I think we have a low risk trade here, buying bonds until March 17th or so. Weekly trend is up, until said date, and could after that form a new consolidation and new continuation pattern over time if my view here is correct. Definitely a good idea to have some exposure to bonds, I personally opted for buying OTM calls to ride this signal, but you could use...
The US10Y hit today, in the aftermath of the 6.5% U.S. CPI, the Higher Lows (HL) Support line that has been in effect for 9 months (started on March 7th 2022). With 1D technicals bearish but not heavily (RSI = 42.655, MACD = -0.035, ADX = 36.284), the trend is undecided at the moment, at least on the short-term. Though we see a clear Channel Down since the...
In this video I cover the divergence between the 2 and 10 year treasuries and the recent FOMC press conference language. Jerome Powell is promising one thing (continued rate increases), while the bond market seems to be claiming otherwise (Fed pause incoming). Who's right? Let's take a closer look.
In 2022 the diversification between stocks and bonds within a "60/40" portfolio was an ineffective strategy that yielded negative returns and, as a result, did not safeguard the investment. The reason was that both equities and bonds plummeted in lockstep as a result of the Federal Reserve's interest rate rises, with the correlation reaching its highest level in...
In recent weeks, the bond market has been sending a strong signal to the Federal Reserve: it may be making a serious mistake. The yield curve, which measures the difference in interest rates between short-term and long-term bonds, is currently more inverted than it has been since the early 1980s. An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term interest rates are...
UK 5 YEAR GOVT BONDS YIELD The chart above shows a potential trade for this asset; it is currently bearish following the recent surge that started around the beginning of August 2022. Heed your DD!
EUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔽 Amidst domestic financial turbulences, the Bank of England announced an emergency program to purchase UK government bonds - which will end on Friday. The decision was made public earlier by the central bank’s governor, a sudden spike in the Claimant Count Change readings to 25,500 was also detrimental to the...
US 30-Year Government Bonds Yield in full flight, breaking 2018 highs. Major support at 3.80 A complete five-wave pattern could land bond prices at 4.85-5.11
EUR/USD ▶️ GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD ▶️ USD/CAD 🔽 XAU ▶️ WTI ▶️ As the US bond yield curve remains inverted, bond yields are fueled by the imminent interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve, the 10-year Treasury yield reached 3.514%, and the 2-year bond yield went higher to 3.934%. Although the stock market did slightly recover from yesterday’s losses, the forex...
Traders & Investors, US 10 Year Bonds have been on the rise. After a minor correction they rose higher but now they could be approaching an FCP zone which can act as a resistance. We also have Relative Strength Index divergence setting up on weekly time frame. Out this on your watch list as this can impact stock market, indices and other asset classes due to...
German Bund yields ( DE10Y ) are in the midst of a secular trend reversal after the breakout of both the 200-month moving average and a 40-year descending trend line. Yields on the 10-year Bund have never gone over the 200-mma mark before. The next barrier is the psychological threshold of 2%, which coincides with the September 2013 highs and 23.6% of the...
Hello everybody! I wanted to make a quick update on where I think the 10y and 30y bonds will be headed in the next few months, as in the past, I've been talking quite a bit about deflation and a recession being close. We have seen TLT rise significantly, yet I think there is more upside. In the short term, I can see a further pullback, but in my honest opinion,...
10yr keep an eye Got a H&S formation, keep an eye if we break down further there are key support areas IF this continues further. However, we are at key support and don't forget month end. Have a great weekend 🎉 TJ
I'm looking at US10Y on monthly scale , If we see weekly candle close with doji more probably US10Y will be rejects at this level and it' will retest previous horizontal support and diagonal trendline as mentioned on the chart.
As you can see on the main chart, 10y bond yields have broken above their downwards channel and are now back at their 2013-2018 highs. Based on technical analysis we don't have a confirmation that the trend has fully reversed until we get a close above 3.2%, but we are pretty close to breaking above that level too. Now we aren't only seeing the 10y yields rise, as...
In this video we discuss the current macro economic problems facing the Bond market and anticipate that regardless of what happens we will see dislocations (volatility) in a number of different markets. The problems with Japan stems from their monetary policy to implement Yield Curve Control (YCC) where they are committed to keeping their interest rates between...
Not much to say here. In my honest opinion, Bonds are on watch. We could very clearly see an inversion here. Especially if the Fed raises rate or even enters QT.
Cup and handle about to complete and looking bullish.