Hello Traders,
There is a big potential bearish opportunity in the ZB market! The 15-minute time frame just showed a break in a key support level, indicating a potential downtrend. With this technical signal, combined with current market conditions, it's possible that we may see a further decline in the ZB price. Keep an eye on this market and follow me for more...
It is only 11 days ago when we called for an immediate drop on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) as it was at the top of both its long-term Channel Down as well as the top of the Diverging Channel Up:
The Channel Up now broke to the downside as the US10Y not only hit our 3.550% Target but closed even below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with the...
The U.S. Government Bonds 2 YR Yield (US02Y) is testing its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since May 31 2021. The 1W RSI is on the very same Lower Highs trend-line rejection that it was during the December 17 2018 1W MA50 test!
Needless to say this shows that the price is on a critical point as when it broke in Dec 2018, a downtrend followed that...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern ever since the October 21 2022 High and even though there might be a Diverging Channel Up (dashed lines) emerging, the current level makes a strong Resistance cluster.
With the 1D RSI also rejected twice on its Higher Highs trend-line, we are turning bearish on the US10Y...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern ever since the October 21 2022 High and even though there might be a Diverging Channel Up (dashed lines) emerging, the current levels and the fact that it has failed to break higher in the last five 1D candles, make it a strong Resistance cluster.
With the 1D RSI also on...
To all the perma bulls out there, look at bonds, there won't be any pivot till higher interest rates at or above 6%.
Bonds risk-off is the most important out there, as the bond market is much bigger than the stock/indexes market.
Something will have to give, either bonds or the markets...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is on a 3 day rebound following a hit on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is the natural Resistance, but if crossed, we can expect a long-term peak at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down pattern that started on the October 21 High.
A closing below the 1D MA200 first,...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has gone a long way since our top prediction two months ago and the update 5 days ago (4H time-frame):
Now back to the 1D time-frame, the price has started rising since the December 07 Low, exactly at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up, around the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). So far...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield ( US10Y ) has gone a long way since our top prediction two months ago and the update 20 days ago (4H time-frame):
Now back to the 1D time-frame, the price is exactly at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up, below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is where the last bottom was priced. The...
The US02Y has just completed a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, which is a technical formation found on tops. The very same formation was last seen in October - December 2018 and caused a massive long-term drop on the US02Y. Check also the identical 1D RSI sequences leading to the top with Channel Down patterns.
The US02Y peak was translated into a fall on...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) confirmed our huge Bearish Divergence spotted on our October 25 analysis and started the first pull-back since July:
The price is now below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since August 19 and today is testing it as a Resistance. A double candle close above the 1D MA50, restores the bullish trend...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield formed Lower Highs on its 1D RSI while the price action has been trading on Higher Highs. This is a major Bearish Divergence that technically calls for a price reversal to the downside.
What's even more interesting is that every time the same RSI Bearish Divergence has been formed in the past 12 months, the US10Y always...
This is the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) on a 2 year horizon. As you see its aggressive rise can fit only on a Fibonacci Channel. The recent pull-back happened after the price hit the 2.5 Fibonacci extension and the 1D RSI a largely overbought level and the price is already on the 2.0 Fib.
As you see, the strongest buys throughout this period have...
This is a critical update on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) as it has formed a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern. This is a technically bearish formation that we typically see on market tops with a reversal following. It gets even stronger considering the fact that the Head of the formation hit (and got rejected on) the Higher Highs (top) trend-line...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) has been on a pull-back in the past 2 weeks and is close to testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again. This held last time upon contact on May 26 and constitutes the first Support. We may have a Channel Up pattern in formation and the 1D MA50 sits almost exactly on its Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line. A 1D candle...
I'm looking at US10Y on monthly scale , If we see weekly candle close with doji more probably US10Y will be rejects at this level and it' will retest previous horizontal support and diagonal trendline as mentioned on the chart.
TVC:US10Y I'm just looking at the 10Y U.S bond yield to try and better pinpoint the overall macro conditions to expect for the equity market this year.
Based on my technical analysis, 10YUS yield is currently trading in an Elliot Wave 5 wave ABCDE pattern, it's inside a triangle that seems to also be the extension of a cup and handle bullish formation. The (D)...
I haven't updated my 10Y Bond Yield outlook in almost a month, ever since calling the top and the potential of a bearish reversal:
The top successfully took place and the rejection gave way to the reversal on which the price has been trading until now. The similarities with the March - May formation remain and have even become stronger. As you see there is a...
