This post was encouraged because of the Economic Forum being held in Davos, Switzerland.
The last 3 years (roughly since mid 2017) contained talk around trade war. This has caused chaos within the markets. We have moved up and down 1000's of points with no specific direction.
It seems that September 2019 has shown the true colors of the market sediment. We can...
The Current Economy with high debt, Repo's, low inflation & GDP Growth rate, is not ready for higher interest rates. A very important area for Bond Yields.
Historically after an inversion of 10/3 month yield, higher interest rates have been accompanied by higher unemployment and falling stock prices.
There is a map of a consolidation for US 10-year yield.
The range is quite volatile between 1.50 and 2.00.
The wave B should complete with a drop to the 1.50 and then wave C could unfold up to 2.00.
After that the drop should resume to retest 1.34.
Short Term Elliott Wave structure in 10 Year Notes (ZN_F) suggests the pullback to 129.28 ended wave IV. The note has resumed higher in wave V. The internal subdivision of wave V is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 129.28, wave 1 ended at 131.19 and wave 2 ended at 130.26. Internal of wave 2.
The Note has resumed higher and broke...
The 10 year yield is currently hovering around the 3.2 to 3.3% support levels. I expect wave 5 to push past these levels and reach up to 3.75-3.80% in yield by August 2019 (or sooner). At that point I expect a new round of QE from the Fed.
As the stock market starts to stumble, people look for safe places like Bonds, all those bond purchases drives the USD higher since you need to buy them in USD so it creates greater demand, this increase in USD would normally be bad for Gold. But Gold is actually going up right now since it is safe haven asset, that demand is off setting the negative effects of...
Using Cycle Analysis we can see multiple Intermediate Cycle Lows (ICL) of about 4 to 5 years in duration with the next one due in the second half of 2020. The next event that will signal the direction of rates is if the 10 YR Bond breaks the upward cycle trend line from the last ICL. This could occur two ways: the bond moves sideways and breaks the trendline in...