The chart below shows the yield spread between the 10yr and 3mo and 10yr and 2yr. When the spread is below 0 (colored in red), the yield curve is inverted. This has been an indicator for coming recessions. The red areas on the SPX are the recession periods.
As you can see we saw an inversion last month (march). The next recession is just around the corner and...
China Q4 GDP Growth is expected to be at the slowest pace since 2009 at 6,4% YoY. This will probably also drag AUD down because of the high export to China. Meanwhile the Australian rate will be unchanged for quite a bit, where the Housing market index is also due to fall over the curs of 2019. Australian Housing market have been rallying for long time, Now the...
Looking at the 30 years. There seems to be a lot of movement on the bond market that the financial media has been totally ignoring!
The bond yields reached a high of 3.46 November 2 2018!
These heights were broken when the price broke and Closed below the 3.4 level
The current yield is showing an uptrend. The uptrend is an extension of the Fibonacci area.
10/2 year US bond yield ratio is once again approaching 1 and we have already had inversion between the 5/3 yield ratio. Is generally an early indicator of recession.
S&P500 is once again showing volatility after a very extended bull run.
Next major financial collapse is now simply a matter of time.
This may not look like something to watch and you may not know about it. Only about 2% of investors understand it, however 98% of institutional traders (the “smart money”) watch it like the World Cup finals. Its the 10 year treasury yield to the 2 Year treasury yield ratio/spread.
Bottomline: If it goes negative (hits the dotted yellow line) =...
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
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Bond yields showed support at 3.116%. This MAY be the end of the plunge in stocks because of the slowdown in the yields' move, but the view is still short term bearish.
(The low didn't form yet, watched closely, but if it forms like I presume, then the divergence occurs with SMI idicator)
If US 10 year breaches 3% resistance,
Katy bar the door ! I believe this
is a key technical level that may
trigger a larger sell off in the bond
markets. Remember that as the bonds
sell off the yield ( interest rate ) rise's .
As of right now the yield on a 30 year bond
is @ 3.14% and a 10 year is @ 2.96% !
So if you were buying bonds why would you
loan .gov the...
I've exited my neutral options spread on $TLT today for decent gains as price retreated back to the center of it.
I am now looking for the potential to add back into a directional position on $IEF (better cost basis then $TLH or $TLT) through common shares if we get a bounce at the 23.6% fibonacci level. Stop will be announced in the updates...