ShortBrent
Short
Oil Structure: Preparing for a Larger Trend ShiftI see such a scenario for oil. The price may reach the $78 zone and from there attempt to launch toward higher levels such as $115–120–130, and even the previous high. I will only consider a stable ceasefire or peace scenario if oil breaks below the origin of the move.
BRENT OIL Forecast: Technical Weakness Meets Key Support🛢️💰 BRENT CRUDE OIL (UKOIL / ICE:BRN1!) — Energy Market Wealth Strategy Map
📅 Day Trade | Swing Trade Setup
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⚠️ THIEF TRADER INTEL BRIEF — READ BEFORE YOU TRADE ⚠️
"The market is a crime scene — follow the liquidity, not the noise."
— Thief Trader 🎭
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🔴 TRADE DIRECTION: BEARISH — SHORT SIDE
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📍 CURRENT LIVE MARKET PRICE (London Time — 10 June 2026):
• 🛢️ Brent Crude Oil (ICE:BRN1!): ~$92.00/bbl | Intraday Range: $89.61 – $94.43
• ⛽ WTI Crude Oil (NYMEX:CL1!): ~$88.80/bbl | Open: $91.41
• 52-Week Range (Brent): $58.72 – $126.41
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🎯 THE HEIST PLAN — ENTRY & TARGETS
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🔫 ENTRY ZONE:
• You can enter at ANY price level that suits your risk profile
• Use pullbacks, retests, or momentum breaks to your advantage
• Multi-timeframe confirmation is your best entry weapon 🔍
🎯 TARGET 1 (Day Traders — Quick Heist):
• 💵 TP1 → $89.000 — Intraday liquidity pocket & momentum exhaust zone
🎯 FINAL TARGET (Swing Traders — Full Loot):
• 💵 TP2 → $88.000 — Strong institutional support confluence:
➤ Police Force Support Level (Major demand floor)
➤ Oversold momentum signature on higher timeframes
➤ Trapped long positions below market structure
➤ Potential trend reversal zone — the escape point for maximum profit extraction 🏃♂️💨
🛑 THIEF STOP LOSS:
• 🔒 SL → $92.000 — Above current structure resistance & geopolitical spike zone
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📝 THIEF OG'S RISK DISCLAIMER
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Dear Ladies & Gentlemen — Thief OG's 🎩🥷
• TP and SL levels shown above are NOT mandatory recommendations
• These are reference zones only — your trade, your rules, your money
• Take profits when the market gives them to you — don't get greedy with the loot
• Always manage your own position sizing and risk per trade
• If you make money → take money. Stay sharp. Stay alive in the market. 💎
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🔗 CORRELATED PAIRS TO WATCH (USD-Denominated)
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These instruments move in sync with Brent — watch them for confluence confirmation:
🇺🇸⛽ WTI Crude Oil (NYMEX:CL1!) ~ $88.80/bbl
➤ Direct Brent sibling — nearly identical correlation (0.95+)
➤ WTI weakness confirms Brent bearish thesis across the Atlantic spread
🇺🇸💵 US Dollar Index (DXY) ~ monitoring zone
➤ Inverse correlation to oil — a stronger DXY adds downside pressure to crude
➤ Dollar weakness on June 9 temporarily supported crude — watch for reversal
➤ DXY recovery = headwind for oil bulls
🇨🇦 USD/CAD (FX:USDCAD)
➤ Canada is a major oil exporter — CAD tracks crude closely
➤ Bearish Brent = CAD weakening = USD/CAD rising
➤ Use USD/CAD rally as a confirmation signal for continued oil downside
🇳🇴 USD/NOK (FX:USDNOK)
➤ Norwegian Krone is the most oil-correlated G10 currency
➤ Brent falls → NOK weakens → USD/NOK rises
➤ Key confirmation pair for European energy traders
🇦🇺 AUD/USD (FX:AUDUSD)
➤ Risk-sensitive commodity currency — moves with global energy sentiment
➤ Oil sell-off + risk-off = AUD/USD bearish pressure
➤ Watch for correlated weakness as oil trends lower
🔥 Natural Gas (NYMEX:NG1!)
➤ Strait of Hormuz closure has disrupted ~20% of global LNG supply
➤ Natural gas prices remain elevated on supply chain disruption
➤ Watch NG as a geopolitical risk gauge — elevated NG = elevated oil risk premium
📊 XLE — Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:XLE)
➤ US energy sector equity benchmark — tracks oil company profitability
➤ Brent decline → XLE downside pressure
➤ Use as a macro energy sentiment gauge
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📰 FUNDAMENTAL & MACRO INTELLIGENCE FEED
(Live Data — London Time, 10 June 2026)
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🌍 GEOPOLITICAL BATTLEFIELD (Middle East):
• 🔴 Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed under a dual US-Iran blockade — disruptions now exceeding 3 months since February 28 conflict outbreak
• 🔴 Fresh US military strikes against Iran reported overnight — geopolitical risk premium spiking intraday
• 🟡 Iran and Israel exchanged strikes over the weekend, breaching a fragile ceasefire — peace talks ongoing but fragile
• 🟡 US President Trump urging de-escalation; Iran-US talks described as progressing but unresolved
• 🟢 Both Iran and Israel signalled temporary ceasefire intent — easing of war premium visible in Tuesday's price pullback from $94+ to below $93
🏭 SUPPLY DISRUPTION DATA (EIA / IEA June 2026):
• 🔴 Middle Eastern oil producers collectively cut output by over 11 million b/d from pre-conflict levels
• 🔴 Cumulative Gulf supply losses exceed 1 billion barrels since conflict began
• 🔴 OECD inventories at lowest level since 2003 — global inventory draws averaging 6.3 million b/d in Q2 2026
• 🔴 Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline operating at ~2 mb/d vs. 7 mb/d design capacity — limited bypass capability
• 🔴 Global LNG flows disrupted — approximately 20% of world LNG supply previously transited Hormuz
🏦 OPEC+ PRODUCTION POLICY:
• 🟡 OPEC+ approved another July production increase of 188,000 b/d — fourth consecutive monthly hike
• 🟡 OPEC+ now operating without UAE (shock departure) — first meeting in this new format
• 🟡 Previous May hike was 206,000 b/d — July increase is slightly lower
• 🟡 Despite hikes, actual Gulf export flows remain choked — paper barrels vs. deliverable barrels divergence active
🌏 DEMAND DESTRUCTION SIGNALS:
• 🔴 EIA June STEO: Global oil demand expected to fall 1.1 million b/d in 2026 vs. 2025 — demand destruction confirmed
• 🔴 China aggressively pulling back on overseas crude imports — drawing from strategic reserves instead (1,541 million barrels stockpile)
• 🔴 China was Hormuz's largest oil buyer at 5.35 mb/d pre-conflict — now managing on inventory buffer
• 🔴 Japan and South Korea demand each fell ~290,000 b/d year-on-year in April — petrochemical sector heavily hit
• 🔴 OECD Asia demand declining by ~440,000 b/d year-on-year through Q2 2026
💹 PRICE ACTION CONTEXT (Verified Levels):
• Brent hit $138/bbl on April 7 at peak conflict panic — since retraced significantly
• Brent averaged $107/bbl in May — down $10 from April average
• Brent fell 12.57% over the past month — still 36.26% above year-ago levels
• Current price ~$92/bbl reflects easing war premium + demand destruction + ceasefire hopes
📅 HIGH-IMPACT UPCOMING EVENTS TO MONITOR:
• 🗓️ OPEC+ next output adjustment meeting — July schedule
• 🗓️ EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report — every Wednesday (London 15:30)
• 🗓️ Brent Futures Settlement Date — 30 June 2026
• 🗓️ US-Iran Peace Negotiation developments — ongoing & market-sensitive
• 🗓️ EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook next release — 7 July 2026
• 🗓️ Federal Reserve policy posture — USD direction impact on crude pricing
• 🗓️ IEA Monthly Oil Market Report — mid-July
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🧠 TECHNICAL CONFLUENCE SUMMARY
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🔻 Investing.com Daily Signal: STRONG SELL
🔻 Multi-timeframe moving average alignment: Bearish (Hourly / 5H / Daily)
🔻 Price pulled back sharply from April peak at $138 — structural downtrend intact on macro view
🔻 Current price re-testing former resistance-turned-support — breakdown risk elevated
🔻 Volume on sell side expanding as ceasefire optimism builds
🔻 Demand destruction narrative accelerating = fundamental weight on price
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🎭 THIEF TRADER MOTIVATION — FROM THE VAULT
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"Every candle tells a story. Every level hides a trap.
The Thief doesn't chase the market — the Thief waits for the market to come to them." 🕵️♂️
"Discipline is the weapon. Patience is the strategy.
Profits are the reward." 💰🔐
"In a world of noise, the smart money moves in silence.
Be the shadow. Be the Thief." 🌑🏆
Stay locked in, Thief OG's. This is not just a trade — it's a calculated heist.
Execute with precision. Exit with profits. 🚀💎
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⚠️ STANDARD RISK DISCLAIMER
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Trading involves substantial risk of loss. TP and SL levels published here are not
financial advice or mandatory recommendations. All trades carry risk. Manage your
capital responsibly. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade
at your own risk and always apply your own due diligence. 🛡️
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🙌 If this idea adds value to your trading game — Drop a LIKE 👍 | Leave a COMMENT 💬
BOOST this post so more Thief OG's can find the loot! 🚀
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Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 12 June 2026XAUUSD: SELL 4310.00, SL 4340.00, TP 4220.00
Gold starts the week under pressure after a strong US labor market report. The data strengthened expectations of a higher Fed rate, supporting the US dollar and US Treasury yields. This is a negative factor for gold, as the asset does not generate interest income.
At the same time, the decline may be limited by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and demand for safe-haven assets. However, over the weekly horizon, Fed policy expectations remain the key factor: if the market continues to price in a higher rate, XAU/USD may retain its downward bias.
Trading recommendation: SELL 4310.00, SL 4340.00, TP 4220.00
#SP500: SELL 7400, SL 7460, TP 7220
The US stock market enters the new week after a strong sell-off in the technology sector. Pressure increased after the US employment report: the resilient labor market reduced expectations of a quick easing of Fed policy and made investors more sensitive to upcoming inflation data.
Additional risk for #SP500 comes from rising oil prices and tensions in the Middle East, as these factors may increase inflation expectations and put pressure on corporate costs. Over the weekly horizon, the base-case scenario is a cautious decline in the index while risk appetite remains unstable.
Trading recommendation: SELL 7400, SL 7460, TP 7220
#BRENT: BUY 96.50, SL 93.50, TP 105.50
Brent starts the week higher amid a renewed escalation between Israel and Iran. The market is again assessing risks to oil supplies through the Middle East, including possible disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. This supports prices despite investor caution after strong US economic data.
The OPEC+ decision to increase production quotas from July remains a limiting factor. However, the actual effect may be limited if geopolitical risks continue to disrupt stable exports. This week, the fundamental balance for Brent remains moderately positive.
Trading recommendation: BUY 96.50, SL 93.50, TP 105.50
BRENT H1 Bullish Continuation Toward 99 and 101📝 Description
BLACKBULL:BRENT crude has reacted strongly from the lower support area after forming a bullish market structure shift. The recent rebound from the discount zone, combined with a CHOCH and subsequent BOS, suggests buyers are regaining control and targeting higher liquidity pools.
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📈 Analysis
Primary Bias: Bullish
Preferred Setup:
• Price has already delivered a bullish reaction from the lower NWOG support area
• The recent impulsive move confirms demand entering the market
• As long as Brent remains above the latest support zone, upside continuation toward the marked targets remains favored
Targets:
• TP1: 98.96
• TP2: 101.11
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📚 ICT & SMC Notes
• Bullish CHOCH followed by BOS confirms a shift in order flow
• Price is moving toward unfilled NWOG and FVG liquidity targets above
• Recent displacement suggests smart money accumulation from lower levels
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🧩 Summary
The current structure supports a bullish continuation scenario, with Brent targeting the liquidity and imbalance zones around 98.96 and 101.11. The recent market structure shift strengthens the probability of further upside expansion.
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🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment
Alongside the technical bullish structure, the renewed escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel is increasing geopolitical risk premiums in the energy market. Concerns about potential supply disruptions in the region are supporting oil prices, and as long as these tensions persist, Brent could continue advancing toward the highlighted targets near 99 and 101 dollars.
________________________________________
⚠️ Risk Disclosure
Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
UKOIL: The Architecture of the Next Energy Cycle
Markets don’t just move; they breathe. And right now, Oil is exhaling a very complex breath.
While the headlines are obsessed with daily volatility and geopolitical noise, the structure tells a much deeper story—one of a massive Wave II correction nearing its structural maturity.
1️⃣ Crowd Psychology: The Fog of Uncertainty
The crowd is currently lost in the “Middle Channel” noise. Most traders see the current drop as a sign of long-term weakness. They are reacting to the price action of today, forgetting the structural cycle of tomorrow.
In the eyes of the majority, $80 looks like a breakdown. In the eyes of structure, it looks like an opportunity being carved out by a Regular Flat. The crowd sells at the end of Wave C because they can’t see the Wave III that follows.
2️⃣ Structural Thesis: The Regular Flat
The roadmap for UKOIL is clear: We are currently finalizing Wave II (Big Degree).
This correction has taken the form of a Regular Flat (A-B-C):
Wave A: A complex corrective sequence (W-X-Y-X-Z).
Wave B: A corrective bounce that respected the structural ceiling.
Wave C: Currently descending in a 5-wave impulse toward the golden zone.
The Truncation at the peak of Wave I was the early warning sign that this correction would be deep and time-consuming. We are now navigating the final internal legs of this Wave C.
3️⃣ Tactical Focus: The Buy Zones
We are monitoring two primary zones for the completion of Wave II:
Aggressive Target (50%-61.8% Fib): Near the $84.434 area. This aligns with the “Regular Flat” thesis.
Conservative/Expanded Target: If Wave C extends, we look toward $72.966.
The Big Picture: Once Wave II finds its floor, the transition into Wave III begins.
🎯 First Target Range: $120.015
🎯 Major Target Range: $141.879
Invalidation Level: The entire bullish thesis is void if price breaches $58.589.
4️⃣ Behavioral Trap: The “Headline Trap”
Oil is the most “talked-about” commodity. The trap here is listening to the news instead of the waves. The news will tell you why Oil is “crashing” just as it hits the $84 support zone.
Don’t trade the narrative. Trade the geometry. If you fill your head with headlines, you’ll have no room left for the roadmap.
Final Thought
We are not looking for the bottom; we are looking for the completion of the structure. The market is currently finishing its “correction sentence.” Let it speak.
Structure is the only truth in a world of noise.
— Mr. Nobody
Elliott Wave Researcher
Disclaimer: Educational analysis only. Elliott Wave counts are probabilistic. Manage your risk with discipline.
Long
OIL INDIA: The Most Obvious Inverted Head & Shoulders ...YOU are ignoring.
🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️
While everyone is obsessed (for right now) by the Middle East military operation, Oil India has quietly carved out a textbook Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern.
The neckline is currently being tested at ₹492, and the volume profile shows massive institutional accumulation during the "right shoulder" formation.
This isn't just a trade; it's a structural shift in the energy sector that’s ready to explode.
A breakout above ₹492 triggers a massive technical move toward ₹540 and eventually ₹600.
With a ₹73,015 crore order book in the sector and crude prices on a tear, this "Maharatna" is undervalued and over-ready. Is ₹600 a dream or a destination for OIL? Let me know your target!
( I can see even larger valutaions)
🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀
Long
Brent SHORT — Iran Deal Progress Kills War Premium. $92 Target🛢️ BRENT CRUDE (BRN) — SHORT SETUP
June 4, 2026
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⚡ WHY THE NARRATIVE JUST FLIPPED:
Two days ago: Russia sanctions + Iran =
oil surged to $98.
Today: Iran nuclear deal progress =
war premium deflating again.
This is the fourth time in 2026
this exact pattern has played out:
→ Escalation → oil surges
→ Peace talks → oil falls
Each time the bounce gets weaker.
$98 was the peak this week.
Now heading back to $92-93.
The market has learned:
Iran headlines = temporary noise.
The structural direction = lower.
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📊 TRADE SETUP:
🎯 Entry: $95.75 – $96.50
🛑 Stop Loss: $98.50
✅ Take Profit: $92.80
⚖️ Risk/Reward: 1:2.1
⏱ Timeframe: Short-term (2-3 days)
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💡 BEARISH FACTORS:
🔴 Iran nuclear deal talks progressing
= war premium deflating
🔴 Ceasefire extension talks active
🔴 Conviction waning — oil flat
despite bullish geopolitical news
🔴 Demand concerns persist
🔴 Global slowdown = less oil needed
🔴 Stagflation confirmed in US
🔴 Pattern: 4th bounce-and-fail
at $98-100 resistance
🟢 RISK FACTORS:
- Iran deal collapses suddenly
- Russia escalates in response
to US sanctions
- Break above $98.50 = stop hit
- NFP Friday strong = growth =
demand optimism = oil up
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🔍 KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
🔴 Stop Loss: $98.50
🔴 Resistance: $97.00 → $98.50
🔵 Entry zone: $95.75 – $96.50
🟡 Support: $93.00
🟢 Target: $92.80
$98-100 = ceiling confirmed
4 times in 2 months.
Each test rejected.
This is a defined resistance zone.
Break below $93 =
momentum to $88-90 resumes.
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📅 KEY EVENTS FOR OIL THIS WEEK:
Today June 4:
→ SpaceX IPO roadshow begins
→ Risk-on = some oil support
→ But capital rotates to SPCX
Tomorrow June 5 🔴:
→ ADP Employment
→ ISM Services PMI
→ Jobless Claims
→ Weak = recession = oil demand falls
Friday June 6 🔴🔴:
→ NFP Jobs Report 18:30 GMT
→ Fed blackout begins
→ Weak NFP = recession fear
= oil demand destruction ✅
→ Strong NFP = economy fine
= oil demand intact ⚠️
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🌍 TODAY'S MARKET SNAPSHOT:
🛢️ Brent: $95.75 (resistance zone)
🥇 Gold: $4,476 (holding $4,450)
₿ Bitcoin: $62,330 ↓↓ (-15.6% in 4 days!)
📊 Dow Mini: 51,103 ↑ (risk-on)
💶 EUR/USD: 1.1636 (neutral)
Bitcoin collapse is the main story.
Stocks at highs. BTC in freefall.
This divergence has never been
more extreme in 2026.
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⚖️ OVERALL BIAS: BEARISH
Iran deal progress kills war premium +
$98 resistance confirmed again +
4th failed breakout at $98-100 +
Demand concerns persistent +
Clean 1:2.1 R/R =
solid short with defined risk.
The war premium that took weeks
to build keeps collapsing
the moment peace is discussed.
Follow AI_advisor_ for daily signals
on Gold, Oil & Bitcoin. 🎯
⚠️ Educational purposes only.
Manage your risk. Trade safe. 🙏
Short
Oil back in the spotlight!Oil #WTI and #BRENT remain among the most sensitive assets in the market. Prices continue to be supported by tensions in the Middle East, uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations, restricted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and the risk of supply disruptions. According to Reuters, on June 2, #BRENT closed near $96 per barrel, while #WTI settled around $93.76, extending gains amid expectations of new developments regarding Iran and global oil supplies.
The key driver for the market remains geopolitics. The Strait of Hormuz continues to be a major risk point, as a significant share of global oil and gas flows passes through this route, and any restrictions on its operation increase supply concerns. Additional pressure comes from attacks on Russian oil refining infrastructure, declining oil inventories ahead of the high-demand summer season, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding a potential peace agreement involving Iran. At the same time, upside potential is being limited by signs of weakening demand. Elevated prices are already forcing consumers and industries to reduce consumption, while the International Energy Agency has reported softer demand from both the petrochemical and aviation sectors.
5 factors currently driving #WTI and #BRENT:
The Strait of Hormuz . Restrictions on shipping through one of the world’s most important oil transit routes support prices and increase the risk premium.
US-Iran negotiations . Any signs of a breakthrough agreement could push prices lower, while failed talks or renewed escalation could trigger another strong rally.
Oil inventories. Traders are closely monitoring stockpiles in the US and globally. Continued inventory declines ahead of the summer season may provide further support for WTI and BRENT.
Demand from China, aviation, and petrochemicals . If high prices begin to weigh more heavily on consumption, oil may enter a corrective phase.
Production growth outside the Middle East. The US, Brazil, Argentina, and other producers are partially offsetting supply shortages, but so far not enough to fully ease market tensions.
Changes in oil prices also affect the shares of major energy companies. Rising #WTI and #BRENT prices typically support oil producers such as ExxonMobil (#Exxon), Chevron (#Chevron), ConocoPhillips (#ConPhillip), Shell (#Shell), BP (#BP), and TotalEnergies (#Total). Higher oil prices generally boost revenue and profit margins for producers, as they can sell crude at higher prices while operating costs remain relatively stable. This can improve financial performance and increase investor interest in their stocks.
Long
Stop!Loss|Market View: SILVER🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️
In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for TVC:SILVER ☝️
Potential trade setup:
🔔Entry level: 71.66476
💰TP: 66.70298
⛔️SL: 74.28502
"Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market.
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💬 Description: Silver continues to be under pressure despite a successful short-term attempt by buyers to rally from support at 72. The price is highly likely to fall there again soon for a more active test, after which a potential downward breakout is expected. A price close below this support will be an opportunity for potential selling with targets at 65 and 66.
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Profits for all ✅
Short
Stop!Loss|Market View: GOLD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️
In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for TVC:GOLD ☝️
Potential trade setup:
🔔Entry level: 4436.245
💰TP: 4101.396
⛔️SL: 4504.773
"Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market.
👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts.
💬 Description: Metals remain under pressure both technically and amid actions in the Middle East. Two scenarios are being considered for gold: the main scenario assumes a test of yesterday's low 4448.245 (June 1, 2026), and after a confirmed breakout, potential selling towards 4300 and 4100 can be considered. If the price does move higher, selling can again be considered near 4600. In this case, all targets remain the same as in the primary scenario.
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Profits for all ✅
Short
Brent LONG — US Sanctions Russia Oil. Inventories Shrinking. 🛢️ BRENT CRUDE (BRN) — LONG SETUP
June 1, 2026
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⚡ TWO NEW BULLISH CATALYSTS TODAY:
For weeks markets celebrated
ceasefire hopes and oil fell.
Today two new forces emerged:
🇺🇸 CATALYST 1 — US SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA:
Washington announced new sanctions
targeting Russia's oil industry.
This removes additional barrels
from the global supply.
Combined with Iran disruptions =
supply crunch from two directions.
📦 CATALYST 2 — SHRINKING INVENTORIES:
Global oil inventories reported
falling for 6th consecutive week.
The market was oversupplied in April.
Now it's moving toward deficit.
EIA data confirms the trend.
These two developments override
ceasefire optimism.
When supply falls from multiple sources —
price goes up regardless of headlines.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📊 TRADE SETUP:
🎯 Entry: $93.88 – $94.50
🛑 Stop Loss: $91.80
✅ Take Profit: $98.50
⚖️ Risk/Reward: 1:2.0
⏱ Timeframe: Short-term (2-3 days)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
💡 BULLISH FACTORS:
🟢 US sanctions on Russia oil = new supply loss
🟢 Inventories shrinking 6 weeks straight
🟢 Iran tensions — not fully resolved
🟢 Brent up +1.23% today already
🟢 Bullish sentiment: 72/100
🟢 $94 holding as support today
🟢 UAE left OPEC = fragmented supply
🟢 Nigeria missed OPEC target again
🔴 RISK FACTORS:
- Iran ceasefire deal confirmed
- Russia sanctions reversed
- OPEC+ emergency output increase
- Recession data = demand destruction
- Break below $91.80 = stop hit
- NFP Friday = weak economy =
demand concerns
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔍 KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
🔴 Target: $98.50
🔴 Resistance: $97.00 → $98.50
🔵 Entry zone: $93.88 – $94.50
🟡 Support: $92.00
🟢 Stop Loss: $91.80
$94 = key level today.
Tested multiple times — held.
When support holds under
conflicting headlines =
buyers are serious.
Break above $97 =
momentum confirms toward $98.50.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📅 KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK FOR OIL:
Tuesday June 2:
→ API Crude Inventories (evening)
→ Draw = very bullish ✅
→ Build = some pressure
Wednesday June 3:
→ EIA Crude Inventories
→ Most watched oil data weekly
→ Sixth consecutive draw expected ✅
Thursday June 5:
→ ADP Employment
→ ISM Services PMI
→ Jobless Claims
Friday June 6 🔴:
→ NFP Jobs Report 18:30 GMT
→ Weak jobs = recession =
oil demand concern ⚠️
→ Strong jobs = economy fine =
oil demand intact ✅
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🌍 TODAY'S MARKET SNAPSHOT:
🛢️ Brent: $93.88 ↑ (supply fears)
🥇 Gold: $4,509 ↓ (weak)
₿ Bitcoin: $72,614 ↓ (danger zone)
📊 Dow Mini: 51,337 ↑ (risk-on)
💶 EUR/USD: 1.1645 (dollar soft)
Oil rising + stocks rising +
gold falling = risk-on mood.
But oil leading = supply story real.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🌍 THE SUPPLY PICTURE:
Three supply problems at once:
1. Iran — Hormuz disruptions
ongoing despite peace talks
2. Russia — new US sanctions
removing barrels from market
3. Nigeria — missed OPEC target
9th consecutive month
Triple supply squeeze =
$98-100 is realistic target
this week.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
⚖️ OVERALL BIAS: BULLISH
Russia sanctions + inventory draws +
Iran unresolved + $94 support holding +
Bullish sentiment 72/100 +
Clean 1:2 R/R =
best oil setup this week.
Supply problems don't disappear
with a peace tweet.
Three sources of supply loss =
oil goes higher.
Follow AI_advisor_ for daily signals
on Gold, Oil & Bitcoin. 🎯
⚠️ Educational purposes only.
Manage your risk. Trade safe. 🙏
Long
Short
BRENT (4H) — Two Roads. One Line: $84.174
I don’t predict.
I track what the market confirms… and what it invalidates.
First Price Invalidation: $84.174
Above/below this line, the story changes. Simple.
Road 1 — The Aggressive Path (Zigzag → Bullish Confirmation)
If the current pullback is a zigzag within the next 1–2 sequence, price should stop whispering and start acting:
break out of the corrective channel, then print a clean bullish confirmation, then correct again—without touching the invalidation.
Not hype.
Just structure turning from corrective to directional.
Road 2 — The Conservative Path (Regular Flat → One More Drop)
If the market chooses patience over power, we may be inside a Regular Flat.
In that case, the previous leg can be treated as wave 3 completed, and what we’re seeing now is only part of the rotation—until the market delivers one more bearish leg to complete wave C (bigger-degree flat logic).
Three waves can look like hope.
Sometimes they’re just a setup.
For now:
$84.174 is the gate.
The channel break is the clue.
And the next leg will reveal the truth.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody
#Brent #BrentOil #CrudeOil #ElliottWave #MarketStructure #4H #TechnicalAnalysis
Long
Brent 18% Above Its 200-Day MA: Which Way Does It Revert?Brent 18% Above Its 200-Day Moving Average: Which Way Does It Revert?
Brent at $94.21 is trading a full 18.2% above its 200-day moving average (SMA200) at $79.63, and historically such overextended levels bring mean reversion pressure along with them.
Where do we stand right now?
Price is actually pulling back from a massive overextension.
In March 2026, Brent had spiked as high as 63% above the SMA200 ($112) — the most extreme deviation of the post-2020 period. Over the last 9 weeks, price fell 16% and compressed the deviation from 63% to 18%, but it remains in "overextended" territory. The momentum side confirms this cooling: weekly RSI retreated from 67 to 52, dropping below its own moving average (70.9), and this signals that upward momentum has exhausted itself.
What do past deviations teach us?
In the post-2020 period, every time Brent stretched more than 10% above the SMA200, it resulted in mean reversion without exception.
The 26% deviation in summer 2021 returned to neutral territory (+5% band) in 7 weeks with a 14% drop from the peak; the 50% deviation during the 2022 war shock normalized in 19 weeks, declining 15% from the peak. In other words, upside extremes typically resolve within 2-5 months and with a pullback of around 14-15%. The picture is symmetrical on the downside as well: the 18% negative deviation in April 2025 ($59.9) and the recurring 10-13% deviations in 2024 each served as precursors to strong recoveries. This reveals that the SMA200 functions as a powerful magnet over the long term.
Has this cycle completed?
Not yet.
The current 18% positive deviation is significantly above historical mean-reversion thresholds (the +5% band), and there is still room below for price to normalize. A return to the +5% band points roughly to the $83.6 level (approximately -11%), while settling right on the SMA200 points to $79.63 (approximately -15%). The Fibonacci structure supports this too: price sits between 0.618 ($89.5) and 0.786 ($109.7), and a slip below 0.618 could accelerate the reversion to the mean.
So what can we expect as a conclusion?
Brent sits in an overextended zone above its long-term moving average, leaning toward mean reversion alongside cooling momentum; $89.5 (0.618) stands out as the first critical support, and if it breaks, the $83-$79.6 band (SMA200) emerges as the most likely magnet zone historically, however holding weekly closes above $89.5 could weaken this reversion scenario.
Stop!Loss|Market View: EURUSD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️
In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for the OANDA:EURUSD currency pair☝️
Potential trade setup:
🔔Entry level: 1.15756
💰TP: 1.14340
⛔️SL: 1.16379
"Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market.
👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts.
💬 Description: The latest escalation in the Middle East has led to a strengthening of the US dollar (as a safe-haven asset). Currently, all major instruments are under pressure, and this trend is expected to continue in the medium term. In the short term, the euro is expected to pause in accumulation near 1.16000 after such an aggressive decline. In this scenario, further declines towards 1.15000 and 1.14000 are expected.
Thanks for your support 🚀
Profits for all ✅
Short
Is this worth a 5% drop in oil? Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. would give talks with Iran “every chance to succeed.”
WTI crude dropped more than 5% to close at $88.68 a barrel, while Brent also fell more than 5% to settle at $94.29.
“The bottom line is that we prefer the negotiated diplomatic route and we’re going to give it every chance to succeed,” Rubio said.
That was enough for oil traders to hit sell. But the scale of the move raises a question: is the oil market so desperate for positive news that it is overreacting to any hint of diplomacy? The comment did not confirm a deal. It did not remove the risk of escalation. It simply suggested the U.S. still prefers a negotiated route.
Oil bulls just got a big call from Piper SandlerBrent futures have moved lower since Friday, although prices recovered some ground on Tuesday as traders weighed mixed signals around a possible Iran deal.
Investment bank Piper Sandler has taken a more cautious view, telling clients it expects the Strait of Hormuz to remain largely closed and oil prices to reach new highs.
The bank said it has very little confidence that commercial traffic through the Strait will return to even 50% of pre-crisis levels, even by next month.
If that view proves correct, another move higher in oil could add pressure to the recent rally in equity markets. Japan may be particularly exposed, given its reliance on imported energy.
Stop!Loss|Market View: EURUSD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️
In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for the OANDA:EURUSD currency pair☝️
"Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market.
👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts.
💬 Description: The euro price is locked in the 1.16000 - 1.16500 range, and this selling pressure in the medium term suggests a likely decline toward 1.14000. Currently, two scenarios are being considered: a false breakout of the upper accumulation boundary (the main scenario) and a breakout of support (the alternative scenario). Market volatility will likely increase in the second half of this week against this backdrop, and we can expect these scenarios to play out.
Thanks for your support 🚀
Profits for all ✅
Short
Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 29 May 2026XAUUSD: BUY 4560.00, SL 4530.00, TP 4650.00
Gold starts the week near $4,560 per ounce and is supported by a weaker US dollar. Investors are assessing the prospects of a US-Iran agreement on the Strait of Hormuz: lower oil prices reduce inflation risks and partly ease the pressure of high interest rates on the metals market.
Demand for safe-haven assets remains in place, as a quick outcome to the negotiations is not guaranteed. If the dollar stays under pressure and market participants continue to price in a softer inflation backdrop due to falling oil prices, XAU/USD may keep the advantage on the buyers’ side during the week.
Trading recommendation: BUY 4560.00, SL 4530.00, TP 4650.00
#SP500: BUY 7475, SL 7415, TP 7655
The S&P 500 starts the week near 7,475 points after steady growth in the US stock market. The index is supported by improved investor risk sentiment, oil falling below $100, and demand for technology stocks following strong corporate earnings.
The main factor limiting growth is the high yield on US Treasury bonds and the Fed’s caution due to inflation. However, if Middle East negotiations continue to reduce energy risks, #SP500 still has room for moderate growth.
Trading recommendation: BUY 7475, SL 7415, TP 7655
#BRENT: SELL 98.30, SL 101.30, TP 89.30
Brent starts the week near $98.30 per barrel after a sharp decline. Pressure on the price increased due to expectations of a US-Iran agreement, which could open the way for the restoration of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and reduce the risk premium in oil prices.
The market is still taking into account the possibility that negotiations may fail, so upward rebounds are possible. However, the basic weekly background is shifting toward a decline: if supply concerns ease and demand remains cautious, Brent may continue moving lower.
Trading recommendation: SELL 98.30, SL 101.30, TP 89.30
Long
The US-Iran ceasefire hopes weigh on crudeUSOIL | 4H Technical Analysis — May 25, 2026
Positive developments in Iran-US ceasefire negotiations are weighing on crude prices, with Pakistan's army chief traveling to Tehran as a key mediator — a move markets are interpreting as a meaningful step toward de-escalation. The prospect of reduced Middle East geopolitical risk premiums and potential easing of Iranian supply restrictions is pulling oil lower in the session.
USOIL has been trading within a broad rising structure since February, with a long-term ascending trendline providing structural support through each major pullback. Price is currently trading around 91, with EMA21 (97.17) and EMA78 (99.18) in a bearish configuration. EMA21 has crossed below EMA78, signaling near-term softness.
The March spike to 119 was sharp and short-lived, reversing quickly back into the 90–100 range. A second push to 116 in late March also failed to hold, establishing a clear double-top structure in the 115–119 zone. Since then, price has been grinding lower within the 90–105 range, with each recovery attempt capped at 105 and the trendline support rising to meet the current price near 90.
Price has broken below the ascending trendline, with RSI at 32.80 and approaching oversold territory. This confluence of trendline support and RSI compression makes the current zone a technically significant decision point.
Key levels to watch:
Resistance: 100 (EMA78 / psychological) / 105 / 115–119 (double-top highs)
Support: 90 (trendline) → 85 → 77–80 (pre-spike base)
Bear case: A break below the ascending trendline at 90, particularly if ceasefire news accelerates, would mark a structural breakdown of the entire rally. RSI breaking below 30 without a bounce would confirm the move, opening the path toward 85 and the 77–80 base zone.
Bull case: A trendline holds at 90 with RSI bouncing from oversold levels sets up a technical recovery toward 100 and EMA78. A reclaim of 100 and EMA78 crossover would neutralize the near-term bearish signal and reopen the 105 resistance test.
Bias is cautiously bearish in the near term — the EMA death cross, and ceasefire-driven supply risk premium unwinding all point lower, but the ascending trendline at 90 and oversold RSI make an outright breakdown far from guaranteed.
Oil pullback on the cardsBrent crude is due for a pullback, once the dust settles in the Middle East. We see $80 per barrel as a potential consolidation point, upon which future gains could be made on non-war related thesis.
The world is hungry for energy, that won't go away. The type of energy is the big question. Oil has a built-in self-correcting mechanism. Every time it rallies hard and quick, global economies struggle with price rises, dampening demand and bringing the price back to a more normal level.
We feel that could happen in the second half of this year, the 200-day moving average should continue to hold in an upward trend. But there is some downside here from profit taking post US/Iran negotiations.
The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.
Short
Oil. Beginning of the drop and the final stage of market growthBack in March we made strong profits on oil’s upside move trend continuation on oil played out perfectly.
Now it’s time to profit from the downside.
There are several reasons for a potential decline — and they are starting to align together.
1️⃣ Iran & US — deal getting closer
Negotiations are entering the final stage.
Since April there has been a ceasefire, tensions continue decreasing, and Trump is publicly talking about a possible agreement.
What does this mean for oil?
• Iranian barrels return to the market → +1–1.5M barrels/day of additional supply
• Geopolitical risk premium disappears
• Strait of Hormuz fully reopens
At the same time: OPEC+ is already increasing production
while the global economy keeps slowing down.
Supply rises → Demand weakens
Result seems obvious 📉
“But if there is a deal, won’t stocks and crypto pump?”
Short-term → yes, another squeeze higher is possible
But the market has already been pricing this in for weeks.
When the deal becomes official👉 it may become a profit-taking event rather than the start of a new rally 💣
2️⃣ Macro pressure — US bond yields
In my previous post I explained why rising long-term US yields are one of the most dangerous macro signals for global markets.
10Y and 30Y US Treasury yields continue moving higher.
And if this trend continues, large investors and funds will increasingly ask themselves:
Why hold overheated risk assets when US government bonds offer 5%+ with almost no risk? 🤷♂️
Capital starts rotating:
from equities and risk assets → into high-yield “safe” instruments
Liquidity decreases.
And oil is usually one of the first assets to react 💸
On top of that Kevin Warsh officially became the new Fed chairman today. He is known as a hawk and opponent of cheap money.
👉 Fast rate cuts are unlikely under his leadership.
Meaning the environment of expensive money and pressure on risk assets remains intact.
3️⃣ Technical analysis
Brent daily chart speaks for itself:
• price broke below MA20-D and MA50-D
• ascending channel from February is broken
• massive bearish divergence
• indicator turning lower below neutral zone
• heavy sell volume on recent red candles
• key $119–120 resistance failed to break convincingly
The entire structure looks like:
👉 end of the upward correction
👉 beginning of a new leg down
Main target MA20-W zone around $89–90 .
✔️ If the Iran deal happens and yields continue rising —
this scenario becomes highly realistic over the coming weeks (or even days) ⏳
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
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Short