Hello everyone
I was doing a research about market crashes in history (what was the reason, what happened next and how it was solved) ...So I read many titles about financial instruments in US (Loans,credit cards,mortgages etc) ...yeah and those freaking BONDS...we have two types of bonds - short-term and long-term..and here comes the trouble. They should go in...
I know everyone is screaming about Interest Rates, but thought this would bring some renewed perspective.
Here is a chart of the 10 year Bond Yield dating back to the 1980s
Whenever this chart crosses 0 it means the yield curve for the 2 and 10 year bond yields has inverted. Historically a significant economic downturn followed. It's not perfect but nonetheless I wanted to put this out there for feedback.
Thanks
The Euro is now highly likely to catch a strong bid against the Yen after the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the Central Bank is likely to start raising interest rates in July and exit sub-zero territory by the end of September 2022.
Interest rate differentials on Government Bonds will support the EURO higher.
In this video I breakdown...
The US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield, broke last month above a historic Lower Highs trend-line that has been holding since September 1981. This chart is on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. By doing so, it also broke above the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in history as well.
Even though it hasn't broken above the previous Lower High of November 2018,...
Here is a chart of the 2yr / 5yr /10yr / & 30yr yields
The BLUE LINE represents the highest yields from 2018
The WHITE LINE represents the highest yields from 20202
From 0.39% to 3.20%, bond yields made their largest climb in history. This kind of move and at these levels, bond yields are also tightening financial conditions. Bond yields have also circumvented some of the inflationary pressures. However, they must come down to stimulate growth and prevent an ugly recession.
The Australian Dollar has weakened in recent weeks due to Iron Ore prices declining as China's zero covid policy has caused investors to fear a slowdown in the world's second-biggest economy.
Australia exports 80% of Iron ore to China, so any slowdown in China will hit demand for Australia's commodity exports and put downward pressure on the currency.
We also...
We have seen this movie before. High yield bonds work as a good proxy for risk-appetite in the market. Using a simple trend filter, we see clear warning signs developing. Question is - how far will this go?
The 10-year Treasury is an economic indicator. Its yield provides information about investor confidence. While historical yield ranges do not appear wide, any basis point movement is a signal to the market.
9/10 bond yields move with economic growth. If inflation is out of control, which it is, it can take 12-24 months for bond yields to come down. It's been well over a year of slowing economic growth (manufacturing PMI growth) and bond yields are approaching a 9-year resistance level around 3% - 3.25%. Is this a bearish divergence for yields or decoupling of...
Since my last video, CAD/JPY, has pushed above ¥100.00 on the exchange rate.
We now have the Bank of Canada talking about the possibility of 0.75% rate hikes, as inflation hit 6.70% this week, far above economists forecast for a rise to 6.10%.
The Bank of Japan maintains its stance to use yield curve control to keep interest rates low, sighting low inflation...
Simplicity is king.
1) Rising wedge 2019 - 2022 - Jan 2022 breakout down.
2) Nasdaq is falling from a crazy over-priced high, big potential downside.
3) Descending trend-line of lower highs since breakout confirm down-trend.
4) Current trading range of the down-trend is 14,600 - 12,800
5) Break below 12,800 - 11,900 to 10,700 will very likely follow.
6)...
Jerome Powell, chairman of the FED yesterday basically confirmed a May rate hike.
But ask yourself seriously - Is inflation going to go away due to this? Will this save a bleeding economy?
Gold practically called the bluff on FED's comments AND the rising bond yields.
As you can see, post FED meeting we have the Gold keep the support trend-line since the start...
As you can see on the main chart, 10y bond yields have broken above their downwards channel and are now back at their 2013-2018 highs. Based on technical analysis we don't have a confirmation that the trend has fully reversed until we get a close above 3.2%, but we are pretty close to breaking above that level too. Now we aren't only seeing the 10y yields rise, as...
The Canadian Dollar continues to strengthen against the Japanese Yen as the Bank of Canada continues to aggressively raise Interest rates to fight off high inflation.
Japan's domestic inflation is in stark contrast as Japan continues to struggle to hit the Bank of Japan's 2.00% target.
I show the historical difference in interest rates on 10Year Government bonds...
NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL1!) rebounded from the support level of $95. Based on CA10Y (Canada's 10 Year Government Bond Yield) as a leading indicator, CL1! has the potential to rise to $115 or even higher.
