Retail Diesel – Monthly: Currently resting at monthly support of 5.31. (Ichimoku indicator not shown) Daily and weekly swings above and below the blue Tenkan line should be expected. A monthly close below could open the door to the red Kijun line at 4.09. This would be very strong support on a monthly scale.
There was a 5 leg event from the 02’ low to the...
HO1! vs RB1! has become deviated too high compared to the historical norm. Look for the pullback to the 0.95 area. If you don't know how to do pairs trading, especially with commodities, don't do it.
Ever dreamt of being an oil refiner? Fret not. You can operate a virtual refinery using a combination of energy derivatives that replicates oil refiner returns.
Crude oil is the world’s most traded commodity. Oil consumption fuels the global economy. Crude is refined into gasoline and distillates.
Refining is the process of cracking crude into its usable...
With price and “commodity premiums” that we track showing signs of a structural shift, we think these represents potential tradeable set-up in the mid to long term as supply and demand finds some way to normalization after the pandemic & war shocks over the past 2 years. Hence, we think commodities will continue to be where the actions at.
With winter just about...
The top chart shows the difference in Retail Diesel prices less Heating Oil Futures. The 60 mo moving average is moving higher currently at 1.25 vs the current spread at 1.88. From 2015 to 2020 the MA for the spread was about 1.00. The accelerated rate of change is very noticeable in recent years. Will the expansion of Renewable Diesel help or hurt this spread?
Headlines
• Heating Oil Bounces Off 1.1000 Level Before Retracing Lower
• Gasoline Surges Above 0.60 Level Posting +12% Gain in Asia
• Petrobras to Cut Production & Reduce Capital Expenditures in a Bid to Off-Set Virus Impacts
• US Futures Retreat in Asia Breaking Weeks Uptrend
Headlines
• Crude Recovers 9% in Asia + RBA Cuts Interest Rates to 0.25%
• ECB Plans to Purchase 750 Billion Euro Worth of Bonds to Calm Virus Scare
• China Reports Zero Domestic Cases for First Time
Heating Oil is now approaching the 1D MA50 (light blue line) on a non-stop pull back since the peak of the Saudi attack. The 1D chart is neutral (RSI = 47.087, MACD = 0.011, Highs/Lows = -0.0354) signalling that we are approaching the most optimal buy level. We therefore turn bullish on Heating Oil with our Target Zone: 2.1000 - 2.1370. Note that even though 1D is...
Pattern: Channel Up on 1W.
Signal: Bullish after a similar sequence has been spotted both on the candle and RSI action.
Target: 2.1400 (1D Resistance).
Heating Oil has been trading on a very steady 4H Channel Up (RSI = 62.494, MACD = 0.014, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) and is currently on its Higher Low. Our long TP is 2.1000, as long as the Channel is holding. The previous bullish run of February 11 - 19, shows that around +8%, the price breaks the uptrend and pulls back on a lengthy descending channel. If the current...
Heating Oil has just made a Higher Low (RSI = 52.430, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) at 2.1600 on the 1W Channel Up that has been dictating its direction since January. Technically this is an ideal long term long entry towards the 2.4466 High.
However on the monthly chart and the 1M Channel Up (RSI = 60.743, MACD = 0.148, Highs/Lows = 0.0482) that started on January 2016,...
Heating Oil is trading within a very long term 1W Channel Up (RSI = 60.650, MACD = 0.049, Highs/Lows = 0.0425), highly volatile, but after having made a Lower High, seen on a strong 1D Channel Up. We are long aiming first at 2.3061 and 2.3404 in extension.
Heating Oil is trading within a long term 1D Channel Down and is coming off the most recent Lower High (RSI = 45.169, MACD = -0.007, Highs/Lows = -0.0171, B/BP = -0.0334). The downside potential is significant but we will only go short if the August 02 low (2.0863) breaks. TP = 2.0421.
Short RBZ2016 long HOZ2016. Last year the price of RBOB rise relative to the price of HO. Refineries switched to produce more RBOB compared to HO we are now seeing weakness in RBOB compared to HO due to over supply. Looking for $-0.3
As described by traders in industry trade is the widow maker because of the volatility within it.
