Xiaomi: PullbackWithin the primarily ongoing upward wave, Xiaomi shares have recently experienced their first significant pullback, dropping nearly 18%. However, the stock is likely to resume its upward move soon, heading toward resistance at HK$36.50 and ultimately targeting the higher resistance at HK$58.70. Just below this level, we expect a brief interim correction, which should end above the HK$36.50 mark. From there, Xiaomi should continue to move higher, with the price likely reaching new highs. On the other hand, in our alternative scenario, it’s possible we could see an even deeper long-term bottom form below the HK$8.31 support (probability: 30%). 
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HS50: 8.5% in three weeks, Politburo just pledged action.Three weeks ago, the index stood at 23,988 despite an avalanche of bearish news that could have been considered a good reason to close any long position. The 50% US import tariff on copper was introduced for the companies related to EV and technology. China's PPI was reporting deflationary figures. The Strait of Hormuz was blocked. Nevertheless, the MACD histogram produced the largest green bar of the last few months and this indicator spoke the truth long before the price did. The primary target of 24,355 was achieved on July 10. The secondary target of 24,533 was completed on July 15. The operative target of 24,874 and the extended EMA 200 target of 25,113 were breached on July 16. And now, on July 30, the index reached 26,024, a profit of 8.5% in exactly three weeks since the initial entry level. The catalysts of the move are exactly what we have expected based on our updated articles: June's exports from China reported 27% y-o-y growth,the best result since October 2021, and it confirmed that tariff pressure did not break the external growth engine And then the Politburo in Beijing held its meeting yesterday and showed its most positive stance about the economy since the GDP miss in July 15th, promising to "implement proactive policies in a timely manner" without actually mentioning any policies but sending the policy message that markets have been expecting since the miss of 4.3% GDP growth in the second quarter below Beijing’s own floor target. Today, in the same day that the Politburo delivered its message, Hang Seng gained another 1.02%.
The new daily chart speaks to a recovery that is at the stage now where it must face the toughest question posed of it since July 9. What the price chart is showing now is that an index has not only crossed above the psychologically significant resistance area of 26,000, which was the initial target of this trade sequence, but it is now trading with the highest RSI level of 72.58 throughout the whole advance. That overbought condition is the first true technical alert on a chart that has been positive through all of its updates thus far. The fact that the RSI is at 72.58 and above its signal line of 62.19 confirms the strength of the buying force driving this advance. However, overbought at 26,000, in a market which has appreciated 8.5% in three weeks, where the Politburo has made a promise to do something without specifying details, is a combination that requires discipline not aggression. The MACD continues to give the most constructive interpretation of the chart. The MACD line is currently at 397.73 and it is much above the signal line at 211.28, while the histogram at 186.45 is printing large positive bars, the mark of a momentum trade that still has some life left. However, the histogram has started displaying deceleration marks, which happened prior to consolidation periods that the market experienced every time it reached another resistance level during this trend. The EMA configuration is still immaculately bullish:the EMA 9 and EMA 20 lines are moving in close formation below price, the MA cross of the 9 and 21 at 25,978 and 25,471 has been holding the entire rise without any serious challenge, and the price is trading above all three short-term averages. The structural bullish case is in place. The tactical question is whether 26,000 will become the next launchpad or the point of consolidation of exceptional gains.
Updated trade plan
Direction : Long;all original targets banked, manage the remainder with strict discipline
Status: Primary (24,355) ✓ Secondary (24,533) ✓ Operative (24,874) ✓ Extended (25,113) ✓all hit
New operative target : 26,500
Extended target : 27,044
Trailing stop : Move to 25,124
Key risk : Politburo pledged action but delivered no specifics today;concrete policy disappointment is the primary bear catalyst from here
Technical scenarios
Bullish extension;stimulus materialism :The timeline for Beijing's "timely" rollout shifts from rhetoric to reality, with definitive measures expected to surface within a fortnight to a month. The focus remains on interest rate reductions and RRR adjustments to counter the 18% slump in property investment and bolster domestic demand. Technically, a brief cooling of the RSI toward the 65 level would allow for a healthier ascent, maintaining positive MACD momentum toward a breach of the 26,500 resistance. Clearing that May peak targets the 27,044 chart high, potentially validating institutional year-end projections of 31,000 as serious market targets.
Technical reset; tactical pullback : An overbought RSI at 72.58 triggers a reversion toward the 60–65 zone as the index pauses at the 26,000 psychological threshold. This consolidation mirrors the established pattern of this three-week advance, where price digests gains without compromising the underlying structure. The MA Cross at 25,471–25,978 serves as the primary support floor, while the MACD histogram maintains its positive bias. This scenario represents market discipline rather than a trend reversal, with the trailing stop at 25,124 firmly in place to protect the 8.5% gains accrued since the July 9 entry.
Policy fatigue;the bear catalyst : The market begins to interpret the "timely" language of the Politburo as a stalling tactic rather than a firm pledge, renewing fears of policy ambiguity. If concrete fiscal or monetary actions fail to materialise within two weeks, the institutional flows that fueled the July recovery may start to exit. A breakdown of the RSI below 60 and a shift to negative MACD histogram bars would signal a loss of momentum, forcing a test of the trailing stop at 25,124 is the first line of defence. A daily close below that level signals the recovery has stalled and that profit protection rather than target extension is the correct posture.
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BAIDU: Bullish Breakout With 40% Upside PotentialHey Realistic Traders!
Baidu, one of China’s leading technology stocks, is starting to flash signals that point to significant upside potential. Rather than relying on hype, let’s turn to the chart and see whether the technical analysis support this bullish narrative.
Technical Analysis
On the daily timeframe, NASDAQ:BIDU has been trading consistently above the EMA200, indicating a well-established bullish trend. Within Wave 4 of this broader uptrend, Baidu formed a bullish flag pattern, a corrective structure that typically appears before trend continuation. A breakout from this pattern signals renewed bullish pressure and often marks the beginning of Wave 5 in Elliott Wave theory.
Notably, the most recent swing low has held above the upper trendline, reinforcing the bullish Wave 5 scenario. This move was further supported by a MACD bullish crossover, adding momentum confirmation. Based on this setup, we anticipate a move toward the first target at 149.50, with potential extension toward the Fibonacci projection near 181.25 , completing the bullish Wave 5. Minor pullbacks may occur along the way as part of a healthy trend progression.
This bullish wave count remains valid as long as price stays above 107.24. A move below this level would invalidate the Wave 5 structure and shift the outlook back to neutral.
Support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your thoughts in the comments below.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Baidu.
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BABA: when China allows growth againAlibaba remains one of the most undervalued mega-cap tech companies globally. After years of regulatory pressure and weak macro conditions in China, the company is entering a stabilization phase. Regulatory risks have eased, and Chinese authorities are signaling support for the technology sector and domestic consumption. Alibaba continues to generate strong cash flow, operates a massive ecosystem across e-commerce, cloud, and logistics, and actively executes share buybacks, reducing float. At current levels, the market is pricing in excessive pessimism, creating asymmetric upside if macro conditions improve.
From a technical perspective, price is trading inside a rising channel. After a strong impulse, the market moved into a corrective phase, forming a swing zone. Price remains above key EMA levels, confirming a valid medium-term uptrend. The current area represents a buyer interest zone aligned with structural support and Fibonacci levels. Declining volume during the pullback supports the idea of a healthy correction rather than trend reversal.
Trading plan: as long as price holds above the current support zone and confirmation appears, long positions become attractive. The first target is a return to previous highs, followed by Fibonacci extensions. Medium-term targets align with the upper boundary of the channel. A breakdown below the swing zone would invalidate the bullish scenario and signal deeper correction.
The best opportunities often appear when fear fades but confidence hasn’t returned yet. Long 
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Can Strong Fundamentals Survive Geopolitical Storms?JD.com presents a compelling paradox in modern investing: a company demonstrating robust operational performance while its stock remains volatile due to factors entirely beyond its control. Despite market speculation about decline, JD.com has shown impressive financial resilience with consistent revenue growth—15.8% in Q1 2025 and 22.4% in Q2 2025 - alongside improving operating margins that reached 4.5% for JD Retail in Q2 2025. The company has strategically invested over RMB 75 billion in R&D since 2017, building a sophisticated logistics network spanning over 3,600 warehouses and developing cutting-edge technologies that have reduced fulfillment costs to a world-leading 6.5%.
However, JD.com's strong fundamentals exist within a challenging ecosystem of domestic and international pressures. China's deflationary environment, with CPI rising only 0.2% in 2024, has created subdued consumer demand, while intensifying competition from disruptors like Pinduoduo has reshaped the e-commerce landscape. Rather than engaging in destructive price wars, JD.com has pivoted toward sustainable profitability, leveraging its premium brand reputation and proprietary logistics network as key differentiators in an increasingly crowded market.
The most significant risk facing JD.com - and all US-listed Chinese companies- is geopolitical uncertainty rather than operational weakness. US-China trade tensions, regulatory crackdowns in both countries, and the specter of potential Taiwan conflict scenarios create unprecedented risks for investors. A hypothetical Taiwan invasion could trigger catastrophic sanctions, including SWIFT banking exclusions and forced delistings, potentially rendering these stocks worthless regardless of their underlying business strength. This analysis reveals that Bloomberg Economics estimates such a conflict would cost the global economy $10 trillion, with Chinese companies facing existential threats to their international operations.
The JD.com case study ultimately illustrates a new reality in global investing: traditional financial analysis focusing on revenue growth and operational efficiency may be insufficient when evaluating companies operating across geopolitical fault lines. While JD.com remains operationally strong with clear competitive advantages, investors must recognize they are essentially placing bets on US-China diplomatic stability rather than just corporate performance. This political risk premium fundamentally changes the investment equation.
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JD.cm | JD | Long at $33.16Like Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN and Alibaba NYSE:BABA , I suspect AI and robotics will enhance JD.com's NASDAQ:JD automation in warehousing, delivery, and retail. There is some risk here, like other Chinese stocks, that they could be delisted from the US market if trade/war tensions rise. But I just don't think that is likely (no matter the threats) due to the importance of worldwide trade and investment. I could be way wrong, though...
NASDAQ:JD has a current P/E of 8.1x and a forward P/E of 1.2x, which indicates strong earnings growth ahead. The company is healthy, with a debt-to-equity of 0.4x, Altmans Z Score of 2.6, and a Quick Ratio of .9 (could be better).
From a technical analysis perspective, the historical simple moving average (SMA) band is still in an overall downtrend but starting to level out (accumulation of share area). It is possible, however, that the price may drop into the $20s to close out the existing price gaps on the daily chart as tariff threats arise. But that area is another personal entry zone if fundamentals hold.
Thus, while it could be a bumpy ride and the risk is there for delisting, NASDAQ:JD is in a personal buy zone at $33.16 (with known risk of drop to the $20s in the near-term).
Targets into 2028:
$44.00 (+32.7%)
$52.00 (+56.8%)
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