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Arabicanalysis

Technical analysis April 13: Arabica broke out close to the 301 The market is in a strong growth phase after establishing a solid bottom and breaking the previous downward structure. The price range of 301.00 is currently a key psychological threshold. Trading tends to prioritize holding Buy positions and trigger chasing when the price completely escapes the current resistance zone. 1. Review previous session recommendations The scenario of Buying at the adjustment period of 288.00 - 290.00 in the April 9 session brought optimal results when the price rebounded strongly right after the testing period. In the April 10 session, the price decisively broke through 297.00 and closed at 300.10, closely following the main growth scenario. Existing Buy positions are in a state of great profit; The Breakout Buy scenario at 301.00 is waiting to be activated as soon as the next session opens. 2. Overview of trends & price structure Arabica has officially ended the medium-term price decline phase and switched to the growth phase with expansion acceleration. The current market structure is completely controlled by the Bulls after forming a double bottom reversal pattern and breaking out of the long-term downtrend line. The fact that prices continuously set higher closing levels shows that cash flow is focusing strongly on this commodity due to supply concerns. The chart's logic reflects the shift from the accumulation phase to the sustainable price increase phase, where short-term corrections are quickly eliminated by active demand, creating a premise for the price to soon approach the target resistance area of 325.00. 2. Technical prices Resistance: 301.25 – 325.00 – 361.15 Support: 291.80 – 285.00 3. Detailed technical analysis The candle on April 10 was a long bullish candle, closing close to the session high at 300.10. Data correlation shows: Price increased + Green volume increased (22.92K) + OI decreased (38.44K) → Short Covering. This breakthrough is mainly due to the fact that the Sellers were forced to close a series of stop-loss positions when the price surpassed the above blocking thresholds, creating an extremely strong resonant thrust. The VPA signal confirms that the upward momentum is highly reliable when the efforts of the Buyers result in a decisive breakthrough in price. Hedge funds are aggressively liquidating the remaining Short positions and starting to shift to an overwhelming Buy position. Market sentiment turned to excitement as logistics risks in Brazil show no signs of cooling down. Traders are stepping up defensive buying positions to protect capital prices, causing supply pressure on the electricity board to be completely absorbed as soon as prices show signs of a slight dip. The top-bottom sequence is forming a steep ascending structure. According to the arrow diagram on the chart, the price has completed the regression wave and is in an upward wave pushing towards the 325.00 mark. The current price position is just below the psychological resistance of 301.00; Exceeding this mark will confirm the continuation of the medium-term uptrend wave. This structure will only be disabled if the price turns down sharply and closes decisively below 285.00. 4. Next session's trading scenario Action: Continue to hold and open more Buy positions (TP: 325.00 SL: 291.00); Background: Confirmation of continued upward momentum from strong Short Covering effect. Scenario 2 (25%): Price faces profit-taking pressure at 301.25 and there is a technical correction to 294.00. Action: Wait to buy (Buy Limit) at area 293.00 – 295.00 (Tp: 301.00; SL: 284.00); Basis: Retesting demand at the short-term support zone before continuing the upward wave. 5. Recommendations by subject Manufacturer/importer (Buyer): Make a drastic Long Hedge as soon as the price exceeds 301.25. This is the key price area to protect profit margins before the market enters the acceleration phase to 325.00. Trade/export (Sellers): Absolutely do not establish short positions to block the trend. Patiently wait for the price to approach the target resistance of 325.00 and for clear reversal signals to appear before considering re-establishing short Hedge positions.
ICEUS:KCK2026Long
by Hung-JK
Technical analysis April 13: Robusta established the Bear Trap aThe market recorded an extremely strong withdrawal reaction (Hammer) at the support area of ​​3,273, neutralizing the Sellers' attempt to break out. Short-term trend turns positive; Trading tends to prioritize opening a Buy position when the price regains the 3,325 mark towards the target of 3,480. 1. Review previous session recommendations Short position at 3,310 towards 3,137 has reached the short-term profit target when the price hits the lowest at 3,249. However, the price action reversed quickly at the end of the session, causing the deep decline scenario to be interrupted. Currently, all Short orders have been settled at breakeven point or slight profit. The explosion of Arabica (+2.18%) in the past session has completely changed the context, turning the decline of Robusta into a decline before increasing again. 2. Overview of trends & price structure Robusta is showing signs of forming a short-term bottom after failing to test the lower boundary of the medium-term falling price channel. Although the following peak structure is lower than the previous peak is still present on the daily chart, the appearance of a withdrawal candle at the 3,249 area right after Arabica broke out shows that the inter-market divergence is gradually narrowing. The current market phase is shifting from a reduction push to a re-accumulation phase with the foundation being a bearish price trap around the 3,325 threshold. The logic of the chart reflects the exhaustion of forced supply; When the Sellers are no longer able to push the price deeper despite negative technical signals, the market will often react with a strong recovery to seek higher liquidity at the resistance levels above. 2. Technical prices Resistance: 3330 – 3480 – 3800 Support: 3273 – 3249 – 3137 3. Detailed technical analysis The candle on April 10 closed as a Hammer with a long lower shadow, confirming extremely strong bottom-catching demand at 3,249. Data correlation: Price withdrew + Low volume (5.02K) + OI decreased (22.16K) → Market lost interest. In this context, the decrease in OI accompanied by the withdrawal candle confirms that the Sellers have completed their profit-taking behavior (Short Covering) and are no longer interested in pushing the price down. VPA signal confirms supply depletion at low price range; The current market is very "light" and can easily explode if there is a small demand force at the beginning of the next session. Hedge funds are in a state of skepticism after being caught off guard by the previous trading session. Market sentiment changed from pessimism to positive caution as the pressure of heavy rain in Brazil began to permeate. Traders have stopped defensive selling activities at the 3,250 zone and are showing signs of starting to buy (Long Hedge) to counterbalance logistics risks, creating a solid price cushion that leaves the Sellers with no chance of winning in the short term. The series of gradually lower lows was interrupted by a pullback at 3,249. Structural analysis shows that the bearish wave (Z) is likely to be truncated as it cannot reach the target of 3,137. Instead, the price is creating a recovery wave toward the upper border of the price channel at 3,480. The current price position is right next to the rotation mark of 3,325; A close above this mark will confirm the complete Fakeout pattern. The recovery structure will only be disabled if the price turns around and closes decisively below 3,240. 4. Next session's trading scenario Scenario 1 (65%): Price breaks out past the previous session's high of 3330 and closes stably above this range. Action: Open a Buy position (TP: 3480. SL: 3240); Background: Confirmation of Bear Trap and Resonant Recovery Rhythm from Arabica Floor. Scenario 2 (35%): Price faces pressure at 3330 and returns to accumulate in the 3273 – 3310 area. Action: Stand aside and wait for the Engulfing candlestick signal at support 3273; Basis: Buyers need more time to accumulate demand after the shakeout. 5. Recommendations by subject Manufacturers/exporters: Temporarily stop all selling at this low price. Patiently wait for the price to recover close to the resistance of 3,480 to establish Short Hedge positions with better profit margins.
ICEEUR:RCK2026Long
by Hung-JK
Analysis Techniques – Robusta Coffee Futures (Nov 2025)Analysis Techniques – Robusta Coffee Futures (Nov 2025) Date: October 23, 2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: ICEEU XRX25 1. Trend Overview and Price Structure November 2025 Robusta coffee futures surged +2.70% to USD 4,750/ton, marking a clear breakout from a descending triangle accumulation pattern that had persisted since September. This session confirms a technical breakout, lifting prices above the key 4,700 resistance zone and opening the path toward a medium-term upside target of 5,300–5,560 USD/ton. The short-term trend has shifted decisively from consolidation to bullish continuation, supported by a stable higher-lows structure established since August 2025. 2. Key Technical Price Levels Resistance: 4,986 – 5,300 – 5,561 Support: 4,303 – 4,050 – 3,696 3. Detailed Technical Analysis (1) Short-Term Trend: After consolidating between 4,300–4,500, Robusta broke above its descending trendline, confirming a bullish reversal. The measured move projection, based on the triangle’s height (~USD 930), suggests a potential advance toward 5,550 USD/ton, equivalent to a 20% price increase. (2) Trading Volume: Volume expanded sharply during the breakout sessions, signaling renewed participation from both speculative and commercial traders after a prolonged Q3 correction. (3) Wave Structure: According to Elliott Wave Theory, prices are progressing within wave (3) of a bullish cycle, targeting 5,300–5,560 USD, where a confluence exists between the April swing high and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension zone. A breakout above 5,560 would confirm further upside potential toward 5,800–6,000 USD in Q4 2025. (4) Confirmation Signals: Breakout above the descending trendline from June. Strong bullish candles closing above the entire short-term resistance range. Momentum and volume confirm active buying pressure (bullish momentum). 4. Strategic View – Bloomberg Intelligence According to VNC, Robusta’s sharp recovery in the second half of October is driven by a combination of three key factors: 1. Tight Supply from Vietnam and Indonesia: ICE Europe reported Robusta inventories falling to their lowest level since 2016. Vietnam’s September exports dropped over 20% year-on-year, as farmers delayed sales in anticipation of higher prices. 2. Steady Demand from Europe and the U.S.: European roasters have increased stockpiling ahead of the year-end consumption season. The strengthening euro against the dollar has improved purchasing power for European buyers. 3. Spillover from the Arabica Market: Arabica prices have rallied above 410 cents/lb, creating a positive contagion effect across the broader coffee complex. The Arabica/Robusta price ratio (A/R spread) has normalized around 1.35x, allowing further upside in Robusta without triggering substitution pressures. VNC notes that the 4,300–4,500 zone now serves as a solid price base, with 5,300–5,560 as an achievable target for November—provided the Brazilian real remains stable and speculative inflows continue. 5. Suggested Technical Strategies Primary Long Scenario (Trend-Following): Entry: 4,650 – 4,720 TP1: 5,300 TP2: 5,560 SL: 4,460 Probability: 75% Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:3 Alternative Short Scenario (Rejection at High Resistance): Entry: 5,550 – 5,600 TP: 4,950 SL: 5,720 Probability: 25% Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2 6. Corporate Hedging Strategies For Coffee Exporters: Increase forward sales coverage in the 4,750–5,000 zone as global prices have strongly recovered and the domestic basis has narrowed. Consider partial hedging for December–January delivery contracts to protect profit margins. For Importers (Roasters & FMCG Companies): Consider partial hedging on dips near 4,400–4,500, focusing on Q1 2026 deliveries, to secure supply amid continued market volatility. For Commercial Investors: Maintain medium-term long positions targeting 5,300–5,560. A confirmed break above 5,560 could justify expanding long exposure toward 5,800–6,000 USD.
ICEEUR:RC1!Long
by Hung-JK
Analysis techniques – Arabica Coffee Futures (Dec 2025)Analysis techniques – Arabica Coffee Futures (Dec 2025) Date: Oct 06, 2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: KCZ25 1. Trend Overview and Price Structure December Arabica coffee rose +2.28% to 388.35 cents/lb, breaking above the 384–385 consolidation zone and confirming a short-term recovery. The medium-term structure remains bullish from the 272.05 low, with a key support area around 350. Sustaining this zone may lead prices toward 420 cents/lb, the highest resistance since May 2025. 2. Key Technical Levels Resistance: 384.6 – 420 – 450 Support: 350 – 316.5 – 272 3. Detailed Technical Analysis (1) Short-term Trend: Momentum strengthened as prices reclaimed the 384–385 area. Holding above 380 reinforces the near-term uptrend. (2) Volume: Volume expansion during the latest rally reflects renewed speculative buying. (3) Wave Structure: Arabica appears to be in wave 3 of a medium-term recovery cycle, targeting 420 – 450. A confirmed breakout above 420 could extend the move into wave 5 toward 450. (4) Confirmation Signals: A daily close above 388–390 would confirm bullish continuation, while a drop below 350 would weaken the broader structure. 4. VNC View Short Term: Supported by low ICE certified stocks and a stronger BRL reducing farmer selling. Medium Term: Brazilian 2025/26 crop remains strong, but rising logistics costs and recovering consumption in the US/EU support price stability. Risk Factors: Currency volatility (BRL/USD) and prolonged La Niña weather conditions in South America may distort supply-demand balance. 5. Suggested Technical Strategies Preferred Long Setup: Entry: 384 – 388 TP: 420 – 450 SL: 350 Probability: 65% Counter-trend Short Setup: Entry: 418 – 420 TP: 370 – 350 SL: 425 Probability: 35% 6. Corporate Hedging Guidance Roasters / Importers: Lock in purchases around 380 – 390 to hedge against potential rally toward 420. Exporters: Delay sales once above 400 and use forward hedges to capture upside if the uptrend extends.
ICEUS:KCZ2025Long
by Hung-JK