Get started

Bitcoinbottom

Why so BULLISH for weekly Bitcoin ? Major 2022 Bear ReversalIt is all to do with some Short term SMA's and Bear market Signals. The Key to that is This :- 9 SMA orange 14 SMA Smoothing Green CAUTION when 9 is lost on a Month / Weekly chart MAJOR Caution if the 14 is also lost On the chart above, we see Weekly PA back above both the 9 and 14 Weekly SMA. But that is not all. Why is this a reversal of the 2022 Bear ? See how PA is also back above the .236 Fib Retrace line. As mentioned in the Chart, it is almost Exactly the same position after ATH, that PA Fell BELOW the .236 in 2022 See the sequence if arrows...thay are explained on the main chart. The time line of these moments is so very close to each other it is amazing. The 2 SMA crossovers at the same time period after ATH and Now, PA reaching BACK over the .236 where PA below in 2022. OBVIOUSLY, we need to remain above that 236 line. That is the zoomed in weekly and we see the current Week Candle has found support off the 14 SMA. Will it hold ? Impossible to answer But we do have Strength in PA right now and we are just waiting for the Monthly MACD to reach Neutral, a normal line of strong support. The weekly MACD is currently bouncing off Oversold. This line is reached around the start of Q3, June / July, providing PA does NOT reach higher before hand. However. We are in an area of Bullish reversal. Look at this Bitcoin channel chart The 3 lower day counts are when PA was on lower line of channel and how long it was there before a boumced...Ignore the Covid Flash Dip down...apart from to see how strong support is off this lime. Current PA is in this Time zone, though not yet at the line of support. IF PA continues to Range along the horizontal here, it reaches that Rising channel line in......Start of Q3 To me, this all adds confluence to the "Bottom is in" and we wait for Bullish moves higher once MACD shows Neutral. This is zoomed in on that channel We can certainly come back down to support in the 70K area and as mentioned in a my monthly report, I actually expect a RED May, which a retreat from current price, back to support, would give, But the fact that PA is above that .236 Fib retrace, at a time when we Dropped through it in 2022, is amazing And Bullish. Weekly MACD is bouncing off Oversold and we wait for monthly to arrive. The weekly being oversold may gove PA enugh strength to remain above that .236 fib line. The Fact we have passed a traditional Time period on or near the lower support line of channel, shows Bullish momentum is near..... So, for me, we are ready, The FEAR that can exist for a Drop to 40K is unfounded BUT it is a good odea tp be ready incase...... We need confirmation of this Bullish intent and That will be Give by PA remaining above that .236 over the next few weeks..... But we may see it lostm brieftly, towards end of month............ We just have to wait and see....................
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin (BTC) the big picture I'm looking atA lot of people are expecting Bitcoin to be at $35,000 and below. Personally, the levels I want to see are 1. For the price to go and get liquidity to the $49,100 level 2. Then we get stuck in a sideways situation until December. Based on the bear market cycle from the peak to where the market changes direction, we want 427 days. So we want another 252 days for Bitcoin to change direction. Always do your research but this is a plan I've been following for a while.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by BitsounisProject
Bitcoin near Month end with Green Bullish candle -Decision time To say Bitcoin is at a massive point is an understatement. This is were Bitcoin decides to follow tradition and follow patterns from previous cycles or it begins a new era.. Lets see the Month charts first Bitcoin still in the 2024 channel and after 5 months of Red, is currently printing a Green inverted Hammer. Bullish if it closes like this There have not been many months sequences like this. The nearest we can see to current pattern are the sequences in Boxes. Should March close Green, the possibility of a green april are high But I will discuss this in my monthy close post on 1st April. But we have something a little more interesting at hand right now. This Ascending channel was created in 2013 and Bitcoin entered a long term rising channel in 2017 and has only left it to reach to ATH. This cycle, PA has NOT Yet reached above to hit its ATH. The Current ATH was not even touching the upper trend line of this channel and PA is currently just above the Lower trend line of channel. This cycle Pattern has been Extremely compressed. We see where PA is currently, Ranging Low with a little Room to drop lower to the lower trend line if needed. Current Price line on trend line is around 61K The Lower Blue date range is the number of days, average, PA has spent on the lower trend line in previous cycles. This gives us an expected time zone for a push higher IF PA repeats previous cycles patterns The Orange box shows us the number of days PA was above the lower trend line of Rising channel before it fell BELOW in 2014. This was the ONLY time PA fell out of this channel. See the Blue day Box, Time PA spent range Low in channel before a push higher. Then we see rejection and PA fell out of channel. This type of Action is Very possibly to be repeated as PA is in a very similar situation, on the lower trendline very early in the Bear. Lets Look at the other Blue day ranges were we saw PA range along lower trend line. 2017 - 2021 49 day range low before a Push higher, returned to trend line in COVID but the strength of trend line supported PA well. 2021 - 2025 56 day Range Low before a push higher of the lower trend line. And Currently.................. We are getting near that date range were PA could push higher into April. We currently have an inverted Green Hammer month candle..Bullish. PA is oversold in many ways This does not mean April will close GREEN.............. Go back and look at what happened in 2014, we may get a push higher and then return to trend line. But we have seen, repeatably how strong that lower trend line is. What is important to realise here is how, for the last 2 full cycles, Bitcoin ranged Higher in an ascending channel, reaching Higher, above channel to the ATH. The Current PA cycle is compressed and the current ATH is still in channel. There is a very strong possibility that PA may fall out of this channel should the Bulls not manage to hold PA up; Statistically, April has more GREEN candle Month closes that Red......but if the cycle dtnamics change, this may not happen..... There are reasons why a New cycle dynamic could occure. PA fell below another long term trendline for the first time since 2014 For me, I am still very Bullish and I do believe that a New cycle is currently beig created. Maybe even a Super cycle. I also believe we will not see the 24K or even the 42K predicted by some and , infact, I believe this is the bottom Range with an absolute low around 58K We may Wick out of this ascending channel at some point as Macro pressure is HUGE right now.....But over all, We are Good......But Very interesting days. AND I COULD BE WRONG. SO REMAIN CAUTIOUS
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Simple Moving Averages Point to $50k BTC BottomIn this simple example looking at the 50, 100, 200, 300 simple moving averages we can see where there has been reliable support in Prior Cycles. Typically I prefer EMA's but this has historically been the best for finding Bitcoin bottoms since 2015 where we can see that BTC bottomed at the 300 week SMA (White Line), held low during the COVID crach, and which was also support near the bottom at the 2022 bear Market. Price did dip down below that temporarily with the FTX collapse but that's to be expected. The 200 week SMA in purple as also shown strong support as in the 2019 bear Market low and mostly held for the covid crash. At least the real body lows. So both are significant. We can see that the 100 week SMA in Red has been fairly good at holding price temporarily and a good barometer for whether price is bullish or bearish. Lastly the 50 week SMA in green is also been a good barometer for Market health and holding price as we've seen since 2023 and in Prior Cycles. What's important to here however is, I'm looking at Confluence for the bottom of the 300 week SMA coinciding with solid buy blocks (Green) showing limit buy order concentration on the exchange order books. These have traditionally been excellent reversal zones. We can also see cell pressure above current price as indicated by the limit cell order blocks in red, indicating heavy cell pressure on the exchange order books.. For all of these reasons I think it's more than likely that we continue to drift lower and find a bottom in that 50K range. That's where I'll be buying most likely. I do not see us going much lower than that. Questions and comments welcome. Let me know what you think in terms of where and when the bottom will be this year.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by BrettFogle
7
Bitcoin Monthly Candle Color Close since 2011- this is Rare,,,,, Febuary Closed RED This is the 5th Red Month candle close in a Row. We have only ever had ONE occasion where we had 5 or More Red months in a Row. August 2018 to January 2019. ( centre Box on Chart ) That went to 6 in a Row. Are the Odds in favour of a Green March ? On Paper, YES However, previous March closes are 6 Green to 8 Red and EVERY RED Febuary close has been followed by a RED March. ( Thin arrows on chart ) Simple as that. We are in uncertain territory, as The USA is in Iran...This Fundimental situation creates an Enviroment were RISK OFF Assets are more favorable. This leads to the Big question..What is next for Bitcoin? What has been HUGELY impressive over the last few days is how Bitcoin PA Has remainined in Range. Despite everything, Sold coins are still being Bought back. This shows confidence remains. There are only 3 previous occasions that could be seen as similar PA to this Drop. (Boxes on Currently, we have dropped near 53% on the 5 Red Candles. Previous Red candles Runs, with a single Green month inside on 2 occasions are, 2014 / 2015 = -76.5 2018 = -59.6% 2022 = -60.7%. Using those numbers, we could drop to aeound 50K if we reach the -60% A -76% drawdown takes us to 26K and I do not think this will happen. For me, we are on or near the Floor of this but obviously, we could go Deeper, but Technicaly, this is the Floor. My main resoning for saying this is the Flooe, is the VWAP Previous cycles VWAP and Current..... See how PA bounces of the cycle VWAP ? We are currently ON THAT. This is also the case for the 200 SMA ( Not Shown ) We are also in the area of the previous cycle ATH, traditionally, an area Low. Also, if we look at the PA in the boxes, we see the 5th red candle is near Bottom. Yes, we may drop lower if we loose currwnt supprt levels. But I see how PA has withstood the Macro situation in recent days....and I wait....... That is all we can do... March has more Red candles than Green but by a small Margin. After 5 Red Months, Odds Favour a Green 6th Month PA is oversold. But imagine if we get a Red March also...Look at April, May and June...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin 3-Day 'Death Cross' Signalling 50% Incoming Drop In this quick study I'm showing how in Prior Cycles Bitcoin has seen additional 40 to 50% drops from where we are now. On this 3-day charge and looking at the crossover of the 50. EMA below the 200. EMA in blue, we've seen previously deeper corrections in the 50% range. So while we could see a recovery balance in March, since we've been down 5 months with Red candles in a row. I still think this is ominous and looks poised to drop lower. My other studies show a drop to at least the $50,000 to $52,000 range where we can see buyers lined up there for a strong bounce, or potentially bottom using "buyer" block signals. But in this worst case scenario, we could see Bitcoin down to around the 34,000 level as an ultimate low. Questions and comments welcome. Let me know what you think in terms of where and when the bottom will be this year.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BrettFogle
67
Bitcoin SMA's showing changes in pattern and signals Change ?That chart is full but I will explain cleary, don't worry. To start. on the chart above:- SMA Color RED = 50 BLUE = 100 Orange day count boxes for ATH to SMA Bearish cross over Blue to next Bullish cross over. Grey Bullish cross over to ATH Yellow Box at end using -100 days each time ATH to cross over, First thing to see is the Orange box count, descending by around 100 days per cycle. This is ATH to Bearish crossover. 2013 ATH to Crossovere = 504 2017 ATH to Crossovere = 427 2021 ATH to Crossovere = 315 So we could project that is next bearish crossover this cycle would be in the 200 day count. And the rapidity of the descent from ATH and how we have already reached the support levels of the 200 SMA * Not shown) , could support this......and would bring us to the End of April for that crossover Lets look a little closer at this. If we project the 50 and 100 SMA on the current trajectory, that Bearish cross over would be in NOVEMBER So, already we are in a Change of pattern, unless Bitcoin Crashes So Low, So Fast that we get that cross over with in the next 7 weeks. Possible i suppose. However, it has to be said that the day counts in Blue BELOW PA, showing Bullish Crossover to Bearish Crossover also project a Bearish Crossover in Q4, around November also. So while this has confluence witn tne projected 50 and 100 SMA, it does break the pattern we have seen in the last 3 cycles of the reducing day count to Bearish cross over after ATH, by 100 days. IF the Bearish crossover is in Novenmber, that is near 400 days after ATH, as we had in 2017. What else ? Also look at how the Bearish Crossovers are so near the Cycle Lows....near the ends of the BEAR RUN (Please ignore last day count on right, left in accidently.) So what has changed here ? In 2013 and 2017, the Bearish crossover was AFTER the Cycle Low. In the 2022 Bear, the Bear Crossover was BEFORE the Cycle Low. This was most likely caused by the excessive pressure put on Crypto by the TradFi World... But what I Still find interesting is how these days counts are between 70 -> 90 days, no matter if the crossover was before or after the Low. This seems to be a Very Good Bottom Zone signal. That was Change number 2 As mentioned earlier, PA is already in a Strong support zone, on the / Around the 200 week SMA and on the Cycle VWAP. The VWAP chart os Below. Notice how VWAP from the current Cycle Low has always acted as strong support, The Bottom of the Bear after its ATH. Current PA is there already. So what could this mean ? What change could this bring to the Bircoin SMA ? If we remain in this Area above and on the Current VWAP, We get an extended day count to the Bearish crossover. If PA pushes Higher, Reaches for an ATH in Q2 as some expect, those 50 and 100 SMA MAY NOT CROSS BEARISH. This could be seen as sensationalist thinking, trying to for good Vibes in a Grey world and I agree,,,,It could be....But we have a number of things that point towards a change of cycle dynamics, the possibility of us entering a Super cycle. PA HAS broken a long term pattern and has fallen below Long term support line and it could be seen as a beginning of a new era in Bitcoin PA and we simply have to wait and see if it happens or not...... What could support an idea of a Q3 Push higher ? In June this year, the monthly MACD reaches Neutral line. The only time the monthly MACD has been below Neutral was in the Super Bear, driven by distrust, TradFi dislike and such...the environment could be different this time..... MACD bouncing in June may not tale PA up right away but it would certainly restore the confidence and.........................................well, we have to wait and see..... To so many extents, Cycle dynamics are different and, yet, others are the same... Change happens in smaall steps....................... Enjoy the ride
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin relief rally or bull trap? Tracking the $74K threshold!Bitcoin has caught a bid overnight, driven by improved risk appetite following Nvidia’s earnings report. However, under the surface, the technical structure remains pressured. With Nvidia opting to reinvest cash it generates in 2026 rather than return to shareholders, this boost isn't necessarily the macro catalyst Bitcoin needs for a sustainable run. As long as BTC/USD stays below the $74,000 resistance threshold, the risk of a deeper macroeconomic correction looms large. Key topics covered - Bull trap : Why the lack of a bullish divergence on the daily RSI suggests the current bounce is corrective. If prices roll over from here, we could form a hidden bearish divergence, confirming a lower high and signalling the bottom with an ending diagonal. - Elliott Waves : We break down the probability that we are currently in an incomplete 5-wave impulse to the downside. We also explore the potential for an ABC structure, which would send prices towards $100k but then reverse to a fresh low to put in a new low. - Cyclical history : Cyclical patterns suggest Bitcoin is still in a bear market. With the top forming in late 2025 as expected, history suggests a potential bottom may not form until November, casting doubt on a genuine V-shape recovery or rotation into altcoins. - Magnet zone : Breaking down the key Fibonacci resistance levels on the short-term chart, specifically the 38.2% and 50% retracements, which act as a magnet zone around $74,000 to $79,000. BTC/USD scenarios & trade plan: Bullish : If the $60,000 low was the end of an internal wave 3, a new impulse has begun. A confirmed breakout above $70,000 opens a short-term long opportunity toward the $74,000-$75,000 zone. Alternatively, a larger corrective bounce (Wave A ended at $60k) could even target the $100,000-$101,000 region (61.8% macro Fib) before turning lower again. Bearish : The current bounce is a trap. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $74,000, the broader structure points to another leg lower. A break below $60,000 opens the door to $50,000 and potentially lower as the fifth wave of the current bearish sequence completes. Are you trading the breakout or fading the rally? Share your thoughts in the comments. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:BTCUSDLong
by ThinkMarkets
Bitcoin Daily - PA Still in Range despite "Crash" DON'T PANIC So I wake up in Europe to emails and posts Crying, screaming about how Bitcoin has crashed and that the Fear and Greed index is even lower in Extreme Fear. And I Lean back, drink my coffee and hit the BUY BUTTON And all this panic is wasted energy. and superb Buying oppertunities. As we see on the main chart, Bitcoin is Still in the upper Half of the Range. This does not mean it cannot go lower and, the 58K - 56K mark is the Lower line of this Range for me At the moment, we have strong support around the 63600 on the Cycle VWAP line (Yellow) Quick reminder, VWAP, or Volume Weighted Average Price, is a technical indicator that calculates the average price a security has traded at throughout the day, weighted by the volume of trades at each price level. It serves as a benchmark for measuring fair value and execution quality, especially for institutional traders and algorithmic systems Just to show you the Strength of the VWAP line, here is the weekly, with the VWAP lines from each of the last 3 Cycle Lows. The Red lines are positive Multiples of each VWAP and act as Support / Resistance. Should current VWAP line break, we have support on the Multiples below ( from previous cycles) at 56800 and 55 K, the Red box on the main chart IF we were to loose Those last 2, that is when I begin getting Nervous and it is entirely possible...I just do not think that will happen for Long..IF it happens. Bitcoin is Oversold on so many timeframes....Just waiting to go when the time comes. And as mentioned yesterday, We may see ups and downs for the next few months but I think the Bigger Move will be in Q3 & Q4 So, until then, we can expect all kinds of FUD and FEAR BUT it is always a good idea to be ready incase the situation changes... So, Have plans for all Situations. Welcome to the last week of Febuary. The 5th Red Month in a Row. This does point towards a higher probability for a Green March next month....but again, we have to wait and see.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BITCOIN CYCLE DYNAMIC INTACT & this shows us near Floor For me, it is THIS Chart that really gives us an idea of where BTC PA is in relation to a Bottom. This completely depends on Bitcoin remaining in its usual patterns......Which it may not be but we will not know until it changes, IF it Happens. So, the main chatrt shows us a part of the Bigger picture below. Bitcoin in its Next Cup, which it has reached the Bottom zone of. There is room for a further dip down to the real true base line at around 59780 area. This chart shows us the Channel that PA may continue to range in, from 64K up to around 69K top Should PA fall out of this Range, we have rising lines of support lines here arounf 60K to 63K Technically strong. Here is another Weekly chart This gives us another Range Box, with a low arounf 58500 on the cycle 3 Fib extension. We could see a Wick down to around the 58K line but I am certain this would be a swift recovery Confluence with the Original chart above. Again, we see that Range Box with potential lower levels. This weekly shows us that PA has already Wicked down and bounced off the 200 week SMA. The 200 week SMA is a traditinal line of support. Currently at around.....58500 Now, the 3rd Set of Charts are the VWAP charts. Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is a technical indicator that calculates the average price a security has traded at throughout a specific period—typically a single trading day—weighted by trading volume. It provides a benchmark for assessing fair value and execution quality by giving more importance to prices at which larger volumes were traded. This is the Monthly VWAP chart with the VWAP origins at the Cycle lows after the previous ATH VWAP Colors - Light Blue - 2015, White - 2018, Yellow - 2022 The Red lines are Multiples of the various VWAPs and act as strong support . resistance. See how PA pretty well NEVER Drops below the VWAP Lets zoom in to the weekly PA did drop below the VWAP Twice on the 2021 ATH White line VWAP, once on Covid and then after the FTX Crash in 2022. Not normal circumstances. The Daily VWAP chart and price levels Key levels are The Current Cycle VWAP is 63522 usd and for Me, I am seeing THAT as the floor line..... the absolute level under normal circumstances should the support levels above break. Again, in the same tight price range as the other charts above.. Confluence is Vital. Should we see an extraordinary MACRO incident, we have levels of support below, initially at 57K and 55K. It is always a Very Good idea to understand the potential for a lower drop than expected and with this in mind, we should see the lower VWAP lines too 40600 in the 1.236 Fib extension 35K and 27K on the VWAP But the Real test for me, that I am watching VERY closely is back on the Original chart It is VERY Simple. WILL PA REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM ASCENDING CHANNEL OR WILL IT DROP OUT AND SHOW US THAT CYCLE DYNAMICS HAVE CHANGED. Time will tell
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
4
How to Watch a BITCOIN BEAR and Bottom watching. :-) ........... There are so many tools to use when trying to identify Bitcoin Bear signals and markers. But it is actually not really that complicated. All you need are 2 SMA's and the RSI Lets Get in On the chart above... 21 SMA - Orange 50 SMA - Red On a monthly chart, Above, When that 21 SMA drops below PA, THAT is the Confirmation of a Bear. On a Weekly chart. It is the 50 SMA that Gives the First signal...When that drops below PA, start looking at the monthly chart. The Boxes on the chart are started off a Weekly chart. On a Month Chart, Note how that 50 SMA acts as support, usually. This is the "Bottom Zone Marker" It will be the 200 SMA on a Weeklu chart. So, there we are,,,,simple identifiers to see the Start and the possible Low off a Bear market. What about the End ? That is next to impossible..................However, the RSI can show us historical data that we should not ignore. Before we look at the RSI, Go back and look at the Main chart. Take Note of the Vertical Dashed lines, Off ATH and then the Vertical Dotted lines. The Monthly RSI is invaluable. The Vertical Dotted lines are the LOW point of the RSI draw down. And as we can see, this does NOT always indicate the End of the Bear But the turning point of the RSI. Something very interesting is how the Day count from ATH to the RSI low point was the same after 2017 and 2021. If we use that same day number now, Does that mean we can expect tp wait till November this year ? NO - Maybe, Impossible to say But what Is very interesting now..is that Horizontal line that RSI has bounced off previously. We have reached that point SO FAST. Will that momentum continue and fall below that line , as in 2022 ? Again, impossible to say but this needs to be watched. So, Quick look back at main chart Look at those Dotted lines again, the Low point of the RSI. While Not the End of the Bear, officially, There Was a Range or a Rise in Price from these points...The BOTTOM was identified. And we could be there NOW>..... Personalty, I think a Range is more likely for a while but we may see a push higher for the Spring Push but statisticaly, that may not happen till Mid March / April On a monthly Candle Close Color count., Feb has 10 Green to 4 Red - going to be hard to get a Green this time. March has 6 Green to 8 Red April has 9 Green to 5 Red So, all we can do is wait..... For now, I am assuming we are on or near the Bottom unless something Stupid happens in the eworld... So, I buy Sats, amd Wait......................Cautiously
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
8
Bitcoin reached Lower trend line of long term Ascending Channel Going to just say this Clean and simple Lets remind ourselves of the Bigger picture Bitcoin has used 4 Cups and a Trendline channel since it started. It entered the channel in 2017 and has been in it ever since. PA just got down to the lower trendline. That is where PA is right now. There are multioke lines of supprt here, Not all shown. Previous occasions were PA can to this line. 2022 2020 The Covid Crash did manage to get PA below that line butnot for Long. 2019 It is Highly unlikely that PA will Drop out of this channel....But It could.... We need to remember this From the 2013 ATH, PA did Drop out. This was BEFORE PA had fully entered channel BUT there is a chance that we could do this again as we see Bitcoin enter a new Series if cycle patterns. ( this is covered in other posts ) For now though, I will carry on watching Bitcoin and hope we remain in channel and so , see that we may have Hit a Bottom Zone. This will only be confirmed when we have pushed higher and repassed 100K Why? Because if we get a Big bounce from here, PA has NEBER gpne to a New ATH directly.....We Rose, Dipped, Rose pr Just Ranged. A quick look at where we are now. There we are. But under the 2021 ATH line ( dotted ) That line could be strong resistance. I think PA Will cross it and use it as support..If that happens, I get more Bullish... I think we are as low as we will go..Could Flash down and recover quick..But.......... We maybe here for a while but not months...We could shoot up and get rejected.. Be cautious.............
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Deep dives into Support zone - Can it Hold position ? That Deep Dive was a little surprisingand Quick but Given the speed of events right now, I was Stupid to think PA would hang around on the upper lines of support. The Bears seem to want to show Strength. It is now time for the Bulls to Show us they are Here. PA went right down to the 3 Fib Extension at approx 60K usd. Do we have support here ? The 4 hour chart We can seea Very Clear line of support off the Bottom line as PA touched it and bounced right back up to the Middle line. It is this line that now needs to be Crossed and held as support. The 1 hour chart is not one I use very often However, when it comes to Situation like this, It is perfect for showing us the initial stages of recovery....or not... As we look on the 4 hour chart, we see PA appears to have Halted at the Dashed Middle line. 1 hour chart The ! hour actualy shows us that PA did get over that middle line but then came back down to test it as support. At the time of writing, this line is holding.................... Let me show you another 1 hour chaart This shows us a Close up of PA and 3 SMA's Orange is 9 SMA Green is 14 and RED is 50 Se how PA is sitting on the 9.......so long as it remains there....we are able to piush higher. But do remember, the 1 hour charts are "Noisey" , easy to be mislead....Only use to see initial stages.....No more. The 4 hour shows us another story] Here you can see how the 9 SMA actually REJECTED PA. SO, Do we have support Here ? Potentially, YES but there is yet to be better confirmation of its ability to Keep PA here for a While. This area is a Superb Buying Area BUT remeber, this is only a 50% draw down from ATH. If We are to have a Traditional Bear, we have anoterh 30% to go...... But we simply do not know if that will happen..................... Caution..........
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Monthly- IF in Bear, What has marked the End previously Bitcoin - What shows us we are near or on the Bottom? THIS DOES Bitcoin Monthly Chart 50 SMA RED 100 SMA BLUE The 50 Month SMA was tested by the End of Bear Markets in 2015 and and 2019 and marked the bottom. PA Bounced PA fell through it when tested in 2022 and PA found support on a long term trend line. On this chart, since the 50 Month SMA came into being, it has only been lost on 4 occasions and Only Once for longer than a month. See Arrows on charts above * On a Wick down in August 2015 * On a Wick down in March 2020 ( Covid) * For an 8 Month period in the DEEP Bear market were companies like 3 Arroes, Celcious and FTX collapsed due to external pressure and stupidity * And a small candle down in September 2023 The Dashed Red lines are showing the current 50 Month SMA price of around 57K usdt. and projected path PA is not testing that yet as it usualy does at the end of a Bear. As and When we get there, this may lasts no longer than a month.. but that is not a guarantee. To me, this is simply showing us were we are in this Market. IF this is a BEAR Market, We are NOT Near the Bottom or on the Bottom . PA is however on that long term line of support. the November candle wicked down to it and bounced Already in December, we have done the same. On a weekly chart, we can see how the 50 was lost and PA is now testing the 100, just above the long term support. This cycle, that trend line has been Very important in the early stages of recovery from the 2022 Bear If this is just a correction, we could be near a decision point as we watch that 100 Weekly SMA and see if PA can hold above it.....-> So, IF we are in a Bear Market and not just a Correction, we may have a LONG way to go yet. Down to that 50 Month SMA. As we have seen in the past, This Month candle can Wick down Deeply. So if you are greedy enough, or stupid enough to be using Leverage. Make sure you are ready. Or have the Dynamics of BTC PA changed now.? We will have to wait and See.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Forecasting the Cycle High... And Next Bear Market Low?This is an interesting study I originally did 2 years ago. What started as a conversation with a student, who asked me if we could somenow 'project the next Bear market low'... It got me thinking, and experimenting. In this video I share the nearly 'accidental' discovery we made, and I think people might finding interesting (albeit pure speculation and most probably wrong). Any comments welcome. PS> Apologies for the rambling, it's been a long day.
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
by BrettFogle
Bitcoin accurate bottom and top zones BINANCE:BTCUSDT This is my market mood indicator. Accurate determine the bottoms and top of cycles. Based on this analysis on BLX chart and Monthly timeframe we can find something interesting - Marked Monthly green zones. - We never seen white color disbeliefe zones. - Previews 3 times when we saw BLUE color it was a bottom (I was impressed how accurate it play out!!!) - Now it looks like 2018-2019 period (green box-blue-green) - So now no euphoria on market. Need to see yellow, orange and top will be again at extreme red - Hard to say about timing but most likely we will test trendLine at 35-36 (maybe with fake out to 41) - Then we will see yellow and orange color on indicator and drop to covid trendLines again 21-19 and continue move forward till 2025 March to extreme RED zones and end of cycle. Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. --- • Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ • For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
BNC:BLXLong
by Crypto4light
BTC/USDT = Dominance Signals Bitcoin's Next Bullish MoveTL;DR for Busy Readers 95% confidence that Bitcoin has bottomed at $52.5k, with the worst possible scenario at $50.4k. The USDT Dominance Chart is showing resistance levels not seen since the last bear market when Bitcoin was around $27k. For Bitcoin to hit $44k, USDT dominance would need to enter bear market territory, which is highly unlikely. A 30%+ downside move in USDT dominance suggests more capital will flow into Bitcoin, signaling a bullish uptrend. The odds are heavily in favor of Bitcoin moving upward from here, and I expect it to play out over the rest of the month. I’m 95% confident that we’ve bottomed out at $52.5k, and the worst case scenario would be $50.4k. Additionally, I’m 95% certain we won’t see a drop to $44k or anywhere near it. Here’s why. The USDT Dominance Chart: A Key Indicator One of the most reliable charts for predicting Bitcoin tops and market reversals is the USDT Dominance chart. This chart tracks the dominance of Tether (USDT) in the market, and right now, it’s showing levels not seen since the last bear market when Bitcoin was trading around $27k. Currently, USDT Dominance is at critical resistance, touching levels that are typically only observed during bear markets. Historically, when USDT dominance hits these levels, it signals a bottom for Bitcoin and the beginning of an uptrend. Additionally, the USDT dominance chart indicates we could see over a 30%+ move to the downside in USDT dominance, meaning more capital will flow out of stablecoins and back into Bitcoin and other cryptos. This is a strong indicator that Bitcoin is bottoming out and preparing for a bullish move. Why $44k is Unlikely For Bitcoin to drop to $44k, USDT dominance would have to enter territory that we’ve only ever seen in true bear markets. If this happens, it could break the higher timeframe (HTF) structure on both the USDT dominance chart and the Bitcoin chart, and ultimately, we wouldn’t just stop at $44k—we’d probably end up around $30k. That’s why if you’re hoping for $44k , you’re really wishing for a major bear market that could pull Bitcoin down much further. This scenario would mean a shift in the current market structure, which doesn’t align with the probabilities we’re seeing. Upside Probability is Much Higher While there’s always a chance that USDT dominance could break higher and push the market lower, the probability of this happening is very small in my opinion. Investing is all about probabilities, and when we assess the entire market situation, it’s clear that the upside is heavily favored right now. Based on the data, the market structure, and the USDT dominance chart, the likelihood of Bitcoin continuing upward from here is very high. It’s important to monitor how the market behaves in the coming weeks, but all signs point toward a bullish move. My years of experience kind of Opinion In summary, the USDT dominance chart is signaling that we’ve likely seen the bottom at $52.5k, and the chances of Bitcoin falling to $44k or lower are extremely slim. If anything, this level of USDT dominance typically indicates that a Bitcoin rally is on the horizon. Stay cautious, but it looks like the market is gearing up for an uptrend. Let's see how the rest of the month plays out, but from where I stand, the upside looks very promising. DISCLAIMER: All though I predicted the market at 18K pump, this prediction is still for informational/documentation of my journey and entertainment purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. As with all investments, there are risks involved, and probability-based analysis may not always result in accurate predictions. Always consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
KUCOIN:BTCUSDTLong
by osodatsismoso
BTCUSDT | Potential Bottom for Now?Market Context Is this the potential bottom for Bitcoin? Let’s dive into the current situation. Chart Analysis Yesterday, I speculated about a push up, and today, it seems we might be at a temporary bottom for BTC. Key Indicators There are several signs pointing to this being a potential bottom: • Failed Push Down: We attempted to break through 65k but were quickly pulled back up. • Strong Support at 67k: Yesterday, we saw another pullback from 67k, indicating strong buying pressure. • Bullish Fundamentals: Market fundamentals are suggesting a move higher. Strategy Given these factors, I’m not convinced we’ll see 60k again soon. While there’s always a possibility, the current indicators suggest we might move higher from here. Action Plan With a solid risk management plan in place, I believe it’s a good idea to try going long today. Let’s see if this bottom holds and we get the expected push up! Stay tuned for updates—this could be an exciting move!
BYBIT:BTCUSDT.PLong
by minno91
Bitcoin 28000 in August. And when we find the bottom? BINANCE:BTCUSDT The problem with technical analysis - we have a so much indicators and technics which showed us different numbers. On candles chart youll see another numbers, with lines totally different, and also on different timeframes either will show one more side of chart, so we dont know which one is correct. BUT Daily timeframe chart on BTC in Line chart look like this now. Possible Targets ➡️Downtrend line with 2 perfect touches, waiting third touch, most likely with rejection again around 28000 ➡️Between 28000 - 32000 now very strong sellers zone, which I dont think we break in August. ➡️ After test 28000-30000K we can slowly going down but over downtrend line to buyers zone again 19000 by end of September/October ➡️19100 Previews ATH 2017 and around 13100 in 2018 by line chart so I think we will hold the line and dont break this levels ➡️ The crowd is waiting 10-5K the same like Crowd waited 100K - huge trap! ➡️ My most negative scenario is around 15300 in November - test global yearly support line so everyone open short and waiting 10K sure ➡️ After October Im expecting sideways move and total disbelieve on market, so in November we slowly start new cycle. Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. * Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ * For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
BINANCE:BTCUSDTLong
by Crypto4light