In the last 12 months, the market value of Tegma (TGMA3) has decreased about 80% (06/01/2016 - $14.30 H; 01/27/2016 - $2.86 L). This company, which corebusiness is the transportation of new vehicles from factories to distributors, saw its revenues dwindle in face of the reduction of Brazilian consumer and employer confidence levels, the gloomy prospects for the...
Since 06/01/2016 VALE5 has enraged in a rally that built up more than 20% of the stock price, alligned with the results of IBOV (> +16%). This excelent result was made by a huge entrance of foreign capital in the Brazilian market, propiciated by the maintenance of low interest rates worldwide. What we see in the graphs of VALE5 are signs of accendent confidence...
Due to the increase in Debt/GDP of the world's biggest economic markets, the BRICS, and specially Brazil, that is impeaching its left wing corrupt president, are good options for those that want to escape from the bail ins and outs of the european market and from the chinese bubble. Obama's economic policy is also putting US in a very delicate situation. In...
Correction at IBOV, with a estimated fall of 4.7% approximately giving a 50% retrace of previous rally.
Seems like no frost in Brazil. It was a busy weeks last week and throughout the weekend with fears a frost could hit coffee areas. None has been confirmed and worst fears did not play out. Once all of this is digested I expect some downside opportunities as the market goes back into trading technicals rather than emotions. Quite oversold and we saw sell...
After a nice rally (see related idea), downtrend back again on IBOVESPA Signs: -Hook and crossover on overbought region of StochasticRSI; -MD down closed on RSI (white circles); -Marubozu candle at top of rally, followed by bearish candle indicating exhausted rally; -Price hit a conjunction of important trend lines, on a region of resistance;
I see a decision region for the IBOV for the short term (less than a month). The breakout of this triangle shaped figure will determine the direction the index will take for longer terms.
Petrobras in a new management. The new president says that he intends to rescue the company of an "organized gang", and will attempts partnership with shareholders to raise the economy of the company. In the other hand some scholars do not agree with the Parente's (new Director) proposals and intend to struggle against the reform in the company. In my view, I am...
Well, i believe that the dashed green line is a major support. Its a region of plenty RSI's UP MD (historically) and the dailly RSI is reaching the support of up trend. Its also the region of bottom of Wave 4 of the preceding rally. A look at the higher time frames will show that this is in fact a region of reversion, specially reversion from downtrends and...
At first i thought that wave (2) already had happened, but i changed my counting, and think that it is about to happen on next days or weeks. Three other technical signs agreed with this idea: the divergence of momentum indicators (indicated by purple trend lines), overbought condition on them as well and the fact that price is hitting a top of major channel. I...
Trading Idea for tomorrow. Long BMFBOVESPA:CPFE3 with great P/L ratio. CPFE3 is lagging other Brazilian utilities sector stocks.
Coffee nearing the orange support line around 122 (2nd month continuation, about 119-120 front month ). Interesting fact about this correction lower from 134 to 122 is that this is the first time in a couple years that we actually have an up-sloping support line (orange line). If the orange support holds this could mark a longer term trend reversal. On the...
Sideway action as the trend slope of the trend has become steeper. Not saying the uptrend is over, but stalling, especially since RSI and Stochastik start to indicate some divergence. Short call spreads seems to be good risk/reward IMHO. Wouldn't be buying puts as the premium will deteriorate as long as the market doesn't sell off.
Short term targets on the downside: - 9 day MA around 129 - middle BBand at around 125.50 - Fib retracements
The Bovespa has been forming a symmetrical downward trend followed by a 1.618 extension of the longer bull trend. You can see this in the chart by the first light blue fib retracement, and then I used a green arrow to indicate where the second retracement line is compared to the green 1.618 retracement line. The second to last move down is a bit tricky as it...
Trend changing? Look for 48K, then for 47K supports. Brazil´s fundamentals are critic just now. Major firms are overpriced. There are some of them that are cheap, but it is a hard mining job. Technical surprises loom over their heads. Volatility is very high.