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Brentoil

BRENT Crude INTRADAY oversold bounce capped at 6533The price sentiment for Brent Crude Oil remains bearish, in line with the prevailing downtrend. Recent price action shows an oversold rally, which has stalled near a previous consolidation zone around 6533 — a key resistance level. Key Resistance Level: 6533 This level marks a previous intraday consolidation area and could act as a ceiling for the current rally. Bearish Scenario: If WTI fails to break above 6533, it may resume its decline toward: 6207 (near-term support) 6080 5885 (longer-term support) Bullish Scenario: A confirmed breakout and daily close above 6533 would shift momentum and open upside targets at: 6707 6860 7040 Conclusion: WTI Crude Oil remains under bearish pressure unless it breaks and closes above 6533. Traders should monitor this level closely for signs of rejection or breakout. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:BRENT
by TradeNation
Brent under pressure: A rebound may be comingIn 2025, oil prices have come under significant pressure, falling more than 21% since the beginning of the year — from $75 to around $59 per barrel of #BRENT. This decline was driven by increased production from OPEC+ countries, weak global demand (particularly in Asia), heightened economic risks due to trade disputes, and rising output from non-OPEC producers such as the U.S. and Brazil. Together, these factors created an oversupply amid stagnant demand. Currently, the oil market continues to be shaped by a range of influencing factors. While accurately predicting prices remains a challenge, several key drivers are likely to steer oil price movements in the near term. Here’s a look at the main bullish and bearish factors: • Geopolitical tensions (Bullish driver): Ongoing or emerging conflicts in key oil-producing regions (such as the Middle East and Eastern Europe) raise concerns about potential supply disruptions. Even without actual disruptions, the perceived risk leads traders to factor in a “risk premium,” pushing prices higher. Any escalation could trigger sharp price spikes. • OPEC+ policy (Bullish/neutral driver): The alliance’s production decisions remain a major influence on supply. If OPEC+ maintains or tightens its current output cuts to balance the market or target price levels, this will support price growth or at least stability. Conversely, quota breaches or output increases would weigh on prices. • Global economic outlook (Bearish/bullish driver): The trajectory of global economic growth directly affects oil demand. Signs of GDP slowdowns in major economies (U.S., China, EU) tend to weaken demand and drag prices lower. On the other hand, if economic growth proves more resilient than expected, it would support oil demand and prices. Uncertainty over the growth path of many countries persists in 2025. • Non-OPEC+ output growth (Bearish driver): Countries outside of the OPEC+ alliance — including the U.S. (shale), Brazil, Guyana, and Canada — continue expanding their production. Significant output increases from these nations could offset OPEC+ efforts and lead to market oversupply, applying downward pressure on prices. • Energy transition and underinvestment (Medium-term bullish driver): ESG pressures, the global shift toward renewables, and uncertainty around long-term fossil fuel demand have led to underinvestment in new oil exploration and development. If existing capacity declines faster than new projects come online, a structural supply deficit could emerge, supporting higher prices even amid the energy transition. FreshForex analysts believe that, given ongoing geopolitical risks, strict OPEC+ policies, and underinvestment in production, the oil market is nearing a potential upward reversal. A modest uptick in demand or increased tension could be enough to put oil back on a growth trajectory.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Brent Crude Opens with a Bearish GapBrent Crude Opens with a Bearish Gap As shown on the XBR/USD chart, Brent crude oil opened this Monday morning around $59.00, forming a bearish gap relative to Friday’s closing price of approximately $61.40. The current Brent crude oil price is near the yearly low reached about a month ago, following the announcement of Trump’s tariffs, which turned out to be significantly higher than expected. Why Is Oil Falling? As we noted on 30 April, market participants are closely watching news related to OPEC+. Over the weekend, during an online meeting (according to media reports), the following developments occurred: → It was stated that the current oil market is fundamentally healthy; → A decision was made to accelerate the pace of oil production increases. According to the plan, output will rise by 411,000 barrels per day — with some believing this move is partly due to certain OPEC+ countries previously failing to adhere to production quotas. Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart Oil price movements in 2025 form a descending channel (shown in red), with progressively lower highs and lows indicating bearish sentiment. Although bulls may hope that the lower boundary of the channel could act as support, bears are showing signs of dominance (as indicated by arrows): → the median line of the channel previously acted as resistance; → now, similar behaviour is seen at line Q, which divides the lower half of the channel into two quarters; → the Rounding Top pattern also signals strong selling pressure. Fundamentally, oil prices are supported by China’s willingness to negotiate tariffs with the US. However, considering the OPEC+ decision and ongoing fears of a global recession, the current downward channel on the Brent crude oil price chart is unlikely to lose relevance any time soon. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
Potential Decline of Brent Oil Price to $50 in the Near Future.Brief Overview of Events and News Explaining the Potential Decline of Brent Oil Price to $50 in the Near Future. ➖ Increased OPEC+ Production: On April 3, 2025, eight OPEC+ countries unexpectedly decided to accelerate production increases, adding 411,000 barrels per day starting in May. This decision triggered a price drop, with Brent falling 6.42% to $70.14 per barrel at the time. Analysts like Amrita Sen from Energy Aspects noted that this move pressures “lagging” countries to meet quotas, but the market interpreted it as an oversupply signal. Source: OilPrice.com, "OPEC+ to Raise Oil Production by More Than Expected in May," April 3, 2025 (oilprice.com) ➖ Decreased Demand Due to Economic Challenges: On April 14, 2025, OPEC revised its 2025 oil demand growth forecast downward by 150,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day, citing trade tensions and weak economic indicators. JPMorgan also raised the likelihood of a global recession to 60%. Source: OilPrice.com, "OPEC Lowers 2025 Oil Demand Forecast on Trade Tensions," April 14, 2025 (oilprice.com) ➖ Trade Tariffs and Global Instability: On April 3, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on trading partners, heightening recession fears. Fitch Ratings described this as the highest level of U.S. import tariffs since 1910. Brent dropped 4% immediately following the announcement. Source: OilPrice.com, "OPEC+ to Raise Oil Production by More Than Expected in May," April 3, 2025 (oilprice.com) ➖ Geopolitical De-escalation: On April 25, 2025, reports emerged of progress in U.S.-Russia talks on Ukraine, as well as Iran’s openness to nuclear negotiations. This reduces geopolitical risks and increases the likelihood of higher oil supply on the market. Source: OilPrice.com, "Oil Set For Weekly Loss on OPEC+ Supply Rumors," April 25, 2025 (oilprice.com) Technical Analysis Section: The monthly chart shows similarities between the 1999–2002 and 2020–2025 periods: an initial impulse, followed by a correction, and then a 6-year upward trend. Nearest entry point targets at the 161.8% Fibonacci level: • $52,46 • $49,06 • $46,50 Growth Potential Medium-term: • $138,00 Long-term: • $500,00 Once the price of oil UKOIL reaches $52.46, a review for the entry point will be prepared. Charts: • •
TVC:UKOILShort
by SergioRichi
Weekly Market Forecast WTI CRUDE OIL: Bearish! Wait For SellsThis forecast is for the week of April 21 - 25th. Oil has made a classic bearish impulse down, then a corrective retracement. The natural expectation is another impulse down. The fact that price pulled back into a W -FVG allows for this bearish expectation. Wait for a bearish break of market structure to confirm a valid sell setup... and trade accordingly. No confirmation, not trade! Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by RT_Money
2
Analysis of the BRENT chart with expectations for 2025-2026◽️Technically, all conditions for the completion of the second wave correction have been met, and now quotes can be safely reversed up. However, current events in the global economy do not yet provide grounds for confidently asserting this. Locally, the price may still be driven down to $50 per barrel and even slightly lower. One way or another, it is important to understand a simple thing: everything below $70 per barrel should be seen as an opportunity to buy oil and everything related to it cheaply. ◽️According to my estimates, there is probably still time for deliberation on purchases until the end of spring. But further, from the beginning of summer, I expect a sharp rise in prices amid the escalation in the Middle East. From above, in the $100-150 range, growth will likely be contained for some time, which will be interpreted as the formation of sub-waves (i)-(ii), where after sharp rise in the first sub-wave from approximately $50-60 to $120-130, a local correction will follow within the second sub-wave. ◽️The growth period may take 3-6 months, and the correction to it another 2-4 quarters, and then a breakout of the $120-150 resistance zone and further "to the moon" in the third waves is expected. 🙏 Thank you for your attention and 🚀 for the idea. ☘️ Good luck, take care! 📟 See you later.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by T_A_R_A_S
#BRENT Gold/Oil Ratio, Stocks/Oil RatioOn chart I tried to fit three instruments at once: 1️⃣ Bottom (white) chart: Gold to Oil Ratio. 2️⃣ Middle (red) chart: BRENT crude oil price. 3️⃣ Top (blue) chart: Dow Jones Industrial Average to Oil Price Ratio. 1️⃣ The first thing to pay attention to is the white chart: GOLD/OIL Ratio , specifically where this ratio is today. Over the last 75 years of observation, the ratio has reached unprecedented levels. The spread is once again testing the record values of the COVID-19 hysteria of 2020, when panic caused oil prices to plummet sharply. At the current moment, the ⚖️Gold to Oil Ratio is around the 50 mark, meaning that one ounce of gold can buy as much as 50 barrels of oil. Over the last century, when the spread exceeded 25 barrels per ounce, it was interpreted as a moment of cheap oil relative to gold. Today, against the backdrop of the chaos reigning in the world, the GOLD/OIL Ratio is entering what can be called the " MAGA Mega Cheap Oil Zone" if it is again valued in gold, and not in fiat green piece of paper. Further, we should expect at least a return to its average values, and here three scenarios are possible: 1. First Scenario. Let's assume that today's price of $60-70 per barrel of oil is "fair" and this is where it belongs. In this case, gold is currently strongly overvalued, and it's time for a correction from $3300 to the $2500-2800 range. 2. Second Scenario. Everything is fine with gold, and it will continue to rise without correction. In this case, oil is severely undervalued relative to gold, and it's time for it to catch up so that the spread of 50 returns to its average values in the 10-25 range. 3. Third Scenario suggests that both oil is significantly undervalued and gold has risen too sharply, and now it's time for a correction in gold and a rise in oil prices. In any of the three scenarios described above, the GOLD/OIL Ratio will sooner or later return to its normal values of the last century, that is, to the range of 10-25 barrels per ounce of gold. And most likely, we will see the third scenario unfold this year, where against the backdrop of a stock market crash, problems with liquidity in the global financial system, the entry of Western economies into recession, as well as the start of a full-scale war in the Middle East this summer, all of this together will provoke a correction in gold and an explosive growth in oil prices, and consequently, a return of the gold to oil ratio to its historical averages. 2️⃣ On the second (red) linear chart of BRENT crude oil prices , everything looks quite ordinary. If we briefly describe the chart for the last twenty years in simple terms, it's worth saying the following: since 2008, they have been trying in every possible way to keep the oil price below $130 per barrel, and as soon as the price approaches the $120-150 zone, some "invisible hand of the market" throws it down. The first test of this resistance zone occurred during the GFC global financial crisis of 2008, the second test with prolonged trading took place during the Eurozone debt crisis of 2011-2014 (culminating in the Greek default), and the third test was in 2022, as a consequence of the monetary madness of 2020 (global lockdown, unlimited QE, and as a result: a wave of monetary + structural inflation worldwide). One way or another, from the fourth or fifth time, the $120-150 per barrel boundary will be finally broken. And then the price above, like a samurai, "has no destination, only the path," and this path is upwards, "to the moon"🚀 3️⃣ Now it remains to consider the last (blue) chart at the top, the ⚖️Dow Jones Industrial Average to Oil Price Ratio . This chart should be understood as a long-term trend indicator of cycle changes in financial markets. When it rises, it implies a 10 or even 20-year growth cycle in the stock market, and accordingly, corrections in the commodity market. And when it falls, then vice versa, the cycle changes to growth in the commodities market and a correction in the risky stock market, which also lasts one or even two decades. Today, it can be said with certainty that since 2020, the cyclicality has changed, and we are just entering a ten or even twenty-year growth trend in the commodity sector, which portends a change from the "eternally" growing trend in the American stock market to a fall or at least a multi-year sideways movement a la the 1970s. 🙏 Thank you for your attention and 🚀 for the idea. ☘️ Good luck, take care! 📟 See you later.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by T_A_R_A_S
Brent Crude Price ConsolidatesBrent Crude Price Consolidates When analysing the Brent crude oil price chart six days ago, we: → identified a downward channel marked in red; → noted that the median line was acting as resistance; → suggested the price could find support at the lower boundary of the channel, reinforced by the psychological $60 per barrel level. As shown on the XBR/USD chart, since then: → the price has indeed rebounded from the lower boundary (as indicated by the arrow), rising from its lowest level in nearly four years; → the median line has reaffirmed its role as resistance (highlighted by the marker). Why Is Oil Consolidating? From a technical perspective, several indicators suggest the market is consolidating. Notably, both the ADX and ATR indicators are trending downwards, which may be interpreted as a weakening of price momentum and volatility. Additionally, Brent’s price currently hovers around the channel’s median line — a level where supply and demand often reach equilibrium. From a fundamental standpoint, it’s reasonable to assume that the current price has already factored in the latest developments surrounding the global trade war. However, another round of bold statements from the White House could still trigger a fresh move on the XBR/USD chart. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
Long Term Brent Outlook, $32 by 2026Weekly Brent has broken a clear barrier and formed a Bull Flag pattern, but the subsequent rally has been weak, not even reaching the breakout level. The global economy is showing signs of weakening, leading to a reduction in oil demand. Concurrently, Trump's move to lift US production restrictions is boosting oil supply. However, the slight depreciation of the dollar is providing upward pressure on oil prices. Given these factors, Brent remains relatively weak, and we may see a continued decline in line with Scenario 1, potentially targeting ML by 2026. Further downside is also likely. Given the current conditions, I consider shorting oil at any reasonable price on lower timeframes.
NYMEX:BZ1!Short
by mr.dmizer
1
Brent Crude Price Continues to FallBrent Crude Price Continues to Fall Today, the price of Brent crude has dropped below $60 per barrel, marking its lowest level since March 2021. As shown on the XBR/USD chart, from the start of 2025, the price saw a rise of around 2.6% at the end of March 2025. Why is oil falling? The key driver is the escalation of the trade war. Yesterday, the US President announced the imposition of additional tariffs on trade with China, bringing the total to 104%. The decline in Brent prices seems to reflect traders' concerns about the risks of a global recession. Oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 Yesterday, analysts at Goldman Sachs released their oil price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude. They expect prices to reach $62 per barrel for Brent and $58 for WTI by December 2025. By December 2026, they anticipate a further decline to $55 and $51, respectively. However, analysts caveat that these forecasts are based on the assumption that the US will avoid a recession and that OPEC+ countries will increase their supplies. In the event of a global economic slowdown, Brent prices could drop to $40 by the end of 2026. Technical analysis of the XBR/USD chart today The sharp decline in Brent prices has resulted in a forceful breach of key lows from 2024 and 2025 around the $68.68 level. Additionally, the XBR/USD chart shows that the price continues to follow a downward channel (indicated in red), with the following levels acting as resistance (marked by arrows): → The upper boundary of the channel; → Its median (previously acting as support) – indicating the dominance of supply forces. It is possible that the lower boundary of the channel, strengthened by the psychological level of $60.00, will provide support, slowing the bearish progress of Brent prices. However, the key factor will undoubtedly be the news flow, with sharp statements from the White House. Traders are focusing on how China will react to the 104% tariffs announced by Donald Trump. As Reuters reports, the President stated yesterday, "We have many countries coming to us wanting to make deals," adding that he expects China to also seek an agreement. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
1
"SPOT BRENT CRUDE OIL" Energy Market Heist Plan (Day Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "SPOT BRENT CRUDE OIL" Energy market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (71.200) then make your move - Bullish profits await!" however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level. 📌I strongly advise you to set an alert on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at the recent / nearest low level Using the 30mins timeframe (69.500) swing trade basis. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. 🏴‍☠️Target 🎯: 74.000 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 🛢️ "SPOT BRENT CRUDE OIL" Energy Market Heist Plan (Day Trade) is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors. 📰🗞️Read the Fundamental, Macro Economics, COT Report, Seasonal Factors, Intermarket Analysis, Inventory and Storage Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Future trend predict. Before start the heist plan read it.👉👉👉 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Thief_Trader
2
Brent Crude Oil Price Rises Above $71Brent Crude Oil Price Rises Above $71 Brent crude oil is trading above $71 per barrel today, marking its highest level since late February. As shown on the XBR/USD chart, the price surged by approximately 2.6% on the last day of March. Why Has Oil Risen? Bullish sentiment in the market is driven by the US President’s stance on Russia and Iran. According to Trading Economics: ➝ Trump has vowed to impose tariffs of 25–50% on buyers of Russian oil if he believes Moscow is obstructing his efforts to end the war in Ukraine. This could put pressure on key importers such as India and China. ➝ He has also threatened Iran with further tariffs and airstrikes until the country agrees to abandon its nuclear weapons programme. The rise in Brent crude prices appears to reflect traders’ concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supply chains. Technical Analysis of XBR/USD In early March, oil formed a bullish Double Bottom pattern (see the lows on 5 and 11 March), followed by an upward trend within a rising channel (marked in blue). Notably, the XBR/USD chart shows that the price: ➝ Has moved into the upper half of the channel. ➝ Broke through key resistance at around $70.25, a level that previously acted as support multiple times (as indicated by the arrows). As a result, the median of the channel, reinforced by the $70.25 level, may now serve as support, keeping Brent crude within the blue channel. However, market direction will likely depend on the news cycle, particularly sharp statements from the White House. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XTIUSD
by FXOpen
Brent Crude INTRADAY oversold bounce back The Brent Crude Oil price action remains bearish, in line with the prevailing downtrend. The recent move suggests an oversold bounce, but overall sentiment remains weak unless a significant breakout occurs. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance Levels: 74.25 (critical level), 74.90, 75.90 Support Levels: 71.70, 70.70, 69.13 Bearish Scenario: A rejection from the 74.25 resistance level could confirm the bearish outlook, leading to further downside movement toward 71.70, with extended losses targeting 70.70 and 69.13 in the longer timeframe. Bullish Scenario: A breakout above 74.25 with a daily close above this level would challenge the bearish sentiment, opening the door for further gains toward 74.90, followed by 75.90. Conclusion: The market sentiment remains bearish, with the 74.25 level acting as a key resistance zone. A rejection from this level could reinforce the downside trend, while a confirmed breakout would shift the outlook to bullish, favoring further upside. Traders should closely monitor price action at this critical level for confirmation. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:BRENT
by TradeNation
Crude Oil Prices: Double-Edged Sword for Indian Marketers The global crude oil market, a volatile beast, dictates the energy landscape for nations worldwide.1 For India, a nation heavily reliant on oil imports, the fluctuations in crude oil prices carry significant implications.2 While a dip in crude oil prices might seem like a welcome relief, especially for consumers, it presents a complex and often challenging scenario for oil marketing companies (OMCs) operating within the Indian market. This seemingly beneficial drop in prices acts as a double-edged sword, bringing with it a unique set of complexities that stem from market dynamics, government policies, and the intrinsic characteristics of the oil and gas sector.3 The initial and seemingly positive impact of lower crude oil prices is the potential for reduced import costs.4 For a country like India, where a substantial portion of its energy needs are met through imports, this can lead to a decrease in the overall expenditure on crude oil. This reduction can, in turn, alleviate pressure on the nation's current account deficit and theoretically translate to lower fuel prices for consumers. However, this potential benefit is often overshadowed by the ever-present threat of government intervention through excise duty hikes. Governments, seeking to bolster their revenue, often capitalize on falling crude oil prices by increasing excise duties on petrol and diesel.5 This strategic move allows them to capture a significant portion of the savings that would otherwise be passed on to consumers. For OMCs, this translates to a reduction in the potential for increased margins. While they still benefit from reduced raw material expenses, the extent of the gain is substantially diminished. This delicate dance between market forces and government policies creates a complex environment for OMCs to navigate. Furthermore, the expectation of price cuts for end consumers becomes a significant challenge for OMCs. Consumers naturally anticipate a corresponding reduction in fuel prices when crude oil prices decline. However, OMCs must carefully balance this expectation with the need to maintain their financial health. Rapid and substantial price cuts can strain their profitability, especially when coupled with excise duty adjustments. This balancing act requires a delicate approach, as OMCs must ensure their financial stability while remaining responsive to consumer demands. Beyond the immediate impact on OMCs, lower crude oil prices pose a significant challenge to the upstream oil and gas sector. Upstream companies, involved in exploration and production, are directly affected by the decline in realized prices for their crude oil. This can lead to reduced profitability, delayed or cancelled investment projects, and even financial distress for some companies. The economic viability of many oil and gas fields is contingent on a certain price threshold. When prices fall below this level, production becomes less attractive, potentially hindering future energy security. The impact on the gas sector is particularly noteworthy. Natural gas economics are often intertwined with crude oil prices, with gas prices sometimes linked to oil price benchmarks.6 A decline in crude oil prices can thus indirectly affect gas prices, making gas production and distribution less profitable. This can have broader implications for the energy sector, as natural gas is increasingly seen as a cleaner alternative to other fossil fuels.7 Reduced investment in gas infrastructure and production can hinder the transition towards a more sustainable energy mix. Moreover, the volatility associated with fluctuating crude oil prices creates uncertainty for OMCs and the entire energy sector.8 Long-term planning and investment decisions become more difficult when the market is subject to rapid and unpredictable price swings. This uncertainty can deter investment in new projects and hinder the development of a stable and reliable energy supply. This volatility necessitates a robust and adaptable strategy for OMCs to navigate the unpredictable market. From a macroeconomic perspective, while lower crude prices can potentially stimulate economic activity by reducing fuel costs for businesses and consumers, the potential for reduced government revenue due to lower oil prices (if excise duties are not increased) must be considered. In a country like India, where government revenue is crucial for funding infrastructure projects and social programs, a significant decline in oil-related revenue can have far-reaching consequences. This highlights the need for a balanced approach to fiscal policy, ensuring that government revenue remains stable while providing relief to consumers. The challenges posed by lower crude oil prices highlight the need for a balanced and nuanced approach to energy policy. Governments must strike a delicate balance between providing relief to consumers, maintaining fiscal stability, and supporting the long-term health of the oil and gas sector. This requires careful consideration of excise duty adjustments, pricing mechanisms, and investment incentives. A coherent and forward-looking energy policy is essential to navigate the complexities of the global crude oil market and ensure the nation's energy security. In conclusion, while lower crude oil prices may appear to be a boon, they present a complex set of challenges for OMCs and the broader Indian oil and gas sector. The potential for excise duty hikes, concerns about price cuts, and the impact on upstream realisations and gas economics create a double-edged sword scenario. Navigating this complex landscape requires careful policy decisions and a comprehensive understanding of the intricate dynamics of the global energy market. OMCs must remain adaptable and resilient, while governments must implement policies that balance consumer needs with fiscal stability and long-term energy security.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by bryandowningqln
Brent Crude Price Breaks Key Support LevelBrent Crude Price Breaks Key Support Level Today, Brent crude is sliding towards the psychological $70 per barrel mark, with the XBR/USD chart showing a break below a key support level (marked in blue) that had been holding since autumn last year. Why Is Brent Crude Falling? The bearish sentiment in the market is driven by OPEC+’s decision to increase oil production, contrary to analysts’ expectations that existing output cuts—designed to support prices—would remain in place. According to the Wall Street Journal, analysts now predict: → Oil production will rise by 137,000 barrels per day from April 2025 to September 2026. → Brent crude may drop below $70 per barrel. Technical Analysis of XBR/USD From a long-term perspective, Brent crude is forming a descending channel (marked in red), connecting the April and July 2024 peaks. The break below this support level could signal a renewed downtrend following a prolonged period of consolidation. If XBR/USD sees a short-term recovery from its yearly lows, key resistance levels to watch include: → The midline of the descending channel. → The former support level (marked in blue). Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
1
BRENT weaker after inventories and tariffs expectationsThe BRENT Crude (Brent Crude) price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend. The key trading level is at 7444, 13th and 24th February swing low level. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 7444 level could target the downside support at 7245 followed by 7134 and 7050levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 7444 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 7530 resistance followed by 7640 levels. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:BRENT
by TradeNation
UKOIL (Brent Crude)UKOIL (Brent Crude) has recently tested a strong support level at $73.80, where buying pressure has prevented further declines. This level has historically acted as a significant price floor, indicating a potential reversal or continuation of bullish momentum. Bullish Scenario: As long as UKOIL remains above $73.80, we can expect an upward move toward the next resistance levels. The first key resistance is at $74.70, a level where sellers have previously shown interest. If price action remains strong, the next upside target would be $75.30. Bearish Scenario: If UKOIL fails to hold $73.80 and breaks below this level, it may signal a further decline.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_BRENTLong
by Pipsview_Analysis
BRENT Crude The Week Ahead 17 Feb 25 The BRENT Crude (Brent Crude) price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend. The key trading level is at 7685, 20 Day Moving Average level. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 7685 level could target the downside support at 7400 followed by 7300 and 7225 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 7685 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 7780 resistance followed by 7840 levels. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:BRENT
by TradeNation
BRENT - Intraday forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast: While the price is above the support 68.485, beginning of uptrend is expected. We make sure when the resistance at 81.651 breaks. If the support at 68.485 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of uptrend- will be invalid. Technical analysis: A peak is formed in daily chart at 81.735 on 01/15/2025, so more losses to support(s) 73.868, 71.698, 70.505 and minimum to Major Support (68.485) is expected. Take Profits: 75.270 77.558 79.049 81.651 84.161 87.271 91.613 95.108 98.908 103.260 106.431 115.785 123.265 131.000 __________________________________________ ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView, . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 BOOST button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! 🙏 Your Support is appreciated! Let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Have a successful week, ForecastCity Support Team
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by ForecastCity
20
Brent Oil Price Drops from 2025 HighBrent Oil Price Drops from 2025 High If you follow FXOpen’s publications, you may recall how in 2024, we repeatedly analysed the XBR/USD chart and drew several key parallel lines. For example, in our publication at the end of November. This is significant because the uppermost of the three lines drawn last year acted as resistance, where the current peak of 2025 was formed, as shown by the arrow. Price fluctuations in the context of these three lines can be interpreted as follows: → The middle line suggests the zone where the fair value of a barrel is likely to be. This is supported by the fact that at the beginning of 2025, the price consolidated near the middle line around the $76 mark; → The rise to the upper line indicated an overbought market condition. Subsequently, like a pendulum, the price of Brent oil began to move in the opposite direction – down towards the middle line, where the fair value is presumably located. The current dominance of sellers is supported by: → Trump’s intentions to develop new oil fields, increase exports, and move away from the “green transition”; → A reduction in geopolitical tensions – notably, the ceasefire and prisoner exchanges between Israel and Hamas. It is possible that the sellers’ momentum will continue, as the revival of the US economy through cheap oil may be part of the strategic plans of the new team in the White House, which would drive the trend towards the middle line on the XBR/USD chart. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
2
Brent Oil Price Retreats from a 3-Month HighBrent Oil Price Retreats from a 3-Month High On January 6, while analysing the XBR/USD chart, we: → constructed an upward structure using blue trend lines; → highlighted the potential for a pullback after the formation of peaks A and B around the $76.20 level. What happened next? As shown on the XBR/USD chart, Brent oil prices retreated on January 8 to the lower blue line (point C), where bulls successfully resumed the uptrend, pushing the price close to $81—a level last seen in early October 2024, near a key peak (not shown on the chart). According to The Wall Street Journal: → Demand was supported by sanctions imposed by the outgoing Biden administration on Russia’s oil industry. → Jonathan Ng, an OCBC Asean economist, noted that the price range of $78–83 appears to be a “relatively comfortable zone” for Brent oil in the near term. From a technical analysis perspective, the XBR/USD chart displays price action resembling a rounding top pattern. Therefore, it’s possible that after the bullish momentum triggered by the sanctions, another pullback towards the blue channel could occur in the short term. Going forward, much will depend on the political and trade policies adopted by the incoming Trump administration. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
2