Bitcoin at a Crossroads as Macro Data Fail to Spark a BreakoutBTC has pulled back toward $63K after an earlier attempt to break toward $64K, bringing it back near the lower end of its recent range. There is no single crypto-specific catalyst driving the move. Instead, Bitcoin is dealing with several cross market pressures, including geopolitical tensions, higher oil prices, uncertainty around global liquidity, and a lack of strong follow-through from otherwise supportive US economic data
That distinction is becoming increasingly important. Last week, BTC showed strong resilience by absorbing several negative headlines without breaking down. This week, however, that resilience has not translated into momentum.. The trading range remains intact, while softer inflation data have produced only a limited reaction from crypto markets
For now, the $62.5K-$63K area remains an important support zone at the bottom of the current range. Whether Bitcoin can maintain this structure will likely depend on the interaction between upcoming macroeconomic data, liquidity conditions and crypto specific capital flows rather than one isolated catalyst
Inflation Cools, But BTC Remains Rangebound
US inflation data this week offered further evidence that price pressures are easing. July headline CPI declined to 3.4% year over year from 3.5% in June, while core CPI fell to 2.5% from 2.6%. Producer inflation was also weaker than expected, with headline PPI unchanged in July compared with expectations for a 0.2% increase, following a 0.3% decline in June
The inflation reports followed a notably weaker July jobs report, which showed a 23K decline in nonfarm payrolls along with downward revisions to the previous two months. Taken together, these releases have lowered expectations for an immediate tightening in monetary policy, although inflation is still above the Federal Reserve's longer-term target.
Despite this backdrop, BTC's reaction has been relatively muted. Rather than viewing this as a clear bearish signal, the divergence highlights how positioning, liquidity and overall risk appetite are currently playing a major role in determining how macroeconomic developments affect crypto prices.
Markets will now turn their attention to July PCE data on August 26 and the September FOMC meeting. Investors will be watching whether cooling inflation can continue alongside enough economic strength to keep financial conditions stable
US Crypto Policy Moves on Two Fronts
US digital-asset policy is increasingly progressing through two separate channels. On the legislative side, Senate consideration of the CLARITY Act is expected to resume after the August recess. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has indicated that the bill could return to the floor in September, although disagreements involving ethics provisions and banking issues remain unresolved.
Meanwhile, regulatory development is continuing independently of Congress. The SEC's 2026 agenda includes additional work related to crypto-asset capital raising and tokenized securities, while the Commission has already taken steps this year toward establishing a framework for tokenized securities trading.
This distinction matters because delays in comprehensive legislation do not necessarily mean regulatory progress has stopped. Parts of the broader framework can continue developing through agency rulemaking, guidance and existing statutory authority.
Strategy Creates Two-Way BTC Flow Risk
Corporate treasury activity remains an important factor for Bitcoin's supply and demand dynamics. Strategy recently disclosed the sale of another 1,690 BTC for approximately $109 million, with the proceeds used to fund preferred-stock repurchases. The company also raised around $653 million through common-stock issuance to strengthen its US dollar reserves
These moves follow Strategy's introduction of its BTC Monetization Program earlier this summer, which allows the company to sell Bitcoin when needed to support dollar reserves and other balance-sheet requirements. JPMorgan has highlighted the resulting "two way" flow risk, as Strategy can potentially become either a major buyer or seller depending on its financing needs
This does not necessarily make corporate treasuries a consistent source of Bitcoin supply. However, their impact on the market is becoming more conditional than earlier in the cycle. Investors now need to consider not only how much Bitcoin companies are buying, but also their liquidity, financing conditions and policies regarding potential sales
Hormuz Uncertainty Keeps Oil Elevated
Geopolitical risk remains another source of pressure across financial markets. Oman-led discussions regarding commercial passage through the Strait of Hormuz are continuing, with Qatar and Pakistan also involved in the broader US-Iran mediation process. While progress has been made toward potential shipping arrangements, a full and lasting reopening has not yet been secured
Oil markets continue to reflect that uncertainty. Brent crude was trading near $88 on Friday morning and was heading toward a significant weekly gain as restricted shipping through Hormuz and the lack of a durable agreement maintained a geopolitical risk premium
For Bitcoin, the main transmission channel is macroeconomic rather than direct. Higher energy prices can push up headline inflation, influence inflation expectations and put upward pressure on longer-term yields, potentially tightening financial conditions for liquidity-sensitive assets
Until shipping conditions through Hormuz normalize more consistently, the region will remain relevant to crypto mainly through its impact on oil prices, interest rates and global liquidity.
Seasonality Provides Context, Not a Signal
Historical seasonality also offers some useful context for Bitcoin's current price action. According to Bespoke Investment Group, BTC has historically produced a median August return of around -7.5%, with positive returns occurring in roughly 30% of observations. September has also traditionally been a weaker month, with a median decline of approximately 5.3%. Bitcoin posted negative August returns in every year from 2022 through 2025.
However, historical patterns should not be treated as forecasts, especially as Bitcoin's market structure has changed significantly with the growth of ETFs and institutional participation. Seasonality can still provide context during periods of thinner late-summer liquidity, when lower activity can make markets more sensitive to positioning.
The key question is therefore not whether history will repeat itself, but whether Bitcoin can maintain its current range as the market moves through a historically quieter period.
Resilient, But Still Lacking Momentum
Bitcoin is not being driven by one dominant bearish catalyst. Instead, the market is balancing several competing factors, including softer US inflation, weaker employment data, elevated oil prices, evolving crypto regulation and more conditional corporate treasury flows
The broader picture remains similar to last week's setup. BTC has shown an ability to absorb negative developments without experiencing a sustained breakdown, but improving macro conditions have not yet translated into persistent upside momentum
A decisive move outside the current range would likely provide a much clearer signal than the intraday fluctuations we have seen recently. Until that happens, resilience remains Bitcoin's defining characteristic, but momentum is still missing.
Key Events
19 Aug: FOMC Minutes
26 Aug: US July PCE, Q2 GDP Second Estimate
27-29 Aug: Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium
15-16 Sep: FOMC Meeting BTC/USDT – Detailed Professional Technical Analysis 🚀 BTC/USDT – Detailed Professional Technical Analysis 📊🔥
⏱️ Timeframe: 2H | Current Price: ~62,681 USDT
🧭 1. Overall Market Structure
BTC has recently experienced a strong bearish phase, visible through the descending trend channel and repeated lower highs. However, the market has now shown signs of a potential structural transition.
The marked CHoCH (Change of Character) around the 62.5K–62.7K region is important because it suggests that sellers may be losing control and buyers are attempting to establish a new short-term bullish structure. 📈
At the moment, price is reacting directly from this key demand/support area, making the next few candles important for confirmation.
🟢 2. Bullish Scenario
The main bullish idea is based on BTC holding the current demand zone.
Price could first perform a liquidity sweep below the current support, potentially reaching the 62,000–61,600 area, before buyers step in aggressively.
If BTC sweeps the lows and then reclaims the support zone with strong bullish candles, this would provide stronger confirmation for a continuation toward the upside. 🔄🔥
🎯 3. Upside Targets
TP1 – 64,432
The first important upside objective is around 64.4K, where price may face initial selling pressure.
TP2 – 64,800–65,200
This area contains the marked Order Block, making it a major reaction zone. A clean breakout above this region would strengthen the bullish scenario significantly. 🚀
TP3 – 66,948
The major resistance near 66.95K is the higher-timeframe target. This level could become a strong profit-taking area if BTC manages to sustain bullish momentum.
🧱 4. Key Resistance
The 65,000–65,200 zone is particularly important.
This area previously acted as a supply/order-block region. Therefore, BTC may experience rejection here before attempting another breakout.
A strong 2H close above this zone would indicate that buyers are gaining considerably more control. 📈
🛡️ 5. Important Support & Invalidation
The current demand area around 62.5K–62.7K is the immediate level to watch.
Below that, 61,612 is the key downside invalidation area shown on the chart.
The larger structural support is around 61,291. A decisive break and close below this level would significantly weaken the bullish setup and could open the door for another bearish leg. 🔴
🧠 6. Possible Price Path
The projected path on the chart suggests:
Liquidity Sweep 🔻
⬇️
61.6K–62K Demand Zone
⬇️
Bullish Reclaim 🔄
⬆️
64.4K 🎯
⬆️
64.8K–65.2K Order Block 🎯
⬆️
66.95K Major Resistance 🚀
This means the market does not necessarily need to move directly upward. A temporary dip to collect liquidity before the bullish expansion would still fit the overall setup.
📊 7. Trading Bias
🟢 Short-Term Bias: Bullish recovery
🟢 Structure: Potential bullish CHoCH
🟢 Demand: 62.5K–62.7K
🟡 Confirmation: Bullish reclaim after liquidity sweep
🔴 Invalidation: Below 61.6K / major support 61.29K
🎯 Targets: 64.43K → 65.2K → 66.95K
🔥 Final Outlook
BTC is currently sitting at a critical decision zone. The bearish momentum has weakened, while the CHoCH and reaction from demand suggest that buyers may be preparing for a recovery.
However, confirmation is essential. The strongest setup would be a liquidity grab below support followed by a bullish reclaim and continuation above 64.4K.
If BTC successfully breaks and holds above the 65K–65.2K Order Block, the path toward 66.95K resistance becomes much more attractive. 🚀📈
⚠️ Risk Management: Avoid entering solely because price is inside the zone. Wait for confirmation and keep risk controlled, especially around the 61.6K–61.3K invalidation region.
🧠 Bottom Line:
BTC is at a key demand + CHoCH area. A confirmed bullish reaction can target 64.4K, then 65.2K and potentially 66.95K. Patience + confirmation = better setup. 🎯🔥 
Long
Short 
Short 
Long 
Long 
BTC/USD Bullish Setup – Target 66,800Chart ka overall bias bullish hai. Price strong support zone 64,250–64,500 ke upar hold kar raha hai aur structure higher highs / higher lows bana raha hai.
Buy Setup:
Entry zone: 64,700–64,950
Confirmation: 65,200–65,300 ke upar 1H candle close
TP1: 65,750
TP2: 66,300
Main Target: 66,800–66,870
Stop Loss: 64,080
Important: 65,200–65,800 area mein volume resistance hai, isliye yahan temporary rejection aa sakti hai. Agar price 64,250 ke neeche 1H close kare, bullish setup weak/invalidate ho jayega. Long 
BTC/USD: Channel Breakdown & Retest | Targeting SSL Target ?Trade Setup: Bearish Rejection at Supply Zone (SMC Setup)
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on the 1H timeframe is showing clear signs of potential bearish continuation after a breakdown from an ascending channel structure.
Key Technical Observations:
Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) Swept: The recent rally to the $65,000 mark successfully cleared buy-side liquidity, creating a local top.
Ascending Channel Breakdown: Price action broke out of the rising channel structure, signaling loss of bullish momentum.
Supply Zone Retest: BTC is currently pulling back to retest the newly formed Supply Zone ($64,600 - $64,750).
Market Structure Alignment: Prior price action established key levels via previous Liquidity Sweeps, CHOCH, and MSS, setting up this distribution phase.
Trade Execution Plan:
Bias: Bearish / Short
Entry Zone: $64,500 – $64,750 (Inside the Supply Zone)
Target (TP): $63,750 (Sell-Side Liquidity / Support Level)
Stop Loss (SL): Above the BSL / Local High (~$65,100+) Short 
BTC/USD Technical Analysis (2H)📊 BTC/USD Technical Analysis (2H) – Bullish Reversal Setup from Demand Zone 🚀
🧠 Market Overview
BTC/USD is currently trading inside a well-defined bearish market structure, respecting a descending trendline after making lower highs and lower lows. The recent sharp sell-off has pushed price into a strong Order Block (OB) and major Support zone, where buyers have reacted before.
This area is likely to determine the next directional move.
📉 Current Market Structure
🔻 Overall trend remains bearish below the descending trendline.
📉 Price has completed another impulsive decline into demand.
🏦 The marked Order Block (OB) aligns with historical support, increasing the probability of institutional buying.
⚠️ A previous CHoCH (Change of Character) level is nearby and may act as the first confirmation level for buyers.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
If BTC successfully holds the current support zone:
✅ Buyers could absorb selling pressure.
✅ A liquidity sweep below support is possible before reversal.
✅ Price may begin forming higher lows.
✅ A breakout above the descending trendline would confirm bullish momentum.
🎯 Bullish Targets
🎯 TP1: 64,000
🎯 TP2: 65,200
🎯 TP3: 66,800 – 66,900 (Major Resistance)
A confirmed breakout above the trendline could trigger a stronger recovery toward the upper resistance zone.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
If the Order Block fails to hold:
❌ BTC may break below 61,750 Support.
📉 This would invalidate the current bullish recovery idea and open the door for further downside, with sellers maintaining full control.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
🟢 Support: 61,750 – 62,200
🏦 Order Block: 61,800 – 62,300
⚡ Immediate Resistance: 64,000
📉 Downtrend Resistance: Descending Trendline
🚧 Major Resistance: 66,800 – 66,900
📈 Trading Bias
🟡 Short-Term Bias: Cautiously Bullish from Support
✅ Wait for bullish confirmation before entering long positions.
⚠️ A clean break above the descending trendline would significantly strengthen the bullish outlook, while losing the support zone would shift momentum back in favor of the bears.
💡 Conclusion: BTC is testing a high-probability demand zone where a rebound is possible. The support area is the key decision point—hold above it and a trendline breakout could lead to a recovery toward 64K–66.9K. A breakdown below support would invalidate the bullish setup. Long 
Trading Roadmap | Wave Analysis · Lesson 05 — Wave PersonalityLesson 5 - Wave Personality
Difficulty: (Intermediate)
The three rules tell you whether a count is allowed. They cannot tell you whether it feels right. Each wave in an Elliott sequence tends to carry its own character — its own sentiment, its own participation, its own way of moving — and learning that character is often what turns a count from guesswork into something you can read.
The same five-wave structure, labeled by character instead of by number. Doubt, disbelief, recognition, complacency, enthusiasm — the sequence repeats often enough across markets and timeframes to be worth recognising.
🔵 QUICK RECAP FROM LESSON 4
Three rules define whether an impulse count is valid: Wave 2 stays inside Wave 1's origin, Wave 3 is not the shortest of the motive legs, and Wave 4 stays clear of Wave 1's territory.
Those are pass-or-fail tests. This lesson adds the softer layer on top of them — the one that helps you choose between two counts that both pass.
🔵 1. WHAT "PERSONALITY" MEANS
Elliott's original observation was not only about shape. It was that each wave tends to form under a different emotional backdrop, and that the backdrop leaves a footprint on the chart: in the size of the candles, in the volume, in how momentum behaves.
Personality is a guideline layer , not a rule layer. A wave that behaves out of character does not invalidate a count — but it is a signal worth noticing.
- Rules answer: is this count permitted?
- Personality answers: does this count look like what it claims to be?
- When two valid counts compete, personality is often the tie-breaker
🐳 Pro Tip: Never use personality to override a broken rule. Use it to rank counts that all remain valid.
🔵 2. WAVE 1 — THE MOVE NOBODY TRUSTS
Wave 1 usually begins while the previous trend still dominates the conversation. Sentiment is generally still negative at the bottom (or still positive at a top), and the move is commonly read as a bounce inside the old trend rather than the start of a new one.
- Participation is often modest — the move can look unimpressive relative to what follows
- News flow tends to lag; the story has not changed yet
- Wave 1 is frequently only identifiable in hindsight, after Wave 2 holds
This is the wave that is hardest to trade in real time, and there is no way around that. It is normal for a Wave 1 to be labeled only once Wave 3 is already underway.
🐳 Pro Tip: If you find yourself confidently labeling a Wave 1 the moment it starts, you are probably labeling a bounce. Waiting for the Wave 2 to hold costs you some of the move but removes a lot of guesswork.
🔵 3. WAVE 2 — DISBELIEF AND THE DEEP PULLBACK
Wave 2 tends to be sharp and emotionally convincing. It commonly retraces a large share of Wave 1 — 50%, 61.8%, sometimes 78.6% — and by the time it ends, most of the market has concluded the old trend never stopped.
- Volume often contracts as the pullback matures
- Sentiment typically returns to where it was before Wave 1 started
- The structure is usually a zigzag — sharp rather than sideways
A deep Wave 2 that retraced most of Wave 1 and still held above the origin of Wave 1 — the level that would have invalidated the count. Note how the pullback looks like trend continuation while it is happening — that is characteristic, not accidental.
🐳 Pro Tip: A Wave 2 that barely pulls back is worth a second look. Shallow second waves happen, but they are less typical, and a shallow retracement can sometimes mean you are actually inside a Wave 3 of a smaller degree.
🔵 4. WAVE 3 — RECOGNITION
Wave 3 is where the market catches up. Participation usually broadens, volatility expands, and the move often extends well beyond what Wave 1 covered.
- Volume commonly reaches its highest level of the entire sequence here
- Gaps and large-bodied candles appear more often in Wave 3 than elsewhere
- Wave 3 is frequently the extended wave, often reaching 1.618 of Wave 1 or more
- Pullbacks inside Wave 3 tend to be shallow, and can be frustrating for anyone waiting for a cleaner entry
The volume panel tells the story that the price labels only imply. Activity expanded through Wave 3 and faded through the correction that followed — a pattern that shows up often enough to be a useful sanity check on a count.
🐳 Pro Tip: If the leg you have labeled Wave 3 shows less participation than Wave 1, the count may need re-examining. It does not break any rule, but it is out of character.
🔵 5. WAVE 4 — COMPLACENCY
Wave 4 is usually the most frustrating part of the sequence. After the expansion of Wave 3, price commonly moves sideways rather than sharply, and it can consume far more time than its size suggests.
- Flats and triangles appear more often here than in Wave 2
- Volatility and volume typically contract
- The guideline of alternation applies: when Wave 2 is sharp, Wave 4 tends to be sideways, and vice versa
Alternation in one frame. Wave 2 on the left resolved in hours as a tight vertical drop; Wave 4 on the right spent days grinding sideways inside a range. Two corrections in the same impulse, behaving in completely different ways. The dashed line marks the Wave 1 high — Wave 4 stayed clear of it throughout, so the count from Lesson 4 still holds.
🐳 Pro Tip: Wave 4 often ends near the territory of the fourth wave of one smaller degree inside Wave 3. It is a rough zone rather than a precise level, but it can help you frame where a Wave 4 may be finishing.
🔵 6. WAVE 5 — ENTHUSIASM WITHOUT BREADTH
Wave 5 usually makes a new extreme, but frequently does so with less force behind it than Wave 3 had. Sentiment is commonly at its most confident precisely when participation is thinning.
- Momentum divergence between Wave 3 and Wave 5 is one of the more common characteristics of this wave
- Volume often stays below the Wave 3 peak
- Wave 5 can extend — that is permitted, and Lesson 7 covers extensions in detail
Price made a higher high into Wave 5 while momentum did not follow. Divergence is not a timing tool on its own, but when it lines up with a completed count it adds context that the price labels alone do not provide.
🐳 Pro Tip: Divergence by itself signals very little — it can persist for a long time. It becomes more useful when a count is already complete and the three rules still hold.
🔵 7. THE CORRECTION — A, B AND C
Corrections carry personality too, and the three legs are quite different from each other.
- Wave A is commonly mistaken for a routine pullback inside the old trend. Sentiment is usually still aligned with the previous direction
- Wave B is typically the weakest leg — low participation, unconvincing structure, and it often traps traders expecting the trend to resume
- Wave C tends to behave like a Wave 3 in the opposite direction: broad, decisive, and the point where sentiment finally flips
🐳 Pro Tip: When a rally shows unusually weak volume and a messy internal structure, treating it as a possible Wave B rather than a trend resumption is often the more cautious read.
🔵 8. USING PERSONALITY IN PRACTICE
Personality tends to be most useful as a filter applied after the rules, rather than as a standalone method.
1. Check the three rules first — discard anything that fails
2. Compare the surviving counts against the expected character of each wave
3. Prefer the count where the most waves behave as they typically would
4. Keep the invalidation levels from Lesson 4 on the chart regardless
It is common to find waves that behave out of character inside a count that remains entirely valid. That is normal. Personality shifts the odds between interpretations — it does not decide them.
🔵 COMMON MISTAKES
- Treating personality guidelines as if they were rules, and discarding valid counts over them
- Labeling a leg Wave 3 purely because it is large, without checking participation
- Expecting every Wave 4 to be sideways, when alternation only makes it more likely
- Reading momentum divergence as a reversal signal on its own
- Forcing a Wave 5 label when the structure is still building
🔵 QUICK SELF-CHECK
- Describe the sentiment backdrop of each wave from 1 to 5 in one sentence each
- Explain why Wave 2 and Wave 4 rarely take the same shape
- Open a chart with a completed impulse and check whether volume peaked in Wave 3
- Find one correction and identify which leg was the weakest
🔵 WHAT IS NEXT
Lesson 6 — Fibonacci with Elliott: we bring the two frameworks together. Which retracement levels tend to matter for Wave 2 and Wave 4, which extensions are commonly used to project Wave 3 and Wave 5, and how to keep the tool from turning into a level-hunting exercise.
Drop a comment: which wave do you find hardest to identify in real time — and why?
Full Trading Roadmap | Wave Analysis Course
Trading Roadmap | Wave Analysis · Lesson 01 — Wave Analysis Foundations
Trading Roadmap | Wave Analysis · Lesson 02 — Impulse Waves (5-Wave Structure)
Trading Roadmap | Wave Analysis · Lesson 03 — Corrective Waves (A-B-C)
Trading Roadmap | Wave Analysis · Lesson 04 — The Rules of Elliott
Best Regards, BigBeluga 🐳 Education 
BTC/USD Technical Analysis (2H)📊🪙 BTC/USD Technical Analysis (2H) – Bearish Retracement Before the Next Move? ⚠️
🌍 Market Overview
BTC/USD is currently trading around 64,050, where price has recovered from the recent support area but is now approaching a key reaction zone. The market is printing a series of higher lows, showing short-term bullish momentum, but buyers are running into a strong resistance overhead.
At this stage, Bitcoin appears to be forming a corrective rally inside a broader range, with sellers likely waiting near resistance to regain control.
📈 Technical Structure
🟢 Short-Term Trend
Price has rebounded strongly from the 62,200 support zone.
Consecutive higher lows indicate improving bullish momentum.
However, buying pressure is slowing as price reaches a supply area.
🔴 Major Resistance
Resistance: 65,676
This level has previously acted as a rejection zone and aligns with market structure resistance.
A clean breakout and close above this level would invalidate the immediate bearish outlook and expose the higher liquidity zone around 66,500–66,800.
🏦 Order Block (OB)
The highlighted Order Block near 62,500–62,700 remains the strongest demand area on the chart.
If sellers reject price from resistance, this zone becomes the most likely destination for a healthy pullback.
📉 Bearish Scenario
The projected path suggests:
⬆️ Price may make one final push toward 64,500–64,800.
❌ Buyers fail to break 65,676.
🔻 Selling pressure increases.
🎯 Price retraces into the bullish Order Block around 62,500.
This would represent a normal correction while keeping the broader structure intact.
🚀 Bullish Scenario
For buyers to regain full control:
✅ Break above 65,676
✅ Close above resistance with strong volume
✅ Turn resistance into support
If this happens, Bitcoin could target the 66,500–66,800 liquidity zone.
🎯 Key Levels
🔴 Resistance: 65,676
🟢 Support: 62,212
🏦 Order Block: 62,500–62,700
🎯 Bullish Target: 66,500–66,800
🎯 Bearish Target: 62,500–62,700
🧠 Trading Outlook
The current rally looks more like a retracement toward resistance than the beginning of a sustained uptrend. Unless Bitcoin decisively breaks 65,676, the probability favors a rejection and a move back into the marked Order Block.
⚠️ Wait for confirmation before entering trades. Risk management is essential, and this analysis is for educational purposes—not financial advice. Short 
Long 
BTC/USD: Demand Zone Retest Before Bullish Expansion to $64,750 BTC/USD: Long Opportunity from Demand Zone Retest
Market Overview:
Bitcoin ( BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ) on the 1-Hour timeframe presents a compelling long setup as price action consolidates following a strong recovery from the lower $62,600 support region.
After completing a Head & Shoulders pattern and an upward channel break earlier in the week, price established a firm higher-low structural trendline. We are now observing consolidation right below local resistance.
Technical Breakdown:
Current Price Action: Hovering near $64,450, under immediate resistance.
Key Demand Zone: $63,800 – $64,150 (Purple Support Box).
Resistance / Target: $64,650 – $64,750.
Trade Plan:
Strategy: Wait for price to pull back into the Demand Zone ($63,800 – $64,150) to fill orders and sweep liquidity. Look for bullish confirmation candles (hammer, bullish engulfing, or lower timeframe market structure shift) within this box.
Entry: Near $63,900 – $64,100 (inside the Demand Zone).
Target (TP): $64,650 – $64,750 (Resistance Line).
Invalidation / Stop Loss (SL): Below $63,500 (A breakdown below the SMC trendline invalidates this bullish outlook). Long 
Short 
BTC/USD Technical Analysis🚀 BTC/USD Technical Analysis – Bearish Correction Before the Next Major Move? 📉🧠
Bitcoin is currently trading inside a high-timeframe premium zone after a strong bullish expansion. The chart shows multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) confirming the previous uptrend, but price is now losing momentum beneath a significant resistance area. The recent rejection from the 66,910 resistance suggests sellers are becoming more active, increasing the probability of a deeper correction before the next bullish continuation.
📊 Market Structure Overview
✅ Higher Time Frame structure remains Bullish
⚠️ Short-term momentum has shifted Bearish
📌 Price is trading below a key supply/resistance area
📉 Recent candles show weakening buying pressure after the latest rally
🟨 Price is reacting around an important Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The previous impulsive move created multiple imbalance zones, and the market often revisits these areas before establishing the next directional trend.
🟡 Key Technical Zones
🔴 Resistance Zone
66,700 – 66,910
Strong selling pressure previously entered here.
A clean breakout above this level would invalidate the short-term bearish outlook.
🟠 Supply Zone
65,700 – 66,000
Immediate resistance.
Sellers may defend this area if price attempts a retracement.
🟨 Fair Value Gap (FVG)
64,300 – 65,000
Price is currently interacting with this imbalance.
Failure to reclaim the upper boundary increases the probability of further downside.
🟢 Major Demand Zone
62,700 – 62,900
Primary liquidity target.
Strong buying interest could emerge from this region.
This is the most important support shown on the chart.
🔵 Long-Term Support
61,700 – 62,100
Last major demand before a larger bullish trend becomes threatened.
🎯 Trading Plan
📉 Bearish Scenario (Preferred)
🔻 Entry: Rejection below 65,600 – 65,900
🛑 Stop Loss: Above 66,100
🎯 Take Profit Targets
✅ TP1: 64,300
✅ TP2: 63,600
✅ TP3: 62,800 (Demand Zone)
📈 Bullish Scenario
If buyers reclaim 66,000 with strong bullish volume:
🎯 TP1: 66,500
🎯 TP2: 66,910
🎯 TP3: New swing highs above resistance.
🧠 Technical Outlook
The overall market structure still favors bulls on the higher timeframe, but the current price action suggests Bitcoin may first complete a healthy correction by filling nearby imbalances and revisiting the demand zone. Such a pullback would strengthen the broader uptrend and provide a more sustainable foundation for the next bullish leg.
Until buyers reclaim the supply zone with conviction, traders should remain cautious and monitor price reactions around the highlighted FVG and demand areas. A confirmed rejection from resistance could accelerate the move toward the 62.8K demand zone, while a breakout above 66.9K would restore full bullish momentum.
⚠️ Risk Management: Always wait for confirmation before entering a trade. Never risk more than 1–2% of your capital on a single position, and adjust your stop loss according to market volatility. 📊 Short 
Short 
BTC/USD Technical Analysis (4H) – Bearish Retracement Before the🪙 BTC/USD Technical Analysis (4H) – Bearish Retracement Before the Next Drop 📉🔥
Bitcoin has experienced a strong rejection from the major resistance zone near 66,900, where sellers stepped in aggressively and halted the previous bullish momentum. The rejection occurred close to the upper boundary of the long-term bullish trendline, indicating that buyers failed to maintain control at higher prices.
Following this rejection, the market formed a sharp bearish impulse, breaking below the short-term ascending structure and shifting momentum in favor of the bears. This move confirms that profit-taking and institutional selling pressure are currently dominating the market.
📊 Market Structure
The overall trend remains corrective bearish in the short term. Price has broken down from its recent higher-high structure and is now trading below previous support, which has turned into resistance.
Although the larger market structure is still within a broader bullish channel, the current price action suggests that Bitcoin is undergoing a healthy retracement before determining its next major direction.
🔴 Key Resistance Zone (Order Block)
The highlighted Order Block between approximately 64,500 and 64,900 is the most important resistance area.
This zone previously acted as institutional supply, and after the recent bearish breakdown, it is expected to attract sellers once again.
If price retraces into this area and prints bearish confirmation (rejection candles, bearish engulfing, or lower highs), it could offer a high-probability continuation setup.
⚡ Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The chart also shows an unfilled Fair Value Gap (FVG) around 63,700–64,300.
Price often revisits these imbalance zones before continuing in the direction of the dominant trend. A move into this FVG would help rebalance market inefficiencies and potentially provide liquidity for sellers.
A retracement into the FVG followed by rejection would strengthen the bearish scenario.
📉 Bearish Scenario
If sellers defend the FVG and Order Block successfully:
🎯 Target 1: 62,500
🎯 Target 2: 61,800
🎯 Target 3: 61,000
These levels align with previous demand areas where buyers may attempt to regain control.
🟢 Bullish Invalidation
The bearish outlook would become weaker if Bitcoin closes strongly above 64,900 and reclaims the Order Block.
Such a move would indicate that buyers have absorbed selling pressure and could open the path toward:
➡️ 65,800
➡️ 66,900 resistance
A breakout above the major resistance would restore bullish momentum.
📌 Trading Plan
✅ Wait for a pullback into the FVG/Order Block.
✅ Watch for bearish confirmation before entering short positions.
✅ Avoid chasing the current move after the sharp decline.
✅ Manage risk carefully with proper stop-loss placement above resistance.
🧠 Conclusion
The recent rejection from the upper resistance has shifted short-term momentum in favor of the bears. While a temporary recovery into the Fair Value Gap and Order Block remains likely, this area is expected to act as a strong selling zone. Unless buyers reclaim the resistance with convincing volume, the probability favors another bearish leg toward lower support levels.
📉 Overall Bias: Bearish Retracement → Pullback → Bearish Continuation 🔥 Short 
