Market positioning data from the COT report shows that asset managers and large speculators are piling into longs, yet shorts remain subdued. The price on the 4-hour chart also shows an established uptrend within a bullish channel. Prices have not yet completed a 3-wave retracement against the trend, hence the bias for a slightly deeper pullback before its trend...
Crude oil has been grinding higher since the December low, but after a 4-week period of choppy trade momentum has turned higher. Whilst $80 has been a tough level to crack in recent week, we suspect a breakout is now on the cards - 200-day MA has provided dynamic support - Falling wedge into 200-day MA - Bullish range expansion out of the falling wedge - RSI...
Momentum has clearly been in favour of bears over the past week for WTI traders, but given it has fallen over 10% from the January high it could be argued the move is oversold (at least over the near term). A doji formed on Monday to show bears are losing their grip, and the fact it is forming a base above the 2023 open price and $72 handle adds to the case for...
The core bias remains for a move up to $77, but as price action during the current rally on the 1-hour chart is choppy and has stalled near resistance, we're looking for a dip lower to around $73. Also note that the weekly and monthly pivot points are hovering above the 10/20-day EMAs, which adds conviction that an interim top may be about to form.
Price action has been very choppy on the daily crude oil chart, but if we place a line chart over the top is shows prices are trying to break out of a small triangle / pennant. Whilst these are usually expected to be continuation pattern, they can also make decent reversal pattern. And this case, we've see prices hold above $70 on a closing basis, and the lower...
TVC:USOIL chart mapping/analysis. Crude Oil reversing all gains manufactured by OPEC+ production cuts & Middle-East conflict premiums, while threatening to further capitulate due to growing macro headwinds leading into 2024.. Trading scenarios into EOY: Bullish resurgence = rally above horizontal resistance line (yellow dashed) into 23.6% Fib & upper range...
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE chart mapping/analysis for last week of November. TBC further details/write-up via ideas section.
NYMEX:CL1! chart mapping/analysis. Note: TradingView chart B-ADJ adjusted for contract changes. What's on the chart: Converging parallel channels (light blue) aka diamond box pattern, framing price action into a pennant formation on higher timeframe. Descending parallel channel (white) emphasizing current downward trend since late September peak. ...
NYMEX:CL1! intraday mapping/analysis. Crude Oil Futures finding support on Golden Pocket + lower range of descending parallel channel (white dashed) confluence zone after flat bottom break, while hovering above lower range of ascending parallel channel (green) + 66% Fib confluence. Price action accumulating while digesting recent sell-off Bias leaning...
NYMEX:CL1! chart mapping/analysis. Note: TradingView chart B-ADJ adjusted for contract changes Crude Oil Futures capitulating from early October rally despite ongoing Middle East tensions & geopolitical uncertainty. Only macroeconomic narrative/headwind that would override war escalations is increasing probability of global recession-induced demand...
Updated 30/09/23: - Revised up-trending parallel (green) - Added down-trending/consolidation parallel (white) - Added horizontal lines (yellow/dashed) to mark upper/lower range (94.239-87.829) Everything else stays the same (chartist holy grail lol). Notes: - Further write-up on Daily Swing V2 Chart - Faded out longer TF parallel lines (light blue) TradingView...
Updated 30/09/23: - Revised up-trending parallel (green) - Added down-trending/consolidation parallel (white) - Added horizontal lines (yellow/dashed) to mark upper/lower range (94.239-87.829) Everything else stays the same (chartist holy grail lol). CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE has done an amazing job respecting its upward parallel channel since June. Could see...
Whilst we retain our view that oil prices could be headed for $100 further out, the trend seems to have hit a speed bump over the near-term. WTI broke above $90 with ease yet faltered around $95 with a shooting car candle with high volume (which makes it a potential key reversal day). A bearish divergence has also formed with the RSI (2) after it reached...
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE chart mapping/analysis for short-term swing trades.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE chart mapping/analysis for med-long term swing trades.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE inverse H&S development on 15min chart, TBC. Breakout above ~91.10 for confirmation. Capitulation below ~89.50 (right shoulder) invalidates pattern. TP target ~93.50 upper trend-line confluence.
The more we look at market positioning on WTI, the more we suspect that oil may be dominating headlines as we head into 2024. In recent weeks we can see that large speculators and asset managers have been increasing long exposure and reducing shorts, which is the ideal scenario for a bullish trend. Yet net-long exposure for both sets of traders remains low by...
Short term chart mapping/analysis of CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE for developing Intraday Trade strategies. NYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:CL2! TVC:USOIL TVC:UKOIL