APPLE 6-year Channel Up could correct to $265 at least.Apple Inc. (AAPL) hit two weeks ago the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of its 6-year Channel Up. The 0.236 - 0 Fib Zone in particular, has delivered a number of strong corrections towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) within this timeframe.
This time however, given that the 1W RSI is printing the same Lower Highs pattern that formed a market Top on three previous sequences (early 2025, December 2023 and August 2022), a correction towards the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) at least, could be more probable. That was seen following the February 24 2025, December 11 2023 and August 15 2022 peaks. Those have been Highs following rallies coming off other market Highs.
The current Higher High seems to be no different structurally, coming off a main January - March (2026) 1W MA50 pull-back, similar to both August 05 2024 and October 23 2023 Lows. As mentioned, the key characteristic here is that all the corrections that followed those three peaks, touched at least the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), with the previous one (April 07 2025) even hitting the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
As a result, there is a high technical probability to see Apple correcting back to its 1W MA100 and touch $265 at least by the end of the year, before it becomes a medium-term buy again. If a stronger correction like 2022 and 2025 takes place (i.e. the 0.618 Channel Fib breaks), it could even test the 1W MA200 around $245. The 1W MACD Bearish Cross that just got formed this week, further strengthens the Sell Signal.
Note also that a 1W MA200 $245 contact would almost be a -32.22% decline from the July All Time High (ATH) exactly like the January 03 2023 bottom (notice that the April 07 2025 bottom was a similar -34.93% correction). At the same time, this wouldn't just test the 0.786 Channel Fib but also the 0.5 horizontal Fibonacci retracement level, which got hit both on the 2025 and 2022 pull-backs.
But no matter the price, if the 1W MACD makes a Bullish Cross below 0.0 or the 1W RSI hits its 4-year Buy Zone at any given moment, Apple will be a confirmed medium-term buy opportunity again regardless of the price at the time.
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Apples Don't Fall Far From the Tree, But WHY Did This One Fall??Good afternoon, Traders.
There's an old saying that "the apple doesn't fall far from the tree." Well...this week, the Apple definitely fell.
Actually...it didn't just fall. It dropped more than 10% after earnings. Now, if you were holding that move, that's a whole lot of iPhones disappearing from your portfolio in a single day!
So what happened? Did Wall Street suddenly decide Apple isn't a great company anymore? Of course not. Apple didn't fall because Tim Cook forgot how to make iPhones overnight.
It fell because price had wandered so far away from institutional demand that the market needed to come back and clean up the mess. It's like, while everybody wanted to talk about earnings, the chart was over in the corner whispering, "I hope you all are finished! Because I'm still headed to that Weekly Demand Zone."
This is another clear case of where the structure had already told us this pullback was coming. And if you had eyes to see what the structure was saying, you could have seen it coming too! And before you start to say, "oh, yeah...it's easy to say that after it already fell", just look at ANY of our posts here, @AkeelahTraders, and specific thoughts on Apple on Earnings Day, and you can see that there is a systematic way of reading the markets that we highlight, teach and trade consistently.
Most traders fail to recognize that markets don't just keep climbing forever. Healthy bull markets need healthy pullbacks. If a market keeps running higher without ever coming back to absorb liquidity, it eventually becomes unstable. Think about somebody running a marathon. If they sprint the first 20 miles without ever slowing down, you already know how that story is going to end.
Markets work the same way. Eventually they have to pull back, catch their breath, absorb liquidity, and decide whether there's enough institutional buying left to continue.
That's exactly what Apple had been doing.
If you look at the Weekly chart, Apple had pushed up to $342...nearly 15% extended above the Weekly Demand Zone between $275 and $302. From a market structure standpoint, that imbalance had been sitting there for weeks. Long before Thursday's earnings report, I would have told you that this market needed to come back and deal with that liquidity if the larger bullish trend was going to remain healthy.
So while everyone else was debating earnings estimates, AI announcements, analyst upgrades, and whether Apple would "beat expectations," I was looking at something much simpler.
I wasn't asking whether Apple was going to beat earnings. I was asking a much simpler question... 'Where is my Institutional Demand and how far has price wandered away it?' That's the question that mattered.
The earnings selloff didn't create some brand-new bearish trend. It simply became the catalyst that delivered the pullback the Weekly structure had already been asking for. BUT...something else interesting happened in the process. As price fell, it also created a Daily Break of Structure by closing below the Daily Demand Zone around $323-$329. That's important because the Weekly chart tells me where we're likely going. The Daily chart tells me how we're likely to get there
From here, I would normally expect to see price either:
1. Continue working deeper into the Weekly Demand Zone with one or more Daily closes. Once there, I'd expect price to spend some time consolidating. That's where I'll be looking to see whether real institutional buyers begin stepping in.
2. Attempt a retest of that broken Daily Demand Zone back up at ~$323. If sellers reject that retest, then this current pullback can continue working deeper into the Weekly Demand Zone between $275 and $302, which has been my primary target all along.
Now, let's keep this in perspective. The Weekly structure is still bullish and we have NOT had a Weekly Break of Structure. If buyers fail to defend this Weekly Demand Zone and we eventually get a true Weekly Break of Structure DOWN, then the conversation changes completely. At that point, my attention immediately shifts to the Weekly and Daily Demand Source around $245-$250, because that becomes the next major institutional objective.
Until then...
I'm simply watching the market do exactly what healthy markets have always done. I'd rather ignore the news and hype and spend my time reading the plan the market already wrote. I'll let you decide for yourself which one you will do.
Trade what you SEE...
Not what you THINK.
So, how do you like them apples??? I'd love to hear your thoughts. Short 
Apple's Record Quarter Isn't Enough to Calm Wall Street Apple delivered another strong quarter, but investors were focused on what comes next..
Revenue for Q3 rose 16% year over year to $109.4 billion, beating expectations by about $500 million. Earnings per share came in at $2.02, topping estimates by $0.13. While tariff refunds added $0.11 per share, Apple's core business still outperformed forecasts. Even so, the stock fell roughly 7% after the earnings report
The company set June quarter records across several key businesses. iPhone revenue climbed 22% to $54.3 billion, Mac sales surged 29% to $10.4 billion, and revenue from China rebounded 22% to $18.8 billion. Services continued to grow, though at a slower pace, rising 12% to $30.7 billion
🍎Tim Cooked?
This was Tim Cook's final earnings call before John Ternus takes over as CEO in September. Cook leaves with demand running higher than Apple can currently supply
He said stronger than expected sales of iPhones and Macs have stretched the company's ability to secure enough advanced chips. The shortage hit Macs this quarter and is expected to affect iPhones, Macs, and iPads in the September quarter.. Apple still expects revenue to grow between 9% and 11% next quarter, with iPhone sales increasing in the mid-teens, but that guidance fell short of Wall Street's expectations
Another challenge is rising memory costs. Cook described the current market as a "hundred year flood," pointing to sharp price increases that have already led Apple to raise prices on some Mac and iPad models. Without the benefit of tariff refunds, gross margins slipped from the previous quarter, and management expects another decline as lower cost inventory is used up
Apple is also spending aggressively on artificial intelligence. Research and development expenses increased 32% year over year to $11.7 billion, reflecting the company's push to strengthen its AI capabilities. Cook also hinted that advanced Siri features could eventually encourage more customers to upgrade to higher tier iCloud+ subscriptions, giving investors an early look at how Apple may generate revenue from its AI strategy
John Ternus steps into the role with one of Apple's strongest product lineups in years, but he also inherits a business facing tighter chip supplies and rising component costs. The next iPhone launch will be an important test of whether Apple can balance strong demand, protect its margins, and prove its AI strategy can compete with the rest of the industry.
Short 
APPLE 4-year Channel Up topped. Correction can target $255.Apple Inc. (AAPL) hit today the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of its 4-year Channel Up where it last got rejected in early June and corrected towards its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
The 1W RSI is printing the same Lower Highs pattern that formed a market Top on three previous sequences. That was seen on the February 24 2025, December 11 2023 and August 15 2022 peaks. Those have been Highs following rallies coming off other market Highs.
The current Higher High seems to be no different structurally, coming off a main January - March (2026) 1W MA50 pull-back, similar to both August 05 2024 and October 23 2023 Lows. The key characteristic here is that all the corrections that followed those three peaks, touched at least the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), with the previous one (April 07 2025) even hitting the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
As a result, there is a high technical probability to see Apple correcting back to its 1W MA100 and touch $255 at least, before it becomes a medium-term buy again. If a stronger correction like 2022 and 2025 takes place (i.e. the 0.618 Channel Fib breaks), it could even test the 1W MA200 at $230.
But no matter the price, if the 1W MACD makes a Bullish Cross below 0.0 or the 1W RSI hits its 4-year Buy Zone at any given moment, Apple will be a confirmed medium-term buy opportunity again regardless of the price at the time.
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APPLE 4-year Channel Up rejection eyes the 1W MA100 at $250.Apple Inc. (AAPL) got rejected last week at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of its 4-year Channel Up and this week is correcting rather aggressively.
The 1W MACD is printing the same pattern that previous sequences (3) formed a market Top. That was seen on the December 23 2024, December 11 2023 and August 15 2022 peaks. Those have been Highs following rallies coming off other market Highs.
The current Higher High seems to be no different structurally, coming off a ceasefire-led rebound almost on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), similar to both August 05 2024 and October 23 2023 Lows. The key characteristic here is that all the corrections that followed those three peaks, touched at least the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), with the previous one (April 07 2025) even hitting the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
As a result, there is a high technical probability to see Apple correcting back to its 1W MA100 and touch $250 at least, before it becomes a medium-term buy again. If a stronger correction like 2022 and 2025 takes place (i.e. the 0.618 Channel Fib breaks), it could even test the 1W MA200 at $220. But no matter the price, if the 1W MACD makes a Bullish Cross below 0.0 at any given moment, Apple will be a confirmed medium-term buy opportunity again.
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APPLE Correction to $245 possible.A year ago (April 09 2025, see chart below), we gave a strong long-term Buy Signal on Apple Inc. (AAPL), based on an 18-year cyclical pattern, as it had hit the 1M MA50:
That proved to be the most optimal buy opportunity and our long-term $390 Target still stands. However on the more medium-term, we still see conditions arising that call for a correction to at least the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) as per similar price patterns within Apple's 4-year Channel Up.
As you can see, the price isn't only very close to the top of this Channel Up but is printing a 1W MACD pattern that previous sequences (3) formed a Top. That was seen on the December 23 2024, December 11 2023 and August 15 2022 peaks. Those have been Highs the succeeded rallies coming off another market High.
The current Higher High seems to be no different structurally, coming off a ceasefire-led rebound almost on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), similar to both August 05 2024 and October 23 2023 Lows. As mentioned, all the corrections that followed those three peaks, touched at least the 1W MA100, with the previous one (April 07 2025) even hitting the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
As a result, it is probable to see Apple correcting back to its 1W MA100 and $245 at least, before it becomes a medium-term buy again. If a stronger correction like 2022 and 2025 takes place, it could even test the 1W MA200 at $220. But no matter the price, if the 1W MACD makes a Bullish Cross below 0.0 at any given moment, Apple will be a confirmed medium-term buy opportunity again.
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APPLE on a 1D MA50 test. Massive sell-off ahead?Last time we looked at Apple (AAPL) was 1 month ago (March 03, see chart below), giving a very timely Sell Signal following the 1D MA50/100 Bearish Cross:
The price responded instantly with a drop but over the past week or so we are seeing a short-term rebound. This rebound took place just above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and is testing now the 1D MA50 (red trend-line).
As we can see in the past 4 years and the two major corrections of the long-term Channel Up, the market made the first Lower High of the correction around March (2025 and 2022), before getting rejected and starting an aggressive Bearish Leg below the 1W MA50.
Both of those patterns bottomed after breaking below the Channel's 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. On top of that, a 1W MACD Bullish Cross below the 0.0 level, has been the most effective Buy Signal within this 4-year time-frame.
Additionally, since the 2025 correction bottomed after it broke below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), we expect it to happen once more. Our long-term Target remains $205.00, unless the 1W MACD makes a Bullish Cross below 0.0 earlier.
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APPLE formed the worst Bearish Cross that can crash it to $205APPLE (AAPL) has completed a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) - 1D MA100 (green trend-line) Bearish Cross, which is a strong Sell Signal historically that is formed on market tops.
Having already topped on its 4-year Channel Up last December, the similar Bearish Crosses that followed the two Channel Up tops before, both crashed below their respective 2.0 Fibonacci extensions, with the latter in 2025 even breaching the 1M MA50 (red trend-line).
Given that the new 2.0 Fib ext is at $205.00, if the Bear Cycle is materialized again, the price will also make a new contact with the 1M MA50 by then, making it a strong candidate for a bearish Target indeed.
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APPLE The 2026 correction will be a massive buy opportunity.Apple (AAPL) has been trading within a Channel Up since the start of the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis. With a massive recovery/ rally in the following years and an obvious deceleration/ maturity since the 2022 Inflation Crisis, this pattern has a very distinct structure that long-term investors can take advantage of.
As you can see, the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) is the market's multi-year Support. Since the March 2009 break-out, every contact (and near approach) with that trend-line (5 so far) has been the ultimate long-term buy entry.
That happens when the Channel Up tops (Higher High) and Bearish Legs (Cycles) are initiated that lead to those 1M MA50 bottoms. What confirms those Bear Cycles is a break (and monthly closing) below the 1M MA20 (black trend-line). The market came close to testing this last month.
Based on the more recent 4-year Channel Up, Apple can make contact with its 1M MA50 again around $210. The ultimate Buy Signal will be given by the 1M RSI, when it hits its 17-year Buy Zone. It has done so during every Bear Cycle bottom.
As far as Apple's next potential High, we expect that to be around $320, which represents an almost +60% rise from the 1M MA50, a standard Bullish Leg within the 4-year Channel Up.
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APPLE Massively oversold RSI. Short-term buy??Almost 2 months ago (December 05 2025, see chart below), we gave a massive long-term Sell Signal on APPLE (AAPL) as it hit the top of its 4-year Channel Up and the 1.236 Fibonacci extension:
The price immediately dropped and we are now on a strong weekly selling streak that is approaching the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which is generally the first technical Support during corrections.
However, the 1D RSI turned massively oversold as it hit 20.00 and this is technically the first Buy Signal but only on a short-term basis. In fact, every correction within this Channel Up pattern, always rebounded around the same point we are at today, to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and then resumed the long-term downtrend to test the 1W MA50. This 1D MA50 test may take place at $265.
Whether that's a traditional Bear Cycle (like in 2022) or a shorter correction, the deciding factor will be the 1W MA50 test. We expect that to be at $236, which is also where the 0.382 Fib is (tested previously on the October 26 2023 low). A break below it, will technically open the way for further downside towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
In that case, we will maintain a long-term target/ Buy Zone within $210 - $200, whose bottom will still be marginally less than the -32.00% of 2022 or the -35.00% of early 2025.
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APPLE Just formed its Cycle Top. Best sell opportunity is here.Almost 3 months ago (September 19, see chart below), we gave a buy signal on Apple Inc. (AAPL), which recently hit our final $290 Target:
This week we go back to the long-term 1W time-frame as the Bullish Leg (green) since the April 07 bottom just hit the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of its 4-year Channel Up.
The 2023 Bullish Leg also peaked on its 1.236 Fibonacci extension and eventually corrected back to its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), hitting its 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at the same time. The 2022 and early 2025 Bearish Legs even broke below the 1W MA50 and bottomed after a minimum -32.05% decline. The April 2025 bottom even hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
All of those Channel Up (Cycle) Tops have taken place while the 1W RSI broke above the overbought level (70.00). This has already taken place since last week and we also se the 1W MACD to start reversing, which is something that has also happened every time after a Top.
Based on all the above evidence (1.236 Fib hit, Channel Up top hit, 1W RSI overbought, 1W MACD reversing), we expect Apple to start a long-term correction (Bear Cycle), technically the new Bearish Leg of the 4-year Channel Up and initially make contact with the 1W MA50 and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $236.00. If the price closes a 1W candle below the 1W MA50, then we expect a second Target to be fulfilled at the bottom of the Channel Up at $200, below the 1W MA200 but still almost -32.00% from the top.
The most efficient long-term buy signal is perhaps given by the 1W RSI again, when it hits the 33.20 Support. Use that to time your buy entry accordingly.
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APPLE First correction signals in 7 months start to emerge.Almost 1.5 month ago (September 19, see chart below), we gave a buy signal on Apple Inc. (AAPL), which recently hit our $273 Target:
This time we go back to our long-term perspective and view Apple on the 1W time-frame, as the Bullish Leg (green) since the April 07 bottom, is approaching the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 4-year Channel Up.
The previous Bullish Leg peaked just below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, so we can't rule out one final push to round $285 but on the long-term, a technical pull-back is favored.
The 2023 Bullish Leg eventually corrected on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), hitting its 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at the same time. Even the smaller April - July 2024 Leg pulled-back to he 0.5 Fib.
All of those Channel Up tops have been also met with a 1W RSI break above the 70.00 oversold level, which is something that hasn't taken place yet. Similarly the 1W MACD hasn't started to reverse on the levels of most of previous tops.
In any case, we expect to see Apple hitting $236 at least on the long-term, which is its 0.382 Fib and marginally below the 1W MA50.
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APPLE Down -4% premarket on Trump's 25% Tariff. Buy opportunity?Apple Inc. (AAPL) is down -4% on pre-market trading following a warning by U.S. President Donald Trump that the company would have to pay a 25% tariff if phones sold in the U.S. were not made within its borders.
Along with a proposed 50% Tariff on goods from the European Union starting on June 01, these news have inflicted fear again in the markets following 6 weeks of a relief rebound on trade deal talks.
So are these announcements a dip buy opportunity for Apple or round 2 of correction?
Based on the stock's long-term pattern, which is a Channel Up, the recent rebound on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) is technically the start of its 2nd Bullish Leg. With the Bearish Legs having similar declines (-35% and -32% respectively), we can expect the Bullish Legs to have a proportional rise as well.
On top of that, the 1W RSI rebounded on its multi-year Support, while the 1W MACD is about to form a Bullish Cross.
As a result, since the 2023 Bullish Leg that was complete on July 17 2023 almost touched the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, we expect the price to disregard the news and continue rising up to the new 1.236 Fib and target $285.00.
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