A lot of talk is being made in 2021 about the bond yields and personally I have been following the US10Y very closely due to its effect on Gold and stocks.
At the moment I have singled out the most important trend-line that should weigh heavily on the 10Y in the following weeks/ months. As you see it is the 2 month Higher Lows trend-line that started after the...
The Dow Jones (IA) / Gold Ratio and the U.S. 30-year Treasury Bonds / Russell2000 Index Ratio are coinciding at key levels. Both ratios are at historic turning points, foreshadowing their respective Phase Transitions! (and as such, indicating highly volatile, multi-standard deviation moves in the global equity indexes.) The title chart is an extended (120 years)...
I was stopped out on the last pattern i posted on this pair and now entered on another pattern. An alternate Bat pattern. In the white ellipses we have where the HSI Arrow printed in an area of extreme reading then PA came down out of reaction and both oscillators made it at least the 50 line respectively, and then did the HSI "Check back" that Scott Carney uses...
US 10 yr yields and BTC. Seems when there is indication that yields are going to be rising, BTC moves up, while when yields drop BTC remains relatively flat. This makes total sense, but wanted to visualize it for myself. I wouldn't use this for anything except documentation.
If you think the bond threat is over; it's not. It's you think the chopping is done; it ain't.
It's puzzling to me that the bond market hears another 2 trillion is going out the door and it's complacent with that. I guess because it's all "paid for" by 2 trillion in taxes over 15 years (it won't be). Meanwhile, the market hears that corporate taxes are going up...
1. Yields: Continued to peg 10-year JGB yield at "around zero", but widened the trading bond of 10-year JGB to plus minus 0.25%
2. Purchase of ETF: Ditched its 6 trillion yen guide for annual purchases of ETF , however, it will continue to buy equities as necessary with upper limits of about 12 trillion yen.
3. Interest Scheme to Promote Lending: Established...
We said in an earlier post that the continuation upwards for the 10 yr yeild is a sign that there could be a stock market pullback, that is a pretty good theory but also at the current levels really not a possibility. We are not taking into account any market issues like oh for example 2T worth of dollars pumped into the market. Those mini-bonds are not doing...
A good rule of thumb is that when investors are confused they transfer to cash. Investors become confused when they get contradictory signals.
Signal one; 10-year yields. They're going up, but not in a smooth orderly line; in fits and starts. Every week we get a 10 basis point jump. This is because every time the Chair of the federal Reserve gets on TV, he...
10 year bond yields approaching strong resistance here at the 200 weekly ema. I would be shocked if yields didn't reject from that level.
The drop in yields should be taken well by the broader stock markets & crypto sectors as fast rising yields have been attached to rising inflation (at least that's the current narrative).
The DXY is looking weak as well...
USD is rising everywhere. See the analysis from Friday:
Today's possibility is for EURUSD.
Here we have a very good example of a break and test of the trendline. After the impulse decline on Friday, which broke the trend line, we see a correction right next to it and...
US 10 yr yield curve vs the SP 500 weekly chart: I do not see any strong correlation between these two. When a market is overbought, a correction is due because of supply and demand reversal, not because of the bond curve. We have seen the market and the bond yield converge and diverge over the years. We have often seen that media tend to look for excuses when the...
Hello everyone
I was doing a research about market crashes in history (what was the reason, what happened next and how it was solved) ...So I read many titles about financial instruments in US (Loans,credit cards,mortgages etc) ...yeah and those freaking BONDS...we have two types of bonds - short-term and long-term..and here comes the trouble. They should go in...
Hello everyone
I was doing a research about market crashes in history (what was the reason, what happened next and how it was solved) ...So I read many titles about financial instruments in US (Loans,credit cards,mortgages etc) ...yeah and those freaking BONDS...we have two types of bonds - short-term and long-term..and here comes the trouble. They should go in...
This is the U.S. Government Bond 30Y Yield from 1988 until today. I chose this hyper long-term chart on the 1M (monthly) time-frame as with bonds being the talk of the month as for reasons that may move stocks, Gold etc lower, I wanted to get a good understanding of what the real long-term picture is.
This illustrates a clear and standard Channel Down. I have...
