Charles dow the manipulation of the primary trend is not possible. where as Intraday, or day to day trading and perhaps even the secondary movements could be vulnerable to manipulation. These short movements, from a few hours to a few weeks, could be subject to manipulation by large institutions, speculators, breaking news or rumors. There is possibility that speculators, specialists or anyone else involved in the markets could manipulate the prices in short run. Individual shares could be manipulated for example the security rise up and then falls back and continues the primary trend. With this in mind one need to be aware of the situations while trading and investing. However, it would be next to impossible to manipulate the market as a whole. The market is simply too big for any kind of manipulation to occur. Why Dow Theory Is Not Infallible? Dow Theory is not a sure-fire means of beating the market hence it is not something which is infallible or fault-less. Some of the criticism received about Dow Theory is that it is really not a theory. Charles Dow's principles and theories, while developed for the stock market, can still be applied to crypto investing. Here are a few ways his knowledge can be used: Follow the trend: Dow's first principle is that the market moves in trends. In crypto investing, you can identify trends by looking at price charts and technical analysis. If the price of a particular cryptocurrency is in an uptrend, it may be a good time to consider buying. If it's in a downtrend, you may want to consider selling or waiting for a better entry point. Consider market breadth: Dow's second principle is that the market's movements should be confirmed by market breadth. This means looking beyond just the price of one cryptocurrency and examining the overall health of the market. For example, if a particular cryptocurrency is in an uptrend but the majority of other cryptocurrencies are in a downtrend, it may not be a sustainable trend. Use volume as a confirmation: Dow's third principle is that volume should confirm the trend. In crypto investing, volume can provide insight into the strength of a trend. For example, if the price of a cryptocurrency is increasing with high volume, it may indicate a strong uptrend. On the other hand, if the price is increasing with low volume, it may not be a sustainable trend. Be aware of market cycles: Dow's fourth principle is that the market moves in cycles. This means that there will be periods of growth and periods of decline. In crypto investing, it's important to be aware of these cycles and adjust your strategy accordingly. For example, during a bull market, you may want to focus on buying and holding, while during a bear market, you may want to consider shorting or staying on the sidelines. Overall, while the crypto market is different from the stock market, many of Dow's principles can still be applied to crypto investing to help you make more informed decisions. In conclusion, Dow Theory, developed by Charles Dow in the late 1800s, remains one of the most respected theories in financial market history. The theory's primary tenets are based on the idea that the stock market reflects all available information, and there are three trends in the market: primary, intermediate, and minor. The primary trend is the most important and can last several years, while the intermediate trend and minor trend are reactionary in nature. Dow Theory provides an excellent framework for traders and investors to evaluate the current state of the economy, and it has remained relevant even after 100 years. Whether you are an intraday trader, a short-term trader, or a long-term investor, the knowledge of Dow Theory will undoubtedly help you develop various strategies for your investments. So, in conclusion, Dow Theory is a respectful theory that has stood the test of time and continues to be an essential tool for anyone who trades or invests in the financial and crypto market. Unleash Your Inner Trader — Read Story About Bulls and Bears That Will Change Your Mindset! Hey there, our lovely friends! 😊 If you enjoyed reading this, please hit the "like" button 👍 and share it on your social media and groups. By doing so, more people can discover this interesting information, and we'll be encouraged to create even more awesome content for you! ♥️
TEducation
by Vestinda
15
what is the difference between trend lines ?? as u can see here in ethusdt there are four trend lines ( three of it are main ) first of all what is trend line categories :- 1- major trend."primary trend" 2- secondary trend ." intermediate trend" 3- minor trend ." near term trend " _ ( major trend ) dow theory classifies the major trend as being in affect for longer than ayear and it differs from market to another as example in the commodity markets major trend is anything over six monthes . _( secondary trend) dow defined this trend as three weeks to as many monthes and its the same for the futures market. _(minor trend) this defined as anything less than two or three weeks. *i hope its short and informative.
Education
by alieltahan33
💡🎓 Dow Theory & Bitcoin 🎓💡To share awareness for the beauty and history of our art of Technical Analysis of financial markets, in this educational post, I look at the six fundamental principles of Dow Theory, applied to Bitcoin and its current macro/local trends. Dow Theory Principles; 1. Markets Discount Everything 2. The Market has 3 Trends 3. Major Trends have 3 Phases 4. Markets must Confirm Each Other 5. Volume must confirm the Trend 6. A trend is assumed to be in effect until is shows clear signals it has reversed [Below is a summary of who Charles H. Dow was and his impact, by John J. Murphy; “ Charles Dow and his partner Edward Jones founded Dow Jones & Company in 1882. Most technicians and students of the markets concur that much of what we call technical analysis today has its origins in theories first proposed by Dow around the turn of the century. Dow published his ideas in a series of editorials he wrote for the Wall Street Journal. Most technicians today recognize and assimilate Dow's basic ideas, whether or not they recognize the source. Dow Theory still forms the cornerstone of the study of technical analysis, even in the face of today's sophisticated computer technology, and the proliferation of newer and supposedly better technical indicators. On July 3, 1884, Dow published the first stock market average composed of the closing prices of eleven stocks: nine railroad companies and two manufacturing firms. Dow felt that these eleven stocks provided a good indication of the economic health of the country. In 1897, Dow determined that two separate indices would better represent that health, and created a 12 stock industrial index and a 20 stock rail index. By 1928 the industrial index had grown to include 30 stocks, the number at which stands today. The editors of The Wall Street Journal have updated the list numerous times in the ensuing years, adding a utility index in 1929. In 1984, the year that marked the one hundredth anniversary of Dow's first publication, the Market Technicians Association presented a Gorham-silver bowl to Dow Jones & Co. According to the MTA, the award recognized "the lasting contrbution that Charles Dow made to the field of investment analysis. His index, the forerunner of what today is regarded as the leading barometer of stock market activity, remains a vital tool for market technicians 80 years after his death. Unfortunately for us, Dow never wrote a book on his theory. Instead, he set down his ideas of stock market behavior in a series of editorials that The Wall Street Journal published around the turn of the century. In 1903, the year after Dow's death, S.A Nelson compiled these essays into a book entitled The ABC of Stock Speculation. In that work, Nelson first coined the term "Dow's Theory." Richard Russell, who wrote the introduction to a 1978 reprint, compared Dow's contribution to stock market theory with Freud's contribution to psychiatry. In 1922, William Peter Hamilton (Dow's associate and successor at the Journal) categorized and published Dow's tenets in a book entitled The Stock Market Barometer. Robert Rhea developed the theory even furtherIn the Dow Theory (New York: Barron's), published in 1932. Dow applied his theoretical work to the stock market averages that he created; namely the Industrials and the Rails. However, most of his analytical ideas apply equally well to all market averages. “ John J. Murphy, Technical Analysis for the Financial Markets, 1999, Page 23-24 What are your thoughts? yemala
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Yemala
7
Dow Theory, AppliedDow Theory is a foundational set of principles that underlies modern technical analysis. One of the main tenants of the theory involves trend confirmation by comparing similarities between equity indices' price behavior. Originally, the Dow Transportation Index was used to confirm trend direction in the Dow Industrial Index. Now things are a bit more complicated, with multiple indices covering a wide array of sectors and ever-evolving niche technologies. To get a confluence of direction across the four major American indices (DJI, SPX, IXIC, RUT) to close the week has not been a simple task. I believe this is one of the reasons why a systemic selloff has been delayed in spite of the increasingly opaque economic picture. There are just too many cross-correlates that offset each other on the basis of what each sector "should" do in such-and-such situation. For example, the notion of fleeing to technology as a safety measure may have manifested as a "real" reaction in the middle of 2020, but it was the media's promulgation of such an idea that popularized it into today's common market wisdom. In any case, I would argue that fleeing into tech will work until it doesn't - and that day is looking closer by the hour. Literally. Just take a look at the four charts displayed above - each of the four indices mentioned sports a bearish hourly candle to close the week. While this is subtle information, I was able to see the price action from a tape reader's point of view, and I will tell you that the price movement during this last hour was categorically different than any I have seen in months. This was real selling; institutional selling en masse. Each of the four underlying ETFs were seemingly stuck in quicksand for an hour and in order to confirm this back=end observation, I turned to the charts after the close. The results depicted above depict consistent heavy selling across all four indices, in the form of nasty looking candles to close the session. Charles Dow and his then-clever, and now-accepted theory, would point to this as a prime example, were he still trying to convince the world of its validity. While nothing is certain in markets, this is some pretty compelling data suggesting that, at the very least, there will be some serious volatility for the first time in a long time. I'm short, but it's not so simple with the other side being a hysterical bubble and all. My suggestion is to get creative and take advantage of the four-way confirm. -ConfirmPig TVC:IXIC CURRENCYCOM:US100 TVC:SPX CURRENCYCOM:US500 TVC:DJI CURRENCYCOM:US30 AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT
TEducation
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
4
Introduction to Dow TheoryThe Dow Theory is the core of contemporary technical research. Its premises have stood the test of time and underpin the study of market behavior research. The basic principles of Dow Theory and their importance in today's markets will be discussed in this article. Origins and History of the Dow Theory Many of the early studies that contributed to what is now known as Dow Theory is credited to Charles H. Dow. Dow's successor, William P. Hamilton, continued to establish and organize many of Dow's initial early publications, including the Wall Street Journal editorials written at the turn of the twentieth century. Robert Rhea, a Hamilton student, was later responsible for categorizing, refining, and formal codifying Dow's fundamental principles, which were set out in Rhea's book The Dow Principle. In 1884, Dow reported an 11-stock stock market average, which he later extended into a 12-stock Industrial Index and a 20-stock Railroad Average. Instead of attempting to gauge market activity by individual stock movement, Dow decided to build an index of stocks that would better represent the aggregate action of the markets. The averages' movement was intended to serve as a barometer of the overall business environment. Since then, the 12-stock Industrial Index has morphed into the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which now contains 30 stocks. Market trends according to Dow Theory Robert Rhea explains in this book that three distinct patterns are considered to prevail in the market according to Charles H. Dow. 1. Primary trend – that lasts from months to years 2. Secondary reaction (intermediate trend) – weeks to months in duration 3. Short term trend – days to weeks The Primary trend The primary pattern is by far the largest, and it is typically predicted to last months to years. Main trends, according to Rhea, are less vulnerable to distortion and therefore provide a more accurate indicator for investment decisions. There are 2 types of primary trends: primary bull trend and primary bear trend . An uptrend is described in Dow Theory as a series of successively higher highs and lows. The concept "downtrend" refers to a sequence of lower highs and lows. Primary trends have 3 phases. A primary bull or bear trend consists of these 3 phases: a) Accumulation phase b) Trending phase c) Distribution phase Accumulation usually happens after a sharp and fast drop in values, usually as a result of companies releasing extremely negative results. At this point, the uninformed market participants are normally incredibly bearish, selling whatever shares they have left at any amount. Market investors who are well informed and trained continue to buy shares at incredibly low levels. The uptrend and downtrend phases make up the trend process. After a sustained and dramatic rise in prices, distribution usually occurs. Both newspapers and news reports are extremely bullish, and businesses appear to outperform. Uninformed market traders are prone to being too bullish, buying up whatever shares are available in the market at any expense, a condition known as excessive exuberance. Margin debt is at an all-time high. During the distribution process, smart investors begin to liquidate shares steadily, taking care not to push down rates too fast so that they can continue to sell at higher prices. The secondary trend or reaction The secondary trend or reaction moves or reacts in the opposite direction of the existing primary trend. It normally lasts a few weeks to three months, but it can last a little longer in some cases. The secondary reaction typically retraces one-third to two-thirds of the spectrum of the primary trend. Any retracement or reversal of more than two-thirds of a percent on big volume typically suggests that the secondary response is a new primary bear market. Dow Theory further emphasizes the value and psychological meaning of the 50% retracement stage, which is a viewpoint held by another influential technician, W. D. Gann. The minor trend Minor patterns aren't taken into account in Dow Theory. “The stock market is not rational in its fluctuations from day to day,” Hamilton wrote in his book The Stock Market Barometer. Minor patterns will last anywhere from a few days to a few weeks. Trade with care. If you like our content, please feel free to support our page with a like, comment & subscribe for future educational ideas and trading setups.
TEducation
by financialflagship
29
Dow TheoryCharles H. Dow (with Edward Jones and Charles Bergstresser) founded the Dow Jones & Company Inc. and developped the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the big new thing back then were big industries, now it is big tech giants Apple Amazon Google Facebook... Next is going to be renewables and biotech nah just kidding next is a huge recession and WW3 and the end of modern civilisation too late to save the world). Dow created a theory that he descrobed in editorials in the Wall Street Journal (which he dounded): 1. The market prices everything. Whether the participants know it or not. Even future events are priced in in the form of risk. 2. There are 3 kinds of market trends. Primary trends 1 year or more (bull or bear markets of different magnitude, consolidation). Secondary trends are pullbacks in a bull market and rallies (sharp ones) in a bear market. Last kind of trend < 3 weeks is basically noise. (Personal remark: for currencies & commodities this is different imo. For the stock market this is valid and has been for centuries) 3. Primary trends have three phases. Accumulation, public participation, excess phase in a bull market. In a bear market distribution, public participation, and panic (or despair) are the 3 phases. Check Elliot Wave theory too. 4. Indices must confirm each other. Dow used the DJIA and DJTA (transportation) indices. Now look at well the 3 USA ones and the other continents too... 5. Volume must confirm the trend. Low volume indicates a weakness in the trend. It should go up as price is going up. 6. The trend stays the primary trend until there is a CLEAR reversal. (Tell that to FOMO moonboys) Let's look at exemples of market cycles. 2012-2015: 2017-2021 on the linear chart: All time, several ways to see it: 2018-2019: Best to just look at examples: Looking at volume... It's really not clear. The rule needs to be removed or changed. With Bitcoin in the excess phase we clearly saw an explosion, and then decline. And that was the top. Each market works differently but these cycles are seen everywhere. I wanted to look at the new one, Bitcoin. Let's look at a few other ones. Sugar ==> Dow Jones ==> Gold ==> Copper ==> EuroDollar ==> Tesla ==> Movie pass (LOL) ==> Rektcoin ==>
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
9
Part 2: Principles of the Dow-TheoryOne of the most influential instruments for analysing the financial markets is the Dow theory from Charles Dow. This theory has six principles: 1. everything is processed in the indices or market averages; 2. the market has three trends; 3. each primary trend consists of three phases; 4. the market averages must confirm each other; 5. the volume must confirm the trend; 6. a trend remains intact until there are definitive signals that it is reversed. @1: everything is processed in the indices or market averages All the information is processed within the prices. The historical price is the only objective information what the technical analyst has. @2: the market has three trends; Primary trend: longer than 1+ year Secondary trend: correction within the primary trend Mino trend: Shorter than three weeks upward trend : This are series of higher higs; downward trend : Serie lower lows; @3. each primary trend consists of three phases; 1. the first phase/accumulation phase : big investors buying in, the market is not well known yet 2. second phase (all prices starting to rise): trend-folowwing investors steps in 3. third phase/distribution phase (when there is more positif news, the not initiated investor steps in): In this phase nobody wants to sell because the prices are rising very hard, only the big investor takes their profit in this phase. @4. the market averages must confirm each other; The market averages has to confirm each other. I'm looking at the total market movement.. When u follow the market u see that the average of the market is moving the same direction.. This confirms the trend direction.. @5. the volume must confirm the trend; If the primary trend goes up, the volume should increase, downward corrections will take place with less volume. A decrease in the primary trend is usually accompanied by more volum, while we should see less volume with the upward corrections. @6. a trend remains intact until there are definitive signals that it is reversed. The next figures shows the end of the trend. When to Sell?? "failure swing" : The new top B is not capable of getting higer than the previous top A. After that the price is getting down , when it reaches S this is an signal for selling! Nonfailure swing : C becomes higher tan previous top A. But after that it goes down under B. S1 is the first position where to sell youre share. If you missed S1 then take S2 for stepping out. Now whe know when we have to sell, but we know when to buy before we can sell.. This figures shows our first buying target... This is how we can search our buying target!! When to buyl?? "Failure swing bottom" : This image shows how you can recognize an uprising trend. The price sets for the first time a higher low (C is higer than A), we set our buying target on B. After the price goes above B the uprising trend will start. "Nonfailure swing bottom" : Here we see the price is getting lower (C is lower than A), but after that the price goes above the stopover (B).. In this case u can see this as the first signal for a bullish market, place buy order at B1.. If you want confirmation (this could lead for missing B1) of an bullish market, then wait for E.. When E is higher tan A, this is an confirmation of bullish market.. Then place your Buy orders... This are all signals what u can use for finding the trend withing the market. It is hard to say when the market is turned. There are a lot of different opninios about the trend and charts by using technical analysis... The dow theory does not give you any certainty or guaranty.. This is just a tool to get a signal for the market.. It is up to u what to do with it.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by NLTR_crypto