Hello traders,
We have a potential Bat pattern completing if price can pull up to our level of entry @ 1.3262
This presents an opportunity to go short on this pair at a level of minor resistance.
Target 1 @ 1.3184
Target 2 @ 1.3135
SL @ 1.3328
Feel free to follow, like, share and comment
www.instagram.com
Technical analysis - highly bearish:
MA:
1. Just crossed the 2wk and 4wk MA - this is a bearish indication + we have been below the 3m MA for several weeks unsurprisingly since brexit.
IV/ HV:
1. Realised Vols have also unsurprisingly come off, this would but bullish but brexit has distorted the longer dated HV and they are lagging - Implied vols are...
Following today's Service/ Manufacturing PMI miss (worst contraction in 88 months - since 2009) the Sterling market has come under significant pressure as BOE rate cut expectations increase with OIS rates markets pricing a 94% chance of a 4th Aug cut vs 85% before the PMI's were released.
Further, the PMI misses has attracted attention from UK Politicians e.g....
On this currency pair, i am currently expecting a decent push higher off the lower trend channel support towards first target at 1.35 and next 1.3675. Keep a tight stop below 1.3200 and watch 1.3500 to lock in partial profits.
As expected in the morning update, pair suffered losses after having failed to sustain above 5-DMA. However, the losses were cut short at 1.2850 after news Andrea Leadsom quit Tory leadership race. Theresa May now looks set to be crowned Prime Minister.
Pair’s sharp reversal from 1.2850 has kept the bullish price-RSI divergence on the 4-hr chart intact and...
GBPUSD
- At the end of last week GU traded to lows of 1.32 on the brexit vote, before retracing substantially to 1.39 by the end of the day.
- GU retraced 600-700pips after the brexit event IMO solely as investors took profit from their shorts (which causes buying) - thus there was no structural reason for GU recovering e.g. it was that 1.32 had mispriced GU...
My view for next Quarter on GBPUSD.
If this Low made after Brexit holds (1.3226) , then we can have this scenario: Close of this Month/Quarter with a blue candle at around 1.4514, then a downtrend to around 1.2460. Next quarter High must be at around 1.4505 to this scenario works, however current month could go higher, but not to much. Around 1.2460 many things...
