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AUDJPY Rally Weakens As Sellers Reclaim Short-Term ControlThis is one of those charts where the story has clearly shifted, but not everyone has caught up yet. The rally into the highs was clean and aggressive, but what matters now is what happened after. That sharp rejection and the structure that followed tell me momentum is no longer one-sided. We’re transitioning from trend continuation into a more fragile phase, and that’s where opportunities usually start to form. Current Bias: Neutral to Bearish (4H timeframe focus) Short-term structure is weakening after a strong bullish run. I’m not calling a full reversal yet, but the upside is no longer clean, and downside risk is building. Technical Posture & Price Action: Strong impulsive bullish leg → clear trend phase Followed by rejection near highs (~114.30 area) Sharp sell-off created a lower high structure intraday Price now hovering near a key reaction zone (~113.00) What stands out: That rejection candle wasn’t subtle Buyers failed to hold the highs Momentum stalled immediately after Now we’re seeing: 👉 Early signs of distribution or at least exhaustion The structure is no longer clean bullish continuation. It’s becoming reactive. Indicator & Volume Analysis: Momentum likely peaked during the rally Current price action suggests momentum divergence or slowdown No strong follow-through buying after the rejection Volume behavior (by structure): Expansion during rally Compression + rejection at highs 👉 That typically signals fading bullish pressure Key Fundamental Drivers: Right now, this pair is being pulled in two directions: AUD side: Sensitive to China growth concerns Commodity demand uncertainty JPY side: Structurally weak due to BOJ policy Still used as funding currency So: 👉 Weak vs weak dynamic = unstable direction Macro Context: Carry trade still exists, but conviction is softening China slowdown narrative is weighing on AUD BOJ remains accommodative, limiting strong JPY rallies This creates: 👉 A market that trends until it suddenly doesn’t And right now, we’re at that transition point. Primary Risk to the Trend: The bearish shift strengthens if: Price breaks and holds below 113.00 Risk sentiment weakens globally China-related data disappoints further Bullish continuation invalidates bearish bias if: Price reclaims and holds above 114.30 highs Most Critical Upcoming News/Event: China economic data (PMIs, growth indicators) RBA tone and forward guidance BOJ communication Global risk sentiment shifts Leader/Lagger Dynamics: AUDJPY is a sentiment-sensitive leader among risk pairs. It often moves alongside: NZDJPY CADJPY But compared to GBPJPY: 👉 It’s more sensitive to China and commodities Right now: It’s showing earlier weakness than some other JPY crosses That can be an early warning signal Key Levels: Support Levels: 113.00 111.30 Resistance Levels: 114.30 115.00 (psychological extension) Stop Loss (SL) & Invalidation Point: Above 114.40 Take Profit (TP) Targets: TP1: 113.00 TP2: 111.30 Summary: Bias and Watchpoints: I’m treating AUDJPY as neutral to bearish here, and that’s a shift from the prior clean bullish structure. The rejection at the highs wasn’t random, it marked a clear loss of momentum. Now price is sitting in a decision zone, and the next move matters more than the last one. If 113.00 breaks cleanly, I expect continuation lower toward 111.30. On the flip side, if buyers manage to reclaim 114.30, then this entire bearish read gets invalidated quickly. The bigger issue here is the conflicting fundamental backdrop. AUD is under pressure from China concerns, while JPY remains structurally weak. That combination doesn’t give you a strong directional edge, it gives you volatility and fakeouts. So the real edge isn’t prediction, it’s reaction. Watch how price behaves around 113.00. That level will decide whether this becomes a proper pullback… or something deeper.
Short
by ultreosforex
15
AUD/JPY Market Analysis 📊 AUD/JPY Market Analysis – Bearish Reversal from Strong High 🔻🔥 The chart clearly shows a complete market cycle — from bearish structure ➡️ accumulation ➡️ bullish expansion ➡️ now potential distribution. 🧠 Market Structure Insight Price initially formed a bearish trend with consistent lower highs & lower lows 📉 A strong base (Strong Low) triggered a reversal, leading to a clean bullish trend 📈 The market respected structure beautifully, breaking key resistance (BOS) and continuing upward 🚧 Current Situation Price has now reached a Strong High / Supply Zone 🟩 Clear rejection from resistance indicates sellers stepping in ❌ The bullish trendline is getting weak, and price is starting to lose momentum 🔄 Expected Move Short-term pullback is already in play Likely scenario: Minor retracement ⬆️ Then continuation to the downside ⬇️ 🎯 Target Zone Bearish move is expected toward the Demand Zone (~112.30 area) 📍 This zone previously acted as a strong base, so watch for reaction there ⚠️ Trade Idea Bias: Bearish below resistance 🔻 Entry: After pullback confirmation Invalidation: Strong breakout above supply zone 🧾 Conclusion 💡 The market respected structure perfectly, and now we’re seeing a classic distribution phase at highs. 📉 Momentum is shifting bearish — sellers are gaining control. Stay patient, wait for confirmation, and follow structure — not emotions. 🎯
Short
by MarketStrategysignals
AUD/JPY Price Outlook – Trade Setup📊 Technical Structure OANDA:AUDJPY AUD/JPY is trading in a clear bullish continuation structure, breaking above the 114.00 psychological level and forming higher highs and higher lows. Price has rebounded strongly from the 114.09–114.18 support zone, which aligns with Fibonacci retracement levels (0.382–0.618 area) and previous consolidation. The current move is pushing toward the 114.46–114.55 resistance zone, which also coincides with the 1.618 extension. Momentum remains constructive, though price is approaching resistance, suggesting a buy-on-dip rather than breakout chase approach. Short-term bias: Bullish above 114.09 🎯 Trade Setup (Buy on Dip) Entry Zone: 114.09 – 114.18 Stop Loss: 114.06 Take Profit 1: 114.45 Take Profit 2: 114.55 Extended Target: 114.82 (Fib 2.618) Risk–Reward Ratio: Approx. 1:2.46 📌 Invalidation: A break below 114.06 would invalidate the bullish structure and expose downside toward 113.60. 🌐 Macro Background Fundamentals support AUD/JPY upside, but with some caution: RBA remains hawkish, with markets pricing ~65% chance of another hike Strong Australian yield outlook supports AUD BoJ remains cautious, keeping policy relatively loose However, risk of JPY intervention and geopolitical uncertainty may cap upside Overall, macro bias: Bullish with volatility risk 🔑 Key Technical Levels Resistance Zone: 114.45 – 114.55 Extension Target: 114.82 Support Zone: 114.09 – 114.18 📌 Trade Summary AUD/JPY maintains strong bullish momentum above 114.06. Preferred strategy: Buy dips into support, targeting continuation toward 114.55 and potentially 114.80. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Financial markets involve significant risk; proper risk and position management are essential.
Long
by ATFX_Global
AUD/JPY Price Outlook – Trade Setup📊 Technical Structure FOREXCOM:AUDJPY On the 240-minute (240M) chart, AUD/JPY has staged a successful recovery, currently trading near 111.70 in the early European session. The price action remains constructive as it continues to hold above the Support Zone situated between 111.37 – 111.55. The technical outlook is supported by bullish RSI momentum and price action remaining above the rising 100-day EMA. While the immediate Resistance Zone is identified between 112.59 – 112.76, a decisive breakout above this level could pave the way for a move toward the 113.00 psychological handle. Short-term bias: Bullish while holding above 111.00. Key Resistance: 112.59 – 112.76. Key Support: 111.37 – 111.55. 🎯 Trade Setup (Trend Continuation Scenario) Entry Zone: 111.37 – 111.55 (Positioning on the current bullish recovery). Stop Loss: 111.29 (Placed below the recent structural support). Take Profit 1: 112.59 (Bottom of the primary resistance zone). Take Profit 2: 113.00 (Major psychological target). Risk–Reward Ratio: Approx. 1:3.97 📌 Invalidation: A sustained break and 240M candle close below 111.29 would invalidate the current bullish thesis, suggesting a shift in sentiment toward a deeper correction. 🌐 Macro Background The AUD/JPY cross is currently balancing regional geopolitical risks against strong economic data: China Economic Strength: The "China-proxy" Aussie finds significant support from stronger-than-expected Chinese data, including Retail Sales rising 2.8% YoY and Industrial Production climbing 6.3% YoY in the January-February period. Geopolitical Tensions: Markets remain highly sensitive to the US-Israel conflict with Iran. US President Donald Trump announced ongoing collaboration with Israel to secure the Strait of Hormuz after US forces targeted military sites on Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil hub. Safe-Haven Risk: Any further escalation or retaliation by Iran against regional oil facilities could trigger a sudden flight to safety, boosting the Japanese Yen (JPY) and pressuring the cross. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Resistance Zone: 112.59 – 112.76. Support Zone: 111.37 – 111.55. 📌 Trade Summary AUD/JPY is benefiting from robust Chinese economic activity, which is currently outweighing the safe-haven demand for the JPY. Technically, the pair is in a clear recovery phase from its recent support. Preferred strategy: Seek long entries near the 111.55 support floor, targeting the 112.59 resistance area while maintaining strict risk management below the 111.29 handle. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Financial markets involve significant risk; proper risk and position management are essential.
Long
by ATFX_Global
AUD/JPY Price Outlook – Trade Setup (Revised)📊 Technical Structure FOREXCOM:AUDJPY On the 60M chart, AUD/JPY is attempting a recovery after a sharp decline earlier in the week. The price action shows a clear rejection from the lower levels, with the pair now climbing back toward a critical Resistance Zone located between 111.1669 – 111.2953. The current structure highlights a descending trendline that has acted as a ceiling for recent price action. A firm Support Zone is established at 110.5900 – 110.7340. For a bullish reversal to be confirmed, the price must break and find acceptance above the trendline and the 111.29 resistance level. Short-term bias: Neutral/Bullish while holding above 110.61. Key Resistance: 111.16 – 111.29. Key Support: 110.61 – 110.73. 🎯 Trade Setup (Buying the Dip at Support) Entry Zone: 110.61 – 110.73 (Positioning near the primary horizontal support). Stop Loss: 110.59 (Placed strictly below the recent structural support). Take Profit 1: 111.16 (Bottom of the resistance zone). Take Profit 2: 111.29 (Top of the resistance zone/trendline target). Risk–Reward Ratio: Approx. 1:3.28 📌 Invalidation: A sustained break and hourly close below 110.59 would invalidate this setup, suggesting that the bearish trend has resumed and exposing the 110.00 level. 🌐 Macro Background BoJ Outlook: Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated a "prolonged hold" on interest rates due to global economic uncertainty from the Middle East war, which has weakened the JPY. Deflation & War: Japan's Finance Minister noted that the government is ready to combat the economic impact of the Iran conflict and mentioned that Japan has not yet fully exited deflation. RBA Support: Despite a narrower-than-expected trade surplus in January, hawkish rhetoric from the RBA continues to provide a structural floor for the Australian Dollar. 📌 Trade Summary The setup focuses on buying the support floor at 110.73, betting on the JPY's weakness following the BoJ's cautious stance. Preferred strategy: Seek long entries on minor pullbacks toward 110.73, targeting the 111.16 neighbourhood while keeping a tight stop below the 110.59 support. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Financial markets involve significant risk; proper risk and position management are essential.
Long
by ATFX_Global
AUD/JPY Price Outlook – Trade Setup 📊 Technical Structure OANDA:AUDJPY On the 15M chart, AUD/JPY is exhibiting a clear bearish rejection from the overhead Resistance Zone at 111.60 – 111.70. After failing to sustain higher levels, the price action has shifted into a corrective phase, characterized by a series of lower highs in the short term. The pair is currently approaching a critical horizontal Support Zone between 111.11 – 111.16. While the previous upward momentum has stalled, this support level represents the primary floor that bears must break to confirm a trend reversal. Short-term bias: Bearish while below 111.60. Key Objective: A retest of the 111.11 support floor. 🎯 Trade Setup (Sell-the-Rallies) Entry Zone: 111.60 – 111.65 (Targeting entries near the established resistance zone). Stop Loss: 111.70 (Placed above the recent swing high). Take Profit: 111.16 (Primary horizontal support). Risk–Reward Ratio: Approx. 1:4.5 📌 Invalidation:A decisive 15M candle close above 111.70 would invalidate this bearish outlook, suggesting that buyers have regained control for a move toward 112.00. 🌐 Macro Background RBA Stance: Governor Michele Bullock has signalled that a rate hike in March remains on the table if inflation expectations become unanchored. Markets are currently pricing in a 30% chance of a hike this month. Geopolitical Risk: Ongoing conflict in the Middle East, including the recent destruction of Iranian command posts by US forces, continues to drive safe-haven demand into the Japanese Yen (JPY). Conflict Escalation: The joint Israeli-US offensive has heightened fears of a prolonged regional war, which typically acts as a significant headwind for the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar (AUD). 🔑 Key Technical Levels Resistance Zone: 111.60 – 111.70. Support Zone: 111.11– 111.16. 📌 Trade Summary The setup has shifted from a trend-following channel to a range-fading strategy as the 111.65 resistance proves difficult to breach. Geopolitical tensions favour JPY strength, providing fundamental backing for a move lower. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Financial markets involve significant risk; proper risk and position management are essential.
Short
by ATFX_Global
AUDJPY at Exhaustion Highs Risk Barometer Turning at 111.47AUDJPY has pushed into a clean liquidity shelf at 111.47 and stalled almost on cue. After a strong impulsive leg higher, momentum is now compressing right beneath prior highs, and short-term structure is starting to roll over. This is the kind of zone where trends either accelerate or reverse sharply — and given the macro backdrop, I’m leaning toward a corrective downside phase rather than continuation. This pair is not just another cross. It’s one of the clearest real-time gauges of global risk appetite. When AUDJPY hesitates at highs, I pay attention. Current Bias: Bearish (Corrective Pullback Likely) Price has rejected from the 111.47 high and is now forming lower intraday highs beneath resistance. Momentum has shifted from expansion to compression. Unless we see a decisive break and hold above 111.50, the structure favors a retracement toward deeper support. The impulsive leg higher looks extended, and exhaustion signals are building. Key Fundamental Drivers 1. Japan Yield Normalization Japanese yields have been gradually rising, and normalization expectations continue to build. That reduces the attractiveness of carry trades like AUDJPY. 2. Fragile China Growth Outlook AUD remains highly exposed to China demand and global growth sentiment. PMIs remain uneven and lack strong acceleration. 3. Risk Sentiment Plateau Equities have stabilized rather than accelerated. Without a fresh risk-on catalyst, high-beta crosses like AUDJPY struggle to sustain upside momentum. Macro Context Interest Rate Expectations: The Fed remains cautious due to sticky inflation. Rate cuts are not aggressively priced. Meanwhile, Japan’s yield curve dynamics are shifting upward gradually. Economic Growth Trends: US growth remains resilient. China growth remains fragile. Australia’s outlook is tied to global commodity demand rather than domestic outperformance. Commodity Flows: Iron ore and industrial demand flows matter more for AUD than oil does. There is no strong commodity impulse currently driving aggressive AUD upside. Geopolitical Themes: Any geopolitical flare-up strengthens JPY via safe-haven demand. Risk markets are stable but not euphoric. Net macro tone: Moderately risk-sensitive, not strongly risk-on. Primary Risk to the Trend A renewed equity breakout could quickly invalidate the bearish view. If global indices push higher and volatility compresses further, AUDJPY could retest and break above 111.47. Additionally, a dovish shift from the Bank of Japan would weaken JPY and support continuation higher. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event US Core PCE Japan policy communication China PMI releases These will directly impact risk appetite and yield spreads. Leader/Lagger Dynamics AUDJPY is a leader in global risk sentiment among FX pairs. When it turns lower, equities often follow. When it breaks out, it confirms risk acceleration. It does not follow USD directly — it responds to global growth and volatility flows. If AUDJPY breaks down cleanly, NZDJPY and equity indices often echo the move. Key Levels Support Levels: 109.80 (near-term structure support) 108.90 (mid-structure demand) 107.90 (major support zone and projected target) Resistance Levels: 110.90 (minor intraday cap) 111.47 (major liquidity high) Stop Loss (SL): Above 111.70 (clean breakout and hold invalidates bearish structure) Take Profit (TP): Primary: 107.90 Extended: 106.80 if downside momentum accelerates Summary: Bias and Watchpoints Bias is bearish while price remains below the 111.47 high. The structure shows rejection at a clear liquidity zone, and the macro backdrop does not strongly support sustained risk expansion. Rising Japan yields and fragile China growth keep AUDJPY vulnerable to pullbacks. Stop above 111.70 protects against a breakout continuation. Primary target sits at 107.90, with potential extension lower if risk sentiment deteriorates. The key watchpoints are US inflation data and Japan policy signals. If this pair rolls over decisively, it likely leads broader risk markets lower.
Short
by ultreosforex
AUD/JPY Price Outlook – Trade Setup📊 Technical Structure OANDA:AUDJPY AUD/JPY remains in a short-term bullish structure after staging a strong impulsive rally from the lower range. Price is currently pulling back toward the 107.85–108.05 support zone, which aligns with the prior breakout area. The broader structure suggests continuation higher as long as the pair holds above support. The projected path indicates a potential dip for liquidity before buyers attempt another push toward the 108.65–108.85 resistance zone. 🎯 Trade Setup (Bullish Bias) Entry Zone: 108.05 – 107.85 Stop Loss: 107.80 Take Profit 1: 108.65 Take Profit 2: 108.85 Risk–Reward Ratio: Approx. 1 : 3.01 📌 Invalidation: A sustained break and close below 107.80 would invalidate the bullish setup and signal weakening upside momentum. 🌐 Macro Background AUD/JPY is supported by persistent weakness in the Japanese Yen amid fiscal uncertainty and political developments in Japan. Discussions around potential tax pauses and election-related spending have pressured the currency. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar remains relatively resilient, benefiting from stable risk sentiment. Although intervention concerns from Japanese authorities may slow the rally, the near-term macro environment still favours upside continuation. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Resistance Zone: 108.65 – 108.85 Support Zone: 107.85 – 108.05 Bullish Invalidation: Below 107.80 📌 Trade Summary AUD/JPY is undergoing a healthy pullback after a strong bullish impulse. As long as price holds above the support zone, the bias favours a buy-on-dips strategy, targeting a continuation toward the upper resistance band. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Financial markets involve significant risk; proper risk and position management are essential.
Long
by ATFX_Global
AUD/JPY Price Outlook – Trade Setup📊 Technical Structure OANDA:AUDJPY AUD/JPY pulled back after the recent rally and is now consolidating around the 105.70–105.93 support zone. This area overlaps with prior demand and a key technical base, where downside momentum has started to slow. From a structural perspective, the current move appears to be a corrective pullback within an ongoing bullish trend, rather than a trend reversal. As long as price holds above the support zone, the broader price action favours a continuation higher toward the upper resistance area. 🎯 Trade Setup (Bullish Bias) Entry Zone: 105.70 – 105.93 Stop Loss: 105.61 Take Profit 1: 106.62 Take Profit 2: 106.84 Risk–Reward Ratio: Approx. 1 : 2.36 📌 Invalidation A sustained break and close below 105.61 would invalidate the bullish setup and suggest a deeper corrective move. 🌐 Macro Background On the macro front, the Japanese Yen continues to face pressure despite repeated verbal warnings from Japanese officials regarding potential intervention. So far, these comments have failed to translate into concrete action, keeping the JPY structurally vulnerable. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar remains supported by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia maintains a relatively hawkish stance, especially compared with Japan’s still-accommodative policy environment. This ongoing policy divergence continues to underpin AUD/JPY, favouring buy-on-dips strategies rather than aggressive selling. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Resistance Zone: 106.68 – 106.84 Support Zone: 105.70 – 105.93 Bullish Invalidation: Below 105.61 📌 Trade Summary AUD/JPY is undergoing a healthy pullback within a broader bullish structure. As long as price holds above the 105.70 support zone, the technical bias favours a rebound toward the upper resistance band. The overall setup supports a buy-on-dips approach, rather than a bearish trend reversal. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Financial markets involve significant risk; proper risk and position management are essential.
Long
by ATFX_Global
AUD/JPY Price Outlook – Trade Setup📊 Technical Structure FOREXCOM:AUDJPY AUD/JPY is currently consolidating near recent highs after a strong impulsive rally. Price has pulled back into the 105.18–105.37 support zone, where buying interest has emerged and downside momentum has clearly slowed. The broader market structure remains bullish. As long as price holds above the support zone, AUD/JPY is likely to form a higher low and resume its upward move. The projected path suggests a brief consolidation or shallow retracement, followed by a continuation toward the 105.75–105.93 resistance zone, rather than a deeper corrective breakdown. 🎯 Trade Setup (Bullish Bias) Entry Zone: 105.15 – 105.37 Stop Loss: 105.15 Take Profit 1: 105.75 Take Profit 2: 105.93 Risk–Reward Ratio: Approx. 1 : 2.6 📌 Invalidation: A sustained break and close below 105.15 would invalidate the bullish setup and signal a deeper correction risk. 🌐 Macro Background The macro backdrop continues to favor AUD/JPY on a relative basis. Persistent uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s policy normalization keeps the Japanese Yen structurally weak, while expectations of a relatively hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia continue to support the Australian Dollar. In the near term, markets remain sensitive to global risk sentiment and upcoming U.S. macro data. However, as long as risk appetite does not deteriorate sharply, yield differentials and policy divergence should continue to underpin AUD/JPY, favoring buy-on-dips opportunities near key technical support. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Resistance Zone: 105.75 – 105.93 Support Zone: 105.15 – 105.37 Bullish Invalidation: Below 105.15 📌 Trade Summary AUD/JPY is holding above a critical support zone following a corrective pullback from recent highs. As long as price remains supported above 105.15, the bias favours a buy-on-dips approach, targeting a continuation toward the upper resistance band near 105.90. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Financial markets involve significant risk; proper risk and position management are essential.
Long
by ATFX_Global
AUD/JPY Price Outlook – Trade Setup📊 Technical Structure OANDA:AUDJPY AUD/JPY has rebounded toward 101.20 after defending the 100.40–100.70 support zone, keeping the medium-term uptrend structure intact. Price continues to trade above a rising trendline and the 100-day EMA, while momentum (RSI) remains in bullish territory. The chart shows a clear range within an ascending structure: Support zone: 100.40 – 100.70 Resistance zone / target area: 102.07 – 102.39 As long as the cross holds above 100.40, dips into support are likely to attract buyers, with upside potential back toward the 102.00+ resistance band. A decisive 4H close below 100.40 would invalidate the bullish scenario and expose the 99.80 area. 🎯 Trade Setup Idea: Buy dips into support, targeting a move back into the 102.00 resistance zone. Entry: 100.70 – 100.40 Stop Loss: 100.10 (below support and recent swing low) Take Profit 1: 102.07 Take Profit 2: 102.39 Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 2.81 Bias stays constructively bullish while price holds above 100.40–100.70 on a closing basis. A 4H close below this zone would warn that the bullish structure is breaking down. 🌐 Macro Background According to FXStreet, AUD/JPY has attracted buyers near 101.20 in early European trading as the Japanese Yen weakens on fiscal concerns and uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) tightening path. Mixed signals from Tokyo keep JPY under pressure, supporting the cross. BoJ & Japan: Markets remain unsure how quickly the BoJ will move away from ultra-loose policy. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated that FX intervention is possible if JPY moves become “excessively volatile and speculative,” which could cap AUD/JPY on sharp spikes higher. Australia: Traders are watching October CPI data due Wednesday for clues on the RBA’s rate path. A firmer CPI print could reinforce expectations that the RBA will keep policy relatively tight, lending support to AUD. Overall, BoJ uncertainty and relatively firmer Australian yields favour AUD/JPY on dips, but the risk of verbal or actual FX intervention argues for scaling out profits near resistance rather than chasing the move. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Resistance zone: 102.07 – 102.39 Interim resistance: 101.70–101.90 Support zone: 100.40 – 100.70 Invalidation level (bulls): 100.40 (4H close below) 📌 Trade Summary AUD/JPY remains in a gradually bullish structure above the 100-handle, with buyers defending the 100.40–100.70 support band. As long as this floor holds, the setup favours buying dips toward support and targeting 102.07–102.39 where prior supply and intervention risk may re-emerge. Traders should stay alert to Japanese officials’ comments and the upcoming Australian CPI release, which could amplify short-term volatility. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
Long
by ATFX_Global
1
AUD/JPY – H4 - Rising Wedge Breakdown | Key Zones Targeted📝 Description: The AUD/JPY pair is showing a clear Rising Wedge formation on the 4H timeframe, with three clean touches on the trendline—indicating weakening bullish momentum. Price has now broken below the lower trendline, suggesting increased probability of bearish continuation toward the next key zones. FX:AUDJPY This setup highlights: Rising Wedge pattern Trendline break Retest opportunity Key support zones at 99.00 and 97.80 AUD fundamentals: driven by commodity demand, RBA policy, and risk sentiment JPY fundamentals: influenced by BOJ stance, yields, and safe-haven flows This analysis is ideal for traders monitoring price action, forex patterns, and high-probability setups on AUD/JPY. Keep an eye on upcoming economic releases from RBA, BOJ, and US data, as they can influence risk sentiment and impact this pair heavily. ✅ Support this analysis with a LIKE 👍 | COMMENT 💬 | FOLLOW 🔔 It helps a lot & keeps the ideas coming! ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Forex trading involves high risk. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose and always do your own research.
Short
by AM_AlphaTrading
24
AUDJPY Overextended: Watching for a Corrective Pullback 📈 Taking a closer look at AUD/JPY, we can see that price is in a strong bullish trend, but currently overextended and trading into a major external range high — an area rich in liquidity 🏦. The market appears to be absorbing buy-side liquidity, signaling that a corrective phase may be approaching. From a structural standpoint, I’m monitoring two overlapping concepts — a potential Three-Drive pattern 🌀 and a Five-Wave structure that may lead into an ABC correction. Both suggest that price could be preparing for a deeper retracement before the next bullish leg resumes. At this stage, I’m not interested in buying at a premium 💸. Instead, I’ll wait for price to pull back, ideally into a discount zone, and then look for bullish structure confirmation to rejoin the trend. Patience here is key — let the market come to you. 🧘‍♂️ 💬 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always trade responsibly and manage risk effectively.
Long
by fxtraderanthony