Dutch Bros Stock Just Fell Into Support—Is BROS Finally a Buy?Another HUMAN-written article today, so I hope you enjoy the read!
Before we look at Dutch Bros, let’s be honest about something.
The market can do whatever it wants, whenever it wants. It does not have to obey the imaginary rules or lines we draw on a chart—even if those lines give our lizard brains just enough confidence to enter a position.
Support zones are not concrete floors. Resistance levels are not brick walls. They are simply areas where buyers or sellers have shown interest before.
That means this article is not a prediction. It is a way of looking at the information in front of us, planning for several possible outcomes, and deciding whether the opportunity makes sense for our own portfolios.
With that said, let’s talk about Dutch Bros.
Dutch BROS is another fast growing drive thru coffee place that i have noticed expanding rapidly on the west coast!
They reported a really strong and healthy quarter. Long story short without getting into all the financial details, but sales increased, profits grew, and more shops opened. Even with those positive results BROS stock fell sharply from around $70 to $50
So why in the world would a stock fall if the company is doing so well? The answer is that a stock market does not only care whether a company is growing. It only cares about how much investors are paying for that growth.
The GOOD NEWS!
These numbers tell us the company is still growing quickly. The current locations are selling more, more customers are coming back for that delicious Golden Eagle Coffee and Dutch BROS continue to open new shops.
This does not sound like a company whose business is falling apart! The market is trying to find the price that they want to participate in!
When a stock has a high price compared with its profits, the company must continue beating high expectations. A good quarter may not be enough. Investors want an outstanding quarter and a strong future outlook.
Bullish outcome
Buyers defend the $44–$47 support zone. The stock then moves back above $52 and begins recovering.
If that happens, the next areas to watch would be approximately $58–$60 and then $67–$71.
Sideways outcome
BROS trades between approximately $45 and $52 for several weeks.
This would allow the stock to calm down and create a stronger base. A period of sideways movement could be healthier than an immediate rally.
Bearish outcome
The stock closes a week below approximately $43 and cannot recover.
That would suggest the support zone failed. The next possible stopping area could be around $38–$40, followed by the larger support zone near $27–$31.
Dutch BROS is a good company whose stock became expensive, and now we are watching to see whether and important support zone can hold.
Happy Trading my friends! 
Long
Short
Long 
Coffee price continues to maintain a bearish biasSince the beginning of the month, coffee has maintained a consistent short-term bearish bias, accumulating a decline of more than 4.00% in its price.
The selling pressure, which has already extended over several weeks of trading, remains mainly driven by expectations of a larger coffee harvest in Brazil for the 2026–2027 period, with the season officially beginning in July. This production is estimated to grow by around 11.5% compared to the previous season, supported by favorable weather conditions, according to data from the Coffee Trading Academy.
This event is relevant considering that Brazil remains the world’s largest coffee producer, accounting for approximately 35% of global production. In this context, an improvement in harvests could generate a significant increase in global supply over the coming months.
This has started to raise concerns about a potential imbalance between supply and demand, as production growth may not be matched by demand at the same pace. As a result, expectations of higher production have become the main fundamental catalyst behind the bearish pressure seen in coffee prices, and as long as this outlook remains in place, the selling bias is likely to remain relevant in the short term.
The bearish trend remains the relevant pattern: Since October 2025, coffee has developed a structure of lower highs, which has led to the formation of a long-term bearish trendline in the price.
So far, no significant bullish correction has emerged to threaten this structure, meaning this pattern remains the main technical reference that could continue to influence price movements over the coming weeks.
RSI: The RSI currently remains below the neutral 50 level, suggesting that the average short-term momentum continues to reflect a selling bias.
As long as this behavior remains in place, bearish pressure may continue to dominate coffee price action in the coming sessions.
MACD: The MACD shows a similar dynamic, with the histogram holding below the 0 level, indicating that short-term moving average strength also reflects a relevant bearish bias.
If this behavior persists, it could continue to support the continuation of selling pressure in coffee prices in the short term.
Key levels to watch:
31,685 – Relevant resistance: A recent high level located above the long-term bearish trendline. Price movements that manage to break above this area could confirm the emergence of a more relevant bullish bias and even open the door to the formation of a short-term uptrend.
30,273 – Near-term barrier: A reference level located around the bearish trendline and close to the 50-period moving average. Moves above this level could start to put the dominant bearish structure at risk and give way to a more consistent bullish bias in the coming sessions.
27,024 – Key support: A 2026 low that acts as the main downside barrier. Price movements below this area would reaffirm the dominance of the selling bias and could lead to an extension of the bearish trend in the coming weeks.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst 
Long
Long 
Technical analysis April 13: Robusta established the Bear Trap aThe market recorded an extremely strong withdrawal reaction (Hammer) at the support area of 3,273, neutralizing the Sellers' attempt to break out. Short-term trend turns positive; Trading tends to prioritize opening a Buy position when the price regains the 3,325 mark towards the target of 3,480.
1. Review previous session recommendations
Short position at 3,310 towards 3,137 has reached the short-term profit target when the price hits the lowest at 3,249. However, the price action reversed quickly at the end of the session, causing the deep decline scenario to be interrupted. Currently, all Short orders have been settled at breakeven point or slight profit. The explosion of Arabica (+2.18%) in the past session has completely changed the context, turning the decline of Robusta into a decline before increasing again.
2. Overview of trends & price structure
Robusta is showing signs of forming a short-term bottom after failing to test the lower boundary of the medium-term falling price channel. Although the following peak structure is lower than the previous peak is still present on the daily chart, the appearance of a withdrawal candle at the 3,249 area right after Arabica broke out shows that the inter-market divergence is gradually narrowing. The current market phase is shifting from a reduction push to a re-accumulation phase with the foundation being a bearish price trap around the 3,325 threshold. The logic of the chart reflects the exhaustion of forced supply; When the Sellers are no longer able to push the price deeper despite negative technical signals, the market will often react with a strong recovery to seek higher liquidity at the resistance levels above.
2. Technical prices
Resistance: 3330 – 3480 – 3800
Support: 3273 – 3249 – 3137
3. Detailed technical analysis
The candle on April 10 closed as a Hammer with a long lower shadow, confirming extremely strong bottom-catching demand at 3,249. Data correlation: Price withdrew + Low volume (5.02K) + OI decreased (22.16K) → Market lost interest. In this context, the decrease in OI accompanied by the withdrawal candle confirms that the Sellers have completed their profit-taking behavior (Short Covering) and are no longer interested in pushing the price down. VPA signal confirms supply depletion at low price range; The current market is very "light" and can easily explode if there is a small demand force at the beginning of the next session.
Hedge funds are in a state of skepticism after being caught off guard by the previous trading session. Market sentiment changed from pessimism to positive caution as the pressure of heavy rain in Brazil began to permeate. Traders have stopped defensive selling activities at the 3,250 zone and are showing signs of starting to buy (Long Hedge) to counterbalance logistics risks, creating a solid price cushion that leaves the Sellers with no chance of winning in the short term.
The series of gradually lower lows was interrupted by a pullback at 3,249. Structural analysis shows that the bearish wave (Z) is likely to be truncated as it cannot reach the target of 3,137. Instead, the price is creating a recovery wave toward the upper border of the price channel at 3,480. The current price position is right next to the rotation mark of 3,325; A close above this mark will confirm the complete Fakeout pattern. The recovery structure will only be disabled if the price turns around and closes decisively below 3,240.
4. Next session's trading scenario
Scenario 1 (65%): Price breaks out past the previous session's high of 3330 and closes stably above this range.
Action: Open a Buy position (TP: 3480. SL: 3240); Background: Confirmation of Bear Trap and Resonant Recovery Rhythm from Arabica Floor.
Scenario 2 (35%): Price faces pressure at 3330 and returns to accumulate in the 3273 – 3310 area.
Action: Stand aside and wait for the Engulfing candlestick signal at support 3273; Basis: Buyers need more time to accumulate demand after the shakeout.
5. Recommendations by subject
Manufacturers/exporters: Temporarily stop all selling at this low price. Patiently wait for the price to recover close to the resistance of 3,480 to establish Short Hedge positions with better profit margins. Long 
ROBUSTA SETS DOUBLE BOTTOM – ANTICIPATING BEARISH CHANNEL BREAKOKEY TAKEAWAYS:
Price structure confirms a major support zone at the 3,400 level, forming a potential Double Bottom pattern.
Prices are currently approaching the upper trendline of a descending channel that has persisted since late 2025.
Wave projection forecasts a powerful breakout phase that could return Robusta to historical peaks around 6,000.
Date: March 26, 2026 | Timeframe: Daily (1D) | Contract Code: RC1! (Robusta Coffee)
1. Trend and Price Structure Overview
Following a deep correction from the 2025 highs, Robusta moved into a descending channel characterized by accumulation. However, recent price behavior at the 3,400 level indicates that demand is beginning to fully overwhelm supply. The price structure is shifting from a bearish state to base-building, preparing for a new growth cycle.
2. Notable Technical Price Levels
Target Resistance 1: 4,200 (Recent swing high).
Target Resistance 2: 4,800 (Medium-term strong supply zone).
Long-term Target: 6,000.
Key Support: 3,400 (Critical psychological and technical floor).
Hard Support: 3,200.
3. Detailed Technical Analysis
3.1 Market Sentiment and Fund Flows
Market sentiment is gradually emerging from a state of panic. Smart Money shows signs of persistent accumulation in the 3,400 - 3,600 area. The buyers' resilience at the lower support indicates that expectations of a global supply deficit remain the primary market driver.
3.2 Price Action
At the current price of 3,629, the market is attempting to break free from the pressure of the descending trendline. The appearance of long lower wicks around the 3,400 zone confirms that bulls are betting heavily on defending this baseline. A daily close above 3,800 in the coming sessions would clearly confirm the reversal signal.
3.3 Wave Structure
Based on the projected wave scenario on the chart:
Robusta is in the final stages of its corrective move and is preparing to enter a growth wave (Phase C - Markup).
After breaking out of the channel, the price is expected to see volatility and consolidation around 4,200 and 4,800 before heading toward the ambitious 6,000 target.
This is a steep upward wave structure, reflecting strong future buying pressure.
4. Strategic Perspective
An opportunity for bottom accumulation is emerging at the medium-term floor. Priority should be given to long-term position trading (Long). Strictly avoid selling into the hole at these levels, as the Risk/Reward ratio is heavily skewed in favor of the buyers.
5. Technical Trading Scenarios
(Refencing previous strategy: In earlier sessions, price remained capped by the trendline; today the candle structure has significantly improved).
Old Strategy Evaluation: Speculative positions entered near 3,400 are in slight profit. Maintain holdings.
Session Plan:
Scenario 1 (New Buy): Accumulate in the 3,600 - 3,630 range, with an absolute Stop Loss below 3,350. Short-term target: 4,200.
Scenario 2 (Add-on): Increase position size once the price decisively breaks the descending channel (clearing the 3,850 mark) with a spike in liquidity.
6. Recommendation for Businesses
For exporters, importers, and roasters, the 3,400 - 3,600 price range represents a rare window to lock in hedging contracts for the second half of 2026. The current price structure suggests a high risk of "skyrocketing" if weather or logistics news turns negative. Businesses should proactively secure physical stocks at these levels rather than waiting for lower, unlikely targets. Long 
Coffee fails to break out of its indecision biasOver the last four trading sessions, coffee prices have recorded average fluctuations of around 2.5%, a relatively low figure compared with previous weeks when price movements could reach as much as 5% per day. For now, this behavior has begun to highlight a consistent indecision bias in short-term price movements.
Despite the fact that recent sessions have been marked by a strong season of rains and flooding in Minas Gerais, the main coffee-producing state in Brazil, the market has not reacted with particularly strong bullish pressure. This is noteworthy considering that Brazil produces around 35% of the world’s coffee and that persistent rainfall could potentially generate supply disruptions. However, this recent weather event has largely been interpreted by the market as temporary and unlikely to significantly affect production in 2026. In fact, previous forecasts suggest that production may stabilize during the current year. As a result, although the weather conditions have led to a slight increase in coffee prices in the short term, the market continues to display a consistent indecision bias near the lows observed in 2026. In this context, this phase of indecision may remain relevant during the coming trading sessions unless weather developments begin to point toward a more meaningful disruption in production over the following weeks.
Bearish trend remains highly dominant:
Despite recent recovery attempts in coffee prices, bullish movements remain insufficient to trigger a clear break above the long-standing bearish trend line that has been in place since October 2025. For this reason, this technical pattern continues to be the most relevant element currently visible on the chart. If selling pressure re-emerges during the coming sessions, it could extend this trend line further, reinforcing the bearish structure that has dominated the market over the past several months. In this scenario, a much stronger recovery would be required to eliminate the strong long-term selling bias that continues to influence coffee price movements.
RSI: The RSI indicator is currently hovering very close to the neutral 50 level. This behavior suggests that there is a relatively balanced dynamic between bullish and bearish forces over the past 14 trading sessions. If this pattern continues, it could point to sustained neutrality in price action and reinforce the phase of indecision that has begun to characterize the market in recent sessions.
MACD: A similar situation can be observed in the MACD indicator, as its histogram remains very close to the neutral 0 line. This suggests that the strength of short-term moving averages is currently in neutral territory, which also contributes to the lack of a clear directional bias in coffee prices in the short term.
Key levels to watch:
33.443: Major resistance. This level corresponds to a previous neutrality barrier observed in earlier weeks and stands above the current bearish trend line. Price movements reaching this level could open the door to a more meaningful shift in market dynamics, potentially allowing bullish pressure to take control and even leading to the formation of a new upward trend line in the coming weeks.
30.704: Near-term resistance that corresponds to highs observed in July 2025. This level also aligns with the 50-period simple moving average and the long-term bearish trend line. Price movements that manage to break above this barrier could end the current neutrality bias and begin to challenge the broader bearish structure that has dominated the market in recent months, potentially giving way to stronger bullish pressure in upcoming sessions.
27.935: Relevant support level corresponding to the lows recorded in 2026 and standing as the most important bearish barrier in the short term. Price movements that fall below this level could reactivate meaningful selling pressure and lead to a further extension of the long-term bearish trend that has dominated the coffee market in recent months.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst Coffee Prices Return to Levels Not Seen Since Mid-2025Coffee prices have been under significant pressure in recent weeks. Since the last bullish peak in late January 2026, near the 36,000 level, prices have declined by more than 20%, bringing the market back toward the 28,000 area — levels not seen since mid-2025.
The sustained selling pressure is largely driven by improved supply expectations. Last year, persistent drought conditions significantly limited production in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, accounting for roughly 35%–40% of global output.
However, improved rainfall forecasts in Brazil have begun to reduce the weather risk premium, with better production conditions expected for the 2026 and 2027 harvests. This shift toward a more robust supply outlook has weighed on prices. Additionally, the change in expectations may have triggered institutional liquidation of positions accumulated in previous months. If the improved production outlook holds, selling pressure could remain relevant in the coming sessions.
A New Downtrend Gains Relevance
Since late October 2025, coffee price action has formed a medium-term descending trendline, consolidating a dominant bearish bias in the market.
The price is now approaching key levels not seen since mid-2025. If selling pressure remains consistent, the current downtrend could intensify, potentially leading to more aggressive short-term downside movements.
RSI
The RSI is no longer signaling extreme oversold conditions but continues to trade below the neutral 50 level. This suggests that average momentum over the past 14 sessions remains tilted to the downside. As long as this dynamic persists, bearish pressure is likely to remain dominant in the short term.
MACD
In contrast, the MACD histogram remains close to the zero line, reflecting equilibrium in short-term moving average momentum. This indicates the absence of a strong directional force and leaves room for potential technical corrective rebounds in the coming sessions. However, any such rebounds currently appear insufficient to reverse the broader bearish trend.
Key Levels to Watch
32,444 – Major resistance: This level aligns with the 50-period simple moving average and the descending trendline. Sustained bullish moves toward this area could challenge the current bearish structure and open the door for a short-term buying bias.
30,704 – Near-term barrier: A relevant neutrality zone that may act as a reference level in the event of short-term corrective rallies.
27,935 – Key support: A level not seen since July 2025 and currently the most important downside barrier. A sustained break below this area could reinforce the continuation of the prevailing downtrend and confirm a dominant bearish bias in the medium term.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst COFFEE | HMA Support Holds | Bullish Breakout Imminent🎯 COFFEE CFD: The Double-Bottom Espresso Shot Setup ☕💰
📊 Market Overview
Asset: COFFEE (Commodities CFD)
Strategy Type: Swing/Day Trade - Cash Flow Management
Bias: 🟢 BULLISH
Timeframe: 2h
🔍 The Setup - Why This Brew is About to Percolate
Alright coffee addicts and chart nerds, let's break down this caffeinated opportunity! ☕⚡
Technical Confirmation:
🎯 Hull Moving Average (HMA) is acting as our dynamic support level
📍 Double Bottom Formation confirmed after price retested the HMA support TWICE
🔥 Buyers stepped in aggressively at the dynamic support zone, confirming bullish momentum
📈 The trend reversal is LOCKED IN - bulls are taking control
This isn't your average coffee break setup - we've got a textbook double-bottom pattern forming right on our dynamic HMA support. Price knocked twice, buyers answered both times. You know what that means? It's go time! 🚀
💎 Entry Strategy - The "Thief" Layered Approach
Primary Entry Signal:
✅ Breakout Confirmation: Wait for price to breach and CLOSE above @385 resistance zone
⚠️ IMPORTANT: Set your price alerts at 385 on your trading platform so you don't miss this breakout! TradingView, MT4, MT5 - whatever you use, SET THAT ALARM! ⏰
🎯 Layered Entry Zones (Scaling In):
This is the "Thief OG" method - you can choose ANY of these levels post-breakout:
Layer 1: 360
Layer 2: 365
Layer 3: 370
Layer 4: 375
Layer 5: 380
Pro Tip: You don't have to enter all at once! Scale in as price confirms momentum. Buy the dip, catch the rip! 🎢
🛑 Risk Management
Stop Loss: @350
Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:2 (Solid setup! 💪)
📢 Disclaimer Note:
Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG's) - This SL is MY personal level. YOU control YOUR money, YOUR risk. Adjust according to your account size and risk tolerance. Trade smart, not hard! 🧠💰
🎯 Profit Targets - Know When to Take Your Coffee to Go
Target Zone: @420 🎯
Why 420?
Strong historical resistance level
Overbought conditions likely
Potential bull trap zone - don't get greedy!
💡 Strategy: Scale OUT just like you scaled IN. Take profits along the way. Lock in gains before the market locks YOU out! 🔒💵
📢 Disclaimer Note:
Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG's) - This TP is MY personal target. YOU control YOUR profits. If you're in the green, secure your bag at your own discretion. Nobody ever went broke taking profits! 💰✨
📈 Correlated Pairs to Watch
Keep an eye on these related markets - they move together like coffee and cream ☕🥛
PEPPERSTONE:SUGAR (SB1!) - Commodity correlation
ASX:BRL (Brazilian Real) - Brazil = #1 coffee producer, currency strength matters
PEPPERSTONE:COCOA (CC1!) - Soft commodities sector correlation
DXY (US Dollar Index) - Inverse relationship; weaker dollar = stronger commodities
Key Point: If sugar and cocoa are rallying, coffee usually follows the party! Also, watch weather reports from Brazil - drought conditions = bullish coffee prices. ☀️🌧️
⚡ Key Takeaways
✅ Double-bottom pattern confirmed on HMA dynamic support
✅ Bullish momentum building
✅ Wait for 385 breakout confirmation
✅ Layer entries between 360-380
✅ Manage risk with SL @350
✅ Secure profits near 420 resistance
✅ Watch correlated pairs for confirmation
🎭 The "Thief Style" Philosophy
This is the Thief OG strategy - we steal opportunities from the market like a caffeinated ninja!
This analysis is for educational and entertainment purposes. We're here to learn, laugh, and hopefully make some money along the way!
Remember: The market doesn't care about your feelings. Stick to YOUR plan, manage YOUR risk, and protect YOUR capital. This is a game of probabilities, not certainties!
✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!
#Coffee #CommoditiesTrading #CFDTrading #SwingTrading #DayTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #DoubleBottom #HullMovingAverage #HMA #Breakout #BullishSetup #TradingStrategy #PriceAction #SupportAndResistance #RiskManagement #ThiefStyle #CoffeeMarket #CommodityTrading #TradingIdeas #ChartAnalysis #ForexCorrelation #SoftCommodities Long 
Analysis Techniques – Arabica Coffee Futures (Dec 2025)Analysis Techniques – Arabica Coffee Futures (Dec 2025)
Date: October 23, 2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: ICEUS KCZ25
1. Trend Overview and Price Structure
December 2025 Arabica coffee futures continued to rally strongly, up +2.18% to 423.95 cents/lb, marking the sixth consecutive session of gains and returning to the highest level since early May 2025.
The current technical setup shows clear bullish momentum following a two-week consolidation between 380–400 cents.
If momentum persists, prices could advance toward the strategic resistance zone at 450 cents/lb, corresponding to the March 2025 swing high.
Short-term trend: Strongly bullish – continuing wave (3) within a broader recovery cycle.
2. Key Technical Price Levels
Resistance: 424 – 450 – 480
Support: 388 – 351 – 316
3. Detailed Technical Analysis
(1) Short-Term Trend:
Price has broken above the 400–410 resistance zone and is now aiming for the 450 target area.
A clear horizontal accumulation breakout pattern has formed, signaling that buyers are fully in control of the market.
(2) Trading Volume:
Volume has expanded alongside rising prices over the past week, confirming renewed speculative and commercial participation.
Managed money funds are likely rebuilding net-long positions after September’s liquidation phase.
(3) Wave Structure:
According to Elliott Wave Theory, Arabica is in wave (3) of a bullish sequence that began from the 316.50 low in July 2025.
Wave (1): 316 → 388
Wave (2): correction to 351
Wave (3): currently targeting 450–455, the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
(4) Confirmation Signals:
Price broke above the accumulation range with long-bodied bullish candles, showing no signs of distribution.
Short-term EMAs (12–36) are expanding upward, confirming strong momentum.
Breakout volume exceeded the 20-session average, validating the move.
4. Strategic View – VNC
According to Bloomberg Intelligence, Arabica’s sharp rally through October has been driven by three fundamental catalysts:
1. Short-Term Supply Tightness in Brazil:
September exports fell nearly 11% year-on-year, as dry weather slowed harvest progress.
ICE-certified stocks dropped sharply, reaching the lowest level in 18 months.
2. Renewed Speculative Flows:
Commodity funds have rotated back into soft commodities (coffee, cocoa, sugar) as the energy complex corrected.
The Arabica-to-Robusta net-long ratio has risen to 1.4x, its highest since April.
3. Stable Consumption Demand:
Roasters in Europe and the U.S. have increased stockpiling ahead of the winter season.
The slightly weaker Brazilian real (5.52 BRL/USD) has discouraged farmer selling, tightening near-term supply.
VNC expects bullish momentum to persist in the short term, with 450 cents/lb as a medium-term target. However, profit-taking or a rebound in the real could trigger corrective pullbacks near 460–470 cents/lb.
5. Suggested Technical Strategies
Primary Long Scenario (Trend-Following):
Entry: 415 – 420
TP1: 450
TP2: 465
SL: 404
Probability: 75%
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.8
Alternative Short Scenario (Rejection at 450 Resistance):
Entry: 448 – 452
TP: 388
SL: 460
Probability: 25%
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:3
6. Corporate Hedging Strategies
For Arabica Exporters (Brazil, Colombia):
Increase forward price fixation around 440–450 cents/lb, as prices approach strong resistance.
Utilize options collars to protect profit margins in case of a near-term correction.
For Importers and Roasters (EU, U.S., Vietnam):
Consider early hedging in the 400–420 zone to lock in costs before a potential breakout above 450.
If prices reach 450–460, consider unwinding older hedges to maintain a neutral exposure.
For Commercial Traders:
Maintain medium-term long positions, targeting 450–455 for partial profit-taking.
A confirmed breakout above this zone could open the path toward 480–500 cents/lb. Long 
Analysis Techniques – Robusta Coffee Futures (Nov 2025)Analysis Techniques – Robusta Coffee Futures (Nov 2025)
Date: October 23, 2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: ICEEU XRX25
1. Trend Overview and Price Structure
November 2025 Robusta coffee futures surged +2.70% to USD 4,750/ton, marking a clear breakout from a descending triangle accumulation pattern that had persisted since September.
This session confirms a technical breakout, lifting prices above the key 4,700 resistance zone and opening the path toward a medium-term upside target of 5,300–5,560 USD/ton.
The short-term trend has shifted decisively from consolidation to bullish continuation, supported by a stable higher-lows structure established since August 2025.
2. Key Technical Price Levels
Resistance: 4,986 – 5,300 – 5,561
Support: 4,303 – 4,050 – 3,696
3. Detailed Technical Analysis
(1) Short-Term Trend:
After consolidating between 4,300–4,500, Robusta broke above its descending trendline, confirming a bullish reversal.
The measured move projection, based on the triangle’s height (~USD 930), suggests a potential advance toward 5,550 USD/ton, equivalent to a 20% price increase.
(2) Trading Volume:
Volume expanded sharply during the breakout sessions, signaling renewed participation from both speculative and commercial traders after a prolonged Q3 correction.
(3) Wave Structure:
According to Elliott Wave Theory, prices are progressing within wave (3) of a bullish cycle, targeting 5,300–5,560 USD, where a confluence exists between the April swing high and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension zone.
A breakout above 5,560 would confirm further upside potential toward 5,800–6,000 USD in Q4 2025.
(4) Confirmation Signals:
Breakout above the descending trendline from June.
Strong bullish candles closing above the entire short-term resistance range.
Momentum and volume confirm active buying pressure (bullish momentum).
4. Strategic View – Bloomberg Intelligence
According to VNC, Robusta’s sharp recovery in the second half of October is driven by a combination of three key factors:
1. Tight Supply from Vietnam and Indonesia:
ICE Europe reported Robusta inventories falling to their lowest level since 2016.
Vietnam’s September exports dropped over 20% year-on-year, as farmers delayed sales in anticipation of higher prices.
2. Steady Demand from Europe and the U.S.:
European roasters have increased stockpiling ahead of the year-end consumption season.
The strengthening euro against the dollar has improved purchasing power for European buyers.
3. Spillover from the Arabica Market:
Arabica prices have rallied above 410 cents/lb, creating a positive contagion effect across the broader coffee complex.
The Arabica/Robusta price ratio (A/R spread) has normalized around 1.35x, allowing further upside in Robusta without triggering substitution pressures.
VNC notes that the 4,300–4,500 zone now serves as a solid price base, with 5,300–5,560 as an achievable target for November—provided the Brazilian real remains stable and speculative inflows continue.
5. Suggested Technical Strategies
Primary Long Scenario (Trend-Following):
Entry: 4,650 – 4,720
TP1: 5,300
TP2: 5,560
SL: 4,460
Probability: 75%
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:3
Alternative Short Scenario (Rejection at High Resistance):
Entry: 5,550 – 5,600
TP: 4,950
SL: 5,720
Probability: 25%
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2
6. Corporate Hedging Strategies
For Coffee Exporters:
Increase forward sales coverage in the 4,750–5,000 zone as global prices have strongly recovered and the domestic basis has narrowed.
Consider partial hedging for December–January delivery contracts to protect profit margins.
For Importers (Roasters & FMCG Companies):
Consider partial hedging on dips near 4,400–4,500, focusing on Q1 2026 deliveries, to secure supply amid continued market volatility.
For Commercial Investors:
Maintain medium-term long positions targeting 5,300–5,560.
A confirmed break above 5,560 could justify expanding long exposure toward 5,800–6,000 USD. Long 
Long 
Long 
Analysis techniques – Robusta Coffee Futures (Nov 2025)Analysis techniques – Robusta Coffee Futures (Nov 2025)
Date: Oct 06, 2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: LRCX25
1. Trend Overview and Price Structure
November Robusta coffee surged to USD 4,528/ton (+4.65%), extending its rebound from the 4,020 – 4,305 support zone.
The price pattern is shaping a falling wedge, a potential reversal setup if the upper boundary near 4,600 – 4,650 breaks.
Medium term, the market is transitioning from a downtrend into a consolidation-recovery phase, targeting 4,926 – 5,646 once resistance breaks.
2. Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 4,650 – 4,926 – 5,646
Support: 4,305 – 4,020 – 3,628
3. Detailed Technical Analysis
(1) Short-term Trend:
The current rally is a corrective move after September’s decline. Holding above 4,305 shows renewed buying strength, supported by a breakout through the descending trendline.
(2) Volume:
Volume expansion during Oct 4–5 sessions indicates active technical buying and bullish participation.
(3) Wave Structure:
Price appears to be forming a wave 3 recovery leg. If the move extends, theoretical targets lie around 4,926 – 5,646.
(4) Confirmation Signals:
A daily close above 4,650 confirms wedge breakout; a break below 4,305 would risk a pullback toward 4,020.
4. Bloomberg Intelligence Strategic View
Short Term: Technical rebound supported by tight ICE inventories and speculative buying in Robusta.
Medium Term: Heavy rains in Vietnam’s Central Highlands and Brazil’s Minas Gerais may improve 2025/26 output, yet Indonesia’s weak supply continues to underpin prices.
Key Risk: A stronger USD or weaker BRL could trigger producer hedging and limit upside momentum.
5. Suggested Technical Strategies
Preferred Long Setup:
Entry: 4,450 – 4,520
TP: 4,926 – 5,646
SL: 4,305
Probability: 65%
Counter-trend Short Setup:
Entry: 4,900 – 4,950
TP: 4,305 – 4,020
SL: 5,000
Probability: 40%
6. Corporate Hedging Guidance
Exporters: Consider forward sales around 4,900 – 5,000 to secure short-term profits.
Roasters/importers: Hedge near 4,400 – 4,500 to mitigate upside exposure in case of a breakout above 4,926. Long 
Analysis techniques – Robusta Coffee Futures (Nov 2025)Date: 30/09/2025 | Timeframe: H1 | Contract Code: LRCX25
1. Trend Overview and Price Structure
The Robusta market is weakening after failing to hold the 4,200 USD/ton support. The overall bias is bearish as prices trade below long-term averages, forming a distribution pattern on the H1 chart.
2. Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 4,305 – 4,500 – 4,926
Support: 4,020 – 3,628 – 3,145
3. Detailed Technical Analysis
Short-term trend: Breakdown below 4,150 suggests continuation of the downtrend.
Volume: Increasing volumes during sell-offs confirm selling pressure dominance.
Wave structure: Currently in the second impulse wave down, targeting 3,600–3,650.
Confirmation signals: Bearish crossovers among moving averages reinforce downside momentum.
4. VNC Intelligence Strategic View
Short-term bearish momentum dominates as the market fails to reclaim 4,305 resistance. Mid-term fundamentals remain weak, with steady supply from Vietnam and Brazil adding to pressure.
5. Suggested Technical Strategies
Short setup (trend-following):
Entry: 4,150–4,200
TP: 3,630
SL: 4,310
Probability: High
Counter-trend Long setup:
Entry: 4,000–4,020
TP: 4,300
SL: 3,880
Probability: Low – tactical rebound trade only.
6. Corporate Hedging Guidance
Importers may consider hedging short-term positions to benefit from the downtrend. Exporters should avoid premature short sales, maintaining flexible forward contracts in case of a rebound near 4,000. Short 
Long 
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