NFLX and IBM both announce on Tuesday after market close, so look to put on something in the waning hours of Monday's session if you're going to do a volatility contraction play.
Pictured here is a NFLX (42/46) 25/10 iron condor,* with the short option strikes at the 25 delta; the longs at the 10 (as of Friday close). Metrics: $825 max profit; $1675...
Although VIX finished the week above the low volatility environment zone (<15) at 16.48, not much is enticing here from a premium selling standpoint at first glance. Earnings announcements are now down to a trickle, with the next quarter's announcements coming into range in the May cycle, militating in favor of putting on earnings-related volatility contraction...
My screeners aren't showing me a ton of things for either earnings-related volatility contraction plays and/or just Plain Jane premium selling, so I'm largely looking just to work what I have on, do any adjustments that are necessary, and wait for a higher volatility environment (VIX is at sub-15 here) to deploy capital back into premium selling.
Looking at the long-term trend, the Chinese A-shares are trading within a pretty well defined range since the mid 1990's. This includes two meteroic bubbles that have risen as quickly as they've crashed. Despite these bubbles forming, they haven't caused any massive damage to the Chinese economy such as what we saw when other large bubbles broke down (such as...
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ASHR (China CSI 300 index) has been steadily rising since 2016 low. MACD is now positive, price is above 10 month MA. Need it to take out Nov. 2016 interim high to confirm the trend change. IF that ever happens, I would expect a price spike.
ASHR quietly surpassed April high ($24.86 vs. $25.03) and I think it is ready to challenge the 40 week MA and the red resistance line ($26 level).
The bullish case can be confirmed once it is able to close above the red resistance (if that happens, $37 is possible).
the chart seems to suggest China A share ETF is on the verge of major trend change (bias toward going higher). Given the mess in Europe and valuation in the US market, emerging market in general is appealing. Stay tuned.
I don't usually read much from daily patterns. This one is just for fun. It is going to break the lower bound of the sliding channel any time soon. But before that, it can temporarily go up a little bit.