With equities looking increasingly volatility and valuations as frothy as ever, long term bonds have been quietly outperforming recently. I expect this trend to continue for foreseeable future and for us to rise 5-13% from here conservatively.
The global climate is shifting to reducing risk and buying safe haven assets. Therefore, 20 year bonds will likely...
With the markets pricing in a 95% chance of a 25bps to 50bps rate cut, longing 20 year bonds seems like one of the highest confidence trades in the market.
I am bullish on 20 year bonds specifically, and will continue to be until we see a rate hike which I believe is far, far away. We are likely heading into a global recession within the next 12-18 months, so I...
Many equity charts look similar. Amazing how gains from October.3rd/2019- February 20th/2020 got erased in 6 days.
We are now in a downtrend, and we should expect a lower high to be made. I am looking for this swing as long as we remain below the break out zone indicated by the arrow at the 3230 zone. Have some fib targets to watch out for where I will await and...
The past two times we saw the 3-month vs 10-year treasury yields invert and the Federal Reserve make drastic cuts to the Federal Funds Rate were during the 2000 dot.com bust and the 2008 financial crisis. Each were accompanied by significant stock market declines/crashes.
Today we have the 3-month and 10-year yields inverted(two inversions in less than a year)...
FOLKS, EVERYONE, WELL MOST, POSTED NEGATIVE COMMENTS WHEN WE SAID GOLD WAS A BUBBLE RUNNING ON HYPE, FEAR, PANIC AND MOST OF ALL, "FAKE NEWS"
WELL...GOLD DROPPED LIKE A ROCK FROM ITS HIGH TODAY LIKE WE SAID WAS GOING TO HAPPEN
WE MADE ALMOST $20 FROM TODAY'S HIGH SHORTING GOLD WHEN IT HIT $1688.66..!!!
AFTER HOURS ITS STILL SINKING AND VERY ACTIVE AS TRADERS...
Yet another “lead” indicator of the historical rally in equities. A good heads up to the real underlying trend.
The TLT ETF just broke out in multiple time frames, weekly & daily.
Heading to the top of channel just like in early 2016!
Safety in the bond market is at the very short end (as short rates rise, can reinvest at higher rates) and the very long end (rates should decline as economic news deteriorates due to stalled Chinese economy). Most risk is in the 10 year range.
SPX Year-ahead forward consensus expected earnings divided by average of Moody’s Aaa and Baa bond yields comparison with SPX index, SPX based on this metric is at present time not expensive, but relatively cheap.
www.RefiwithJustin.com if you own a home in Colorado or Texas!
Monthly view of the 10 year yield here.
Yield touched current levels in 2012 in anticipation of QE3.
Again in June 2016 over Brexit.
3rd time in August/September of trade war.
4th - Coronavirus? I would bet this is this what initiates the break down.
10 yr around 1% or lower coming soon?
Pre-Market announcement of US$100M Short-Term Convertible.
Unfortunately, this confirms the assumptions I made in my latest video on my YT channel "DONGXii"
> NIO is cash strapped and not able to close a big financing round.
> 1B funding rumours with GAC will not materialise (for now).
> Strategy is to finance operations through creating cash flow by selling...
Actually we are in a KL so we need acumulation before nothing, after this acumulation, the value has done the point 3 of the uptrend and it's already retested, the third confluence to buy is Fibonacci that gives us the information that the value needs to go up, so we can say that XAUUSD WILL RISE it's value.