ETH to $9,690 by Q1/Q2 2026?ETH is going to outperform BTC
Let me tell you a story about the future.
You might hate it. You might think it’s delusional. And honestly, that’s fine. Markets are not moved by consensus, they are moved by those willing to be early, heretical, and delusional. Only someone with real skin in the game can afford that posture.
One thing people keep missing: BTC/ETH already had its euphoric phase.
ETH/BTC pair bottomed. Both did so in April ’25.
From that point, ETH entered a reflexive loop. Price action validated narrative, narrative attracted capital, capital reinforced price. In roughly 140 days, ETH moved from the ~$1,400 April lows to ~$4,900 ATHs. Not randomly, but alongside the emergence of a new structural buyer.
BitMine, led by Thomas Lee, has positioned itself as the “MicroStrategy of Ethereum.” In plain terms, a corporate entity explicitly focused on maximizing ETH per share via aggressive treasury accumulation and native protocol participation. As of today Bitmine holds approximately 4.17 million ETH, which accounts for roughly 3.45% of the total global Ethereum supply. Their stated ambition is to accumulate up to 5% of total circulating ETH supply. They have staked approximately 1.26 million ETH and plans to launch its own in-house validator network, MAVAN, in Q1 2026 to generate staking rewards.
As ETH rallied aggressively during Q2/Q3 2025, leverage built, profits were taken and then came Q4 and the 10/10 deleveraging event. ETH corrected ~47% off the highs. That correction was not a failure. It was a requirement. Every sustained move needs sellers. Weak hands must exit for strong hands to accumulate.
A drawdown destroys belief just as efficiently as it once created it. Price weakness feeds doubt, doubt feeds selling, selling creates opportunity for entities that are insensitive to short-term volatility. Throughout this process, bitmine kept accumulating quietly. long-term holders absorbed supply and ETH moved from impatient hands to patient ones.
Add to that the steady 9 figures ETH ETF inflows over the past few weeks, and it reinforces it. We’ve seen this movie before. This is where reflexivity flips.
In early 2016, ETH was less than seven months past its ICO launch (July 2015). BTC went sideways with a negative Sharpe profile through much of Q1. ETH did not care. It rallied independently, stretching roughly 1,500% from January to April 2016, massively outperforming BTC despite a sluggish macro backdrop.
Today, when you look at all major pairs (BTC, SOL, XRP, BNB) all tagged or violated April quarterly support. With the only exception of BNB that also held. ETH retraced, yes, but it never took prior quarterly lows. Relative strength is not a myth. It is observable behavior.
This is how leadership changes.
ETH does not need BTC to collapse. It simply needs BTC to stagnate. Go sideways. When the marginal dollar stops chasing safety and starts seeking asymmetry, ETH becomes the obvious vehicle. The market is already telling you this, quietly.
Reflexively, disbelief is now fuel. Underperformance becomes expectation. Expectation suppresses positioning. And suppressed positioning is precisely what enables violent upside.
I believe ETH is entering another window of sustained outperformance versus BTC. Catalysts may emerge. Existing ones may intensify. Or nothing may happen at all, except price violently repricing... this while most crypto investors and most def Solana manlets; cope & seethe on the sidelines.
That’s how it usually works.
There's nothing new under the sun. Time is not linear in markets.
And sometimes, it circles back exactly where it started. Time is a flat circle.
Long
