Long
Long
Long 
Guacamole | $GUAC | Falling Wedge, Base Building, AltseasonGUAC has been trading inside a long-term falling wedge, a structure that often precedes a trend reversal. Price is now near the lower part of this range, where the market typically starts transitioning from distribution to base building.
If a broader altseason develops, this type of structure can resolve with strong upside momentum. The projected path on the chart illustrates one possible trajectory based on a classic wedge resolution, not a prediction.
What makes $GUAC stand out among smaller caps on Solana is that it already has revenue-generating DeFi products. Despite this, the market is still clearly in a risk-off, low-retail participation phase.
For longer-term investors, this looks more like a patience phase: let the structure mature, wait for the wedge to resolve, and wait for retail liquidity to return to the market. 
Long
Short
Altseason Indicator: Liquidity and Cycle CorrelationAltseason Indicator: Liquidity and Cycle Correlation
I’d like to share some observations reflecting the dynamics of the altseason.
This setup may perform differently on certain assets, but during testing on Solana (SOL) it showed quite interesting results — the project has been around long enough to clearly display cyclical behavior.
The formula is based on the relationship between global money supply (M2) and crypto market capitalization excluding stablecoins, BTC and ETH :(Total3 – USDT – USDC – DAI), combined with market risk sensitivity via the VIX index.
!Observation!
Periods of altcoin accumulation tend to coincide with moments when the “money” (liquidity) metric moves sideways — between the orange dashed and solid yellow lines (shown as ellipses on the chart).
On the coin’s chart, it’s clearly visible when liquidity starts flowing back into the asset — the colored circles mark the points where price bounced off the lower liquidity boundary.
When comparing the current cycle to 2020–2021, an interesting parallel appears:
The absolute market bottom occurred on March 10, 2020.
After 32 weeks, a steady recovery began.
After another 59 weeks, the cycle peak was reached.
What followed was a drop in confidence and a final “overinflation” toward the top of the previous cycle.
In the current cycle, we seem to be in a similar phase:
about 32 weeks after the recent bottom, a move toward new highs may be forming — just like in 2020. 
Long
Altcoins Near Key Support, Possible -20% Drop before reversal ?Sharing my analysis on the altcoin market cap (excluding BTC, ETH, and stablecoins) compared to BTC over the past 10 years
I have marked important zones (yellow circles) where altcoins have historically bounced after strong corrections.
Current Outlook:
- I expect a possible -20% more downside, bringing it near 0.22, which aligns with a key historical support zone.
- This level has acted as a strong base multiple times, in 2018, 2020 and 2021
What I’m Watching:
- If price reaches that zone and holds, it could signal the start of the next altseason.
- Past patterns show similar moves before big reversals.
- However confirmation through volume and market sentiment is important before making any move
Final Note:
Not financial advice, just sharing what I see on the chart. If the ratio hits 0.22 and shows strength, it could be a key level to watch. Thanks BTC Dominance – Are We Near the true Altseason?BTC Dominance – Are We Near the Altseason?
BTC dominance has been rising recently, and many believe the real altseason will begin once BTC.D reaches 71%, just like in the previous cycle.
However, it might happen sooner than expected.
On the 1W timeframe, several signs are flashing:
RSI is showing a bearish divergence that’s about to play out.
Since January 2023, the MACD has been in overbought territory.
Each time RSI peaked above 70%, we saw a rejection of 8–10%. It's currently at 68% and nearing that level again.
On December 2nd, 2024, the structure was broken, but it has since re-entered its rising channel.
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On the Daily chart:
BTC.D is approaching its cycle peak around 65%, which should act as a resistance and potential reversal point.
Since the structure was already broken once, another downside break is highly probable.
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On the Monthly chart, it’s pretty clear we’re nearing the end of the BTC dominance cycle, and a rotation of capital is likely to follow soon.
Now, there are 2 possible scenarios:
Altseason starts at 65% in this cycle.
Altseason starts again at 71%, mirroring the previous cycle.
When you look at the Monthly chart, it’s easy to see that this cycle is different. With an overbought RSI, and a potential break of structure, a long-awaited MACD correction could be the trigger for the real altseason.
🚨 DYOR (Do Your Own Research) 🚨 Short 
