This is a follow up of the last elliott wave analysis published 8 months ago www.tradingview.com
The basic change is in the extended 5th.
The diagonal as we expected did not work due keep the original wave count as originally stated is impossible due now will see the 3rd wave as the shortest. This can't be even in diagonals.
So the best...
The AUDUSD is poised to break below it's support.
The last polls shows 5 times more analyst expecting a rate cut of 25bps for the next April 7th meeting than the previous weeks.
78% chances for rate cut priced by the Mkts (Rtrs).
Even when previously have more preference for the gray wave count, the break below the wave ii (gray) discard this
idea and places more...
As you could remember during the last Greek crisis the Bund Yield fell even to negative territory, this was due the haven factor in the biggest economy in EZ
Now that every body says that the situation is much better than in the 2012 the Yield (as you can see in brown, remember that the price of Bund is inverse to it's yield) is even lower. Why?
The mail reason...
If we take a look from 2006 the full view seems very probably we are in a expanded flat.
Actually the decline from 4.6480 seems to be the 1)) wave o a C] wave
The decline have several hints to confirm this view:
Wave 4th has a near to 50% retracement and is in a contractile triangle shape
Wave 5th is the extended one and are near to its 61.8% portion of...
After a elongated rally is not rare to find an ending contractile diagonal.
Usually this create a snap reverse.
Usually this pattern exceeds the 1-3 line when form it's 5th wave
In this scenario the 1 to 1.618% proportion for wave 5)) increases the odds of the turning point.
Now the 4th wave in the EURUSD decline shows what could be a nice example of equivalent to an extension for triangles: a triangle in a triangle.
Could sound confusing but its really simple: When a triangle is forming under elliott wave perspective, some times one of it's waves instead to be a zigzag (the most commonly accepted structure inside it) forms a new...
Daily Elliott Wave Count
The simetry in the elliott wave analysis is not a rule but an important guide to reduce de guess work to determine if a wave structure had been completed or not.
In this case, as we expected a clear retrace had been done since the end of the impulsive pattern for wave 3) with a nice fibonacci's level of 38.2 (the most common level of...