In 2022, the stock market took a hit and the US Dollar gained strength due to higher yields in the US. Toward the end of that year, as yields eased off, the US Dollar lost some of its power, and this coincided with a rebound in stock market performance. Now, as yields are climbing once again, the US Dollar is regaining strength, but it seems like stocks are...
There is a Bearish Bat with Bearish Divergence on the TLT, which could perhaps be signaling that the 20-year Bond Auction is going to demand higher yield than the current level.
Analysis of yesterday's CME options market transactions shows that the market participants are positive about the prospects of the long bonds, betting on its growth to $111.5 within 20-30 days.
The US CPI came down more than expected yesterday at 3.2% y/y, and as a result the USD fell sharply with US yeilds, while stocks and metals are on the rise. For now, this seems to be a very important data as it causes also a very important breakdown on USD index and US yeilds. Looking at the US yeilds, we have five waves down, so it means that top is in place,...
Quick update on some calls that we made not long ago. Keep in mind that many were bullish on yields at the time. We stated that TVC:DXY was topping. We also believed that #yields topped, especially longer term. What has happened since then? US #dollar cratering. TVC:TNX , 10 Yr, 2YR & shorter frames are also rolling over. Last night we stated that #stocks...
Another reason to get involved in options research analysis. Yesterday and last Friday, 10-year bonds options contracts on the CME were found which have a predictive component in the form of sharp price movement in any direction. Today's 10-Year Bonds chart has fully realized this sentiment, allowing the most informed participants to capitalize well. And did you...
The NASDAQ:TLT , or the 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF, appears to be undergoing a significant shift in its trend dynamics based on your description. Here's a breakdown of what you're observing: 1. **Bearish to Bullish Reversal**: This indicates that the ETF, which was previously in a downtrend (bearish phase), is showing signs of reversing to an uptrend (bullish...
As we had a massive push up by buyers last week, now we are in zone that we need to have more cautious. buyers were trapped there before, and we expect a little rotation to lower levels and then a decision to where we are going. Attention for ES and RTY wich are relentless to the resistance zone now. VIX very low, and expectation is to increase a...
NASDAQ:TLT chart mapping/analysis. Note: TradingView chart dividend adjusted. Price action bouncing off Golden Pocket (66% Fib) support Heavy trading volume = institutional activity (ie positioning?) Rejection wicks on previous weekly candles = selling pressure still present (correlation with long-end yields holding strength) Looking for re-test of...
TVC:US10Y intraday mapping/analysis. US yields dip while bonds & stocks rip. US10Y in clear downtrend with potential bearish H&S pattern developing, TBC. H&S development would correlate with bonds/stocks pullback before further bullish momentum into EOY. Left shoulder, head & neckline outlined. Right shoulder parameters: Rally above ascending 1st...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is having the first red month (1M) after rising non-stop since May. It has been on extremely overbought levels for the last 12 months as the price established itself above the multi-decade Bearish Megaphone pattern, the same way it was oversold below it following the March 2020 COVID crash. As you know the price quickly...
TVC:US10Y chart mapping/analysis. US10Y getting dumped off combination FOMC decision, US economic data + US Treasuries update triggering institutional short covering. Bond & equities market squeezed higher, in-line with seasonality. Possible bearish H&S in development on lower timeframe, pending pattern confirmation.
Ever since 2008, the world shifted more to the world of collateral and distrust, after the world of unsecured collapsed. Treasuries are dollars are in the future. As long as uncertainty remains high (or increases) there will be a place for government loans. Treasuries yielding near 5% on most maturities is "good enough" when compared to the historical 7% ish...
The spread between the US10Y and JP10Y has historically been a great leading indicator of contraction within the Yen Carry Trade and likely will be into the future. If we were to apply TA to it, we can see that the spread appears to be Double Topping and has formed a Bearish Shark at this top as the RSI breaks down and the MACD Diverges. If we are to take this as...
GOOD MORNING! Didn't have time to post yesterday. Busy the entire day until I got home @ 9pm!\ 10 Yr #yield topped the day the original tweet was posted. 30 Yr yield topped the following day! #stocks #bonds TVC:TNX (See profile for more info)
Ackman Bond Short. 4% to 5% Don't Overthink it ...addanfdakkfdandfaskpnpdfinpndpankniafnpadsnpfeanpfksadnpkfndpafnpdsppdknsnfdsdfna fpdpmjafsdoko [kads[kp faofadpomfoodsaomp
This is not something I would use as a trading signal by itself, but it is a good indicator on the weekly chart of how bigger players are viewing risk appetite. High yield corporate bonds, as seen reflected in ETFs like AMEX:HYG and AMEX:JNK , are an interest data point. High yield implies that these are riskier bonds with a higher chance of default on the...