VIX: Volatility Index-Extension to the US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis Series - 17th of August 2019 (9 Minute Read)
As it can be observed from the chart, this is an extremely complex(Premium) volatility analysis. The purpose of this chart is to evaluate the probability and the timing of the next recession in the short to medium term.
Now, let's breakdown...
Looks like a big reversal is in store after volume peaks out at resistance and Year Camarilla R4. $TLT $IEF $VXX $SPY $GLD $SLV $GDX $EURUSD $ZB_F $ZN_F
This is an inter-market analysis of the gold market. This analysis contains just fundamental view that shall give investors and traders another perspective toward the gold market's sentiment. This is not a technical analysis nor a buy/sell signal.
Since the beginning of May 2019, we have witnessed a correction in U.S Stock Market. For some trading days, we have...
The chart below shows the yield spread between the 10yr and 3mo and 10yr and 2yr. When the spread is below 0 (colored in red), the yield curve is inverted. This has been an indicator for coming recessions. The red areas on the SPX are the recession periods.
As you can see we saw an inversion last month (march). The next recession is just around the corner and...
China Q4 GDP Growth is expected to be at the slowest pace since 2009 at 6,4% YoY. This will probably also drag AUD down because of the high export to China. Meanwhile the Australian rate will be unchanged for quite a bit, where the Housing market index is also due to fall over the curs of 2019. Australian Housing market have been rallying for long time, Now the...
Looking at the 30 years. There seems to be a lot of movement on the bond market that the financial media has been totally ignoring!
The bond yields reached a high of 3.46 November 2 2018!
These heights were broken when the price broke and Closed below the 3.4 level
The current yield is showing an uptrend. The uptrend is an extension of the Fibonacci area.
when Real yields negative mean HOLD Cash will guarantee Loss, so Fund flow will move to risk asset like Equity.
Gold actually is not risk asset but still effect from this event.
10/2 year US bond yield ratio is once again approaching 1 and we have already had inversion between the 5/3 yield ratio. Is generally an early indicator of recession.
S&P500 is once again showing volatility after a very extended bull run.
Next major financial collapse is now simply a matter of time.
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This may not look like something to watch and you may not know about it. Only about 2% of investors understand it, however 98% of institutional traders (the “smart money”) watch it like the World Cup finals. Its the 10 year treasury yield to the 2 Year treasury yield ratio/spread.
Bottomline: If it goes negative (hits the dotted yellow line) =...
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
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Phil
Bond yields showed support at 3.116%. This MAY be the end of the plunge in stocks because of the slowdown in the yields' move, but the view is still short term bearish.
(The low didn't form yet, watched closely, but if it forms like I presume, then the divergence occurs with SMI idicator)
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