Bubble theory 🫧 BTC minersThere are two type of bubbles and they burst for different reasons? A bubble is when too many people hold something and what has driven prices up, now as a force works against them.
There's a saying. Buy things when everyone is a skeptic. Sell when a taxi driver starts talking about investing. There are no more buyers left on top.
First bubble is when volume dries up as the price hits extremes.
Second is when peoples attitudes or sentiment, or opinions change to bearish. And that can happen over night, like a switch. It's interesting and finance is a social science.
Some bubbles can burst due to external events, like start of wars or some financial crisis.
There can be strong bull markets and most of times, these external events would just be noise?
> Was btc miners in bubble? And what type of bubble?
I think Yes and No? Whenever there's a risk free trade, supported by factors a bubble emerges? The price of Mara was rallying hard, trend was strong. You could argue people got over optimistic, knowing the ETF decision was a risk event. -> therefor (the burst) was sentiment driven. But also predictable?
Bubble is when too many people hold asset and there re no buyers left. Similar how a taxi driver is hype about investing.
Technical analysis gives you perspective and context. In 1st instance, impulse was too high and volume indicates crowding? It's tricky because it looks so bullish.
In 2nd instance, impulse was too low. Price action looked bullish? bubbles happen when too many people hold the shares and expect them to rise.
If 1st instance was sentiment switch driven, then 2nd time, the bubble must burst due to exhaustion (or no people left to buy... at these prices.. similar how taxi driver hops in the trade at the wrong time).
Factors and thesis can be bullish - and bubble still bursts.
Is NVDA and SMCI a bubble?
I think there is difference between NVDA, SMCI investors and their time horizon? It could be. I think people believe their investment is supported by the tech drivers. Every dip should be bought out by smart investors and these are the best assets to own in next 5-10 years.
It doesnt mean there cant be external events and risks.
again- bubble is when too many people are in investment. So bubble can burst either by them changing their sentiment or beliefs (maybe fundamentals must change?). Or if price is just so ridiculously high or there is no money left at sidelines, that trend can't be sustainable.
When markets rally - everyone only reads good news and ignores bad news. And vice versa. #HowardMarks #MarketCycle
---> The Risk-Reward buying at these tops just isn't great. That's why they burst. Accompanied by sentiment risks, that hide behind the hood.
Bitcoinmarkets
HOW TO $1k to $12.4mil in 83 trades on BTCUSD1D BITFINEX w/ NSV4Through an analysis of 83 trades, NSV4 ('Ninja Signals V4' by BitcoinNinjas.org) has demonstrated its ability to turn a modest $1,000 investment into an impressive $12.4 million, showcasing remarkable potential.
In this particular configuration, NSV4 massively outperformed almost any other strategy including the traditional 'buy and hold' in the backtesting of this example.
This chart specifically provides insights and a deeper understanding of the effectiveness and potential of this indicator. It is one of the single best charts ever backtested for Ninja Signals. We have spent years receiving feedback from users and cultivating our script while backtesting different charts and timeframes to achieve this level of success.
The reliability and continual profit over time for 10+ years is astounding in this particular case!
This configuration is unique to this exchange, although is likely to achieve similar results on other exchanges (trading the same pair and the same time interval), perhaps needing only a few minor tweaks.
Let us dissect NSV4's performance and discover the principles that have made it a game-changer. How is it possible to turn 1k into 12.4m in 83 trades?
First of all, you can see that the first trade was in 2013, so these settings are backtested for over 10 years. This didn't happen over night.
Also, this configuration adds the profit of the previous trade to the next trade. On a bot, this would equate to using the entire balance of the account with each trade, and continually increasing the trade amount as profit accrues. Here, we are 'compounding the interest' and using 100% of the trade balance for each trade. This is referred to as "Compounding".
We always make sure that a configuration is highly profitable with compounding OFF before we turn it on. In this case, the results are magical.
When we are backtesting for the best configurations, there are a few things to keep in mind,
these principles are true for any Alerts generating indicator:
1) Has it traded recently, within the last few months? (Yes)
2) Has it been profitable each year if only traded for that year? (Yes)
3) Has it broke even or performed well in a bear market? (Yes)
As you can see, this configuration has traded recently,
It also meets all of the other criteria. Therefore, this would suffice as a tradeable config in our eyes.
In short, why is this pack so successful?
1) Compounding.
2) Long trading history (10yr+).
3) Low SL (Stop Loss) of 6 prevents losing large amounts and keeps trades tight.
4) The results without compounding are stellar to begin with, good start, good finish.
5) Years of backtesting experience from our team culminates in epic configurations.
The 1D chart equates to a longer period of time between trades than most people are used to, which results in approx 1 trade per 1-2 months.
Most people are looking for quick scalping trades but as you can see here, NSV4 has steadily outperformed almost any strategy using complex combinations of basic trading principles and trading for a long period of time.
The tortoise wins the race, in this case.
We generally like to use NSV4 between 60m and 1D, anywhere in between. Sometime obscure timeframes such as 177m or 431min seem to do well. It takes time backtesting to find the best results, as with any script.
Do you know of any other Alerts generating indicators on TradingView that have achieved this level of success? I haven't found any yet! I am anxious to try these settings and to keep testing!
-spiftheninja
PROFIT WHILE YOU SLEEP
AI-Assisted Channel Patterns: Visuals for Precision TradingTypes of Channel Pattern
In this educational post, we won't take a trading position, but rather equip you with valuable insights. Today, we delve into the world of channel chart patterns. Channels come in two primary forms: bullish and bearish. Understanding these patterns is essential. A bullish channel appears as a descending pattern, resembling a falling rectangle, while a bearish channel manifests as an ascending pattern within rising rectangles.
Technicals of Channel Patterns
But why are these channels so important? Bullish channels often precede a shift from a bearish trend to a bullish one, signaling a shift from a pessimistic to an optimistic market outlook. Conversely, bearish channels frequently herald a move from a bullish trend to a bearish one, indicating a transition from an optimistic to a pessimistic market sentiment.
Application of Channel Patterns
Channels serve various purposes, from brokers illustrating their expectations to traders preparing for upcoming trends. They also offer an excellent opportunity for automation, as modern AI systems can detect channels with remarkable precision, often exceeding 70%.
Our Notes to Channel Patterns
However, it's worth noting that channel patterns are seldom used in isolation. To make the most of them, traders often combine AI-assisted channel detection systems with volume analysis. When analyzing BTC-USD markets across nine exchanges and over five years, we found that volume frequently aligns with precisely defined channel patterns.
By incorporating volume as a technical indicator and leveraging AI-generated channels, you can enhance your trading strategies and increase your chances of success in the cryptocurrency markets. Best of luck in your trading endeavors!
Best regards,
ELI
Why Layoffs may be a good thing for Bitcoin and Crypto SummerQ. “Can layoffs in the Crypto space be what's needed for the next Crypto-Summer and Crypto Boom?”
A. While layoffs are never pleasant for those affected and for the price, I do believe they can have positive effects on the crypto market in the future.
Here are four reasons why:
Reason #1: There are less costs for the companies
Laying off workers can help crypto companies reduce costs. There’ll be less salaries to pay, less incentives, less commissions etc…
And this will allow them to weather the current downturn and emerge stronger when the market eventually recovers.
This cost-cutting could potentially help companies maintain their positions in the market and remain competitive.
Reason #2: They can focus on their core competencies
When companies layoff workers, this can also help companies refocus on what they need to focus on and work on in other departments.
This can help crypto companies streamline their operations and become more efficient, which can improve their chances of success in the long term.
Reason #3: More money for innovation
With the company cutting costs and with the companies able to gain more income, this is good for R&D.
With their research and development they can focus their attention on new innovations and recreations with their current offerings.
And they may be able to acquire new technologies, which will attract new investors to buy, that can help them remain competitive in the market.
Reason #4: Weed out the less needed
The recent layoffs may help weed out weaker, less competitive and less needed workers in the market.
This will also help them gain accountability and provide the current work force with better projects, training and prepare them for a well-run and better positioned future.
Market efficiencyWhat is market efficiency, how does it affect earning potential?
What does "market efficiency" mean, and how does it affect the chances of making money?
Today, we'll talk about how well the crypto market works. We'll look at how quickly it takes in new information and how you can make money from price changes. We are also looking to the near future, when efficiency will go up and there will be less cash and inefficient niches.
How Does the Market Work?
The speed and accuracy with which information about projects and assets is added to the price shows how efficient the market is. This happens almost right away in markets that work well, but it takes a long time or doesn't happen at all in markets that don't work well.
For instance, the US stock market in 1906 is not very good at what it does. Then there was an earthquake in San Francisco, and only three days later, the shares of the Pacific Railroad fell apart. The news from east to west moved too slowly.
In 2022, the oil market works well. As soon as OPEC and other countries talked about how they could work together to set a high cap on oil prices, the price went up. That is, no one even raised the ceiling. The price goes up right away because OPEC+ lets this happen.
In general, the idea of how well a market works is a theory. Economists have been arguing about whether or not it works for the past 50 years. This idea comes in three different forms.
Weak Efficient Market Hypothesis: All market information from the past is included in the price of an asset.
Average Efficient Market Hypothesis: The price of an asset includes all market information from the past and all publicly available information from the present.
Strong Efficient Market Hypothesis: The price of an asset takes into account all market information from the past, public information from the present, and insider information.
We won't keep going back and forth between ideas. The article only needs to know that efficiency is a measurement of how quickly and accurately the market takes in information. Another question is where this information came from.
What determines how well the market works?
The most important thing is just one thing: the number of trades and how liquid the market is. The market will be more efficient if there are more transactions, and less efficient if there are less.
From the amount of money in the market, other things grow: the speed of transactions, the infrastructure, and the speed at which information comes out. But in general, they show up on their own when there are enough investors for someone to want to make money on investment infrastructure.
For instance, the elite art market doesn't work well. Not a lot of artists charge a lot for their paintings, and not a lot of people are willing to buy them. There, news moves slowly from person to person. The price is not set by the way the market works. Instead, it is set by haggling.
This also works in the stock markets. For "blue chips" like Apple, which are traded by the most investors, the difference in price between buy and sell orders is very small. This means that at any time, the market can very accurately figure out the fair value of the security.
Spreads widen where there is less liquidity, and it can be hard to figure out what a fair price is: it "walks" in the spread gap.
Here, by the way, the ideas of people who believe that markets take in information so quickly that it is impossible to make money on them fall apart.
Everything is simple: if markets are really so efficient that you can't make money by having more information, traders and capital would have left long ago, liquidity would have collapsed, markets would have become inefficient again, and capital would have returned.
But we don't talk about the theory here.
If you are interested in cryptocurrencies, why do you need to know this?
Yes, it is useful even if you are not interested in cryptocurrencies.
By definition, it's hard to make money in markets that work well. If the market is working well, it quickly takes in new information and reacts to what's going on around it. This means that any results of fundamental or technical analysis have already been factored into prices by other market participants. You can buy and sell things, but it will be like a casino.
It's easier to make money when markets don't work well. The less efficient a market is, the more likely it is that you can learn more about the other people in it, act faster, and make more money.
Can cryptocurrency be seen as a market that works well?
The article was written so that this math could be done. No, is the short answer. In one of the most recent studies, experts compared Bitcoin prices to the prices of gold, the S&P500, and the USD/EUR currency pair, which are all well-known assets.
The rate of price change was multiplied by the market capitalization to figure out how well the market worked.
It turned out that the crypto market is much smaller than traditional markets, but here information is "absorbed" much more quickly. This is because trading goes on 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and information spreads quickly. Also, it's not hard to start trading.
But trading in BTC is not as good as trading in traditional assets. It is clear that the efficiency of most other currencies is even lower, and somewhere in the NFT segment, it is much lower.
Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch!
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
---
• Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓
• For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
How to Catch a Falling Bitcoin KnifeAnother Ultra Long Term chart ( I hate doing short term trades !)
Here is a VERY IMPORTANT quote from Jason Shapiro from the book “Unknown Market Wizards” by Jack Schwager:
" Everyone understands that the market is a discounting mechanism. What people don't understand is that the discounting mechanism is not the price, it is participation. Its not that the price has gone from 50 to 100 and thus the bullish fundamentals are discounted. Its about everyone is long and hence bullish fundamentals are discounted. An example: when amazon stock was about 700-800 everyone said it was ridiculous, calling it a bubble. It was clear though that most people didn't own it else they would not call it a bubble. The stock is now trading above 2300 based solely on participation."
So here is a take on participation (measured using VPVR) over two BTC bull runs (signaled in the chart with a 50-100 MA cross) :
A: Participants who think halving is bullish accumulate thinking (rightly so far) doing so will be a low risk trade.
B: Participants add on to existing positions on bullish confirmation that halving has caused a price rise, long term bears with a functioning pre-frontal cortex jump in.
C: Participants who bought the top in the previous cycle try to get rid of their trauma seeing that price is back at their buy price. Buyers buy their bags. People who are hyper intelligent rationalize that previous top should be the new resistance sell. Too smart they are. The real resistance was Price level B.
D: Participants who think they will buy BTC when it crashes below previous ATH, fomo at these levels after BTC has a near vertical rally, offering no point of entry. Some folks who sold at C buy back again, continuing to rationalize that at least they averted a “potential” bearish scenario.
E: WELCOME NOOBIES
People who do not have the stomach of bearing pain for long term gain, sell at break-even OR at a loss. So two patterns emerge:
1. BUY > price goes down (trauma) > price goes up (hope) > SELL (relief) , OR
2. BUY > price goes up (euphoria) > price goes down (shock) > SELL (relief)
Next bear market bottom: Placing some bids around D and E to catch a falling knife seems to be a good idea. Average in of course coz you never know if price will actually reach D and E. Participants change over time. And as you I show in my display picture: No Pain, No Lambo😊
CHRISTMAS BONUS!!! $25,000 IN 48 HOURS!!!
$1,000,000.00 a year is only $2730 a day.
$2730 a day is only $110 per hour if you earn money 24 hours a day.
If you're only working 8 hours a day, how do you make money in the other 16 hours?
You need a business that pays you whilst you sleep. Simple!
There is nothing wrong with having a job to pay the bills, but a job rarely sets you financially free. You need a business that pays you 24 hours a day, 365 days a year that you can build in the pockets of your time.
Crypto currencies and forex investments opportunities can do that for you.
Bitcoin -a brief history of the "confirmed" bull markets 2018-19Hi guys!
I have decided to create this diagram to show you, how majority of the crypto community has reacted to every single
counter trend rally (and "trendline break" ) from all time high to present.. I am almost sure that these series are not over and we will see a couple of more "definitely" confirmed bull markets all the way down to real capitulation.
All the best and, take care a stay patient!
-DP-
Comparing the 2014-2015 with the 2018-2019 bear markets!Fundamental analysis only!
TLDW;
What makes the 2018-2019 bubble more bearish:
More scams (shitcoins - ponzis - cloud mining scam - giveaways)
Big shitcoin increase (too many shitcoins - all fighting each other for liquidity)
Shitcoin inflation (Too many premined shitcoins / ICOs - no fairness)
Easier to short (Way easier for people to short BTC etc, because they don't believe in them - sucking fiat value out)
Cash settled futures (Big players got in early and had this all planned - Also Cash settled futures suck liquidity from spot markets
Lots of new scam exchanges and fake volume (Some of these exchanges might be stealing coins from people or trick them to buy scam coins)
Bubble in a bubble in a bubble (BTC - ETH - ICOs all fueled each other. First Bitcoin created interest in Ethereum, which then created interest for ICOs, which held Ethereum, which went up and then people took profit into Bitcoin - Essentially a leveraged bubble!)
ETH. FIAT and Stablecoin pairs (Bitcoin's price is partially affected by people using it for speculation. Bitcoin also drives this market. So when it is used less / has lower price, shitcoins deflate too! Also arbitrage sucks money out, as there are too many pairs / exchanges, so liquidity is fractured)
Dummer money got in (Like Crypto Cobain said, the IQ of people getting in after each bubble is lower... Why? Because back then it was harder to get into Bitcoin. People had to be more technical and educated to understand it).
Mt. Gox coins being sold in the market (Mt. Gox 'locked' coins started hitting the market, something that didn't happen in 2014-2015)
Back then the market cap was much smaller and there way more lost coins as a percentage (also GBTC had just launched and its 'locked coins' were a big percentage of the total amount)
Stablecoin wars (fractured liquidity and people selling 1$ for less - Millions lost by retail that was gained by malicious players)
Hash wars (Bcash split - liquidity crunch as well as Bitcoin being dumped for hash power)
Finally in 2013 there was an 80% correction. So the 13 to 1200 rally wasn't done in one go. It took a big break before the last big rally.
What makes the 2018-2019 bubble more bullish:
No Mt. Gox collapse - No Willy (the rally was legit, I don't buy the : Bitfinex printed Tether out of thin air FUD). So the rally was organic and real, without having a big exchange collapse.
More Liquidity and on ramps (many good, regulated and unregulated exchanges, along with many other ways to buy Bitcoin like ATMs, vouchers, etc)
Improved custody and security (Hardware wallets, custodial solutions like Gemini, Coinbase, BitGo and Casa Hodl)
Many OTC desks and Indices (Easier to buy/sell big amounts of coins without affecting the spot market a lot)
Big boyz getting in (Bakkt, ErisX and even the probability of an ETF being approved)
Crypto funds (back then there weren't many, if any approved crypto funds. Most got approved in 2017-2018-2019)
Regulatory clarity (in 2014 there was a lot of fear Bitcoin could be banned etc. Now it is legal and clearly defined in many countries like the US, EU, Japan and South Korea)
Better mining (More efficient mining, along with liquid options to hedge, more decentralized and with bigger-long term players getting in)
Less inflation (Most big coins like Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum have smaller inflation rates than they had back then)
Financial products (Bitmex, Cryptofacilities/Kraken, Huobi, Bitflyer, OKex, Deribit and LedgerX offer liquid futures and options products)
True believers own more (The hodlers, the hodlers of last resort, the ones that truly believe in this game, who are now more certain than they were back then - forks also helped true Bitcoiners to increase their Bitcoin holdings by holding Bitcoin!)
25-30B got into ICOs (Just the shitcoin market alone bottomed at 40B, out of which 2.5B was in stablecoins. Some of it has gotten back into Bitcoin or shitcoins)
More talent and money (People that work in this industry probably reinvest some of their gains back into the market)
Way more good educational material (Back then our understanding was not as great and good information wasn't easy to find)
Shitcoins provide a lot of free marketing and education to Bitcoin by proxy, as well as provide Bitcoin with a clear use case - Shitcoin speculation!
Crypto borrowing - Use Bitcoin/Shitcoins as collateral to get fiat, without having to sell your coins!
Crypto lending - Earn money by lending your coins/fiat for people to trade with it (Bitfinex, Poloniex, Liquid)
Bitcoin/Shitcoin Utility - Joinmarket, Lightning, Maker DAO, Masternodes, Staking (Holding crypto to make more... Crypto by providing specific services, essentially restricting the supply) - I truly believe that Staking (DPoS, PoS, Masternodes etc will drive the next bubble really high. Projects like Loom, Maker, Edgeless, Augur, Dash, Ren etc make me believe that there is a lot people that will get in because of this.
Decentralised trading tools for traders (Bisq, Liquid, Ren, DEXs, Stablecoins)
Even more lost coins, Bitmex insurance fund growing and ICOs still holding ETH (lol-lol-lol)
Central banks have take risk away from the markets, by lowering rates and printing a lot of money. But this has also lowered the returns investors expect... Which makes many investors turn into more risky investments. Why risk 100% of your capital for 5-10% returns on junk bonds, and not risk 100% for 1000-10000% by just doubling/tripling your risk? More QE is coming and the total money supply has significantly expanded since early 2015.
Bitcoin Next All Time High, Nov 2021 (?)Todays education is proudly brought to you by BestThingSinceSlicedSatoshi, the FREE and very profitable Buy and Sell indicator. Add it to your favorites at the link below.
Analysis based on my ACCURATE buy and sell indicator on the Bitcoin Monthly chart, Heikin Ashi candles.
My script (Blue line) = Buy when it crosses zero from beneath, sell when it crosses zero from above.
Looking at the blue line, we see the last bottom in 2015. In Jan 2019, we hit the same value (approx) - could that be bottom ? Maybe. If it is, and price action is a mirror reflection of what it was from 2015, then we can expect to see the next ATH Nov 2021. Between now and then, ACCUMULATE.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Feel free to not believe a thing and do your own homework.
Sincerely,
BestThingSinceSlicedSatoshi.
Pity they don't make Satoshi bread anymore.
How I Trade BitcoinHi Traders,
Very rarely do i educate on public platforms, however i feel that this information will be hugely valuable to the wider trading community and help those who struggle to identify a trading zone.
Building a tick list of requirements prior to a trade not only provides you a higher probability of long term success, but also reduces impulsive and emotional behaviour.
In my opinion there is a huge misconception that 1 indicator is enough to become a consistently profitable trader, i feel building an area where price is likely to reverse based on multiple confluence factors will give you the 'edge' over the market that is required.
Be sure to swipe left to view all 8 trading opportunities.
Thank you for your continued support.
DISCLAIMER:
I am only providing my own trading information and basic techniques for your benefit and insight, you should apply your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal / strategy.
The Complete Trend Line History of Bitcoin: 2013-2018Just experimenting plotting trend lines using line charts. Starting from 2013 I will update following up to 2018.
Personally, I like this method because it removes the details that candles provide and gives you a straight-forward way to determine important highs and lows.
Let me know what you guys think.
-Wellwastedyouth
The Double Bottom Reversal is a bullish reversal pattern!The Double Bottom Reversal is a bullish reversal pattern typically found on bar charts, line charts, and candlestick charts. As its name implies, the pattern is made up of two consecutive troughs that are roughly equal, with a moderate peak in-between.
Although there can be variations, the classic Double Bottom Reversal usually marks an intermediate or long-term change in trend. Many potential Double Bottom Reversals can form along the way down, but until key resistance is broken, a reversal cannot be confirmed. To help clarify, we will look at the key points in the formation and then walk through an example.
Prior Trend: With any reversal pattern, there must be an existing trend to reverse. In the case of the Double Bottom Reversal, a significant downtrend of several months should be in place.
First Trough: The first trough should mark the lowest point of the current trend. As such, the first trough is fairly normal in appearance and the downtrend remains firmly in place.
Peak: After the first trough, an advance takes place that typically ranges from 10 to 20%. Volume on the advance from the first trough is usually inconsequential, but an increase could signal early accumulation. The high of the peak is sometimes rounded or drawn out a bit from the hesitation to go back down. This hesitation indicates that demand is increasing, but still not strong enough for a breakout.
Second Trough: The decline off of the reaction high usually occurs with low volume and meets support from the previous low. Support from the previous low should be expected. Even after establishing support, only the possibility of a Double Bottom Reversal exists, and it still needs to be confirmed. The time period between troughs can vary from a few weeks to many months, with the norm being 1-3 months. While exact troughs are preferable, there is some room to maneuver and usually, a trough within 3% of the previous is considered valid.
Advance from Trough: Volume is more important for the Double Bottom Reversal than the double top . There should clear evidence that volume and buying pressure are accelerating during the advance off of the second trough. An accelerated ascent, perhaps marked with a gap or two, also indicates a potential change in sentiment.
Resistance Break: Even after trading up to resistance, the double top and trend reversal are still not complete. Breaking resistance from the highest point between the troughs completes the Double Bottom Reversal. This too should occur with an increase in volume and/or an accelerated ascent.
Resistance Turned Support: Broken resistance becomes potential support and there is sometimes a test of this newfound support level with the first correction. Such a test can offer a second chance to close a short position or initiate a long.
Price Target: The distance from the resistance breakout to trough lows can be added on top of the resistance break to estimate a target. This would imply that the bigger the formation is, the larger the potential advance.
It is important to remember that the Double Bottom Reversal is an intermediate to long-term reversal pattern that will not form in a few days. Even though formation in a few weeks is possible, it is preferable to have at least 4 weeks between lows. Bottoms usually take longer than tops to form and patience can often be a virtue. Give the pattern time to develop and look for the proper clues. The advance off of the first trough should be 10-20%. The second trough should form a low within 3% of the previous low and volume on the ensuing advance should increase. Volume indicators such as Chaikin Money Flow , OBV and Accumulation/Distribution can be used to look for signs of buying pressure. Just as with the double top , it is paramount to wait for the resistance breakout. The formation is not complete until the previous reaction high is taken out.
[BITCOIN, LITECOIN, & ETHERIUM] HEALTH CHECK UP! This educational video talks about the health of overall general crypto market cap and how have seen it go lower since last time I checked it. Crypto is very volatile, but has nice returns if you know what your doing! If your new to this space and intend on scalping, swing trading or hold a position on long term investor trading. Be prepared for a volatile roller coaster ride! I don't regret anything i have personally have done in this space yet. Its been exciting ever since I started in 2017 and their is so much to learn. This blockchain technology is the future!
If you enjoyed this video give me a like and follow me to hear my latest technical analysis on what Im trading.
Thanks
CryptoBuzzAnalyst
PS. This is not financial advice just educational material. Do your own research and take caution before u think about day trading or investing in crypto!
BTC/USD - Why Traders Lose In Trading Part 2 -Hello Traders,
As you guys liked the previous educational part so much we decided to continue with that topic.
In picture 1, you can see the interdependence between fear and greed! These characteristics harm us to make good trading decisions and stay calm!
This fact is purely based on behaviour finance! This matter of fact is not only within the trader, it more lays in the market and we need to understand it. Only then we will understand the fact that emotions can control us in negative ways!
Therefore, it is so important to understand picture 2! Only then, we can act in any market situation calm and without any negative emotions! Whereas most of the people simply follow the path of the doom loop described in the graphic above, we need to think like first like a professional!
This knowledge will give us a huge advantage! We want to show you the market behaviour. With this knowledge, we then can implement it in our trading! The lack of risk and money management hinder the trader to ever be successful. The mistake you make is simple. You have the wrong mindset. Either you act greedy or fearful. This basically leads us to the next point: Your way of thinking is too short term!
You concentrate just on your current losses and wins without looking at the whole! You want profits NOW! Not later! This is one of the most emotional problems which you face!
You need to think long-term! Not looking at one trade! You need to judge your trading system over time and not after every single trade. However, most of the people do this! They question themselves if the trading strategy or approach they use is profitable! Of course, you need the right knowledge to build a profitable strategy. But to this later.
Basically, they end up falling in the doom loop again because they get too emotional with every single trade! More they hope on every loser to become a winner and cut every winner in the fear to become a loser!
The emotional behaviour is often caused by two factors:
• Wrong trading approach
• Short term thinking due to impatience
These two factors causing tremendous effects on your emotions!
Now let us explain why. When a trader starts, as you might refer this to yourself as well, we dream to become profitable day trader right! Why? – Because the profits you can make within ONE day are huge, right? This attracts us! We want fast and huge profits! However, after you started with day trading you fast recognize that it will cause more mischief within yourself than it brings the expected good things! Let us take a minute here and explain a fact, which most of you out there probably underestimate or not even think about. What is day trading? – Well, we will skip all the basic knowledge about day trading and concentrate right at the beginning on the interesting facts. The problem with day trading itself lays in the basics. You need to understand the mechanism of day trading. As you already know, you will always trade against someone else. Or in other words, if you are holding a buy EUR/USD position, someone else will hold the exact counter position. So, a sell EUR/USD.
This makes the whole story interesting because you will always have a competition! And as a trader you need to think smart who is your counterparty and what information they have. Only then you can measure if you have any chance or not in the long term! So, let us compare the different trading styles in picture 3.
We trade against computer based algorithms! This makes the story way different now! We need to understand that the execution time and the reaction is way faster than we can even imagine.
Additionally, emotions are also not present due to the use of computers. Now there is not only the emotions we have against us, but also the fact of the executions.
If you want to become successful, you first need to control your emotions and trade disciplined your trading system. However on a time horizon this thing makes the story very difficult.
Don't Let Hope Get the Best of YouAbove I have listed the multiple stages of a trade.
A lot of the time it starts with a great buy, which leads to a logical selling point.
Rarely do people go through with this.
Why? because humans are full of emotion, which a lot of the time will get the best of us.
Even though that sell order should be placed, GREED takes over. We hold on just a while longer wanting to make that extra buck.
Then the worst happens, the chart reverses. We then hit the DENIAL stage, where we refuse to believe this is happening, we think that Technical Analysis has failed us and the price will somehow come back.
Eventually we hit a bit of support! This is the HOPE stage, where we hope that somehow the price will rise high enough just for us to break even.
This all eventually leads to the final stage of REGRET. Also known of the land of no recovery.
Do not let emotions get the best of you. Emotions are never a reliable way to predict price movements.
Emotion is something that we all must overcome, if we wish to succeed in the trading industry.
Above, REGRET sets at $4150.
This could be an excellent short opportunity for BTC.
After just about hitting a triple-top, the BTC rise was rejected, which was immediately followed by a break in the most recent trendline.
IF hope prevails we will likely retest the previous high.
IF hope fails we will likely hit our REGRET target of $4150 which rests on a previous trendline.
Always know that shorting in a BULL market is risky. I advise using caution.
If you are not a margin trader, $4100-$200 could be an excellent buy for you.
Wish you all luck!
Bitcoin: The End of an EraThe dumps are coming.
Bitcoin has only one thing left going for it: the halving on July 16, 2016. Post-halving, there is nothing holding the dumps back.
Coinbase, the most bullish bitcoin company to ever exist, is now betting that Ether will overtake Bitcoin in the near future. medium.com
I am SHORT on Whaleclub: whaleclub.co
My past trades:
LONG 415.54 whaleclub.co
LONG 391.41 whaleclub.co
LONG 360.64 whaleclub.co